Trade for Carlos Zambrano
I said that you were going to have to bare with me on this one. This proposed trade has two parts: the theory and the actuality. First lets start with the theory; Carlos has an inflated contract, the Cubs desperately want rid of him, the Royals have payroll space, there is not one single middling starting pitcher worth paying for in the 2012 free agent class and by the way the Royals need a starter. Who is your projected 2012 KC Royals starting rotating? It's scary, I know. So it could be anyone, but Big Z is just the best case that I've been able to come-up with. One of the big advantages in contract absorption trades is that you won't have to give up much, so the Royals can hold on to all of their precious prospects and let go of maybe two mid-tier guys. Here is how the economics of the trade break down; Carlos is still owed something like $9 mil this year and $18 mil for 2012. Yes, these are big numbers, but the Cubs know they need to eat a good chunk of that if they want to rid themselves of Carlos and get anything in return. So I believe the best way to use the Royals deflated 2011 payroll is to eat a few mil from another team's bad contract this year, while still gaining a much needed asset. If the Royals agree to take on something like half of the contract, that means somewhere in the neighborhood of four million this year and nine next year. I'm just assuming these numbers, but if the Cubs wanted a team to pay much more than that, it would be silly. The point is; who does it hurt if the Royals payroll creeps over $40 mil this year? It's like a tree falling in the woods; the Royals planned to have around a $70 million payroll this year so it seems to me that tacking on a few mil this year will not hurt anyone. If no money is added, David Glass will simply become imperceptibly richer and maybe Christmas bonuses are little better in the executive suite. But that's it, the books will rollover to 2012, and Luke Hochevar will again be our opening day starter. I call this the theory part because it could be any player with an expiring back-loaded contract that is weighing another team down, yet that player is still potentially useful - just not at that price. As for the $9 mil (give or take) in 2012; the Royals will still come into 2012 with one of the lowest payrolls in baseball, unless of course they sign Pujols to play 2B, Prince Fielder to man RF and persuade CC Sabathia to come join the rotation. So if you think you can find a better use of this money, I'm all ears.
I assume that the money won't raise much of an issue here, but a lot of baseball fans probably see the crazy Zambrano and think clubhouse problem; i.e. more Jose Guillen, less Jeff Fancouer. Maybe you can get past this, but you still see his 4.38 ERA and dropping strikeout rate as indicators of a potentially washed-up starting pitcher who won't help the team. And you know what, all of these concerns might be valid. But let's break down what Zambrano has done and just think what he could do for the Royals. Zambrano has never, save a seven inning cup-of-coffee in 2001, had an ERA over 4.00. Never, not once! The only time after he was officially moved to the starting rotation that he has not completed a season with 160+ innings and 28 starts with said sub-4.00 ERA was last year when Lou Pinella went senile for a month and made one of the best pitchers of the last decade into an 8th inning set-up man. If you're still here and have bared with me through all of this, but are not yet convinced that this is an impressive feat then let me tell you why this is so impressive to me. The entire KC Royals starting pitching rotations from the years 2000 through 2010 have been able to accomplish this (sub-4.00 ERA, 160+ innings, 28 starts) exactly SEVEN TIMES! Only three times have been by pitchers not named Zack Greinke or Gil Meche. And since Carlos Zambrano started his streak in 2003 he has been able to accomplish this seven times compared to just five for the Royals. So one starting pitcher has accomplished this feat two more times than all of the starting pitchers for the Royals COMBINED! So yes, I marvel at this achievement. Carlos has stayed healthy and been an above average starting pitcher, with flashes of greatness, for his entire career and still appears to be a useful workhorse. This is exactly the kind of pitcher the Royals need. The issues about his club house presence may or may not be of any real concern, it's hard to tell. But if you choose to believe that he is just a competitive pitcher who wants to win and is in the last year of his contract looking for another big deal then what more could you ask for?
It's a leap-of-faith, I'll grant you that, but based on the above referenced track record do you feel more comfortable penciling-in Vin Mazarro or Carlos Zambrano as you #3 starting pitcher? Do you see more potential for a #2 starter in Luke Hochevar or Zambrano? Looking at the Royals current situation, I feel that they need to start making gambles, and as far as gambles go this is one that has the potential to make a real impact on the team without sacrificing much other than a couple of secondary prospects and only a few million bucks that will hardly be felt by the payroll. Playing the waiting game with pitching prospects is fine, and Duffy has been looking better every time, but you need someone reliable in your rotation and there have been few pitchers as reliable (physically not mentally) as Carlos Zambrano. I think this is the exact situation that can be exploited by a shrewd organization; an unwanted player with a big contract and a team in need of payroll space to sign someone like Pujols or Fielder. It just reeks of desperation. If there is another, better contract dump situation out there please let me know. But this trade deadline I'd love to see Dayton take a risk instead of his past Callaspo-for-O'Sullivan snoozers that will have little impact on keeping 2012 from looking like 2011.
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