The PBR is deciding to bypass a "wrap-up" post picking apart what went wrong and what went right for the Royals this season. I think it's pretty clear: good starting pitching + very good defense + rock star bullpen - substantially under performing offense = 86 wins. The math is pretty simple, the difficult part is how this team can sustain the positive parts of that equation, find some offense and add 5-7 wins to their total come October 2014. This is where the PBR comes in. Now that it is October, the one sustaining element we have left is to solve the world's problems as they relate to the very small world of KC Royals baseball.
Problem #1 - Ervin Santana is leaving the building: The first question Royals fans will be asking this offseason is how do you replace 200+ innings of 3.28 ERA baseball? Dayton Moore's answer early in the offseason seems to either be mid-level reclamation projects or one-last-hurrah veteran types or the ultimate high-upside injury riddled once-dominant starting pitcher. These would be the obvious answers, but we're not looking for obvious answers here at the PBR. These are classic small market team safe moves that sometimes actually work (see Ervin Santana, Scott Feldman, Bartolo Colon) but sometimes don't (see Shaun Marcum, Josh Johnson, Dan Haren). So while these might be tactically sound strategies, the PBR doesn't sit around all winter dreaming about Phil Hughes suiting up in a Royals' uniform. We advocate for more extremist strategies when approaching the market. Thus we recommend that the Royals go big or stay at home. Two years ago the Royals were coming off spending at a near Marlins level payroll, when Yu Darvish received his record posting fee. Now the Rangers have a two-time top ten Cy Young finisher under contract from the ages of 27-30 at a ridiculous 4yrs/$41 mil. That same time period will cost the Dodgers $102 million for the services of going-on 30 Zack Greinke, the Tigers $104 mil for 30-something Justin Verlander, and the Yankees possibly $96 mil for mid-30s CC Sabathia who is coming off a 4.78 ERA. What's the point? The Royals should try to hang with the big boys and shock the world by landing the latest Japanese can't miss import. We all know this will NEVER Happen, the Glass family has done nothing to show us that this is a possibility, but if there were ever a way to send a message this is it. This year alone the Royals can say that they have roughly $18 mil freed up from Bruce Chen and Ervin Santana and next year about the same from James Shields and Luke Hochevar, this isn't quite enough but it's not a bad start. Look we get it, the Royals might not be able to pony up $75 mil now, but they probably could have when Yu Darvish hit the market, and how good would this year look with Yu Darvish AND Wil Myers on the team? If teams actually knew how to just pluck 200 innings and 3.28 ERAs out of thin air and sign them to short term contracts at less than market value, a GMs job would be easy. However, Pitchers are a rare breed of expensive and unstable commodities and the Royals can't use Ervin Santana as a blueprint for future success in the pitching market; pitchers usually don't just shave two runs off of their ERA or suddenly get over past injuries. It happens every year, but if you rely on this strategy you'll never be sustainable, but going bold and looking for a real ace is how the Royals should operate. Thus, the PBR cautions against middling in the middle and either sign Masahiro Tanaka, trade for David Price or simply inform Danny Duffy and Yordano Ventura that it's time to grow up because if the Royals farm system can't produce at least a #2 starter at some point, the problems aren't going to be solved by Phil Hughes. Now lets move on to the real problem...
Problem #2 - Too much mediocrity: Here it is, you can imagine Dayton Moore thinking to himself that if you look at everything just right you can see how every single player on the Royals gets better on offense. This will lead Mr. Moore to convincing us that he doesn't even have to try to upgrade the offense other than a few minor tweaks. Of course both Billy and Alex will go back to putting up an OPS above .850 and Eric Hosmer is a rising star ready jump Prince Fielder and challenge Chris Davis as the best 1B in the AL. Naturally Alcides Escobar and Mike Moustakas will work so hard in the offseason that they turn into the .290 hitting SS and 30 HR mashing 3B that everyone wants to see. This is coupled with the a priori certainty that the David Lough - Justin Maxwell - Lorenzo Cain - Jarrod Dyson super platoon outfield will both improve offensively and not miss a step on the bases and in the field. And without a doubt Dayton Moore will finally solve his 2B black hole with a shrewd trade or free agent signing that adds three wins from that position alone. And if you even question the idea that Salvy Perez is turning into a Hall of Fame catcher right before our eyes, you'll be whipped with a wet powder blue jerseys for eternity. Combing back to earth, any of these things happening would be great, but everyone repeating the year they had last year is not out of the question. So again we recommend going big. While we may be losing interest in giving Carl Crawford/Jayson Werth contracts to Shin Soo Choo or Jacoby Ellsbury, we here at the PBR advise a Nick Swisher type buy on Curtis Granderson. The reason being is that he might be half the price of the previous two and its not entirely clear his production would be that much less. They also have about equal injury risk with Granderson probably going for a year or two less guaranteed money. He hit 40 HRs TWO YEARS IN A ROW. NO ROYAL HAS EVER DONE THIS IN ONE YEAR!!!!!!!!!! Okay, it was at the NEW Yankee Softball Stadium, but still if you put him in RF for the next four to five years he is a lock to have the best odds at beating the Balboni record in every single year. The Royals need a Jolt Cola/Monster/Red Bull power smoothie on offense, and it's not coming from the gang who came in last in the AL in HRs this season. Yes, Granderson is capable of hitting .230 and striking out 200 times, but he still walks and hits HRs, which are two things the Royals desperately need. He also fits the good guy-winner checklist that Dayton Moore likes and still meshes with the good base running/defense team philosophy. We recently read this in the NY Times or a similar publication:
"By far and away the best 30 HR value on the market", according to PBR Financial Advisers.
I'm not a GM, but I do read MLB Trade Rumors enough to pretend like I have an astute grasp on baseball's financial markets so I can't see Curtis Granderson getting more than a 4yr/$60 mil deal and if Cleveland can give out two of these contracts, there is no way the Royals can claim poverty. Also, getting these types of free agents to sign with us was supposedly one of the ancillary benefits to reaching 86 wins this season in the name of respectability. Finally, Dayton needs to do his best to make fans forget about Wil Myers; that's Rookie of the Year Wil Myers, starting RF for the Rays Wil Myers, officially here to taunt Royals fans Wil Myers.
Problem #3 - Luke Hochevar will cost $5 million: If you're a team that has a shaky bullpen and your top set-up man -- who is also theoretically capable of starting 200 innings -- is locked in for this price then you are absolutely ecstatic. However, this is the Royals and this is Luke Hochevar. A lot of things went right for the Royals last season, but near the top of the list of things least likely to happen was Hochevar's resurrection from leading the league in earned runs allowed one year to sub-2.00 ERA shutdown reliever the next. Also, this is the same Royals bullpen that had to keep Louis Coleman in the minors for half of the season because there just wasn't a spot for his 0.61 ERA. Hoch is just a luxury that is better allocated to other needs, we get how tempting it would be to keep him, but that kind of money can really separate the Royals from pulling the trigger on a free agent bat or getting gun shy at the last minute. We can still hold out hope that Dayton Moore gets blown away by a trade offer and we can finally say good bye to Luke, but after reading some recent comments it's more likely that he is back in the starting rotation than wearing another jersey. If Moore doesn't find a way to turn his bullpen assets into something this offseason it will be a huge mistake.
Problem #4 - Guthrie's Backload: Guthrie's 2013 season was perfectly acceptable and he was a nice calming presence every 5th day, but it was a lot nicer at $5 mil rather than the $11 mil he'll be paid this season. I guess every team needs a Jeremy Guthrie and I guess with the prices of free agent pitchers you could make a case for him being worth it, but that number seems high to the PBR. This is a very Royalesque allocation of money: Guthrie, Wade Davis and Hochevar will make a combined $21 mil this season (roughly 1/4th of the teams Payroll). Wouldn't you rather have one ace starting pitcher making $20 mil and two rookies making the league min to be a 5th starter and bullpen arm? Sure, if Wade Davis and Guthrie combine for 400 IP at a 4.00 ERA and Hoch repeats last year, they are worth the money. However, there is a distinct possibility of getting a 180 IP at a 4.5 ERA and two bullpen arms that put up 3.5 ERAs, while singing the "we don't have enough money to sign big free agents" tune. Guthrie gave up the most hits in the league last season and combines that with the rare ability to only strike out a batter every other inning, but I'm sure he can continue to survive somehow. The point here is that if you are a good GM, Guthrie is the guy you're supposed to be able to find every year or pull out of AAA, but not the guy who is your second highest paid player (currently).
Problem #5 - The James Shields Catch-22: James Shields was exactly what every Royals fan hoped for, unfortunately Wil Myers is what every Rays fan hoped for. Without Shields the 2014 starting rotation would look very suspect, with Wil Myers the 2014 offense would actually look hopeful. Jake Odorizzi didn't pan out yet, neither did Wade Davis. James Shields is a leader, Wil Myers is young and exciting. The Royals had their best season in 20 years, the Rays were still better. The PBR fully supported the decision to go big last offseason and make the Wil Myers trade, and we still feel that the .290 and 25 HRs Wil Myers now seems likely to provide over the next few years is infinitely more replaceable than Shields' 230 IP and 3.00 ERA. However, if those numbers go in opposite directions this season, it will be less likely that we can still defend the move. The Royals can't afford to simply push on these big trades, it is well within the realm of possibilities that these two are equally valuable this season and the Royals are then left without an ace SP AND without a star RF in 2015. So yes, James Shields being the difference maker in the Royals making the playoffs this season is fairly important. Another year just like this one has to be the worst case scenario; we would still look upon James Shields time in KC fondly as he signs a $100+ million contract somewhere near the Pacific or Atlantic Ocean. By then, 2015 Wil Myers wouldn't really cause us to lose much sleep and a lot of credit for the Royals resurgence would be credited to him. That's a lot of pressure on the Royals, but it's high time we actually expect something good from them.
I think the coast is clear, I just refreshed all 17 internet browsing windows currently open on my computer and Dayton Moore still hasn't made a trade or signed anyone. Hopefully he will be getting his PBR new post alert soon and drop his pursuit of Phil Hughes and start begging the Glass family to sell a few shares of Wal-Mart stock so the Royals can enter into a bidding war with the Yankees and Dodgers for the next Yu Darvish!
Friday, November 15, 2013
Sunday, October 20, 2013
28 Years and Counting: I-70 Envy
So it's been a few weeks now, but we decided that it was finally high time the PBR got around to putting a bow on a season that will most likely amount to either a forgotten blip like the 2003 season, or the most important season in 25+ years. Now that the season officially ended in pretty much the way we all expected, we know that it will ultimately be judged by the success of next season. It's easy to get swept up in the excitement of the best season in 20 years, but the reality is that this season is exactly what we should have expected. Do we applaud the team for actually doing what it was supposed to do? All of this came as a result of a team record payroll, the third season from two of the highest regarded position player prospects our farm system has produced, the magical 27 year old season from Billy Butler, swapping the ROY for another team's Ace pitcher, giving $13 mil to another #2-type pitcher and giving $30 mil to another #3-type, so really this season actually deserves more like a golf-clap than a standing ovation. All of the good things came with some bad: an 8-20 May, the firing of one hitting coach in order to hire two minor league hitting coaches, then promptly firing those two for saying stupid things, then begging our team icon to suit-up and coach the young hitters, then having him resign after a couple months of mixed results. All of this led to one of the worst offenses in baseball spearheaded by easily the worst left side of the infield in baseball, a big regression from Alex Gordon, less than nothing from RF for two months, very little from Lorenzo Cain (other than defense), more of the same from Getzie (that is to say one of the worst offensive players in baseball), the fewest HRs in the AL and overall a boring team to watch at the plate. There is no denying the great step forward made by the Royals this year, but it still leaves us envious of the others:
Envy #1 - The Cards: Who else. They are just a few hours down I-70, but it's like their living in a parallel universe where everything goes right. This year is a perfect example: before the year even begins they lose one of their best pitchers (Carpenter) and their starting veteran SS (Furcal); no problem their best pitching prospect will actually pitch like that (Miller) and of course their 13th round draft pick (Matt Carpenter) will step up and lead the NL in hits, runs, and doubles. Problem Solved. When their star player walks away, guess what happens to the Cards? He gets worse, and the supplemental draft pick received from the team who signs him turns into the pitcher who leads them to the Worlds series (Wacha), this pitcher was also drafted 15 rounds after the Royals pick who is not in the majors. They sign a veteran RF to a modest contract, and low and behold this player (Beltran) is actually worth the money and then some. We could go on, but I think we've made our point. Here the Cards are going to yet another World Series, they've been to the playoffs twelve times since that 1985 series, Since 2003 when the Royals had their last winning season, they've had only ONE losing season, which means that they have had exactly as many losing season in the last 10 years as we've had winnings seasons. They manage to get 1.5 million more people to show up to their games, they get to sign whomever they want, they are seemingly impervious any kind of bad luck, it's just not fair. The gap between us and them is what makes it so difficult to even get mad, but this is the team to which we should be comparing ourselves. Just 28 years ago, they were jealous of us.
Envy #2 - Cleveland Indians: We were supposed to finish 2nd this year! They couldn't even let us do that; we haven't been able to finish a season in 2nd since the strike year of 1995. That same year Cleveland had one of the best teams in the history of baseball and has made the playoffs nine times while the Royals haven't finished better than 3rd once. So how did they do it this year? By getting lucky and winning 11 games in a row to finish out the season? Maybe. By making strategic signings and trades designed to help them now and in the future? Possibly. By signing a manger who has actually been successful before? Doesn't hurt. A combination off all of that? Most likely. However, the point is that they've been down and out just like the Royals, but they find a way to get back to the playoffs and the Royals keep talking about progress. There is no real Cleveland way, and that is probably one of the best reasons to point to when asking how they have been so much better than the Royals during this period of time. They have been flexible and just not done so many things wrong like the Royals. It also doesn't hurt that they've got their trades right, while the Royals have managed just okay results in both directions; nobody can pronounce the Grienke deal a real win for the Royals and Shields cost us the ROY and maybe a cheaper version of the 5th starter they thought they were getting. The best path to success this season for the Royals might be to play the third-times-a-charm strategy with a big trade, only this time they have to fleece someone instead of the both teams win approach.
Envy #3 - Tampa Bay: We took their most reliable veteran #2 starting pitcher, their best set-up man and gave them 90 games of a 23 year old right fielder and 30 innings of an emergency starter and long reliever. Still they finished 5 games better than us. We had a better starting Rotation, better Bullpen, better LF (maybe), better catcher, wait that might be it. The difference here is that they Rays didn't have sink holes in their team, everyone was an above average contributor. This is an extremely important lesson for the Royals next season, don't have any positions where you are HORRIBLE! If you are going to have a light hitting, good defensive SS, that's it. You can't also have a light hitting good defensive 3B, 2B, CF and RF too.
Envy #4 - Pittsburgh Pirates: It was a good relationship for a while. We were both extremely pathetic for very long periods of time; the Pirates with their lack of winning seasons and the Royals with their lack of Playoff appearances in 20+ years. We always had each other to comfort us on long winter nights dreaming about miraculous turn around seasons only to be woken up again by the next season's pitiful reality. Then it happend, Pittsburgh didn't suck, they didn't blow it down the stretch, they actually made the Playoffs. It was short lived, but still they did both things in one season and the Royals didn't. We're still talking about next season as THE SEASON when we break the streak and they aren't. Now we're all alone, I guess we could try to include the Cubs in our company but they've been much closer to breaking that streak than us. It is lonely, but I guess we're happy for you Pittsburgh.
Envy #5 - The Tigers: I guess we have to be envious of them, they won the division. However, they just seem so much better that it is difficult to be too envious, but it wasn't so long ago that they were actually WORSE than us. During the season of our last winning record, they almost set a record for most losses with 119. Since then they have gotten better and now are clearly the perennial favorites in the Central. Since that time the Royals have gotten worse and only now can they finally at least say they're winners again. The difference is blatantly obvious: they have real stars and we don't. The gap between Miggy and our best hitter is about the production of Mike Moustakas; if you combined the HRs, RBIs and Walks of Hosmer and Moose you still wouldn't even be close to Miggy. James Shields actually outpitched Justin Verlander this season, unfortunately both Anibal Sanchez and Max Scherzer were better than that. Prince Fielder had a really down year, but it was still better than Hosmer's season. Torii Hunter is still a very valuable player at 37, Jeff Francouer is done at 29. These are the differences that the Royals have to make up this offseason. Good Luck.
The Royals still aren't playing meaningful October baseball, but they did manage a few interesting weeks in September and that is a good thing no matter how far away they still might be. Yes, we are jealous of these teams, but we are now close enough to at least throw our name out there as challengers. We can't wait see what happens this offseason, as we said earlier this season only means something if next season is better.
Envy #1 - The Cards: Who else. They are just a few hours down I-70, but it's like their living in a parallel universe where everything goes right. This year is a perfect example: before the year even begins they lose one of their best pitchers (Carpenter) and their starting veteran SS (Furcal); no problem their best pitching prospect will actually pitch like that (Miller) and of course their 13th round draft pick (Matt Carpenter) will step up and lead the NL in hits, runs, and doubles. Problem Solved. When their star player walks away, guess what happens to the Cards? He gets worse, and the supplemental draft pick received from the team who signs him turns into the pitcher who leads them to the Worlds series (Wacha), this pitcher was also drafted 15 rounds after the Royals pick who is not in the majors. They sign a veteran RF to a modest contract, and low and behold this player (Beltran) is actually worth the money and then some. We could go on, but I think we've made our point. Here the Cards are going to yet another World Series, they've been to the playoffs twelve times since that 1985 series, Since 2003 when the Royals had their last winning season, they've had only ONE losing season, which means that they have had exactly as many losing season in the last 10 years as we've had winnings seasons. They manage to get 1.5 million more people to show up to their games, they get to sign whomever they want, they are seemingly impervious any kind of bad luck, it's just not fair. The gap between us and them is what makes it so difficult to even get mad, but this is the team to which we should be comparing ourselves. Just 28 years ago, they were jealous of us.
Envy #2 - Cleveland Indians: We were supposed to finish 2nd this year! They couldn't even let us do that; we haven't been able to finish a season in 2nd since the strike year of 1995. That same year Cleveland had one of the best teams in the history of baseball and has made the playoffs nine times while the Royals haven't finished better than 3rd once. So how did they do it this year? By getting lucky and winning 11 games in a row to finish out the season? Maybe. By making strategic signings and trades designed to help them now and in the future? Possibly. By signing a manger who has actually been successful before? Doesn't hurt. A combination off all of that? Most likely. However, the point is that they've been down and out just like the Royals, but they find a way to get back to the playoffs and the Royals keep talking about progress. There is no real Cleveland way, and that is probably one of the best reasons to point to when asking how they have been so much better than the Royals during this period of time. They have been flexible and just not done so many things wrong like the Royals. It also doesn't hurt that they've got their trades right, while the Royals have managed just okay results in both directions; nobody can pronounce the Grienke deal a real win for the Royals and Shields cost us the ROY and maybe a cheaper version of the 5th starter they thought they were getting. The best path to success this season for the Royals might be to play the third-times-a-charm strategy with a big trade, only this time they have to fleece someone instead of the both teams win approach.
Envy #3 - Tampa Bay: We took their most reliable veteran #2 starting pitcher, their best set-up man and gave them 90 games of a 23 year old right fielder and 30 innings of an emergency starter and long reliever. Still they finished 5 games better than us. We had a better starting Rotation, better Bullpen, better LF (maybe), better catcher, wait that might be it. The difference here is that they Rays didn't have sink holes in their team, everyone was an above average contributor. This is an extremely important lesson for the Royals next season, don't have any positions where you are HORRIBLE! If you are going to have a light hitting, good defensive SS, that's it. You can't also have a light hitting good defensive 3B, 2B, CF and RF too.
Envy #4 - Pittsburgh Pirates: It was a good relationship for a while. We were both extremely pathetic for very long periods of time; the Pirates with their lack of winning seasons and the Royals with their lack of Playoff appearances in 20+ years. We always had each other to comfort us on long winter nights dreaming about miraculous turn around seasons only to be woken up again by the next season's pitiful reality. Then it happend, Pittsburgh didn't suck, they didn't blow it down the stretch, they actually made the Playoffs. It was short lived, but still they did both things in one season and the Royals didn't. We're still talking about next season as THE SEASON when we break the streak and they aren't. Now we're all alone, I guess we could try to include the Cubs in our company but they've been much closer to breaking that streak than us. It is lonely, but I guess we're happy for you Pittsburgh.
Envy #5 - The Tigers: I guess we have to be envious of them, they won the division. However, they just seem so much better that it is difficult to be too envious, but it wasn't so long ago that they were actually WORSE than us. During the season of our last winning record, they almost set a record for most losses with 119. Since then they have gotten better and now are clearly the perennial favorites in the Central. Since that time the Royals have gotten worse and only now can they finally at least say they're winners again. The difference is blatantly obvious: they have real stars and we don't. The gap between Miggy and our best hitter is about the production of Mike Moustakas; if you combined the HRs, RBIs and Walks of Hosmer and Moose you still wouldn't even be close to Miggy. James Shields actually outpitched Justin Verlander this season, unfortunately both Anibal Sanchez and Max Scherzer were better than that. Prince Fielder had a really down year, but it was still better than Hosmer's season. Torii Hunter is still a very valuable player at 37, Jeff Francouer is done at 29. These are the differences that the Royals have to make up this offseason. Good Luck.
The Royals still aren't playing meaningful October baseball, but they did manage a few interesting weeks in September and that is a good thing no matter how far away they still might be. Yes, we are jealous of these teams, but we are now close enough to at least throw our name out there as challengers. We can't wait see what happens this offseason, as we said earlier this season only means something if next season is better.
Friday, September 20, 2013
The September Issue: Peaks and Valleys
Full disclosure here, I've written and now rewritten this post before. I almost gloated about forecasting the end of the season (see last post) as the team got swept at home by the lowly White Sox on 8/22. However I was lazy and then they had a nice little winning streak just as the Rays and Rangers started their downward spiral. Again, I almost wrote about the inevitable end when James Shields looked like the Anti-Big Game James on 9/6, and then again after both of Nex Yost's well documented managerial disasters. But those posts didn't get written and now, more than a month later, the Royals have 10 games to play and three games to make up in order to get themselves into the two-for-one wild card game. Without getting too deep into the analysis, here is how this thing could go down in descending order from the most likely to the least likely:
Scenario #1 - The College Try: This is where the Royals go 7-3 or 6-5, play well, but miss the playoffs by a game or two. All skeptical Royals fans see it going down this way. They finish something like 86-77, Ned Yost is hailed as a leader of men, the James Shield trade is justified, we spend all offseason talking about who we could get to make the team better: "we have to bring Santana back", "we gotta get a second basemen", "wouldn't Jacoby Ellsbury look good in a Royals uniform", etc. This is by far and away the most likely and palatable scenario. The PBR can't endorse Ned Yost coming back, but then again we also spent the entire year talking about how they were going to blow it and yet they never quite did, so we will default to results. Yes, we will get tired of hearing about how this was a great step forward and how the team is really "ready" to win now, but we'll focus on making outlandish trade and free-agent signing scenarios and hibernate until Spring, criticize Dayton Moore and then wait for them to play about the same next season.
Scenario #2 - The Decisions: This is the inverse of the first. This is where the Royals go no better than 5-5, maybe 3-7, and we fans with short memories can start the fire Ned Yost riots. We could easily go out and get swept in the last homestand of the season this weekend against the Rangers, become out of the race and play apathetic baseball the rest of the way. This is an option we have to broach, even though it is the most difficult to stomach from the fan's perspective. This is where we get to see some intense panic after the season; Ned Yost gets fired and we fork over $120 million to resign Santana and pick-up Hunter Pence. This is just too drastic, nobody wants to see this happen.
Scenario #3 - The Vengeful Royal: The Royals sweep the Rangers this weekend on their way to slipping into wild card. Meanwhile the the Indians choke, but the Rays limp in but finish tied with the Royals and have to cede home field because of the head-to-head match-up. This is where it gets good; James Shields pitches on short rest, throws a shut out against his former team, Wil Myers goes 0-4 with 4Ks, on his fourth K he breaks his hand slamming a bat in the dugout and is injured and humiliated enough to keep him from ever becoming anything more than another failed prospect. They predictably lose in 6 games to the eventual World Series champs, The Oakland A's. However, everyone rejoices and this does become the start of another Golden Age of baseball in KC; they sign Shin-Soo Choo who makes us forget about RF for the next 5 years, Yordono Ventura does become the next Pedro, Billy and Alex age gracefully, Hosmer and Moose become 90% and 75% of what they were supposed to be, Bubba Starling finally becomes the Next George Brett, there is never another negative word written about Dayton Moore and the PBR is picked up by ESPN for exclusive Royals coverage. This is the third most likely scenario because only the first two have above a one percent chance of happening.
Scenario #4 - The Emperors New Clothes: This is where the Royals go 0-10 and fail to even have a .500 season. The Pittsburgh Pirates win the World Series and the Royals are left standing as the most pathetic sports franchise in History. Dayton Moore gets to blame one last manger, Ned Yost is fired and things get even worse. The Royals do nothing in the offseason more than resign Luke Hochevar, Chris Getz and Emilio Bonafacio because Dayton Moore is denied all other financial transactions by the Glass family and officially becomes a lame duck GM. The final nail in the coffin is complete when James Shields gets "shoulder tightness" in spring training, somehow Chris Getz wins the starting 2B job again and then they open the season 10-20. At this point Moore gets fired and is replaced by a former Marlins executive and Royals fans are promised they just need to restock the farm system and then there is a summer fire sale where everything goes for 50 cents on the dollar.
Scenario #5 - The 1980s Throwback Party: The Royals manage to go 9-1 over the next 10 games, beat Cleveland in the wildcard playoff game, then somehow ride their pitching through the rest of the postseason, obviously beating the St. Louis Cardinals in the World Series, and finally parade through the Plaza again. Whether or not they go the next 27 years without another playoff game becomes irrelevant and what comes next is not important because that is what happens when you win a World Series.
There will be no negative commentary by the PBR for the next 10 games as we observe a period of optimism to respect the 2013 Rollercoaster Royals. In my mind, all five of these scenarios are equal based on what we've seen so far this season.
Scenario #1 - The College Try: This is where the Royals go 7-3 or 6-5, play well, but miss the playoffs by a game or two. All skeptical Royals fans see it going down this way. They finish something like 86-77, Ned Yost is hailed as a leader of men, the James Shield trade is justified, we spend all offseason talking about who we could get to make the team better: "we have to bring Santana back", "we gotta get a second basemen", "wouldn't Jacoby Ellsbury look good in a Royals uniform", etc. This is by far and away the most likely and palatable scenario. The PBR can't endorse Ned Yost coming back, but then again we also spent the entire year talking about how they were going to blow it and yet they never quite did, so we will default to results. Yes, we will get tired of hearing about how this was a great step forward and how the team is really "ready" to win now, but we'll focus on making outlandish trade and free-agent signing scenarios and hibernate until Spring, criticize Dayton Moore and then wait for them to play about the same next season.
Scenario #2 - The Decisions: This is the inverse of the first. This is where the Royals go no better than 5-5, maybe 3-7, and we fans with short memories can start the fire Ned Yost riots. We could easily go out and get swept in the last homestand of the season this weekend against the Rangers, become out of the race and play apathetic baseball the rest of the way. This is an option we have to broach, even though it is the most difficult to stomach from the fan's perspective. This is where we get to see some intense panic after the season; Ned Yost gets fired and we fork over $120 million to resign Santana and pick-up Hunter Pence. This is just too drastic, nobody wants to see this happen.
Scenario #3 - The Vengeful Royal: The Royals sweep the Rangers this weekend on their way to slipping into wild card. Meanwhile the the Indians choke, but the Rays limp in but finish tied with the Royals and have to cede home field because of the head-to-head match-up. This is where it gets good; James Shields pitches on short rest, throws a shut out against his former team, Wil Myers goes 0-4 with 4Ks, on his fourth K he breaks his hand slamming a bat in the dugout and is injured and humiliated enough to keep him from ever becoming anything more than another failed prospect. They predictably lose in 6 games to the eventual World Series champs, The Oakland A's. However, everyone rejoices and this does become the start of another Golden Age of baseball in KC; they sign Shin-Soo Choo who makes us forget about RF for the next 5 years, Yordono Ventura does become the next Pedro, Billy and Alex age gracefully, Hosmer and Moose become 90% and 75% of what they were supposed to be, Bubba Starling finally becomes the Next George Brett, there is never another negative word written about Dayton Moore and the PBR is picked up by ESPN for exclusive Royals coverage. This is the third most likely scenario because only the first two have above a one percent chance of happening.
Scenario #4 - The Emperors New Clothes: This is where the Royals go 0-10 and fail to even have a .500 season. The Pittsburgh Pirates win the World Series and the Royals are left standing as the most pathetic sports franchise in History. Dayton Moore gets to blame one last manger, Ned Yost is fired and things get even worse. The Royals do nothing in the offseason more than resign Luke Hochevar, Chris Getz and Emilio Bonafacio because Dayton Moore is denied all other financial transactions by the Glass family and officially becomes a lame duck GM. The final nail in the coffin is complete when James Shields gets "shoulder tightness" in spring training, somehow Chris Getz wins the starting 2B job again and then they open the season 10-20. At this point Moore gets fired and is replaced by a former Marlins executive and Royals fans are promised they just need to restock the farm system and then there is a summer fire sale where everything goes for 50 cents on the dollar.
Scenario #5 - The 1980s Throwback Party: The Royals manage to go 9-1 over the next 10 games, beat Cleveland in the wildcard playoff game, then somehow ride their pitching through the rest of the postseason, obviously beating the St. Louis Cardinals in the World Series, and finally parade through the Plaza again. Whether or not they go the next 27 years without another playoff game becomes irrelevant and what comes next is not important because that is what happens when you win a World Series.
There will be no negative commentary by the PBR for the next 10 games as we observe a period of optimism to respect the 2013 Rollercoaster Royals. In my mind, all five of these scenarios are equal based on what we've seen so far this season.
Wednesday, August 14, 2013
Is this the end?
If you could draw up how the Royals were going to kill their momentum and fade back into their old ways, the last two days would be a pretty good start. Bruce Chen throws another shut out, but the Royals managed to put up ZERO runs and lose in extra innings on a fluke 0-2 beanball and SB off of our gold glove catcher. Then, as we were winning a sloppy game in typical Royals fashion on a lazy Wednesday afternoon, suddenly the defense lets the team down, Luke Hochevar goes with his vintage look and Alex Gordon strikes out as the tying run to seal losing two-of-three to the lowly Marlins. This of course all happened while the Tigers and Indians were looking like real playoff contenders by rallying for victories. The PBR has been very quiet of late, basically there is not much to say when everything is going right, you just watch and assume that it will continue, but when it doesn't you freak out and look to blame someone or something...
Blame #1 Miggy Tejada: We know it's not his fault, but basically this 39 year old was the shining example of how everything was working out during the great post All Star break winning streak that got us believing we could really stay in the race. In the end the paper clips and duck tape holding him together weren't enough to stave off the inevitable season ending injury. As Royals fans we should have seen it coming. He personified the unsustainable fluke that was our winning streak. Now he's being replaced by another 39 year old who is a very poor facsimile for what Miggy brought to the table and who will undoubtedly fail as so many veteran Royals pick-ups before him. A resurrection from Miggy is exactly what the team needed to propel them into the playoffs; another familiar face on ESPN promos that could make their relevance believable. Unfortunately, it didn't work out and now we're forced to watch lessor players try to fill his shoes, this was the start.
Blame #2 Ned Yost: I really have nothing to back this up, but when a team loses the manager is always to blame. Why did he lead off Chris Getz? Why didn't he pinch hit there? Shouldn't he have played Justin Maxwell at 3rd base? Ervin Santana should have thrown a complete game, right? Why does Greg Holland ever leave the game, is two innings of relief really asking that much? Can't Ned tell them to hit more HRs? Gordon in the four hole, again, really? Should Elliot Johnson ever be playing? Why not hit Billy Butler leadoff? Like the Royals of late, pretty much everything has gone right for Yostie, but he will soon be fair game again once we tailspin into a losing streak that ends the season. Honestly, this is pretty much the hand he's been dealt. Yes, batting Chris Getz in the leadoff spot is criminal, but it wouldn't matter if there were someone really that much better to play 2B, or if Eric Hosmer were Mike Trout, or if Billy Butler were David Ortiz, or if Alex Gordon were Miguel Cabrera. That being said, Ned is basically managing for his baseball future; continued good play would mean a big contract extension and possible Manager of the year votes, but stumbling down the stretch would almost certainly mean walking papers for Ned.
Blame #3 Chris Getz: Since his return the Royals are 1-2, can't argue with that. He is also responsible for world hunger, crimes against the state and the downfall of Network TV.
Blame #4 George Brett: Can he come back and re-remind us how to do it like 1985? If we're going to give him credit for "turning around" the hitters, he needs to be open to some of the blame as well.
Blame #5 Elliot Johnson: What exactly is doing to help the team again? No answer needed to the previous question, but now we can definitively point to his error today as actively hurting the team and likely starting them on a 10 game losing streak that will get people fired, start riots on the Plaza and lead to the team being sold and moved to Oklahoma City. I get it, he's an emergency back-up, but there are literally five guys in AAA who are better than him, Falu, Colon, Giavotella, etc.? His slugging avg. would rank near the bottom of the league's batting averages, there just isn't anything there.
The team has been going so well that this is all the PBR could come up with to blame for losing the last two against the Marlins. While the unprecedented five game sweep of the Tigers would change everything again, hoping for this might not be realistic. However, as Royals fans, the fact that this series has some semblance of meaning is monumental. If it's a success this little bump in the road against the Marlins will be forgotten, however if bad things happen in Motown then everyone will put a big red circle on the two games the team squandered away against the Marlins when we begin to ask where it all went wrong.
Blame #1 Miggy Tejada: We know it's not his fault, but basically this 39 year old was the shining example of how everything was working out during the great post All Star break winning streak that got us believing we could really stay in the race. In the end the paper clips and duck tape holding him together weren't enough to stave off the inevitable season ending injury. As Royals fans we should have seen it coming. He personified the unsustainable fluke that was our winning streak. Now he's being replaced by another 39 year old who is a very poor facsimile for what Miggy brought to the table and who will undoubtedly fail as so many veteran Royals pick-ups before him. A resurrection from Miggy is exactly what the team needed to propel them into the playoffs; another familiar face on ESPN promos that could make their relevance believable. Unfortunately, it didn't work out and now we're forced to watch lessor players try to fill his shoes, this was the start.
Blame #2 Ned Yost: I really have nothing to back this up, but when a team loses the manager is always to blame. Why did he lead off Chris Getz? Why didn't he pinch hit there? Shouldn't he have played Justin Maxwell at 3rd base? Ervin Santana should have thrown a complete game, right? Why does Greg Holland ever leave the game, is two innings of relief really asking that much? Can't Ned tell them to hit more HRs? Gordon in the four hole, again, really? Should Elliot Johnson ever be playing? Why not hit Billy Butler leadoff? Like the Royals of late, pretty much everything has gone right for Yostie, but he will soon be fair game again once we tailspin into a losing streak that ends the season. Honestly, this is pretty much the hand he's been dealt. Yes, batting Chris Getz in the leadoff spot is criminal, but it wouldn't matter if there were someone really that much better to play 2B, or if Eric Hosmer were Mike Trout, or if Billy Butler were David Ortiz, or if Alex Gordon were Miguel Cabrera. That being said, Ned is basically managing for his baseball future; continued good play would mean a big contract extension and possible Manager of the year votes, but stumbling down the stretch would almost certainly mean walking papers for Ned.
Blame #3 Chris Getz: Since his return the Royals are 1-2, can't argue with that. He is also responsible for world hunger, crimes against the state and the downfall of Network TV.
Blame #4 George Brett: Can he come back and re-remind us how to do it like 1985? If we're going to give him credit for "turning around" the hitters, he needs to be open to some of the blame as well.
Blame #5 Elliot Johnson: What exactly is doing to help the team again? No answer needed to the previous question, but now we can definitively point to his error today as actively hurting the team and likely starting them on a 10 game losing streak that will get people fired, start riots on the Plaza and lead to the team being sold and moved to Oklahoma City. I get it, he's an emergency back-up, but there are literally five guys in AAA who are better than him, Falu, Colon, Giavotella, etc.? His slugging avg. would rank near the bottom of the league's batting averages, there just isn't anything there.
The team has been going so well that this is all the PBR could come up with to blame for losing the last two against the Marlins. While the unprecedented five game sweep of the Tigers would change everything again, hoping for this might not be realistic. However, as Royals fans, the fact that this series has some semblance of meaning is monumental. If it's a success this little bump in the road against the Marlins will be forgotten, however if bad things happen in Motown then everyone will put a big red circle on the two games the team squandered away against the Marlins when we begin to ask where it all went wrong.
Wednesday, July 31, 2013
More than .500 is less at the deadline
The Royals improbable post All Star Break run finally culminated last night with season long slumper Mike Moustakas hitting two home runs, Ervin Santana continuing to be both a Royal and a good starting pitcher (a difficult feat) and pushing the team beyond a .500 record. This has the clear benefit that we no longer have to say "if we could just get to .500 then..." Past this, the advantages stem from the psychological benefits to a beaten down fanbase, to preserving the slim hopes at the playoffs, the saving of jobs, the respectability of the franchise allowing them to sign free agents who would otherwise not be interested, etc., etc., etc. The PBR is happy to see the improvement and is exactly what we wanted to see before the season started, but the fact remains that (after Detroit's win this afternoon) if the Royals lose tonight, we will be in the same position as before the All Star Break, despite this nice seven game winning streak. So what else does this mean....
They Were Buyers!: After so much debate as to whether or not the Royals should sell high on Ervin Santana or go big on a second baseman, they did neither. They made the classic deadline deal and got JUST ANOTHER OUTFIELDER. We now have our replacement for Wil Myers, come join the four man platoon Mr. Justin Maxwell!!!!!! Classic Dayton type guy; big, athletic, hit some HRs one time in his career, possible platoon RF, might be useful, but most likely useless, only slightly better than Jeff Francouer, but I'm sure there is something Dayton Loves about him and of course he couldn't just sit still. Obviously, we all know that this was most likely a waste of time. Hopefully, this is what happened: Dayton asked for every team's #1, #2, #3 and #4 prospect for Ervin Santana, they hung up the phone and Dayton never called back. Also, Dayton checked in on Howie Kendrick and the Angels asked for the same package and Dayton hung up. We can all live with this outcome, no one will ever know what we could have had for Santana and likewise it's hard to fault Dayton for not wanting to give up another top prospect for a proven 2B, especially given that Wil Myers is currently one of the hottest players in baseball. The PBR and others were really pushing for the Royals to be bold and sell Santana, but we have to default to the fact that we know absolutely nothing and really we just wanted to seem something interesting. So there we have it, another outfielder who happens to hit right handed and almost had 20 HRs last year, questioned answered, we were Buyers.
Touché, Detroit: So the Royals win seven in a row and Detroit wins nine of ten. Naturally the other team has to lose for you to make up ground and Detroit doesn't seem to want to do that. However, they have a player who showed up on the wrong pieces of paper and therefore they'll be losing a starting SS. Their only answer is to take the gold glove starting SS from another first place team. F-you, Tiger! But what about those bullpen problems? Problem solved, Detroit steals the closer from another team to work as a set-up man. Yes, but didn't you hear, we got a right hand hitting platoon 5th outfielder. Seriously, Detroit we need a break. Wait a minute, we might have found your Kryptonite: Miguel Cabrera fielding! This is the only thing that can really affect the chances of the Royals (or Indians) catching Detroit, the best hitter in baseball hitting the DL would be music to ears of the far fetched Dreams of Royals' fans. Not that the PBR would root for that sort of thing
Not Losing Helps: If the Royals have taught us one thing recently, it's that winning every baseball game you play makes you look like a much better team. This is the team we all expected to see, a competent club that shows promise with an outside shot at the playoffs, but most likely still needs a year to gel. It has taken a lot of work to finally become a winning team again, so the best advice the PBR can give is that if they keep winning every game, there might still be a chance, though Detroit might do the same. Where the Royals go next will be very interesting, but given how this season has gone any amount of winning or losing wouldn't come as much of a surprise.
They Were Buyers!: After so much debate as to whether or not the Royals should sell high on Ervin Santana or go big on a second baseman, they did neither. They made the classic deadline deal and got JUST ANOTHER OUTFIELDER. We now have our replacement for Wil Myers, come join the four man platoon Mr. Justin Maxwell!!!!!! Classic Dayton type guy; big, athletic, hit some HRs one time in his career, possible platoon RF, might be useful, but most likely useless, only slightly better than Jeff Francouer, but I'm sure there is something Dayton Loves about him and of course he couldn't just sit still. Obviously, we all know that this was most likely a waste of time. Hopefully, this is what happened: Dayton asked for every team's #1, #2, #3 and #4 prospect for Ervin Santana, they hung up the phone and Dayton never called back. Also, Dayton checked in on Howie Kendrick and the Angels asked for the same package and Dayton hung up. We can all live with this outcome, no one will ever know what we could have had for Santana and likewise it's hard to fault Dayton for not wanting to give up another top prospect for a proven 2B, especially given that Wil Myers is currently one of the hottest players in baseball. The PBR and others were really pushing for the Royals to be bold and sell Santana, but we have to default to the fact that we know absolutely nothing and really we just wanted to seem something interesting. So there we have it, another outfielder who happens to hit right handed and almost had 20 HRs last year, questioned answered, we were Buyers.
Touché, Detroit: So the Royals win seven in a row and Detroit wins nine of ten. Naturally the other team has to lose for you to make up ground and Detroit doesn't seem to want to do that. However, they have a player who showed up on the wrong pieces of paper and therefore they'll be losing a starting SS. Their only answer is to take the gold glove starting SS from another first place team. F-you, Tiger! But what about those bullpen problems? Problem solved, Detroit steals the closer from another team to work as a set-up man. Yes, but didn't you hear, we got a right hand hitting platoon 5th outfielder. Seriously, Detroit we need a break. Wait a minute, we might have found your Kryptonite: Miguel Cabrera fielding! This is the only thing that can really affect the chances of the Royals (or Indians) catching Detroit, the best hitter in baseball hitting the DL would be music to ears of the far fetched Dreams of Royals' fans. Not that the PBR would root for that sort of thing
Not Losing Helps: If the Royals have taught us one thing recently, it's that winning every baseball game you play makes you look like a much better team. This is the team we all expected to see, a competent club that shows promise with an outside shot at the playoffs, but most likely still needs a year to gel. It has taken a lot of work to finally become a winning team again, so the best advice the PBR can give is that if they keep winning every game, there might still be a chance, though Detroit might do the same. Where the Royals go next will be very interesting, but given how this season has gone any amount of winning or losing wouldn't come as much of a surprise.
Friday, July 19, 2013
Dayton Moore's Sisyphus
“We’re pushing forward. We’re pushing up the hill. We’re not going to stop.”
This is per Dayton's ill advised, poorly worded and borderline insane comments to the KC Star that have driven Royals fans to the brink of rioting. There is a lot of truth in this comment, but not the kind Dayton seems to think he's getting at. In the article Dayton thinks he's being the power of positive thinking, leader of men-type that his Tony Robbins books tell him he needs to be, but he's actually the guy who refuses to get it. The Royals are done this year, they just lost 5 games in a row and they have only 70 games remaining in which to make up a seemingly insurmountable lead in either the division behind both the Indians and the Tigers or the Wild Card behind even more teams. The Royals had been hanging around, just barely dodging extinction and then came the pre-All Star break sweep at the hands of the Indians. The best we can hope for is that this is Dayton Moore putting on his best poker face and that he is just waiting for the best offer to come in on Ervin Santana. However, anyone who thinks Chris Getz should get one more ONE MORE CHANCE to prove that he can´t hit major league pitching doesn´t get the benefit of the doubt with the PBR. This type of comeback has happened before in recent memory just down I-70, but if we're the 2011 Cardinals then this blog can officially retire in Peace.
With the Royals opening back up today against the Tigers, there is only one thing that can happen to get things turned around: a sweep, either by us OR them. If they go out and get swept then Dayton can no longer make these types of comments, Ned Yost will have to start putting a resume together and Dayton can be free to trade Ervin Santana and hope to get a minor league player than can help in 2014. If the Royals are the ones who sweep the Tigers, then we restart the Bandwagon and resume talks of 2013 contention and Ned Yost being manager of the year, Dayton Moore being lauded for his brilliant trades for James Shields and Ervin Santana, Hosmer and Moustakas as the new Bash Brothers, etc. However, like Dayton says there is likely more uphill pushing in the future of the Royals and the remainder of the season will be marked by more delusions, so here are the Top 5:
#1 Ned Yost Loves Hot Guys: He said it: “In fairness to (Giavotella),” Yost said, “he only had 35 at-bats. I understand that. But we’ve got to go. It’s time to go. We want to make sure we’ve got as many hot guys in that lineup that we can get in it.” This is Ned's justification for the recall of Chris Getz. Getz is SO HOT right now there should be a warning label on the back of his jersey instead of his name. A .313 hitter in AAA, that kind of bat has to be in the line-up, never mind the guy who in just shy of 1,500 major league plate appearances has a slugging percentage of .313. I'm done.
#2 Hosmer is Awesome: All of this Eric Hosmer is on-fire, George Brett unleashed the monster, he's back talk needs to slow down. Yes, he finally started hitting home runs again and now has almost as many as Vernon Wells! However, he still trails Chris Davis by 28 so lets hold off on the excitement until it is really warranted. He's about an average offensive player, he still has a long way to go until we can get excited about him in the future. Don't get me wrong, I like to see those HRs as much as anyone, but he's not even Mike Sweeney yet.
#3 Mike Moustakas is coming around: Yes, Since June 1st he's raised his average from below .180 all the way to .215. Sorry this isn't progress, just going from being really bad and having really bad luck to just being really bad. I'm really not sure who Mike Moustakas is going to be, but right now he's quite simply one of the top 5 worst hitting everyday players in baseball.
#4 Alcides Escobar, short stop extraordinaire: He's right there with Moustakas for worst everyday hitters in the AL, but he hits second in the line-up because he is really good at bunting. Ned Yost and the 2-hole is probably some of the most overworked territory on the Royals Blogger circuit, but it's because IT IS STUPID to have the guy with a .277 OBP getting the second most ABs in the line-up. If this doesn't change in the second half, we know Ned Yost is certifiable. Bunts, good speed and nice backhanded plays on defense, don't allow you to bat in one of the most important places in the line-up, this is just wrong. Alcides Escobar is an average major league SS, nothing more, no matter how many times Rex Hudler calls him a ballerina dancer.
#5 The Royals can compete in 2013: We covered this briefly in the outset, but it's not going to happen. The Royals need to be realistic and actually open the local newspaper or any one of a hundred internet websites and look at the standings. Sorry Dayton, it was a nice try but the Tigers better; Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera make Alex Gordon and Billy Butler look like Chris Getz and Jeff Francouer. It's over, be smart make the right moves for 2014 and keep with your perpetual testing of our patience year after year, but I'm sure NEXT year we'll really, really, finally be ready to win.
Tuesday, July 2, 2013
Treading Water (Thanks Detroit!)
When the PBR suggested that the Royals take advantage of their remaining weak schedule in June, a 4-5 run wasn't exactly what we had in mind. However, thankfully Detroit has been equally sub-par and despite the missed opportunity, the Royals find themselves in third place and a deceivingly close 4.5 games back in the standings. The calendar has flipped to July and the Royals are suddenly in a new phase of the season where Eric Hosmer is hitting HRs again, Mike Moustakas is north of the Mendoza, David Lough is making us forget about Wil Myers, James Shields and Ervin Santana are getting run support and Johnny Giavotella isn't in the minors. But those are all of the positive things going on, we will hold off on painting the rosey picture until the Royals are above .500. For now, we are going to do what we do best, beat dead horses....
Horse #1: C'est la vie Frenchy. Poor Dayton Moore had to put down his favorite old horse, he had been trying to convince the world that there was still life left in old Mr. Frenchy, but the vet finally got through to Moore and he was sent to the glue factory on Saturday night. As opportunistic bloggers, how should we react to this news? Should we hyperlink the 20 posts when we mentioned that signing him for two years was a bad idea? Should we go the soft route and talk about how it was a good signing at the time, but unfortunately it just didn't work out and kudos to Dayton for knowing when to pull the plug? Should we be realistic and separate the man from the decision and say that cutting an overpaid 5th outfielder is a relatively easy decision? Having paid $13.5 million for two years of service from the worst RF in baseball will naturally make Dayton Moore look like a bit of a fool, but in the history of overpriced MLB outfielder contracts this one is far from the worst. The one thing that made it so bad was when Ned and Moore refused to see what everyone else did, but recently it was clear that Frenchy had lost his job and this last move helps to prove that they aren't so blind, so there really isn't much to fault them for in this years use of Frenchy. If day one of the post Frenchy era was any indication of what is to come then we're probably going to win the World Series. However, the truth is, all the Royals have to do is replace Frenchy with an average player, he was so bad that ANYTHING was going to be better. Au Revior Frenchy, you made us laugh, cry and yell at the TV more than any Royals player in history, congrats.
Horse #2: Wade Davis-Luke Hochevar comps. It was all going in the right direction, Wade Davis had gone four starts without allowing more than two runs, he had his ERA back under 5.00 and then came Saturdays 1 IP, 5ER masterpiece. Now we have to start asking the questions again. Is he more suited for the bullpen? When will Danny Duffy be ready to replace him? Does Dayton more look like a giant sucker for taking him in the Myers-Shields deal? In my professional scouting opinion, Davis' problem seems to be that he gives up too many hits and walks too many batters, which is to say he isn't a very good pitcher. As good as James Shields has been, if you combine their numbers you have exactly 200 IP with a 4.05 ERA; this is much closer to two more Jeremy Guthries than the dominant Ace and #3 starter we would like to see. The point is, Wade Davis' performance has been bad enough to completely offset the dominance of James Shields, so if he doesn't pick it up soon things will have to change. We all want Davis to be better, but we wanted Jeremey Affelt to be better, we wanted Kyle Davies to be better and we wanted Luke Hochevar to be better, but they weren't and Davis might not be anything more than promise either. The real question is how long the Royals let this be talked about before they act? Hopefully the Tampa Bay Ray in Davis shows itself and he comes around to be a solid starter for the rest of the year, but if not there will be another driver for the Dayton Moore is an Idiot bandwagon.
Horse #3: Giavotella over Gets, Finally! The question as to why Chris Getz got so many opportunities will never be answered. The short answer is that Ned and Dayton always wanted him to be the coaches favorite little Jimmy Hustle player who bunts well, plays great defense, gets on base, runs fast, does the little things, blah blah blah. As much as they wanted this, Getz never became that player no matter how many times Ned hit him leadoff or second. The PBR is one of the Royals Blog league leaders in negative words written about Chris Getz, but the truth is nobody would have ever noticed the immortal Getzie if Hosmer and Moustakas were Trout and Machado. He could have been just the irrelevant 9-hole hitter if the Royals big hitters were actually big hitters, but unfortunately our middle of the order is just middling. Again, Getz was so bad that anything would have been an improvement and hopefully Gio will keep this up just enough so that we never have to see Getz again, but I don´t think we just added vintage Dustin Pedroia to our line-up. Time will tell, but as long as I don´t have to write another word questioning Ned Yost´s decision to bat Getzie second (that will be reserved for Alcides Escobar, soon), I will be happy.
Horse #4: Eric Hosmer is hitting HRs (fingers crossed).
This...
is the only thing that can make us forget about this...
No questions about it, if the Royals get right this year, it will be because of the former.
Horse #5: The Royals need to get to .500. This is perhaps the most overused phrase associated with losing teams. Yes, it is historically impossible to make the playoffs when you don´t get to .500, but the dream of chasing .500 means that you are currently a loser. Short of trading for Giancarlo Stanton and Chase Utley, the Royals have pulled out all of the stops to be a winning team this year. With the Detroit Tigers trying their best to prove that the AL Central is the worst division in baseball, the Royals have done nothing to take advantage of this. Just because someone else is losing doesn´t make you a winner, you still have to win games. So hopefully as the Wil Myers vs. David Lough Rookie of the Year debate heats up, so will the Royals. Talking about getting to .500 needs to give way to being over .500 and not having to talk about .500 EVER. It is exactly the mark of mediocrity, if that's what the Royals are shooting for so be it, but right now thye are just reinforcing the fact that they´re not even mediocre. That's the Royals in a nutshell.
Horse #1: C'est la vie Frenchy. Poor Dayton Moore had to put down his favorite old horse, he had been trying to convince the world that there was still life left in old Mr. Frenchy, but the vet finally got through to Moore and he was sent to the glue factory on Saturday night. As opportunistic bloggers, how should we react to this news? Should we hyperlink the 20 posts when we mentioned that signing him for two years was a bad idea? Should we go the soft route and talk about how it was a good signing at the time, but unfortunately it just didn't work out and kudos to Dayton for knowing when to pull the plug? Should we be realistic and separate the man from the decision and say that cutting an overpaid 5th outfielder is a relatively easy decision? Having paid $13.5 million for two years of service from the worst RF in baseball will naturally make Dayton Moore look like a bit of a fool, but in the history of overpriced MLB outfielder contracts this one is far from the worst. The one thing that made it so bad was when Ned and Moore refused to see what everyone else did, but recently it was clear that Frenchy had lost his job and this last move helps to prove that they aren't so blind, so there really isn't much to fault them for in this years use of Frenchy. If day one of the post Frenchy era was any indication of what is to come then we're probably going to win the World Series. However, the truth is, all the Royals have to do is replace Frenchy with an average player, he was so bad that ANYTHING was going to be better. Au Revior Frenchy, you made us laugh, cry and yell at the TV more than any Royals player in history, congrats.
Horse #2: Wade Davis-Luke Hochevar comps. It was all going in the right direction, Wade Davis had gone four starts without allowing more than two runs, he had his ERA back under 5.00 and then came Saturdays 1 IP, 5ER masterpiece. Now we have to start asking the questions again. Is he more suited for the bullpen? When will Danny Duffy be ready to replace him? Does Dayton more look like a giant sucker for taking him in the Myers-Shields deal? In my professional scouting opinion, Davis' problem seems to be that he gives up too many hits and walks too many batters, which is to say he isn't a very good pitcher. As good as James Shields has been, if you combine their numbers you have exactly 200 IP with a 4.05 ERA; this is much closer to two more Jeremy Guthries than the dominant Ace and #3 starter we would like to see. The point is, Wade Davis' performance has been bad enough to completely offset the dominance of James Shields, so if he doesn't pick it up soon things will have to change. We all want Davis to be better, but we wanted Jeremey Affelt to be better, we wanted Kyle Davies to be better and we wanted Luke Hochevar to be better, but they weren't and Davis might not be anything more than promise either. The real question is how long the Royals let this be talked about before they act? Hopefully the Tampa Bay Ray in Davis shows itself and he comes around to be a solid starter for the rest of the year, but if not there will be another driver for the Dayton Moore is an Idiot bandwagon.
Horse #3: Giavotella over Gets, Finally! The question as to why Chris Getz got so many opportunities will never be answered. The short answer is that Ned and Dayton always wanted him to be the coaches favorite little Jimmy Hustle player who bunts well, plays great defense, gets on base, runs fast, does the little things, blah blah blah. As much as they wanted this, Getz never became that player no matter how many times Ned hit him leadoff or second. The PBR is one of the Royals Blog league leaders in negative words written about Chris Getz, but the truth is nobody would have ever noticed the immortal Getzie if Hosmer and Moustakas were Trout and Machado. He could have been just the irrelevant 9-hole hitter if the Royals big hitters were actually big hitters, but unfortunately our middle of the order is just middling. Again, Getz was so bad that anything would have been an improvement and hopefully Gio will keep this up just enough so that we never have to see Getz again, but I don´t think we just added vintage Dustin Pedroia to our line-up. Time will tell, but as long as I don´t have to write another word questioning Ned Yost´s decision to bat Getzie second (that will be reserved for Alcides Escobar, soon), I will be happy.
Horse #4: Eric Hosmer is hitting HRs (fingers crossed).
This...
is the only thing that can make us forget about this...
Horse #5: The Royals need to get to .500. This is perhaps the most overused phrase associated with losing teams. Yes, it is historically impossible to make the playoffs when you don´t get to .500, but the dream of chasing .500 means that you are currently a loser. Short of trading for Giancarlo Stanton and Chase Utley, the Royals have pulled out all of the stops to be a winning team this year. With the Detroit Tigers trying their best to prove that the AL Central is the worst division in baseball, the Royals have done nothing to take advantage of this. Just because someone else is losing doesn´t make you a winner, you still have to win games. So hopefully as the Wil Myers vs. David Lough Rookie of the Year debate heats up, so will the Royals. Talking about getting to .500 needs to give way to being over .500 and not having to talk about .500 EVER. It is exactly the mark of mediocrity, if that's what the Royals are shooting for so be it, but right now thye are just reinforcing the fact that they´re not even mediocre. That's the Royals in a nutshell.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)