Opening Day is here, the offseason is officially over. Now what? In an effort to avoid long winded descriptions of what the Royals need to do to win, or post a rally the troops piece about how the team is finally READY, we here at the PBR want to read the tea leaves for the future of the 2014 Royals by setting the Over/Under bets that will determine the success of this season. Lets get right into it, the season is about to begin:
James Shields Runs given up on Opening Day +/-3: If Shields goes out and scatters three runs over six innings nobody will read much into that. However if he goes seven, gives up two runs and wins the game versus Justin Verlander then we can automatically assume the division is there for the taking and the youthful Royals will outlast the DL-prone Tigers to win the Division. In contrast, if he can't make it out of the fifth and gives up a handful of runs, the season is over and the Royals better start talking about 2015!
Omar Infante/Jason Vargas DL stints +/- 2: Instead of trying to make a semi-big offseason move the Royals tried the 2-for-1 30 something special by landing an aging 2B and a 4th starter. Thus the only way these two have value is in them actually playing and not sucking. That is being more competent than Chris Getz and Kyle Davis-Luke Hochevar-Wade Davis; tough acts to follow. So if these two amass anywhere near 30-50 days on the DL on the front end of their awkward four year contracts then go full steam ahead on the second guessing Dayton Moore bandwagon.
Hosmer RBIs +/-99: We are purposefully going anti-sabermetric here because this stat will actually tell us about players other than just Hosmer. First, you have to be good to get 100 RBIs, you need to hit for some pop and this means that you actually played the whole season. Second you need players on in front of you, so with Infante and Aoki FIRMLY entrenched in the 1-2 spots in the order this number would lead us to believe that they are both having career years and Hos is getting them home often. Third, this means that whomever is hitting behind you is also having a good year and you aren't being walked all the time. So by extension this means that Billy Butler is hitting like the best version of previous Billy Butler years (last years walks, 2012 HRs and 2009-11 2Bs), i.e. KC's David Ortiz. And finally, it means that the Royals are actually scoring RUNS. After finishing near the bottom last year this would seem to be the missing ingredient when thinking about getting to 90+ wins.
Guthrie/Chen ERAs +/- 5.00: This is a very generous number, realistically we probably could have put it closer to 4.5, but the PBR feels that the likelihood of one of these two putting up a +5.00 ERA is pretty high. In which case, they would be wasting a roster spot and replaced by the equally sketchy duo of Wade Davis or Danny Duffy. Also, it means that the Royals got shelled in some early season games and probably aren't getting off to the hot start they need to make it to the playoffs. Given Moore and Yostie's tendencies to stick with things too long, this would be a bad sign.
Alex Gordon HRs +/-25: I'm betting big here. Alex needs to settle into that OBP/Power guy we have been waiting to see for so long. First he blamed it on playing 3B, then he blamed it on hitting leadoff, now he needs to not worry about anything other than hitting 25 HRs.
Yordono Ventura innings +/-160: I hesitated to put this one out there, but really it is so obvious that it can't be repeated enough: "If the Royals are going to be good this year, they need a breakout performance from Ventura." There we said it too. If he goes under the 160 number, he has most likely lost his control at some point during the season, hit the DL for a hurty elbow, or failed in any one of twenty other ways Royals starting pitching prospects seem to do. If he gets over that number, the Royals have probably started to shed themselves of their reputation as murderers of pitching prospects.
Ned Yost undeniably bad decisions +/- 5: They are coming. Whether it be changing his lineup 57 times before the All Star Break, pulling pitchers at terrible moments, spitting tobacco on a beat reporter or shattering Sal Perez's knees from overwork, we know he is going to make a few. We'll give him five. After that, the season is lost.
Dayton Moore Trade Deadline important moves +/-1: Either he will be faced with the prospect of trying to make a move that gets the Royals into the playoffs or selling high on a lost season. We sincerely hope it is the former and Moore is looking to add the final piece at the All Star Break as the Royals lead the Division by 5 games. If so, will he have the guts to shed another propect for a big bat? In contrast, if things go terribly wrong, will Moore have the guts to cash out James Shields or others?
