Win, loose or draw on the Jonathan Broxton trade, The Powder Blue Room would like to issue a small courtesy golf clap for Ned Yost in the spirit of resourcefulness. Everyone has probably heard the story about the hunting trip where Ned, Jeff Francoeur and he-haw funny guy Jeff Foxworthy sent the white tail dear of LaGrange, GA into survival mode. In short, it was a recruiting trip (hunting trip), set up by old Ned, who included his apparent friend Jeff Foxworthy.
Finally, something on the Yankees and Boston in the competitive advantage category. Baseball managers don't get to diagram plays or any of the PlayStation involvement of a football or basketball coach. American League managers don't even get to get involved in the game of double-switch. But Ned apparently got tired of the front office guys hogging all the joey-deal-making fun and set out to get in on the game himself.
But Kansas City has a manager pulling his weight, and quite frankly, we like to see it. The logistics of the signing will be covered in a later post and what effect the hunting trip had on the signing is intangible at best. If you saw the photo of Dayton standing next to Broxton at the press conference what is not intangible are the dimensions of this guy. Whoever built the dear-stand for Team Foxworthy back in LaGrange, probably had to run out and reinforce some of the stand's structural members prior to Mr. Broxton entering the premises. We have not yet received the tapes of the wire-taps we placed in the deer-stand, but we are sure the transcripts will show a highly cultured, literate and dignified set of words spoken amongst the trio. How many times Broxton told Jeff to "tell me a joke" will be part of a future Powder Blue Room poll, so stay tuned.
So kudos to Ned Yost, out there doing the hustle, making things shake where he can. Something tells us that Joe Torre never grabbed a dear rifle and Captain Derek to set out into the forest in hope of luring a player to the Bronx.
Thursday, December 1, 2011
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
Dayton ruins Royals' rumor season
After so much talk Dayton just couldn't help himself to a "high upside" starter right out of the gates. This just ruined the next few months of speculating about the Royals involvement in hundreds of trade scenarios throughout the offseason. There was so much potential for the Royals to be the darlings of rumor season with their search for an opening day starter and a wealth of prospects to deal. But in the end Dayton executed his patented Dayton Moore Strike Early Trade. I have to say that I'm a big fan of the trade just for record. However, it still doesn't mean I'm not disappointed that I can't talk about what I think the Royals should and shouldn't do for the next few months.
The fact that I wanted to see Lorenzo Cain starting in center field on opening day has now been realized and with the ancillary benefit of getting a good starter, albeit with a huge asterisk mark. Dayton Moore has loved to trade/sign to get the downtrodden player with upside since day one and this is probably his best yet. Moore struck fools gold with Melky and Frenchy last season and turned it into a starting pitcher and a starting right fielder for the next two years. But this latest move -- along with the assumption that they are mostly done for the offseason -- leads me to believe that Dayton is operating under the prospect hoarding, still one-year-away theory and I'm disappointed. When Dayton declared himself ready to trade prospects for a talented pitcher at the outset of the offseaon it triggered an initial flurry of rumors that had me imagining the Royals with a completely new starting rotation and real hope of contention. But after the dust has settled from this trade, it is still the same old Moore waiting for his beloved prospects to single handily lead charge for the AL Central crown. Melky for Sanchez is about the safest bet in trades Dayton could have made.
Moore's strategy is obviously working but the Royals are still fighting battles and not wars. Is having Jonathan Sanchez in the starting rotation along with Lorenzo Cain in CF going to make the Royals a winner? Not very likely. Would having that along with getting great seasons from Moustakas, Perez, Hosmer, Duffy AND Montgomery? Yes, that might be enough. I guess it is the smart play, but I'm still waiting to see if Moore has the ability to take a big risk. Trading Melky for Sanchez has almost no downside, re-signing Bruce Chen won't hurt you, giving Frenchy a two-year extension can't cripple you and waiting on minor league arms doesn't sink you, but it also doesn't provide you with the immediate satisfaction a long-time Royals fan needs.
I hope the waiting game works, but not dangling your top prospects for real solutions at starting pitcher would just be bad business. Cashing in on minor league talent is the best competitive advantage which the Royals currently have and you never know when the expiration date is on that currency. They are still a winning season away from being taken seriously by quality free agents, and the Jonathan Sanchez trade gets them closer to success if and only if every thing else goes well. It was a good trade, but only if you measure success in terms of baby steps. Dayton, one day you'll have to take big-boy steps. Are we there yet???
The fact that I wanted to see Lorenzo Cain starting in center field on opening day has now been realized and with the ancillary benefit of getting a good starter, albeit with a huge asterisk mark. Dayton Moore has loved to trade/sign to get the downtrodden player with upside since day one and this is probably his best yet. Moore struck fools gold with Melky and Frenchy last season and turned it into a starting pitcher and a starting right fielder for the next two years. But this latest move -- along with the assumption that they are mostly done for the offseason -- leads me to believe that Dayton is operating under the prospect hoarding, still one-year-away theory and I'm disappointed. When Dayton declared himself ready to trade prospects for a talented pitcher at the outset of the offseaon it triggered an initial flurry of rumors that had me imagining the Royals with a completely new starting rotation and real hope of contention. But after the dust has settled from this trade, it is still the same old Moore waiting for his beloved prospects to single handily lead charge for the AL Central crown. Melky for Sanchez is about the safest bet in trades Dayton could have made.
Moore's strategy is obviously working but the Royals are still fighting battles and not wars. Is having Jonathan Sanchez in the starting rotation along with Lorenzo Cain in CF going to make the Royals a winner? Not very likely. Would having that along with getting great seasons from Moustakas, Perez, Hosmer, Duffy AND Montgomery? Yes, that might be enough. I guess it is the smart play, but I'm still waiting to see if Moore has the ability to take a big risk. Trading Melky for Sanchez has almost no downside, re-signing Bruce Chen won't hurt you, giving Frenchy a two-year extension can't cripple you and waiting on minor league arms doesn't sink you, but it also doesn't provide you with the immediate satisfaction a long-time Royals fan needs.
I hope the waiting game works, but not dangling your top prospects for real solutions at starting pitcher would just be bad business. Cashing in on minor league talent is the best competitive advantage which the Royals currently have and you never know when the expiration date is on that currency. They are still a winning season away from being taken seriously by quality free agents, and the Jonathan Sanchez trade gets them closer to success if and only if every thing else goes well. It was a good trade, but only if you measure success in terms of baby steps. Dayton, one day you'll have to take big-boy steps. Are we there yet???
Monday, November 21, 2011
26 years and counting...
In case you just came back from a spiritual mission to India and missed the Royals season...they didn't make the playoffs. Yes, again. That makes 26 years, but who's counting? Actually, we here at the Powder Blue Room are counting. So what's the excuse this time? Given that this article is a month behind schedule, we'll keep it short, because you most likely already know the answer.
Pitching: Like the title of a certain Bob Seager song (not the one from the old Chevy truck ads) it was still the same. Except for the bullpen, except for Joakim Soria. Bruce Chen was still the same, but in a good way. Kyle Davies was still the same, but in a much much worse way. Felipe Paulino was a nice surprise, Jeff Francis was not. Luke Hochevar took some nice steps forward (mainly staying healthy), but they were taken way too late to be of much importance (next, year Hoch!). Teaford looked like he's worth a shot next year but on the other hand Vinny and O'Sullivan look like Omaha lifers. For all of the progress made in the set-up area of the bullpen Joakim had a very bad year and undeniably cost the team wins as the closer. Not to mention that Aaron Crow and Tim Collins really fizzled down the stretch. The two biggest question marks for next season might be if Joakim can reestablish himself as a dominant closer, and if Aaron Crow can transition into an average starter. This would be the best and most efficient way to improve both sides of the pitching without any external moves; and it appears that after the Sanchez trade the Royals are done making big moves in the rotation. As bad as the starting rotation was this year, if we come out of spring training with Sanchez #1, Paulino #2, Hochevar #3, Duffy #4 and Crow/Teaford/Montgomery #5, I'll take it (and so would most Royals fans, I think).
Offense: I have to say that this was actually fun to watch this year. The outfield just didn't stop all year. Seriously, who saw this one coming? Not I said the PBR. Okay one of the three outfielders finally living up to expectations I'd have bought that, two would have moved my skepticism needle into the red, but all three having career years was actually quite impressive/improbable/unbelievable/made-for-TV-movie worthy. Around the infield; Betemit was good and even better for Detroit. Moustakas was good (in September), Escobar was great (for two weeks), Getz doesn't exist to me, nor in any real offensive category. Eric Hosmer made me question my sexual orientation. The catchers weren't bad and then came Sal Perez who caught like Ivan Rodriguez and hit like Mike Piazza, in other words he's a keeper. I miss Mike Aviles, but I'll live. Johnny Giavotella looked great at times and also looked like someone who is 5'8'' trying to hit major league pitching at other times. The Royals 2012 million dollar question is can Lorenzo Cain hit? If the answer to that is yes and everything else stays the course, it should be another fun year watching the Royals hit lots of doubles at the K.
Defense: One step forward, two steps backward. If you just looked at shortstop range and outfield assists then you might come to the conclusion that it was the best ever. But unfortunately for the Royals, centerfielders in Kaufman have to cover a lot of ground. While Melky's offseason weight loss plan worked wonders at the plate, it didn't make him into Willie Mays with the glove. Throw in Alex and Frenchy, and the Royals had three above average corner outfielders trying to cover all three positions and it almost worked. However, the infield is where the real mystery unfolds. Obviously Escobar was great, but he makes up exactly 1/4th of the positions. At second base we had a defensive specialist who just wasn't that special (Getzie) and two offensive specialists that were especially bad with the glove (Giovatella and Aviles). All of that equals not good. At first we had the Golden Boy who looked like Mark Grace to me, but whose numbers looked more like Billy Butler (I'm just as surprised as you). Hosmer, worse than Ryan Howard, really? And third base was probably the biggest defensive black hole the team had; Wilson led the ineptitude, followed closely by Aviles and the jury is still out on Moutsakas (I think he looks terrible just for the record). Then at catcher the Royals pretty much tread water until the last month when Sir Sal came up to demonstrate just exactly how a real catcher is supposed to look behind the plate. If you're looking for 2012 prognostications, this is the easiest place to upgrade. By simply swapping Cain for Melky the Royals have already upgraded a lot. Getting a full season behind the plate from Perez should show up as well, even though it wasn't a black hole. And just by letting Hosmer's correction take effect this should also make them better. Second base isn't so easy, but Escobar can make up for one below average defender. At third, well...surprise me Moose (oh and don't forget to hit 30HRs!). I guess the real question here is do you believe the old football axiom "Defense wins Championships" or did you watch the St. Louis Cardinals hit their way to a World Series?
The Royals have a long way to go in 2012 but for once that distance can be made up without an unrealistic amount of help. The pieces are actually there for once, everything still has to go really well for the Royals, but It's not like believing in Ken Harvey and Jeremy Affelt, is it? I have to say that the odds of stopping the streak at 26 seasons without playoff baseball might be at an all time low in KC.
Pitching: Like the title of a certain Bob Seager song (not the one from the old Chevy truck ads) it was still the same. Except for the bullpen, except for Joakim Soria. Bruce Chen was still the same, but in a good way. Kyle Davies was still the same, but in a much much worse way. Felipe Paulino was a nice surprise, Jeff Francis was not. Luke Hochevar took some nice steps forward (mainly staying healthy), but they were taken way too late to be of much importance (next, year Hoch!). Teaford looked like he's worth a shot next year but on the other hand Vinny and O'Sullivan look like Omaha lifers. For all of the progress made in the set-up area of the bullpen Joakim had a very bad year and undeniably cost the team wins as the closer. Not to mention that Aaron Crow and Tim Collins really fizzled down the stretch. The two biggest question marks for next season might be if Joakim can reestablish himself as a dominant closer, and if Aaron Crow can transition into an average starter. This would be the best and most efficient way to improve both sides of the pitching without any external moves; and it appears that after the Sanchez trade the Royals are done making big moves in the rotation. As bad as the starting rotation was this year, if we come out of spring training with Sanchez #1, Paulino #2, Hochevar #3, Duffy #4 and Crow/Teaford/Montgomery #5, I'll take it (and so would most Royals fans, I think).
Offense: I have to say that this was actually fun to watch this year. The outfield just didn't stop all year. Seriously, who saw this one coming? Not I said the PBR. Okay one of the three outfielders finally living up to expectations I'd have bought that, two would have moved my skepticism needle into the red, but all three having career years was actually quite impressive/improbable/unbelievable/made-for-TV-movie worthy. Around the infield; Betemit was good and even better for Detroit. Moustakas was good (in September), Escobar was great (for two weeks), Getz doesn't exist to me, nor in any real offensive category. Eric Hosmer made me question my sexual orientation. The catchers weren't bad and then came Sal Perez who caught like Ivan Rodriguez and hit like Mike Piazza, in other words he's a keeper. I miss Mike Aviles, but I'll live. Johnny Giavotella looked great at times and also looked like someone who is 5'8'' trying to hit major league pitching at other times. The Royals 2012 million dollar question is can Lorenzo Cain hit? If the answer to that is yes and everything else stays the course, it should be another fun year watching the Royals hit lots of doubles at the K.
Defense: One step forward, two steps backward. If you just looked at shortstop range and outfield assists then you might come to the conclusion that it was the best ever. But unfortunately for the Royals, centerfielders in Kaufman have to cover a lot of ground. While Melky's offseason weight loss plan worked wonders at the plate, it didn't make him into Willie Mays with the glove. Throw in Alex and Frenchy, and the Royals had three above average corner outfielders trying to cover all three positions and it almost worked. However, the infield is where the real mystery unfolds. Obviously Escobar was great, but he makes up exactly 1/4th of the positions. At second base we had a defensive specialist who just wasn't that special (Getzie) and two offensive specialists that were especially bad with the glove (Giovatella and Aviles). All of that equals not good. At first we had the Golden Boy who looked like Mark Grace to me, but whose numbers looked more like Billy Butler (I'm just as surprised as you). Hosmer, worse than Ryan Howard, really? And third base was probably the biggest defensive black hole the team had; Wilson led the ineptitude, followed closely by Aviles and the jury is still out on Moutsakas (I think he looks terrible just for the record). Then at catcher the Royals pretty much tread water until the last month when Sir Sal came up to demonstrate just exactly how a real catcher is supposed to look behind the plate. If you're looking for 2012 prognostications, this is the easiest place to upgrade. By simply swapping Cain for Melky the Royals have already upgraded a lot. Getting a full season behind the plate from Perez should show up as well, even though it wasn't a black hole. And just by letting Hosmer's correction take effect this should also make them better. Second base isn't so easy, but Escobar can make up for one below average defender. At third, well...surprise me Moose (oh and don't forget to hit 30HRs!). I guess the real question here is do you believe the old football axiom "Defense wins Championships" or did you watch the St. Louis Cardinals hit their way to a World Series?
The Royals have a long way to go in 2012 but for once that distance can be made up without an unrealistic amount of help. The pieces are actually there for once, everything still has to go really well for the Royals, but It's not like believing in Ken Harvey and Jeremy Affelt, is it? I have to say that the odds of stopping the streak at 26 seasons without playoff baseball might be at an all time low in KC.
Sunday, September 25, 2011
Taking Stock: The September Issue
Vogue does it, so does the Powder Blue Room. Last time the PBR held a share holders meeting, the team looked somewhat different and we left off a few names, but this time we're covering the entire (pre September Call-ups) roster. The Royals are playing some classically optimistic September baseball, but is it a Blue Chip waiting to pay dividends for years to come or a Credit Default Swap waiting to bankrupt all naive investors. Lucky for you your friendly investment specialists from the Powder Blue Room (financial services division) are here to help:
The Players
Melky Cabrera: Gloating is pretty much the main impetus for why anyone would write a blog, and last time we nailed Melky to a T. It still didn't stop Dayton from signing Frenchy to a long-term deal and ignoring the advice of the PBR Hedge Fund. The problem is that Melky is a good stock to have in YOUR portfolio, but no one is dying to pay more than it's worth to have it in their portfolio. So Dayton will go into the offseason looking to trade Melky and cash in, but I think he's going to be disappointed when the Philles don't offer Cole Hamels for him. After his surge, he's now just a Hold, no longer a buy. Good luck finding a buyer Dayton, you know he's not a CF, right?
Alex Gordon: I want so badly to take profits and look for another downtrodden stock to flip, but I can't bring myself to pull the trigger. If his stock goes any higher - in terms of real, not perceived value - the Royals have themselves a legit star. However, when he sprains a pinkie finger that keeps him out of the line-up all next year, this season will be a distant memory. I have a feeling Dayton is ready to put about $50 mil into the GORDON Homegrown STAR fund; it's a play you have to make regardless of the pure logic behind the situation, so I concur. I'm still scared every time the stock loses value that it won't recover, but let's go all in on Gordon and if we get burned, then so be it. We need look no further than Minnesota and Joe Mauer to see a cautionary tale, but Gordon is still about $130 mil cheaper risk. At this point nobody can really come back and say you shouldn't have bought into GORDON stock, so go long and get as many options as you can.
Jeff Francouer: There is a certain GM who feels this is a good stock and there is still a certain Royals' blog which feels it's going to tank. Right now Francouer is very good and Dayton has the right to say "I told you so" to the legions of Frenchy doubters out there, but even the best odds would give Frenchy a 50/50 shot at repeating this year's performance. And if the coin flip lands on the wrong side, majority share holder's Dayton Co. will be left with another overextended asset clogging up space in your portfolio. I didn't buy when it was cheap, I didn't buy when it went up and down early this year, and I'm certainly not going to buy the FRENCHY Veteran Leader Index Growth fund while it's at a new 52 week high. I'm more than willing to be wrong on this pass, I'll take my chances.
Mitch Maier: Does anyone even remember the ticker symbol for this stock? Given that 500 shares of Maier Inc. costs about as much as a frozen pizza, I recommend buying. I can easily see someone else taking over Maier Inc. and squeezing more value out than the Royals seem to get (The Tampa Bay Hedge Fund, maybe?).
Billy Butler: The Billy Butler Dividend Fund is a must have for every investor. You are going to get a 4.5% yield and its going to come every three months. Billy should fire the compensation committee (his agents) that gave CEO Dayton a true club option that will reduce the window of his most profitable re-sign years with no upside. But that's not the Royals' problem, because they hold that long term call option at around $13 million if they want it. It’s fun to be in a good position and that is what the Royals are in here. Billy Co. is going to crank out steady value and don’t forget that he’s still a year shy of the Jamesian Peak Earnings Age. Buy steadily (using dollar cost averaging).
Bryan Pena: See Mitch Maier.
Salvador Perez: What a turn of events. Dayton makes the typical CEO mistake of drastically overpaying for Jason Kendall stock because he went to business school, where they teach you that purchasing a mature catching company as part of an acquisition spree will create "synergies" (game calling), "vertical integration" (leadership) and help "diversify" (veteran) your product line. These are all horrible reasons for a team such as the Royals to open their wallet. The Powder Blue Room offers an online MBA course for GM's of small market, lower tier revenue clubs. The course contains one Power Point slide. It is a white back ground with black letters that say "Find Young Talent Cheaply". That's it. Nothing there about "veteran leadership", "delight in the clubhouse", "ability to call a game" etc... These are all reasonable qualities in a stock, but the Royals need talent. Worry about the other stuff when you bust into the Dow Jones Industrial Index.
Salvador Perez is a stock that is still flying under the radar, but probably not for long. He can barley buy a shot of Patron, yet he is major league listed. This is where an analyst needs to walk the factory floor. Not too many analysts walk the floor of The K these days and they are missing an opportunity. If you watch closely you will see that his defense as a catcher is actually fun to watch. Really, this is true. He looks pretty blocking balls. The safety is always off on the cannon. Catching does not look difficult for him. Keep in mind that catching at the major league level is extremely difficult.
If he can monetize his online hitting platform, you are looking at an early retirement. If he doesn't you will probably get your money back. At the current stock price you are looking at "heads I win, tails I don't lose that much". Take advantage of everyone that read the analysts' reports (Baseball America) that said he is only a defensive catcher before they look at his game film, buy and don't stop until you hit early retirement.
Chris Getz: Even Dayton and Ned finally sold this one. When you have 8 extra base hits in over 400 plate appearances, you're not a major league starter. Now that I don't have to evaluate him as such, we can finally put a fair valuation on Chris. As a pinch runner and back-up to the back-up infielder, he's perfectly fine, I'd even buy at that price. As long as I don't have to write another article about why he is hitting leadoff, then all is cool between the PBR and the Getzie Coaches’ Kid Fund. Buy very, very, very, very low.
Erik Hosmer: Hosmer plays baseball like Bill Gates codes C++. It’s just what he does. That is how we feel about Hosmer stock. He just looks like he can play baseball. He looks good against quality pitching. He looks good catching the ball. He looks good adjusting his cap. He looks good smiling at the camera. He looks good chewing tobacco. He looks good cleaning his fingernails…you get the idea.
Of course, it’s all about price and Hosmer stock isn't a cheap stock. The stock price has him fairly valued.....for the most part. But Hosmer stock is similar to a large retail company that owns all the land under its stores and the market is missing it. Hosmer is valued as a prospect in the mold of Moustakas stock, but he has clearly already passed that and is soon to be compared with the Texiera large cap first base funds. You don't really have a choice here. You've got to buy a little high and hope to sell higher. There is a good chance the current price is going to look dirt cheap in a couple of years. Don't let your neighbors laugh and speak ill of you on the 16th hole, buy the stock.
Johnny Giavotella: Wildly overvalued from the get-go, but who wouldn't like this stock? Always undervalued (he's 5'8", haven't you heard), but with real potential (extra base power). My valuations of him were always based on the fact the he couldn't have been worse than Getz, but I still advocated for the Aviles fund to be kept around (He's hitting .340 for the RED SOX, by the way). I'm actually quite curious about this stock, so I own a few shares just for fun. I could see a Dustin Pedroia ALLSTAR Index Fund or I could see Cris Getz beating him out for the job next year. It's probably one of the more interesting stocks in the Royals portfolio, so you might as well have a few shares.
Alcides Escobar: Alcides is like buying a Jackson Pollack painting. If you’re already rich it’s fun to show off, but if you’re broke you should probably sell it and pay employees that make money for you. I like to look at Alcides too, but I’ve been reading the Dayton Moore Investor’s Report and he’s convinced that this is a necessary piece to have in your portfolio. It’s not. He’s still one of the worst hitters in baseball, yes worse than YUNI. That backhand is awesome, but he’s still burning through cash with his OBP. If you can find another art collector who’ll give you 10x what you paid then take it and build another factory. If not keep looking at it and hope you get rich enough to buy a room for it.
Mike Moustakas: What to do? If you looked through a catalogue of baseball stocks and saw a 3B stock under 6'-0", slightly pudgy, not very smooth in the field (or overall for that matter), you certainly would not pay the price that Dayton Moore is probably currently asking. This is where the Powder Blue Room analysts have their questions. Inside our glass encased, sound proof, off-shore conference room, the PBR has had many a conference call stating our reservations about picking up a big block of Moose stock. We like our blue chips to look, act and move like one. Moose stock sure doesn't look like Erik Hosmer stock. He doesn't walk like Hosmer stock, isn’t nearly as smooth; he doesn't even throw the ball back to the pitcher in same suave fashion that Hosmer does. We are well aware that one can't make an investment decision based on the company printed annual report, but we like our blue chip stocks to look and act the part.
It’s nice to see Moose stock end the year hitting well, but if Dayton called and said we could trade him back to Milwaukee for a controlling stake in Greinke Co., we’d give the order to pull out of Moose stock. You could try and hedge, but don't bother, the rest of the league has already beat you to that position. If you can find a sucker SELL. Otherwise; dance with whom you brought.
Nate Adcock: Nate is like a Farmers National Bank Platnium Select Savings Account; everybody should have a few bucks in a savings account because it will be there when you need it. However, no team has ever won the World Series with the Nate Adcocks of the world. And whether or not Nate is in Japan next season or pitching for the Royals he won't suddenly make you a 90 win team. Not a Buy, but if you've got a few bucks tucked away in an Adcock 1yr CD, just save it for a rainy day.
Louis Coleman: This stock has taken a beating lately. People who bought high are now stuck taking losses, but if he's your fourth best reliever, all is well with your bullpen. Hold.
Tim Collins: Little Timmy is like an Airline stock. Sometimes you wonder how he isn't better than he is; people fly, they spend a lot of money to do so, so why can't airlines make money? Timmy's left handed, strikes out a lot of people and has a crazy delivery. But wait he's walked more people than Jeff Francis in over 100 less innings. Also, lefties hit about as well as do righties; so he's not a lefty specialist, not a closer and not a set-up guy, I'd sell.
Aaron Crow: Last time we advised staying away from this stock due to the unreliability of relief pitchers. Since then he was named an All-Star, briefly made the closer and then his ERA went up 1.5 runs (supposedly he was hurt) and now he's not even the set-up man. If Crow isn't a starter, then what is he? Turns out, he's probably a flash-in-the-pan bullpen guy. I'll keep my fingers crossed, but I'm still staying away from the CROW Fund until he does what he did earlier in the year for seven innings every fifth day.
Greg Holland: Like all reliever stock, the Holland stock is overvalued, but I still really like it. The SO/BB ratio is just what you want to see from a dominant reliever...Joakim, watch your job. I'd buy this stock, it's probably still got room to grow.
Joakim Soria: Oh Joakim, why couldn't you have just kept your real nickname? Now you're just OKAY, you're not what you have been and we don't know what that means going forward. I suppose you'll get the job again next year as long as you stay healthy, but you're just not an exciting stock to own anymore. I'm still holding, but it's mainly because I overextended myself buying your stock over the past few years.
Everett Teaford: Apparently it was Everett who was mislabeled as a small cap lefty specialist. As a starter he strikes out about 9/game and dominates (until Saturday). Even though the PBR usually likes to have more data, this stock is still cheap and could fill in the hole of the hopefully departing Jeff Francis and Bruce Chen. Buy a few shares of this one and see what happens.
Blake Wood: If Blake can keep it together for the rest of the year, then at best he's the fourth piece in a big trade (see Jeremy Jeffress), but that's about it. Nothing to see here, move along. He's essentially a functioning factory on a heavy equipment manufacturers' asset sheet. Keep using it until it breaks, but if it breaks the company will keep going without missing a beat.
Felipe Paulino: The broker you have in your "market assisted brokerage account" called you up and pushed you to buy "boatloads" of Paulino in June. He said it was a young stock all the analysts were talking about because the company had recently moved into the high profit starting pitching industry. You didn't buy and your golf buddies made fun of you as the market began to warm to what is a somewhat promising growth stock.
However, the market is brutal to growth stocks that don't constantly grow and a couple of rough starts sent the stock off its 52 week high. Now the question is whether or not Paulino is worth buying now that it is trading at a valuation where growth is already accounted for in the price. Taking in the Royals’ other options in the starting pitcher market it’s a very strong Hold, hopefully you bought early.
Bruce Chen: The Powder Blue Room was short on Bruce Chen stock so hard it made the protagonists in Michael Lewis' The Big Short look like they were playing nickel slots. Any Powder Blue Room trader found to be holding a long position in the stock was immediately fired and ordered to watch a full season of Jose Guillen playing slow pitch softball in San Domingo. We created an over-the-counter market to sell call options on Chen stock because we were certain the stock would never be worth "calling".
We were wrong. Chen maintained steady free cash flow and kept his listing as a major league company. He developed into the niche industry of Jamie Moyer companies that seem to survive despite not having strong fundamentals. Companies like this rely on accounting tricks to keep earnings positive. The upside is minimal at best and the downside is immense. The prices for options on Chen stock going bankrupt are again tempting and one should never forget how close this company was to being de-listed. You might get a small dividend check every fifth start next year, but you are one bad month away from going broke. Anything times zero is zero. If you bought back in 2010, congratulations, go sell it all and buy yourself something nice. Find some other sucker to take the hot potato.
Danny Duffy: We looked into long term options of Duffy stock while he was still a company waiting to be major league listed in Omaha. The problem was that the rating agencies (Baseball America) had been touting him for a while now and his potential was priced in. It is certainly nice to see a Royals subsidiary able to beat hitters with good stuff, while throwing from the left side. This stock is admittedly in a better industry than the dot-com busts like Chris George.
You could do worse than picking yourself up a few hundred shares at this point, because the price tag never went very high on Duffy stock. There is still room for a massive turn into a company like Greinke Co. and even if he flops you will still be able to get $0.80 on the dollar and live to fight another battle. Nothing hurts more than missing the next big growth phenomenon so go buy yourself some insanity insurance and pick up a few shares. If he wins the Cy Young at least you will have some in your portfolio and not get laughed out of Jackson Hole's high speed gondola lift over your 2013 President's Day weekend ski trip.
Jeff Francis: We have to be honest here. The Powder Blue Room does not even have an analyst assigned to cover Jeff Francis stock. Someone might have mentioned this stock at a Denver investor's conference one time, but that was only because it must be included in the "AL Central Starters With Over 150 Innings Pitched Index".
We didn't even know the ticker symbol for this stock. If you own it you could use the stock certificate to diagram offensive plays for the Chiefs that might actually work. Maybe call into Cramer's lightening round and see what he thinks. The Powder Blue Room says could care less about having this one in its portfolio.
Luke Hochever: There are a lot of stubborn folks who paid a decent price for this stock when it had its IPO out of a Fort Worth bucket shop. Those folks are still holding on in the dear hope that the stock reaches that level again. If you are an institutional investor you certainly have to have a block of this stuff because he's good enough to be included in all the S&P (Starters and Pitchers) Index Pitching Funds. Hochevar could still end up as a decent innings eating, dividend paying stock that churns out decent profits over time. We bought our block at a reasonable price and we're reasonable people, so we are going to hold on, take our steady dividend and reinvest elsewhere.
The Royals stock is up, but will we see it continue to grow in fiscal year 2012? As a whole, we think so, but there are still some serious assets missing and some we feel are overvalued by current Royals Fund Manger Dayton Moore. Dayton’s done a good job of gutting the system and getting some fundamental earnings potential back in the Royals portfolio, but next year and this offseason will really tell the tale on where the Royals go from here.
The Players
Melky Cabrera: Gloating is pretty much the main impetus for why anyone would write a blog, and last time we nailed Melky to a T. It still didn't stop Dayton from signing Frenchy to a long-term deal and ignoring the advice of the PBR Hedge Fund. The problem is that Melky is a good stock to have in YOUR portfolio, but no one is dying to pay more than it's worth to have it in their portfolio. So Dayton will go into the offseason looking to trade Melky and cash in, but I think he's going to be disappointed when the Philles don't offer Cole Hamels for him. After his surge, he's now just a Hold, no longer a buy. Good luck finding a buyer Dayton, you know he's not a CF, right?
Alex Gordon: I want so badly to take profits and look for another downtrodden stock to flip, but I can't bring myself to pull the trigger. If his stock goes any higher - in terms of real, not perceived value - the Royals have themselves a legit star. However, when he sprains a pinkie finger that keeps him out of the line-up all next year, this season will be a distant memory. I have a feeling Dayton is ready to put about $50 mil into the GORDON Homegrown STAR fund; it's a play you have to make regardless of the pure logic behind the situation, so I concur. I'm still scared every time the stock loses value that it won't recover, but let's go all in on Gordon and if we get burned, then so be it. We need look no further than Minnesota and Joe Mauer to see a cautionary tale, but Gordon is still about $130 mil cheaper risk. At this point nobody can really come back and say you shouldn't have bought into GORDON stock, so go long and get as many options as you can.
Jeff Francouer: There is a certain GM who feels this is a good stock and there is still a certain Royals' blog which feels it's going to tank. Right now Francouer is very good and Dayton has the right to say "I told you so" to the legions of Frenchy doubters out there, but even the best odds would give Frenchy a 50/50 shot at repeating this year's performance. And if the coin flip lands on the wrong side, majority share holder's Dayton Co. will be left with another overextended asset clogging up space in your portfolio. I didn't buy when it was cheap, I didn't buy when it went up and down early this year, and I'm certainly not going to buy the FRENCHY Veteran Leader Index Growth fund while it's at a new 52 week high. I'm more than willing to be wrong on this pass, I'll take my chances.
Mitch Maier: Does anyone even remember the ticker symbol for this stock? Given that 500 shares of Maier Inc. costs about as much as a frozen pizza, I recommend buying. I can easily see someone else taking over Maier Inc. and squeezing more value out than the Royals seem to get (The Tampa Bay Hedge Fund, maybe?).
Billy Butler: The Billy Butler Dividend Fund is a must have for every investor. You are going to get a 4.5% yield and its going to come every three months. Billy should fire the compensation committee (his agents) that gave CEO Dayton a true club option that will reduce the window of his most profitable re-sign years with no upside. But that's not the Royals' problem, because they hold that long term call option at around $13 million if they want it. It’s fun to be in a good position and that is what the Royals are in here. Billy Co. is going to crank out steady value and don’t forget that he’s still a year shy of the Jamesian Peak Earnings Age. Buy steadily (using dollar cost averaging).
Bryan Pena: See Mitch Maier.
Salvador Perez: What a turn of events. Dayton makes the typical CEO mistake of drastically overpaying for Jason Kendall stock because he went to business school, where they teach you that purchasing a mature catching company as part of an acquisition spree will create "synergies" (game calling), "vertical integration" (leadership) and help "diversify" (veteran) your product line. These are all horrible reasons for a team such as the Royals to open their wallet. The Powder Blue Room offers an online MBA course for GM's of small market, lower tier revenue clubs. The course contains one Power Point slide. It is a white back ground with black letters that say "Find Young Talent Cheaply". That's it. Nothing there about "veteran leadership", "delight in the clubhouse", "ability to call a game" etc... These are all reasonable qualities in a stock, but the Royals need talent. Worry about the other stuff when you bust into the Dow Jones Industrial Index.
Salvador Perez is a stock that is still flying under the radar, but probably not for long. He can barley buy a shot of Patron, yet he is major league listed. This is where an analyst needs to walk the factory floor. Not too many analysts walk the floor of The K these days and they are missing an opportunity. If you watch closely you will see that his defense as a catcher is actually fun to watch. Really, this is true. He looks pretty blocking balls. The safety is always off on the cannon. Catching does not look difficult for him. Keep in mind that catching at the major league level is extremely difficult.
If he can monetize his online hitting platform, you are looking at an early retirement. If he doesn't you will probably get your money back. At the current stock price you are looking at "heads I win, tails I don't lose that much". Take advantage of everyone that read the analysts' reports (Baseball America) that said he is only a defensive catcher before they look at his game film, buy and don't stop until you hit early retirement.
Chris Getz: Even Dayton and Ned finally sold this one. When you have 8 extra base hits in over 400 plate appearances, you're not a major league starter. Now that I don't have to evaluate him as such, we can finally put a fair valuation on Chris. As a pinch runner and back-up to the back-up infielder, he's perfectly fine, I'd even buy at that price. As long as I don't have to write another article about why he is hitting leadoff, then all is cool between the PBR and the Getzie Coaches’ Kid Fund. Buy very, very, very, very low.
Erik Hosmer: Hosmer plays baseball like Bill Gates codes C++. It’s just what he does. That is how we feel about Hosmer stock. He just looks like he can play baseball. He looks good against quality pitching. He looks good catching the ball. He looks good adjusting his cap. He looks good smiling at the camera. He looks good chewing tobacco. He looks good cleaning his fingernails…you get the idea.
Of course, it’s all about price and Hosmer stock isn't a cheap stock. The stock price has him fairly valued.....for the most part. But Hosmer stock is similar to a large retail company that owns all the land under its stores and the market is missing it. Hosmer is valued as a prospect in the mold of Moustakas stock, but he has clearly already passed that and is soon to be compared with the Texiera large cap first base funds. You don't really have a choice here. You've got to buy a little high and hope to sell higher. There is a good chance the current price is going to look dirt cheap in a couple of years. Don't let your neighbors laugh and speak ill of you on the 16th hole, buy the stock.
Johnny Giavotella: Wildly overvalued from the get-go, but who wouldn't like this stock? Always undervalued (he's 5'8", haven't you heard), but with real potential (extra base power). My valuations of him were always based on the fact the he couldn't have been worse than Getz, but I still advocated for the Aviles fund to be kept around (He's hitting .340 for the RED SOX, by the way). I'm actually quite curious about this stock, so I own a few shares just for fun. I could see a Dustin Pedroia ALLSTAR Index Fund or I could see Cris Getz beating him out for the job next year. It's probably one of the more interesting stocks in the Royals portfolio, so you might as well have a few shares.
Alcides Escobar: Alcides is like buying a Jackson Pollack painting. If you’re already rich it’s fun to show off, but if you’re broke you should probably sell it and pay employees that make money for you. I like to look at Alcides too, but I’ve been reading the Dayton Moore Investor’s Report and he’s convinced that this is a necessary piece to have in your portfolio. It’s not. He’s still one of the worst hitters in baseball, yes worse than YUNI. That backhand is awesome, but he’s still burning through cash with his OBP. If you can find another art collector who’ll give you 10x what you paid then take it and build another factory. If not keep looking at it and hope you get rich enough to buy a room for it.
Mike Moustakas: What to do? If you looked through a catalogue of baseball stocks and saw a 3B stock under 6'-0", slightly pudgy, not very smooth in the field (or overall for that matter), you certainly would not pay the price that Dayton Moore is probably currently asking. This is where the Powder Blue Room analysts have their questions. Inside our glass encased, sound proof, off-shore conference room, the PBR has had many a conference call stating our reservations about picking up a big block of Moose stock. We like our blue chips to look, act and move like one. Moose stock sure doesn't look like Erik Hosmer stock. He doesn't walk like Hosmer stock, isn’t nearly as smooth; he doesn't even throw the ball back to the pitcher in same suave fashion that Hosmer does. We are well aware that one can't make an investment decision based on the company printed annual report, but we like our blue chip stocks to look and act the part.
It’s nice to see Moose stock end the year hitting well, but if Dayton called and said we could trade him back to Milwaukee for a controlling stake in Greinke Co., we’d give the order to pull out of Moose stock. You could try and hedge, but don't bother, the rest of the league has already beat you to that position. If you can find a sucker SELL. Otherwise; dance with whom you brought.
The Pitchers
Nate Adcock: Nate is like a Farmers National Bank Platnium Select Savings Account; everybody should have a few bucks in a savings account because it will be there when you need it. However, no team has ever won the World Series with the Nate Adcocks of the world. And whether or not Nate is in Japan next season or pitching for the Royals he won't suddenly make you a 90 win team. Not a Buy, but if you've got a few bucks tucked away in an Adcock 1yr CD, just save it for a rainy day.
Louis Coleman: This stock has taken a beating lately. People who bought high are now stuck taking losses, but if he's your fourth best reliever, all is well with your bullpen. Hold.
Tim Collins: Little Timmy is like an Airline stock. Sometimes you wonder how he isn't better than he is; people fly, they spend a lot of money to do so, so why can't airlines make money? Timmy's left handed, strikes out a lot of people and has a crazy delivery. But wait he's walked more people than Jeff Francis in over 100 less innings. Also, lefties hit about as well as do righties; so he's not a lefty specialist, not a closer and not a set-up guy, I'd sell.
Aaron Crow: Last time we advised staying away from this stock due to the unreliability of relief pitchers. Since then he was named an All-Star, briefly made the closer and then his ERA went up 1.5 runs (supposedly he was hurt) and now he's not even the set-up man. If Crow isn't a starter, then what is he? Turns out, he's probably a flash-in-the-pan bullpen guy. I'll keep my fingers crossed, but I'm still staying away from the CROW Fund until he does what he did earlier in the year for seven innings every fifth day.
Greg Holland: Like all reliever stock, the Holland stock is overvalued, but I still really like it. The SO/BB ratio is just what you want to see from a dominant reliever...Joakim, watch your job. I'd buy this stock, it's probably still got room to grow.
Joakim Soria: Oh Joakim, why couldn't you have just kept your real nickname? Now you're just OKAY, you're not what you have been and we don't know what that means going forward. I suppose you'll get the job again next year as long as you stay healthy, but you're just not an exciting stock to own anymore. I'm still holding, but it's mainly because I overextended myself buying your stock over the past few years.
Everett Teaford: Apparently it was Everett who was mislabeled as a small cap lefty specialist. As a starter he strikes out about 9/game and dominates (until Saturday). Even though the PBR usually likes to have more data, this stock is still cheap and could fill in the hole of the hopefully departing Jeff Francis and Bruce Chen. Buy a few shares of this one and see what happens.
Blake Wood: If Blake can keep it together for the rest of the year, then at best he's the fourth piece in a big trade (see Jeremy Jeffress), but that's about it. Nothing to see here, move along. He's essentially a functioning factory on a heavy equipment manufacturers' asset sheet. Keep using it until it breaks, but if it breaks the company will keep going without missing a beat.
Felipe Paulino: The broker you have in your "market assisted brokerage account" called you up and pushed you to buy "boatloads" of Paulino in June. He said it was a young stock all the analysts were talking about because the company had recently moved into the high profit starting pitching industry. You didn't buy and your golf buddies made fun of you as the market began to warm to what is a somewhat promising growth stock.
However, the market is brutal to growth stocks that don't constantly grow and a couple of rough starts sent the stock off its 52 week high. Now the question is whether or not Paulino is worth buying now that it is trading at a valuation where growth is already accounted for in the price. Taking in the Royals’ other options in the starting pitcher market it’s a very strong Hold, hopefully you bought early.
Bruce Chen: The Powder Blue Room was short on Bruce Chen stock so hard it made the protagonists in Michael Lewis' The Big Short look like they were playing nickel slots. Any Powder Blue Room trader found to be holding a long position in the stock was immediately fired and ordered to watch a full season of Jose Guillen playing slow pitch softball in San Domingo. We created an over-the-counter market to sell call options on Chen stock because we were certain the stock would never be worth "calling".
We were wrong. Chen maintained steady free cash flow and kept his listing as a major league company. He developed into the niche industry of Jamie Moyer companies that seem to survive despite not having strong fundamentals. Companies like this rely on accounting tricks to keep earnings positive. The upside is minimal at best and the downside is immense. The prices for options on Chen stock going bankrupt are again tempting and one should never forget how close this company was to being de-listed. You might get a small dividend check every fifth start next year, but you are one bad month away from going broke. Anything times zero is zero. If you bought back in 2010, congratulations, go sell it all and buy yourself something nice. Find some other sucker to take the hot potato.
Danny Duffy: We looked into long term options of Duffy stock while he was still a company waiting to be major league listed in Omaha. The problem was that the rating agencies (Baseball America) had been touting him for a while now and his potential was priced in. It is certainly nice to see a Royals subsidiary able to beat hitters with good stuff, while throwing from the left side. This stock is admittedly in a better industry than the dot-com busts like Chris George.
You could do worse than picking yourself up a few hundred shares at this point, because the price tag never went very high on Duffy stock. There is still room for a massive turn into a company like Greinke Co. and even if he flops you will still be able to get $0.80 on the dollar and live to fight another battle. Nothing hurts more than missing the next big growth phenomenon so go buy yourself some insanity insurance and pick up a few shares. If he wins the Cy Young at least you will have some in your portfolio and not get laughed out of Jackson Hole's high speed gondola lift over your 2013 President's Day weekend ski trip.
Jeff Francis: We have to be honest here. The Powder Blue Room does not even have an analyst assigned to cover Jeff Francis stock. Someone might have mentioned this stock at a Denver investor's conference one time, but that was only because it must be included in the "AL Central Starters With Over 150 Innings Pitched Index".
We didn't even know the ticker symbol for this stock. If you own it you could use the stock certificate to diagram offensive plays for the Chiefs that might actually work. Maybe call into Cramer's lightening round and see what he thinks. The Powder Blue Room says could care less about having this one in its portfolio.
Luke Hochever: There are a lot of stubborn folks who paid a decent price for this stock when it had its IPO out of a Fort Worth bucket shop. Those folks are still holding on in the dear hope that the stock reaches that level again. If you are an institutional investor you certainly have to have a block of this stuff because he's good enough to be included in all the S&P (Starters and Pitchers) Index Pitching Funds. Hochevar could still end up as a decent innings eating, dividend paying stock that churns out decent profits over time. We bought our block at a reasonable price and we're reasonable people, so we are going to hold on, take our steady dividend and reinvest elsewhere.
The Royals stock is up, but will we see it continue to grow in fiscal year 2012? As a whole, we think so, but there are still some serious assets missing and some we feel are overvalued by current Royals Fund Manger Dayton Moore. Dayton’s done a good job of gutting the system and getting some fundamental earnings potential back in the Royals portfolio, but next year and this offseason will really tell the tale on where the Royals go from here.
Monday, August 29, 2011
A Dayton Late and a Dollar Short
In a stirring announcement over the weekend, Dayton Moore admitted (indirectly) that the Powder Blue Room had it right and he should explore trading prospects for starting pitching. While we thank Dayton for his candor, we're still waiting for an official offer to become the new Assistant GM. All kidding aside, this is both good news and yet another possible indication that Dayton's timing will never be enough to get the Royals to the next level. Correct me if I'm wrong, but the Royals no longer have any top prospects that can fetch a #1 starting pitcher? Not to mention, I don't think there is a #1 or even a #2 on the trade market, again correct me if I'm wrong
Right about now is when most Royals fans start to talk about how good the Chiefs are going to be this year and forget all about the Royals (unless your buddy gets free tickets from someone at the office). However, if you're like me and feel that football in August is an abomination and actually wish the lockout would have lasted until after the World Series, then you've got some things on your mind. Namely, with the Tigers series starting today, what would make the difference between what the Royals are now (20+ games under .500) and this series being an important late season battle between the two division leaders? According to my calculations, it's actually not that much.
During the trade deadline I proposed three trades (see Ubaldo Jimenez & Wandy Rodriguez and Carlos Zambrano) which all look (admittedly) to be pretty misguided right now. And maybe they were and will be in the future, but I'm going to put forth a simple proposition which, in conjunction with a reasonable change in fortune, would put the Royals into contention this year for the division title. Here are the what iffs; if during the 2010 trade deadline the Royals had traded for Dan Haren and if Joakim was having a dominant year the Royals would have approximately a 12 win differential giving them a 67-67 record and within shouting distance of Detroit. It wouldn't give them the Phillies record, but all things being equal, I think we'd take it in KC. It is the AL Central after all.
So let's go back in time to last year's trade deadline...Dan Haren was a good pitcher having a bad year (4.6 ERA at time of trade) and Arizona was shedding payroll as fast as possible. The Royals had the best minor league farm system and presumably could have offered the best package to the D'Backs. They didn't (obviously) and the Angels did (obviously). Haren has been one of the best pitchers in the league and the Royals have trotted out one of the league's worst rotation day after day. My calculations assume that Haren would have replaced Sean O'Sullivan and Kyle Davies combined starts this year and made about a 6 win difference (thanks B-Ref WAR). Based on the return Arizona Received the Royals probably could have gotten him for Mike Montgomery plus one or two other prospects.Who knows what it really would have taken from the Royals, but the D'Backs ended up with Joe Saunders and one top 100 prospect. So really any two of the Royals top pitching prospects should have gotten the job done.
The next 6 wins come from Jokiam Soria only blowing one save, this would be a dominant year, but certainly not impossible. Also, according to the numbers (thanks again B-Ref), the Royals have been a bit unlucky this year so Jokiam is really just a scape goat for luck. This again goes to question Dayton's sense of timing since Joakim has gone from big trading chip to borderline closer in just one year. We all hope Joakim bounces back next year, but if he doesn't it will be anther check mark against the ability for Dayton to pull the trigger at the right time. All of that aside, this change isn't earth shattering and can easily be expected to occur next year.
As we all know, the Royals highly touted left handed pitching prospects have all failed across the board this year. If your biggest success is that one actually made it to the majors and has been healthy, then I guess Duffy is a success. However, none have helped the Royals this year and the odds of them helping next year are pure speculation at best. Now what the Royals have are a bunch of "former top prospects" that might not get you the Dan Harens of the trade market. I'm sure the Royals still have a big package which will get you close or put you in contention with other teams, but last year the Royals had the types of prospects to go out and get anyone. This year I'm not sure that's true.
Admittedly, last year was probably not the time for a big move and the Royals have had some bad luck when it comes to starting pitching prospects. But in the end, all of the improvement this year has really come from unexpected seasons by Frenchy, Melky and Gordon. If we can assume that our offense can only improve from this year (Hosmer and Moose, I'm looking at you) then the Royals are still closer than they have been a long time.
If being an MLB GM is also a game of invisible inches then Dayton could make a big move in the offseason and provide the Royals exactly what they need. But I wonder if he has already missed the boat?
Right about now is when most Royals fans start to talk about how good the Chiefs are going to be this year and forget all about the Royals (unless your buddy gets free tickets from someone at the office). However, if you're like me and feel that football in August is an abomination and actually wish the lockout would have lasted until after the World Series, then you've got some things on your mind. Namely, with the Tigers series starting today, what would make the difference between what the Royals are now (20+ games under .500) and this series being an important late season battle between the two division leaders? According to my calculations, it's actually not that much.
During the trade deadline I proposed three trades (see Ubaldo Jimenez & Wandy Rodriguez and Carlos Zambrano) which all look (admittedly) to be pretty misguided right now. And maybe they were and will be in the future, but I'm going to put forth a simple proposition which, in conjunction with a reasonable change in fortune, would put the Royals into contention this year for the division title. Here are the what iffs; if during the 2010 trade deadline the Royals had traded for Dan Haren and if Joakim was having a dominant year the Royals would have approximately a 12 win differential giving them a 67-67 record and within shouting distance of Detroit. It wouldn't give them the Phillies record, but all things being equal, I think we'd take it in KC. It is the AL Central after all.
So let's go back in time to last year's trade deadline...Dan Haren was a good pitcher having a bad year (4.6 ERA at time of trade) and Arizona was shedding payroll as fast as possible. The Royals had the best minor league farm system and presumably could have offered the best package to the D'Backs. They didn't (obviously) and the Angels did (obviously). Haren has been one of the best pitchers in the league and the Royals have trotted out one of the league's worst rotation day after day. My calculations assume that Haren would have replaced Sean O'Sullivan and Kyle Davies combined starts this year and made about a 6 win difference (thanks B-Ref WAR). Based on the return Arizona Received the Royals probably could have gotten him for Mike Montgomery plus one or two other prospects.Who knows what it really would have taken from the Royals, but the D'Backs ended up with Joe Saunders and one top 100 prospect. So really any two of the Royals top pitching prospects should have gotten the job done.
The next 6 wins come from Jokiam Soria only blowing one save, this would be a dominant year, but certainly not impossible. Also, according to the numbers (thanks again B-Ref), the Royals have been a bit unlucky this year so Jokiam is really just a scape goat for luck. This again goes to question Dayton's sense of timing since Joakim has gone from big trading chip to borderline closer in just one year. We all hope Joakim bounces back next year, but if he doesn't it will be anther check mark against the ability for Dayton to pull the trigger at the right time. All of that aside, this change isn't earth shattering and can easily be expected to occur next year.
As we all know, the Royals highly touted left handed pitching prospects have all failed across the board this year. If your biggest success is that one actually made it to the majors and has been healthy, then I guess Duffy is a success. However, none have helped the Royals this year and the odds of them helping next year are pure speculation at best. Now what the Royals have are a bunch of "former top prospects" that might not get you the Dan Harens of the trade market. I'm sure the Royals still have a big package which will get you close or put you in contention with other teams, but last year the Royals had the types of prospects to go out and get anyone. This year I'm not sure that's true.
Admittedly, last year was probably not the time for a big move and the Royals have had some bad luck when it comes to starting pitching prospects. But in the end, all of the improvement this year has really come from unexpected seasons by Frenchy, Melky and Gordon. If we can assume that our offense can only improve from this year (Hosmer and Moose, I'm looking at you) then the Royals are still closer than they have been a long time.
If being an MLB GM is also a game of invisible inches then Dayton could make a big move in the offseason and provide the Royals exactly what they need. But I wonder if he has already missed the boat?
Thursday, August 18, 2011
All Aboard the Dayton Train!
If it wasn't obvious to everyone before, it should be painfully clear now that this is Dayton's team. First it was the full-steam-a head bullpen youth movement. Next, it was white-hot Eric Hosmer over struggling Kila; which has seemed to work out for everyone except Kila. Then it was Moustakas over Betemit; hopefully it works next year but this year it has only helped the Detroit Tigers and made KC even worse. Then it was Getz over Aviles, who was subsequently recalled and then banished for speaking out against the regime. Then Dayton got serious and called-up Giovatella to replace Getz, Kyle Davies (drunkenly) fell from even Dayton's good grace, and now Dayton's prized rookie catcher has taken over the backstop for good (Pena never could get a chance with the Royals).
And if that wasn't clear enough for you, the final piece to his puzzle has been completed with the two year extension given to his love child, Jeff Francouer. For all of the obvious ways we could choose to make fun of this signing, let's first give Dayton his due credit for this and the Melky signing. It worked out, it could have gone differently but somehow both of these guys are having very good years and Dayton looks like a smart guy. On the other hand, I'm not going to sit here call Moore a genius. He signed two guys that no other team wanted because they were cheap and it still may be true that he has a CF in Omaha who's better than both of them. Who knows?
We're now all just along for the ride while Dayton conducts what will be our KC Royals for the near future. The way I see it two things will determine the success of the Dayton Moore led effort to resurrect the fortunes of the Royals...
The Youth
This might be overstating the obvious, but it is the young players who determine determine the fate of the team. Now that they have their spirited leader Frenchy inked for two more years, Dayton has placed his on the field mouth piece to lead for better or worse. In reality, what will be more important is whether Hosmer or Moustakas really become superstars. By superstar I don't mean Gordon/Melky/Frenchy-type bounce back years. I mean Fielder/Braun/Upton/Cabrera/Votto-like dominant years. It's all on Hosmer's shoulders now, but hopefully Moose still has it in him. There still isn't a great hitter on the team, there are several good ones, but finding someone who can really scare opposing pitchers is what gets a team to the next level. Dayton has done his best to sign and pay for young talent and he now has what he's spent the last few years paying for ready to go. We'll know much more at this time next year, but despite all of the small victories and signs of improvement, Hosmer and Moose have made us no better than Tehan and Buck and Duffy and Crow have not improved us from the likes of Gobble and MacDougal. So there is still a lot of work to do.
Timing
Timing does play a huge factor in youth development, but that's not what I'm referring to here; prospects will bust and get hurt, that's just how it goes. However, Dayton still hasn't shown the ability to have success making a big move, and at some point he's going to have to make trades and signings which make the Royals good in the present tense. Sure Bubba Starling might be awesome in 5 years, but the Royals are 21 games under .500 RIGHT NOW. Is signing Jeff Francouer for two more years going to change that? Did signing Melky this year change it? Don't answer. Has the Greinke trade helped the team? As it stands right now, the Royals got a big upgrade on Yuni's defense and they got one of the best pitchers in baseball. How well did Jason Kendall work out everyone? Dido on Jose Guillen. Yes, we all love the signings of Melky and Paulino, Frenchy and Chen, but there will come a time when that's just not big enough.
So everyone kick back and watch as Dayton's Reign begins.
And if that wasn't clear enough for you, the final piece to his puzzle has been completed with the two year extension given to his love child, Jeff Francouer. For all of the obvious ways we could choose to make fun of this signing, let's first give Dayton his due credit for this and the Melky signing. It worked out, it could have gone differently but somehow both of these guys are having very good years and Dayton looks like a smart guy. On the other hand, I'm not going to sit here call Moore a genius. He signed two guys that no other team wanted because they were cheap and it still may be true that he has a CF in Omaha who's better than both of them. Who knows?
We're now all just along for the ride while Dayton conducts what will be our KC Royals for the near future. The way I see it two things will determine the success of the Dayton Moore led effort to resurrect the fortunes of the Royals...
The Youth
This might be overstating the obvious, but it is the young players who determine determine the fate of the team. Now that they have their spirited leader Frenchy inked for two more years, Dayton has placed his on the field mouth piece to lead for better or worse. In reality, what will be more important is whether Hosmer or Moustakas really become superstars. By superstar I don't mean Gordon/Melky/Frenchy-type bounce back years. I mean Fielder/Braun/Upton/Cabrera/Votto-like dominant years. It's all on Hosmer's shoulders now, but hopefully Moose still has it in him. There still isn't a great hitter on the team, there are several good ones, but finding someone who can really scare opposing pitchers is what gets a team to the next level. Dayton has done his best to sign and pay for young talent and he now has what he's spent the last few years paying for ready to go. We'll know much more at this time next year, but despite all of the small victories and signs of improvement, Hosmer and Moose have made us no better than Tehan and Buck and Duffy and Crow have not improved us from the likes of Gobble and MacDougal. So there is still a lot of work to do.
Timing
Timing does play a huge factor in youth development, but that's not what I'm referring to here; prospects will bust and get hurt, that's just how it goes. However, Dayton still hasn't shown the ability to have success making a big move, and at some point he's going to have to make trades and signings which make the Royals good in the present tense. Sure Bubba Starling might be awesome in 5 years, but the Royals are 21 games under .500 RIGHT NOW. Is signing Jeff Francouer for two more years going to change that? Did signing Melky this year change it? Don't answer. Has the Greinke trade helped the team? As it stands right now, the Royals got a big upgrade on Yuni's defense and they got one of the best pitchers in baseball. How well did Jason Kendall work out everyone? Dido on Jose Guillen. Yes, we all love the signings of Melky and Paulino, Frenchy and Chen, but there will come a time when that's just not big enough.
So everyone kick back and watch as Dayton's Reign begins.
Tuesday, August 2, 2011
Obligatory Post Trade Deadline Wrap
Blockbusters up and down and the Royals stuck in the middle holding on to Melky, Frenchy, Francis and Chen. Apparently, the Cleveland Indians listened to the Powder Blue Room, but the Royals barely made a squeak in the trade market. The Royals essentially dumped two players taking up space on their bench for players who aren't contractually required to take-up space on the bench. So what happened to Dayton and his patented trade deadline specials? I think he got a little too big for his britches. Given that there was absolutely no need to trade anyone for payroll reasons, I think Dayton tried to play hardball and got what he should have expected. Now we have to wait and see if it was a case overvaluing players or rightfully balking at the paltry returns offered for the likes of Melky and Frenchy. The hardest part is that we really don't know, while MLB Trade Rumors does a fantastic job of making us think we know. In the end we have no idea of what, who, when and if any offers came for the Royals' players, still that doesn't stop us from pretending we know more than our GM...
Melky
Dayton's Price: I want a high upside MLB ready starting pitcher.
The Rest of the League's Response: Yes Dayton, everyone would love to turn a million dollar gamble and half a season from a slightly above average CF into a starting pitcher, but what you really get is Vin Mazarro or someone who throws 100 MPH, but has more walks than strike-outs pitching down in AA.
The Reality: Dayton probably played this one well, there was just simply no reason give away Melky for anything less than real talent. He's cheap, under team control and if he continues to play like this will be worth as much during the offseason or at next year's trade deadline. Also, I'm guessing that no one in the league really bought the whole "Melky finally figured it out" storyline and decided the better options of Beltran, Pence, Bourn, Upton, Rasmus et al, were more worth the prospect price tag. It actually was a pretty loaded outfield market and Melky was about 7th best on that list, so let him continue to build value for a future trade or maybe he helps you make a playoff run next year? No harm done having Melky around for a while longer.
Frenchy
Dayton's Price tag: See Melky Cabrera and double it.
The Rest of the League's Response: Very funny Dayton, do you realize that I'm going to use him only as a platoon outfielder to hit against soft-tossing lefties. No really Dayton, he's not an everyday player. Dayton everyone in the league passed on him except for you. Are you serious, our #1 pitching prospect for him, this conversation is over.
The Reality: Any other GM in baseball in the Royals situation would have traded Frenchy for a AA lefty bullpen arm, moved Melky to RF and immediately called up Lorenzo Cain. But this is the love affair that is Dayton Moore & Jeff Francouer. I'm willing to admit that he has played pretty well this year, much better than anyone expected, and I love watching him throw people out at the plate, but the thought of negotiating a 2+ year deal with him at the end of the year is just scary. Or even worse, the thought of watching him hit .180 in September while Cain rides the bench or stays in AAA and then execising his mutual option. The only way I like this is if you're a really cunning GM who wants to preserve Cain's value and include him in a big blockbuster deal this offseason for a starting pitcher because you know the Frenchy/Melky combo is more reliable and only costs a few mil. But I don't see that coming from Dayton and Frenchy has created an unnecessary bottleneck and if he continues to play well will simply be too expensive at the end of the year, but if he plays poorly will also be too expensive. I just don't see how the Royals come out on top with this situation.
Jeff Francis
Dayton's Price: A toolsy 2B in AA plus another bullpen arm.
The Rest of the League's Response: Again, Dayton we like the signing, we all give you props for getting Francis this offseason on the cheap, but what exactly is your leverage here? If we don't give you our best young infield prospect, you'll keep him and maybe not loose 100 games? Take our 7th best outfield prospect in low A ball and move on with life.
The Reality: There might never have been a real Jeff Francis Market. I'd like to believe that if you can trade Jason Marquis and Doug F-ing Fister for something then Francis is worth a prospect, but other teams also might not have been buying the "Jeff Francis difference maker" storyline. The truth is that the chances of Jeff Francis being more help than your best AAA pitcher are very slim. The problem here is the same as Jeff Francouer; if he pitches well you might win a few more games in September, but he'll cost too much to re-sign and if sucks it up or gets hurt, you could have gotten the same from Mazarro or O'Sullivan and had the prospect and a few 100K to boot. I think what happened is that Francis' last good start came too late, he needed two or three really good starts right before the deadline in order to sucker any team into giving up a prospect, but that didn't happen and there never was much on the table for Francis.
Bruce Chen
Dayton's Price: Same as Francis plus some icing.
The Rest of the League's Response: Dayton did you see his last start vs. Boston 4 IP, 10 ER, nuff said. Brian Cashman continually forwarded the box score to Dayton via text message until he stopped calling.
The Reality: Contrary to the Jeff Francis situation, Chen's implosion in Boston came just in time for any potential suitors to see this and pull all offers off the table and move on to the next veteran lefty. His 3.3 ERA looked great and then came the Boston game, after which his 4.3 ERA didn't look so good. You can never be sure, but if I were about to take a prospect gamble on Bruce Chen and then saw that game, I would immediately delete Dayton from my speed dial. Dayton probably didn't adjust his price on Chen post Boston Massacre and surprisingly (only so to Dayton) no teams called on Chen's availability.
The best thing to come from this trade deadline is that Mike Aviles found a good home and no longer has to watch Chris Getz hit four infield/bunt singles per week while he and Mitch play five-card-draw waiting to pinch run for Billy Butler in the 9th. Other than that, nothing happened. It may play out to be a shrewed move when Dayton trades Lorenzo Cain back to Milwaukee for Zack Greinke and Melky and Frenchy get even better next year. But it could also turn out to be a complete waste of time as Frenchy signs with Philly in the offseason for more money, or Melky decides to go back to eating roasted chickens two at a time, Chen and Francis move on and the books are closed on those players. We'll just have to wait and see.
Melky
Dayton's Price: I want a high upside MLB ready starting pitcher.
The Rest of the League's Response: Yes Dayton, everyone would love to turn a million dollar gamble and half a season from a slightly above average CF into a starting pitcher, but what you really get is Vin Mazarro or someone who throws 100 MPH, but has more walks than strike-outs pitching down in AA.
The Reality: Dayton probably played this one well, there was just simply no reason give away Melky for anything less than real talent. He's cheap, under team control and if he continues to play like this will be worth as much during the offseason or at next year's trade deadline. Also, I'm guessing that no one in the league really bought the whole "Melky finally figured it out" storyline and decided the better options of Beltran, Pence, Bourn, Upton, Rasmus et al, were more worth the prospect price tag. It actually was a pretty loaded outfield market and Melky was about 7th best on that list, so let him continue to build value for a future trade or maybe he helps you make a playoff run next year? No harm done having Melky around for a while longer.
Frenchy
Dayton's Price tag: See Melky Cabrera and double it.
The Rest of the League's Response: Very funny Dayton, do you realize that I'm going to use him only as a platoon outfielder to hit against soft-tossing lefties. No really Dayton, he's not an everyday player. Dayton everyone in the league passed on him except for you. Are you serious, our #1 pitching prospect for him, this conversation is over.
The Reality: Any other GM in baseball in the Royals situation would have traded Frenchy for a AA lefty bullpen arm, moved Melky to RF and immediately called up Lorenzo Cain. But this is the love affair that is Dayton Moore & Jeff Francouer. I'm willing to admit that he has played pretty well this year, much better than anyone expected, and I love watching him throw people out at the plate, but the thought of negotiating a 2+ year deal with him at the end of the year is just scary. Or even worse, the thought of watching him hit .180 in September while Cain rides the bench or stays in AAA and then execising his mutual option. The only way I like this is if you're a really cunning GM who wants to preserve Cain's value and include him in a big blockbuster deal this offseason for a starting pitcher because you know the Frenchy/Melky combo is more reliable and only costs a few mil. But I don't see that coming from Dayton and Frenchy has created an unnecessary bottleneck and if he continues to play well will simply be too expensive at the end of the year, but if he plays poorly will also be too expensive. I just don't see how the Royals come out on top with this situation.
Jeff Francis
Dayton's Price: A toolsy 2B in AA plus another bullpen arm.
The Rest of the League's Response: Again, Dayton we like the signing, we all give you props for getting Francis this offseason on the cheap, but what exactly is your leverage here? If we don't give you our best young infield prospect, you'll keep him and maybe not loose 100 games? Take our 7th best outfield prospect in low A ball and move on with life.
The Reality: There might never have been a real Jeff Francis Market. I'd like to believe that if you can trade Jason Marquis and Doug F-ing Fister for something then Francis is worth a prospect, but other teams also might not have been buying the "Jeff Francis difference maker" storyline. The truth is that the chances of Jeff Francis being more help than your best AAA pitcher are very slim. The problem here is the same as Jeff Francouer; if he pitches well you might win a few more games in September, but he'll cost too much to re-sign and if sucks it up or gets hurt, you could have gotten the same from Mazarro or O'Sullivan and had the prospect and a few 100K to boot. I think what happened is that Francis' last good start came too late, he needed two or three really good starts right before the deadline in order to sucker any team into giving up a prospect, but that didn't happen and there never was much on the table for Francis.
Bruce Chen
Dayton's Price: Same as Francis plus some icing.
The Rest of the League's Response: Dayton did you see his last start vs. Boston 4 IP, 10 ER, nuff said. Brian Cashman continually forwarded the box score to Dayton via text message until he stopped calling.
The Reality: Contrary to the Jeff Francis situation, Chen's implosion in Boston came just in time for any potential suitors to see this and pull all offers off the table and move on to the next veteran lefty. His 3.3 ERA looked great and then came the Boston game, after which his 4.3 ERA didn't look so good. You can never be sure, but if I were about to take a prospect gamble on Bruce Chen and then saw that game, I would immediately delete Dayton from my speed dial. Dayton probably didn't adjust his price on Chen post Boston Massacre and surprisingly (only so to Dayton) no teams called on Chen's availability.
The best thing to come from this trade deadline is that Mike Aviles found a good home and no longer has to watch Chris Getz hit four infield/bunt singles per week while he and Mitch play five-card-draw waiting to pinch run for Billy Butler in the 9th. Other than that, nothing happened. It may play out to be a shrewed move when Dayton trades Lorenzo Cain back to Milwaukee for Zack Greinke and Melky and Frenchy get even better next year. But it could also turn out to be a complete waste of time as Frenchy signs with Philly in the offseason for more money, or Melky decides to go back to eating roasted chickens two at a time, Chen and Francis move on and the books are closed on those players. We'll just have to wait and see.
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