Pretty soon Brad Pitt and George Clooney will look good wearing expensive tuxedos, LOTS of people will be thanked, at least one person will cry and we'll all watch on as the Academy Awards are handed out to random people for work on movies we've never seen or awards that never should have been invented. Then, finally, we'll get to see the awards for best actor, movie and director. Here at the PBR we'll dispense with all of that and just go straight to the most important awards...
Best Actor: Unlike the real Oscars, the Royals actually had two very strong candidates for this years award. Alex Gordon played the forgotten local hero, who had been cast out and now comes back to regain the hearts and minds of the people who had written him off. While Melky Cabrera played the new comer with A Lot of baggage (about 30 lbs.) who had to win over the people with an outstanding performance. Both exceeded expectations and put together two great performances, which in any other year might have made them locks for the award. Alas, someone has to take home the award. Both of these actors showed tons of promise early on by becoming breakout teenage stars, however something happened in their mid 20s and they started taking on roles not meant for them. Alex was miscast as the next Brad Pitt (George Brett) for years and this year he finally was able to shed those lofty expectations and settle for the next Jeff Bridges, reliable but not so unattainable. Similarly, Melky had high expectations placed on him as the next Bernie Williams on the big stage in New York, that did not happen and he ended up down-and-out in Hot Lanta doing cameos as the villan on CSI Miami episodes. It strikes me that Melky should take home the award due to the degree of difficulty in his turn around, Gordon's performance was technically better, but Melky's was more surprising and grittier. Alex's role was about like a Tom Hanks performance, while Melky's was more like the indie actor who never had a shot. And the award goes to...Alex Gordon.
No surprise here, there just wasn't enough support for Melky and Alex's movie was the higher grossing, studio film tear jerker that the voters really can get behind. Congrats to Alex! Hopefully he profusely thanks Kevin Sitzer.
My Prediction for the real Oscars: Brad Pitt for Moneyball in a shocker.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role: Eric Hosmer, and it's not even close. This is a classic best supporting actor win for Hosmer in that he stole the show but was only limited from the best actor category due to his service time. Next year he'll be up there with Pitt and Clooney, but he had to go through the supporting category first. Hosmer's win this year is something akin to Heath Ledger's win for Dark Knight or Javier Bardem's for No County because it was so impossible that it could go to anyone else. His performance in the second half of last season will literally bring people to the ball bark this season. It was the sort of role the Royals have been patiently waiting to be filled; Beltran and Damon came close, Sweeney for about two years, Gordon couldn't do it until it was too late, if you thought Angel Berroa was going to do it you were crazy, Billy Butler doesn't quite have it, Grienke came very close for one season, but Hosmer is the guy who actually makes other teams jealous. And we've got him for six years. Keep your fingers crossed.
My Prediction for the real Oscars: Jonah Hill for Moneyball in a shocker.
Best Director: Another easy one. Jeff Francouer!!! After spending the last few seasons directing TV commercials after failing to live up to his next-big-thing hype. Francouer was signed by producer Dayton Moore to direct the uber feel good rom com of long time losers finally turning things around. His comedy routine is pretty, well, routine. However, if you smash enough pies in peoples faces, make enough "great win for the team" post game speeches, get your own fan club, and just smile for the camera A LOT, sometimes it works. The PBR does not see Jeff Francouer turning into Peter Jackson and directing the next great trilogy, but Dayton needed the veteran presence/leader type to carry his young team into the future and whatever you (I) may think of Dayton, he's earned the right to choose Francouer as the Director.
My Prediction for the real Oscars: Whoever directed Moneyball, despite not being nominated.
Best Actress: Chris Getz. I'm sorry Chris, but I had to. In 604 career ABs with the Royals you've yet to hit a home run. People get called a "Sally" for much less than that in little league.
My Prediction for the real Oscars: Were there any females in Moneyball?
Best Actress in a Supporting Role: Luke Hochevar. No, this is really the year he turns it around. Well you never know, here's hoping that he's this year's Alex Gordon and not Kyle Davies. But another +5.00 ERA and I'm done, and so should be Dayton.
My Prediction for the real Oscars: Brad Pitt's daughter in Moneyball?
Contratulations to everyone, enjoy your statues and here's to Spring Training games in the near future!
Sunday, February 26, 2012
Thursday, February 9, 2012
Would that it were
Barring any last minute Dayton Moore head scratchers, the Royals have had a pretty tame offseason. We're all expecting that Alex Gordon contract extension, but it probably won't get any of us too excited. However, the seemingly harmless signings (mostly REsignings) and trades from this offseason present us with some interesting "what if" scenarios after a second look. Hopefully this will give you some food for thought until we can analyze the Gordon extension, spring training or Dayton's controversial signing of a back-up DH. Anyway, would you rather have....
Melky Cabrera in RF this season and $7.5 million next season or Frenchy for those two years? I'm hopefully going to be moving on to bigger battles than the Jeff Francoer signing, but for now this is a legitimate question and one which will help to judge Dayton Moore's talent evaluation radar. So far he's held onto his biggest prospect trading chip in Wil Meyers, but if he dominates this season - as expected - his progression is completely blocked by Frenchy and his $7.5 million salary in 2013. My hope is that Dayton is still eyeing a big trade with Meyers as the center piece when the Royals are ready to contend. But if Frenchy is hitting .250 in 2013 and taking playing time away from SUPER DUPER PROSPECT Wil Meyers, then I'm going to write a super nasty blog post all about it (gotta love internet anonymity). Granted the Jonathan Sanchez trade would not have happened, but we'll get to that.
The above scenario plus no Bruce Chen. Under this scenario you get $10 mil this year (Chen + Sanchez, Cabrera and Frenchy are a push) and $12 next season (Bruce + Frenchy) to make a run at a free agent starter? What does 2 years and $20+ mil get you? Maybe Roy Oswalt? Half of Yu Darvish's posing fee? Edwin Jackson and Oswalt? The answer is not entirely clear this year because Sanchez and Chen are might be a better bet than those options, but it's hard to believe the $12 mil in 2013 wouldn't be more useful elsewhere. And let's face it, if a top 5 farm system can't replace the production of Frenchy and Chen by 2013, then the team has probably failed miserably. As it stands now, we have the two best locker room pranksters in the biz for two more years and $22 mil. These contracts are not unreasonable, and have a little upside, but still that is some decent coin which could have been thrown at a starter. The point is more that the Royals really had no pressing need to fill these holes, especially not in 2013; if Myers isn't as good as Frenchy by 2013 something went wrong, dido on Mike Montgomery (or someone else) surpassing Chen. Next year the Royals will start to have some fairly high salaries (Butler, Gordon, Soria, etc.) so let's hope that $12 mil won't prevent us from getting a real difference maker when the time is right.
Chen for two years and $9 mil or Jeff Francis and no guaranteed money. This one surprised me. Jeff Francis has had more prior success, is younger and was healthier in 2011. However, he had to take a minor league deal from the Reds while Chen parlayed 25 starts last year into a nice little 2-year contract. Sure his ERA was higher and he didn't have that sparkling win-loss record, but Francis pitched in more games and piled on more innings and stayed off the DL. This is less about the Royals, but I just don't see how that adds up, it seems like a great backup plan and the Reds might get 200 innings for next to nothing. But then again, they they don't get moments like this one.
Bruce Chen for two years or Edwin Jackson for one? In fairness, when Bruce Chen signed Jackson and Scott Boras still thought he was getting 5 years and $80 mil. Now this happened. It was an interesting fall from a starter with so much experience, but a rotation featuring Sanchez, Jackson, Hochevar, Paulino and Duffy has some real upside. The Royals could have had this and not been out a prospect or even very much money, but I digress. I promise this is the last I mention Bruce Chen in this post.
Alex Gordon or Zack Greinke? I don't know where this is coming from, but committing big money to Gordon might mean no big free agent contracts for a couple of years and obviously Greinke coming back is not very likely. Still $50 mil to Gordon isn't exactly the safest bet in the world based on past performance. However, the safe and relatively modest contract extensions like the one Gordon would get usually work out better in the end than $100+ mil to a free agent pitcher. Here's a more intriguing question; would the Royals 2012 season be a lot more promising if they had never traded Greinke? What if you take the current team, put Jarrod Dyson in CF and Marco Scutaro at SS? With Greinke at the top of the rotation, you can really start to believe in this team contending now. Colorado got Scutaro for basically nothing and as good as Escobar is on defense I don't think you lose anything by essentially swapping him for Dyson; elite defensive CF for elite defensive SS, neither of whom can hit? If only Greinke had known we were just a Greinke away from contending in 2012!
Being an internet GM is fun, especially in February. GM Dayton Moore did not sign Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols, Yu Darvish or even Edwin Jackson. He stayed pretty calm this offseason and seems to be in a wait-and-see mode for 2012. I think he wants badly to be in it at the deadline to make a big trade that will get the Royals to the playoffs for the first time in 26 years. However, the team may have taken a big step back by doing so little this offseason. The Tigers made their move, the AL West is stacked at the top, the East may have four teams better than the Royals and is this going to change anytime soon? It's not that far-fetched that one of the White Sox, Twins or Indians could turn it around. The way I see it the Royals could have stepped up this year and made themselves heard, but opted for the safe plays all around. Let's hope it works out.
Melky Cabrera in RF this season and $7.5 million next season or Frenchy for those two years? I'm hopefully going to be moving on to bigger battles than the Jeff Francoer signing, but for now this is a legitimate question and one which will help to judge Dayton Moore's talent evaluation radar. So far he's held onto his biggest prospect trading chip in Wil Meyers, but if he dominates this season - as expected - his progression is completely blocked by Frenchy and his $7.5 million salary in 2013. My hope is that Dayton is still eyeing a big trade with Meyers as the center piece when the Royals are ready to contend. But if Frenchy is hitting .250 in 2013 and taking playing time away from SUPER DUPER PROSPECT Wil Meyers, then I'm going to write a super nasty blog post all about it (gotta love internet anonymity). Granted the Jonathan Sanchez trade would not have happened, but we'll get to that.
The above scenario plus no Bruce Chen. Under this scenario you get $10 mil this year (Chen + Sanchez, Cabrera and Frenchy are a push) and $12 next season (Bruce + Frenchy) to make a run at a free agent starter? What does 2 years and $20+ mil get you? Maybe Roy Oswalt? Half of Yu Darvish's posing fee? Edwin Jackson and Oswalt? The answer is not entirely clear this year because Sanchez and Chen are might be a better bet than those options, but it's hard to believe the $12 mil in 2013 wouldn't be more useful elsewhere. And let's face it, if a top 5 farm system can't replace the production of Frenchy and Chen by 2013, then the team has probably failed miserably. As it stands now, we have the two best locker room pranksters in the biz for two more years and $22 mil. These contracts are not unreasonable, and have a little upside, but still that is some decent coin which could have been thrown at a starter. The point is more that the Royals really had no pressing need to fill these holes, especially not in 2013; if Myers isn't as good as Frenchy by 2013 something went wrong, dido on Mike Montgomery (or someone else) surpassing Chen. Next year the Royals will start to have some fairly high salaries (Butler, Gordon, Soria, etc.) so let's hope that $12 mil won't prevent us from getting a real difference maker when the time is right.
Chen for two years and $9 mil or Jeff Francis and no guaranteed money. This one surprised me. Jeff Francis has had more prior success, is younger and was healthier in 2011. However, he had to take a minor league deal from the Reds while Chen parlayed 25 starts last year into a nice little 2-year contract. Sure his ERA was higher and he didn't have that sparkling win-loss record, but Francis pitched in more games and piled on more innings and stayed off the DL. This is less about the Royals, but I just don't see how that adds up, it seems like a great backup plan and the Reds might get 200 innings for next to nothing. But then again, they they don't get moments like this one.
Bruce Chen for two years or Edwin Jackson for one? In fairness, when Bruce Chen signed Jackson and Scott Boras still thought he was getting 5 years and $80 mil. Now this happened. It was an interesting fall from a starter with so much experience, but a rotation featuring Sanchez, Jackson, Hochevar, Paulino and Duffy has some real upside. The Royals could have had this and not been out a prospect or even very much money, but I digress. I promise this is the last I mention Bruce Chen in this post.
Alex Gordon or Zack Greinke? I don't know where this is coming from, but committing big money to Gordon might mean no big free agent contracts for a couple of years and obviously Greinke coming back is not very likely. Still $50 mil to Gordon isn't exactly the safest bet in the world based on past performance. However, the safe and relatively modest contract extensions like the one Gordon would get usually work out better in the end than $100+ mil to a free agent pitcher. Here's a more intriguing question; would the Royals 2012 season be a lot more promising if they had never traded Greinke? What if you take the current team, put Jarrod Dyson in CF and Marco Scutaro at SS? With Greinke at the top of the rotation, you can really start to believe in this team contending now. Colorado got Scutaro for basically nothing and as good as Escobar is on defense I don't think you lose anything by essentially swapping him for Dyson; elite defensive CF for elite defensive SS, neither of whom can hit? If only Greinke had known we were just a Greinke away from contending in 2012!
Being an internet GM is fun, especially in February. GM Dayton Moore did not sign Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols, Yu Darvish or even Edwin Jackson. He stayed pretty calm this offseason and seems to be in a wait-and-see mode for 2012. I think he wants badly to be in it at the deadline to make a big trade that will get the Royals to the playoffs for the first time in 26 years. However, the team may have taken a big step back by doing so little this offseason. The Tigers made their move, the AL West is stacked at the top, the East may have four teams better than the Royals and is this going to change anytime soon? It's not that far-fetched that one of the White Sox, Twins or Indians could turn it around. The way I see it the Royals could have stepped up this year and made themselves heard, but opted for the safe plays all around. Let's hope it works out.
Saturday, January 14, 2012
2012
Apologies to the legions of PBR fans who've been waiting patiently for more cutting edge offseason analysis. However, we've literally been speechless since Christmas came early and Dayton put a big lump of Yuniesky Betancourt under our tree. Spring training is right around the corner and the Royals are preparing to head off for the sunshine of Arizona hoping to defend their Cactus League title with a group of young homegrown talent (and Yuni, Frenchy and Cheny too). So what has Moore done this offseason in preparation for the most promising season in recent memory?
Step 1: Make the safe but smart trade for possible rotation help. The Melky for Sanchez flip was classic Dayton. He rebuilt Melky's career, looked smart in doing so, and pounced on the opportunity to turn him into a big upside starting pitcher. This trade needs little review; it had to be done. You had to get rid of Cain or Cabrera this offseason or face the same consequence of letting one of the pieces of the Grienke deal rot away in AAA. This was a good use of Cabrera and now we get to find out what, if anything, we've got in Lorenzo Cain. We just have to keep our fingers crossed and hope Sanchez has another good season left in his left arm.
Step 2: Pretend you are willing to trade your young prospects for big name starting pitchers. Latos, Gonzalez and Cahill went for varying degrees of prospect hauls, and the Royals were rumored to be "interested" in all of them. However, Dayton and/or the Royals just aren't there yet. The Melky/Sanchez trade allowed Dayton to stand his ground and horde his prospects for a rainy day. I wanted to see the big trade, but maybe they're still a year away, who knows? The bottom line is that this surprised NO ONE!
Step 3: Take the most obvious route possible and re-sign BRUCE CHEN. It's hard for me to get worked up about this since I've been wrong on Chen for two consecutive years, and you have to agree with the consensus that he has the "good clubhouse guy" thing down. But at the very least this was unnecessary. Again, it's the safe play and there is very little chance of it backfiring, but Tim Tebow is more likely to be starting game two of a playoff series for the Royals than B Chen. On the flip side if he goes 10-10 and eats 200 innings this year, it's another win for Dayton.
Step 4: Take a flyer on a once great closer beaten down by arm injuries. On the face of it, signing Jonathan Broxton is just plain stupid. The Royals have plenty of bullpen arms. However, deep down it's really the same as signing Jeff Francouer or Melky Cabrera last year; if it works great, if not nobody is hurt.
Step 5: Take away from on the field issues by forcing out your TV announcer; a beloved franchise figure and community leader. Oh yeah, this was Fox Sports...of course Dayton had no part in it. Who knows what to believe in this story? Frank was most definitely not Vin Scully, but I might be listening to the radio broadcasts a lot more this season.
Step 6: Yuni Redux! Dayton proves to everyone that he is completely oblivious. He voluntarily shows the league that he is willing to be the butt of all jokes by getting his main man Yuni back on the squad. Here's how it happened: Grienke wants out, the Brewers want Grienke, Dayton forces them to take Yuni as part of the trade and offers $1 mil as a good faith gesture. Royals fans rejoice and Dayton looks smart. Now, fast forward to this offseason, the Royals need a utility infielder and here's why: Mike Aviles was slightly disgruntled last season and got traded to Boston for Yamico Navarro (a younger Aviles), BUT it turns out that Navarro doesn't mesh well with Frenchy and Dayton's good-guy clubhouse. Dayton ships him off for cash, then the Royals realize that Chris Getz is not a good fit for the back-up 3B/SS job. Next, they are rumored for weeks to be in on every has-been back-up infielder on the market. Enfin, Dayton shocks the world by signing the only one who no one expected and who is not actually a back-up infielder. Yes, the same one who one year ago Dayton had paid $1 mil for him NOT to be on his team. This is the logic of Dayton Moore. By completely mishandling Mile Aviles (the perfect back-up infielder) he winds up paying $2 mil (twice as much) for an inferior, historically less productive, infamously inept, and completely inexplicable option. I can't wait to write more about it, it's Royals blogging gold!
Step 7: Make a perfectly good signing of a lefty specialist. Tim Collins is not that guy. Jose Mijares is. He costs less than $1 mil. Ned Yost will make lots of trips to the mound and need Tommy John surgery on his left arm from calling for Mijares. He will have 81 appearances and pitch 30 innings. This is the second best offseason move, but there wasn't a lot of competition.
Step 8: Breaking news as Dayton's bargain shopping continues with the signing of Kevin Kouzmanoff. If he's only worth a minor league deal, how is Yuni worth $2mil???????????????????????????????????
Step 9: Sign Roy Oswalt, trade Hochevar.
Step 10: Wait for Prince Fielder's price to drop. Sign him, trade Hosmer and Wil Myers to Seattle for Felix Hernadez and win the AL Central for the next 5 years. Being a GM is so simple a blogger could do it.
Okay so the PBR filled in those last two Steps, but if Dayton does anything we can be sure that it is either going to be completely predictable or completely nonsensical. You know Kevin Kouzmanoff is not going to be the last of Dayton Moore this offseason. Will he resign Jose Guillen to platoon with Alex Gordon or will he resign Jason Kendall to be the be third string catcher? There is surely one more surprise left in Dayton before he heads off to Surprise, AZ.
Step 1: Make the safe but smart trade for possible rotation help. The Melky for Sanchez flip was classic Dayton. He rebuilt Melky's career, looked smart in doing so, and pounced on the opportunity to turn him into a big upside starting pitcher. This trade needs little review; it had to be done. You had to get rid of Cain or Cabrera this offseason or face the same consequence of letting one of the pieces of the Grienke deal rot away in AAA. This was a good use of Cabrera and now we get to find out what, if anything, we've got in Lorenzo Cain. We just have to keep our fingers crossed and hope Sanchez has another good season left in his left arm.
Step 2: Pretend you are willing to trade your young prospects for big name starting pitchers. Latos, Gonzalez and Cahill went for varying degrees of prospect hauls, and the Royals were rumored to be "interested" in all of them. However, Dayton and/or the Royals just aren't there yet. The Melky/Sanchez trade allowed Dayton to stand his ground and horde his prospects for a rainy day. I wanted to see the big trade, but maybe they're still a year away, who knows? The bottom line is that this surprised NO ONE!
Step 3: Take the most obvious route possible and re-sign BRUCE CHEN. It's hard for me to get worked up about this since I've been wrong on Chen for two consecutive years, and you have to agree with the consensus that he has the "good clubhouse guy" thing down. But at the very least this was unnecessary. Again, it's the safe play and there is very little chance of it backfiring, but Tim Tebow is more likely to be starting game two of a playoff series for the Royals than B Chen. On the flip side if he goes 10-10 and eats 200 innings this year, it's another win for Dayton.
Step 4: Take a flyer on a once great closer beaten down by arm injuries. On the face of it, signing Jonathan Broxton is just plain stupid. The Royals have plenty of bullpen arms. However, deep down it's really the same as signing Jeff Francouer or Melky Cabrera last year; if it works great, if not nobody is hurt.
Step 5: Take away from on the field issues by forcing out your TV announcer; a beloved franchise figure and community leader. Oh yeah, this was Fox Sports...of course Dayton had no part in it. Who knows what to believe in this story? Frank was most definitely not Vin Scully, but I might be listening to the radio broadcasts a lot more this season.
Step 6: Yuni Redux! Dayton proves to everyone that he is completely oblivious. He voluntarily shows the league that he is willing to be the butt of all jokes by getting his main man Yuni back on the squad. Here's how it happened: Grienke wants out, the Brewers want Grienke, Dayton forces them to take Yuni as part of the trade and offers $1 mil as a good faith gesture. Royals fans rejoice and Dayton looks smart. Now, fast forward to this offseason, the Royals need a utility infielder and here's why: Mike Aviles was slightly disgruntled last season and got traded to Boston for Yamico Navarro (a younger Aviles), BUT it turns out that Navarro doesn't mesh well with Frenchy and Dayton's good-guy clubhouse. Dayton ships him off for cash, then the Royals realize that Chris Getz is not a good fit for the back-up 3B/SS job. Next, they are rumored for weeks to be in on every has-been back-up infielder on the market. Enfin, Dayton shocks the world by signing the only one who no one expected and who is not actually a back-up infielder. Yes, the same one who one year ago Dayton had paid $1 mil for him NOT to be on his team. This is the logic of Dayton Moore. By completely mishandling Mile Aviles (the perfect back-up infielder) he winds up paying $2 mil (twice as much) for an inferior, historically less productive, infamously inept, and completely inexplicable option. I can't wait to write more about it, it's Royals blogging gold!
Step 7: Make a perfectly good signing of a lefty specialist. Tim Collins is not that guy. Jose Mijares is. He costs less than $1 mil. Ned Yost will make lots of trips to the mound and need Tommy John surgery on his left arm from calling for Mijares. He will have 81 appearances and pitch 30 innings. This is the second best offseason move, but there wasn't a lot of competition.
Step 8: Breaking news as Dayton's bargain shopping continues with the signing of Kevin Kouzmanoff. If he's only worth a minor league deal, how is Yuni worth $2mil???????????????????????????????????
Step 9: Sign Roy Oswalt, trade Hochevar.
Step 10: Wait for Prince Fielder's price to drop. Sign him, trade Hosmer and Wil Myers to Seattle for Felix Hernadez and win the AL Central for the next 5 years. Being a GM is so simple a blogger could do it.
Okay so the PBR filled in those last two Steps, but if Dayton does anything we can be sure that it is either going to be completely predictable or completely nonsensical. You know Kevin Kouzmanoff is not going to be the last of Dayton Moore this offseason. Will he resign Jose Guillen to platoon with Alex Gordon or will he resign Jason Kendall to be the be third string catcher? There is surely one more surprise left in Dayton before he heads off to Surprise, AZ.
Thursday, December 1, 2011
Recruiter Ned Yost
Win, loose or draw on the Jonathan Broxton trade, The Powder Blue Room would like to issue a small courtesy golf clap for Ned Yost in the spirit of resourcefulness. Everyone has probably heard the story about the hunting trip where Ned, Jeff Francoeur and he-haw funny guy Jeff Foxworthy sent the white tail dear of LaGrange, GA into survival mode. In short, it was a recruiting trip (hunting trip), set up by old Ned, who included his apparent friend Jeff Foxworthy.
Finally, something on the Yankees and Boston in the competitive advantage category. Baseball managers don't get to diagram plays or any of the PlayStation involvement of a football or basketball coach. American League managers don't even get to get involved in the game of double-switch. But Ned apparently got tired of the front office guys hogging all the joey-deal-making fun and set out to get in on the game himself.
But Kansas City has a manager pulling his weight, and quite frankly, we like to see it. The logistics of the signing will be covered in a later post and what effect the hunting trip had on the signing is intangible at best. If you saw the photo of Dayton standing next to Broxton at the press conference what is not intangible are the dimensions of this guy. Whoever built the dear-stand for Team Foxworthy back in LaGrange, probably had to run out and reinforce some of the stand's structural members prior to Mr. Broxton entering the premises. We have not yet received the tapes of the wire-taps we placed in the deer-stand, but we are sure the transcripts will show a highly cultured, literate and dignified set of words spoken amongst the trio. How many times Broxton told Jeff to "tell me a joke" will be part of a future Powder Blue Room poll, so stay tuned.
So kudos to Ned Yost, out there doing the hustle, making things shake where he can. Something tells us that Joe Torre never grabbed a dear rifle and Captain Derek to set out into the forest in hope of luring a player to the Bronx.
Finally, something on the Yankees and Boston in the competitive advantage category. Baseball managers don't get to diagram plays or any of the PlayStation involvement of a football or basketball coach. American League managers don't even get to get involved in the game of double-switch. But Ned apparently got tired of the front office guys hogging all the joey-deal-making fun and set out to get in on the game himself.
But Kansas City has a manager pulling his weight, and quite frankly, we like to see it. The logistics of the signing will be covered in a later post and what effect the hunting trip had on the signing is intangible at best. If you saw the photo of Dayton standing next to Broxton at the press conference what is not intangible are the dimensions of this guy. Whoever built the dear-stand for Team Foxworthy back in LaGrange, probably had to run out and reinforce some of the stand's structural members prior to Mr. Broxton entering the premises. We have not yet received the tapes of the wire-taps we placed in the deer-stand, but we are sure the transcripts will show a highly cultured, literate and dignified set of words spoken amongst the trio. How many times Broxton told Jeff to "tell me a joke" will be part of a future Powder Blue Room poll, so stay tuned.
So kudos to Ned Yost, out there doing the hustle, making things shake where he can. Something tells us that Joe Torre never grabbed a dear rifle and Captain Derek to set out into the forest in hope of luring a player to the Bronx.
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
Dayton ruins Royals' rumor season
After so much talk Dayton just couldn't help himself to a "high upside" starter right out of the gates. This just ruined the next few months of speculating about the Royals involvement in hundreds of trade scenarios throughout the offseason. There was so much potential for the Royals to be the darlings of rumor season with their search for an opening day starter and a wealth of prospects to deal. But in the end Dayton executed his patented Dayton Moore Strike Early Trade. I have to say that I'm a big fan of the trade just for record. However, it still doesn't mean I'm not disappointed that I can't talk about what I think the Royals should and shouldn't do for the next few months.
The fact that I wanted to see Lorenzo Cain starting in center field on opening day has now been realized and with the ancillary benefit of getting a good starter, albeit with a huge asterisk mark. Dayton Moore has loved to trade/sign to get the downtrodden player with upside since day one and this is probably his best yet. Moore struck fools gold with Melky and Frenchy last season and turned it into a starting pitcher and a starting right fielder for the next two years. But this latest move -- along with the assumption that they are mostly done for the offseason -- leads me to believe that Dayton is operating under the prospect hoarding, still one-year-away theory and I'm disappointed. When Dayton declared himself ready to trade prospects for a talented pitcher at the outset of the offseaon it triggered an initial flurry of rumors that had me imagining the Royals with a completely new starting rotation and real hope of contention. But after the dust has settled from this trade, it is still the same old Moore waiting for his beloved prospects to single handily lead charge for the AL Central crown. Melky for Sanchez is about the safest bet in trades Dayton could have made.
Moore's strategy is obviously working but the Royals are still fighting battles and not wars. Is having Jonathan Sanchez in the starting rotation along with Lorenzo Cain in CF going to make the Royals a winner? Not very likely. Would having that along with getting great seasons from Moustakas, Perez, Hosmer, Duffy AND Montgomery? Yes, that might be enough. I guess it is the smart play, but I'm still waiting to see if Moore has the ability to take a big risk. Trading Melky for Sanchez has almost no downside, re-signing Bruce Chen won't hurt you, giving Frenchy a two-year extension can't cripple you and waiting on minor league arms doesn't sink you, but it also doesn't provide you with the immediate satisfaction a long-time Royals fan needs.
I hope the waiting game works, but not dangling your top prospects for real solutions at starting pitcher would just be bad business. Cashing in on minor league talent is the best competitive advantage which the Royals currently have and you never know when the expiration date is on that currency. They are still a winning season away from being taken seriously by quality free agents, and the Jonathan Sanchez trade gets them closer to success if and only if every thing else goes well. It was a good trade, but only if you measure success in terms of baby steps. Dayton, one day you'll have to take big-boy steps. Are we there yet???
The fact that I wanted to see Lorenzo Cain starting in center field on opening day has now been realized and with the ancillary benefit of getting a good starter, albeit with a huge asterisk mark. Dayton Moore has loved to trade/sign to get the downtrodden player with upside since day one and this is probably his best yet. Moore struck fools gold with Melky and Frenchy last season and turned it into a starting pitcher and a starting right fielder for the next two years. But this latest move -- along with the assumption that they are mostly done for the offseason -- leads me to believe that Dayton is operating under the prospect hoarding, still one-year-away theory and I'm disappointed. When Dayton declared himself ready to trade prospects for a talented pitcher at the outset of the offseaon it triggered an initial flurry of rumors that had me imagining the Royals with a completely new starting rotation and real hope of contention. But after the dust has settled from this trade, it is still the same old Moore waiting for his beloved prospects to single handily lead charge for the AL Central crown. Melky for Sanchez is about the safest bet in trades Dayton could have made.
Moore's strategy is obviously working but the Royals are still fighting battles and not wars. Is having Jonathan Sanchez in the starting rotation along with Lorenzo Cain in CF going to make the Royals a winner? Not very likely. Would having that along with getting great seasons from Moustakas, Perez, Hosmer, Duffy AND Montgomery? Yes, that might be enough. I guess it is the smart play, but I'm still waiting to see if Moore has the ability to take a big risk. Trading Melky for Sanchez has almost no downside, re-signing Bruce Chen won't hurt you, giving Frenchy a two-year extension can't cripple you and waiting on minor league arms doesn't sink you, but it also doesn't provide you with the immediate satisfaction a long-time Royals fan needs.
I hope the waiting game works, but not dangling your top prospects for real solutions at starting pitcher would just be bad business. Cashing in on minor league talent is the best competitive advantage which the Royals currently have and you never know when the expiration date is on that currency. They are still a winning season away from being taken seriously by quality free agents, and the Jonathan Sanchez trade gets them closer to success if and only if every thing else goes well. It was a good trade, but only if you measure success in terms of baby steps. Dayton, one day you'll have to take big-boy steps. Are we there yet???
Monday, November 21, 2011
26 years and counting...
In case you just came back from a spiritual mission to India and missed the Royals season...they didn't make the playoffs. Yes, again. That makes 26 years, but who's counting? Actually, we here at the Powder Blue Room are counting. So what's the excuse this time? Given that this article is a month behind schedule, we'll keep it short, because you most likely already know the answer.
Pitching: Like the title of a certain Bob Seager song (not the one from the old Chevy truck ads) it was still the same. Except for the bullpen, except for Joakim Soria. Bruce Chen was still the same, but in a good way. Kyle Davies was still the same, but in a much much worse way. Felipe Paulino was a nice surprise, Jeff Francis was not. Luke Hochevar took some nice steps forward (mainly staying healthy), but they were taken way too late to be of much importance (next, year Hoch!). Teaford looked like he's worth a shot next year but on the other hand Vinny and O'Sullivan look like Omaha lifers. For all of the progress made in the set-up area of the bullpen Joakim had a very bad year and undeniably cost the team wins as the closer. Not to mention that Aaron Crow and Tim Collins really fizzled down the stretch. The two biggest question marks for next season might be if Joakim can reestablish himself as a dominant closer, and if Aaron Crow can transition into an average starter. This would be the best and most efficient way to improve both sides of the pitching without any external moves; and it appears that after the Sanchez trade the Royals are done making big moves in the rotation. As bad as the starting rotation was this year, if we come out of spring training with Sanchez #1, Paulino #2, Hochevar #3, Duffy #4 and Crow/Teaford/Montgomery #5, I'll take it (and so would most Royals fans, I think).
Offense: I have to say that this was actually fun to watch this year. The outfield just didn't stop all year. Seriously, who saw this one coming? Not I said the PBR. Okay one of the three outfielders finally living up to expectations I'd have bought that, two would have moved my skepticism needle into the red, but all three having career years was actually quite impressive/improbable/unbelievable/made-for-TV-movie worthy. Around the infield; Betemit was good and even better for Detroit. Moustakas was good (in September), Escobar was great (for two weeks), Getz doesn't exist to me, nor in any real offensive category. Eric Hosmer made me question my sexual orientation. The catchers weren't bad and then came Sal Perez who caught like Ivan Rodriguez and hit like Mike Piazza, in other words he's a keeper. I miss Mike Aviles, but I'll live. Johnny Giavotella looked great at times and also looked like someone who is 5'8'' trying to hit major league pitching at other times. The Royals 2012 million dollar question is can Lorenzo Cain hit? If the answer to that is yes and everything else stays the course, it should be another fun year watching the Royals hit lots of doubles at the K.
Defense: One step forward, two steps backward. If you just looked at shortstop range and outfield assists then you might come to the conclusion that it was the best ever. But unfortunately for the Royals, centerfielders in Kaufman have to cover a lot of ground. While Melky's offseason weight loss plan worked wonders at the plate, it didn't make him into Willie Mays with the glove. Throw in Alex and Frenchy, and the Royals had three above average corner outfielders trying to cover all three positions and it almost worked. However, the infield is where the real mystery unfolds. Obviously Escobar was great, but he makes up exactly 1/4th of the positions. At second base we had a defensive specialist who just wasn't that special (Getzie) and two offensive specialists that were especially bad with the glove (Giovatella and Aviles). All of that equals not good. At first we had the Golden Boy who looked like Mark Grace to me, but whose numbers looked more like Billy Butler (I'm just as surprised as you). Hosmer, worse than Ryan Howard, really? And third base was probably the biggest defensive black hole the team had; Wilson led the ineptitude, followed closely by Aviles and the jury is still out on Moutsakas (I think he looks terrible just for the record). Then at catcher the Royals pretty much tread water until the last month when Sir Sal came up to demonstrate just exactly how a real catcher is supposed to look behind the plate. If you're looking for 2012 prognostications, this is the easiest place to upgrade. By simply swapping Cain for Melky the Royals have already upgraded a lot. Getting a full season behind the plate from Perez should show up as well, even though it wasn't a black hole. And just by letting Hosmer's correction take effect this should also make them better. Second base isn't so easy, but Escobar can make up for one below average defender. At third, well...surprise me Moose (oh and don't forget to hit 30HRs!). I guess the real question here is do you believe the old football axiom "Defense wins Championships" or did you watch the St. Louis Cardinals hit their way to a World Series?
The Royals have a long way to go in 2012 but for once that distance can be made up without an unrealistic amount of help. The pieces are actually there for once, everything still has to go really well for the Royals, but It's not like believing in Ken Harvey and Jeremy Affelt, is it? I have to say that the odds of stopping the streak at 26 seasons without playoff baseball might be at an all time low in KC.
Pitching: Like the title of a certain Bob Seager song (not the one from the old Chevy truck ads) it was still the same. Except for the bullpen, except for Joakim Soria. Bruce Chen was still the same, but in a good way. Kyle Davies was still the same, but in a much much worse way. Felipe Paulino was a nice surprise, Jeff Francis was not. Luke Hochevar took some nice steps forward (mainly staying healthy), but they were taken way too late to be of much importance (next, year Hoch!). Teaford looked like he's worth a shot next year but on the other hand Vinny and O'Sullivan look like Omaha lifers. For all of the progress made in the set-up area of the bullpen Joakim had a very bad year and undeniably cost the team wins as the closer. Not to mention that Aaron Crow and Tim Collins really fizzled down the stretch. The two biggest question marks for next season might be if Joakim can reestablish himself as a dominant closer, and if Aaron Crow can transition into an average starter. This would be the best and most efficient way to improve both sides of the pitching without any external moves; and it appears that after the Sanchez trade the Royals are done making big moves in the rotation. As bad as the starting rotation was this year, if we come out of spring training with Sanchez #1, Paulino #2, Hochevar #3, Duffy #4 and Crow/Teaford/Montgomery #5, I'll take it (and so would most Royals fans, I think).
Offense: I have to say that this was actually fun to watch this year. The outfield just didn't stop all year. Seriously, who saw this one coming? Not I said the PBR. Okay one of the three outfielders finally living up to expectations I'd have bought that, two would have moved my skepticism needle into the red, but all three having career years was actually quite impressive/improbable/unbelievable/made-for-TV-movie worthy. Around the infield; Betemit was good and even better for Detroit. Moustakas was good (in September), Escobar was great (for two weeks), Getz doesn't exist to me, nor in any real offensive category. Eric Hosmer made me question my sexual orientation. The catchers weren't bad and then came Sal Perez who caught like Ivan Rodriguez and hit like Mike Piazza, in other words he's a keeper. I miss Mike Aviles, but I'll live. Johnny Giavotella looked great at times and also looked like someone who is 5'8'' trying to hit major league pitching at other times. The Royals 2012 million dollar question is can Lorenzo Cain hit? If the answer to that is yes and everything else stays the course, it should be another fun year watching the Royals hit lots of doubles at the K.
Defense: One step forward, two steps backward. If you just looked at shortstop range and outfield assists then you might come to the conclusion that it was the best ever. But unfortunately for the Royals, centerfielders in Kaufman have to cover a lot of ground. While Melky's offseason weight loss plan worked wonders at the plate, it didn't make him into Willie Mays with the glove. Throw in Alex and Frenchy, and the Royals had three above average corner outfielders trying to cover all three positions and it almost worked. However, the infield is where the real mystery unfolds. Obviously Escobar was great, but he makes up exactly 1/4th of the positions. At second base we had a defensive specialist who just wasn't that special (Getzie) and two offensive specialists that were especially bad with the glove (Giovatella and Aviles). All of that equals not good. At first we had the Golden Boy who looked like Mark Grace to me, but whose numbers looked more like Billy Butler (I'm just as surprised as you). Hosmer, worse than Ryan Howard, really? And third base was probably the biggest defensive black hole the team had; Wilson led the ineptitude, followed closely by Aviles and the jury is still out on Moutsakas (I think he looks terrible just for the record). Then at catcher the Royals pretty much tread water until the last month when Sir Sal came up to demonstrate just exactly how a real catcher is supposed to look behind the plate. If you're looking for 2012 prognostications, this is the easiest place to upgrade. By simply swapping Cain for Melky the Royals have already upgraded a lot. Getting a full season behind the plate from Perez should show up as well, even though it wasn't a black hole. And just by letting Hosmer's correction take effect this should also make them better. Second base isn't so easy, but Escobar can make up for one below average defender. At third, well...surprise me Moose (oh and don't forget to hit 30HRs!). I guess the real question here is do you believe the old football axiom "Defense wins Championships" or did you watch the St. Louis Cardinals hit their way to a World Series?
The Royals have a long way to go in 2012 but for once that distance can be made up without an unrealistic amount of help. The pieces are actually there for once, everything still has to go really well for the Royals, but It's not like believing in Ken Harvey and Jeremy Affelt, is it? I have to say that the odds of stopping the streak at 26 seasons without playoff baseball might be at an all time low in KC.
Sunday, September 25, 2011
Taking Stock: The September Issue
Vogue does it, so does the Powder Blue Room. Last time the PBR held a share holders meeting, the team looked somewhat different and we left off a few names, but this time we're covering the entire (pre September Call-ups) roster. The Royals are playing some classically optimistic September baseball, but is it a Blue Chip waiting to pay dividends for years to come or a Credit Default Swap waiting to bankrupt all naive investors. Lucky for you your friendly investment specialists from the Powder Blue Room (financial services division) are here to help:
The Players
Melky Cabrera: Gloating is pretty much the main impetus for why anyone would write a blog, and last time we nailed Melky to a T. It still didn't stop Dayton from signing Frenchy to a long-term deal and ignoring the advice of the PBR Hedge Fund. The problem is that Melky is a good stock to have in YOUR portfolio, but no one is dying to pay more than it's worth to have it in their portfolio. So Dayton will go into the offseason looking to trade Melky and cash in, but I think he's going to be disappointed when the Philles don't offer Cole Hamels for him. After his surge, he's now just a Hold, no longer a buy. Good luck finding a buyer Dayton, you know he's not a CF, right?
Alex Gordon: I want so badly to take profits and look for another downtrodden stock to flip, but I can't bring myself to pull the trigger. If his stock goes any higher - in terms of real, not perceived value - the Royals have themselves a legit star. However, when he sprains a pinkie finger that keeps him out of the line-up all next year, this season will be a distant memory. I have a feeling Dayton is ready to put about $50 mil into the GORDON Homegrown STAR fund; it's a play you have to make regardless of the pure logic behind the situation, so I concur. I'm still scared every time the stock loses value that it won't recover, but let's go all in on Gordon and if we get burned, then so be it. We need look no further than Minnesota and Joe Mauer to see a cautionary tale, but Gordon is still about $130 mil cheaper risk. At this point nobody can really come back and say you shouldn't have bought into GORDON stock, so go long and get as many options as you can.
Jeff Francouer: There is a certain GM who feels this is a good stock and there is still a certain Royals' blog which feels it's going to tank. Right now Francouer is very good and Dayton has the right to say "I told you so" to the legions of Frenchy doubters out there, but even the best odds would give Frenchy a 50/50 shot at repeating this year's performance. And if the coin flip lands on the wrong side, majority share holder's Dayton Co. will be left with another overextended asset clogging up space in your portfolio. I didn't buy when it was cheap, I didn't buy when it went up and down early this year, and I'm certainly not going to buy the FRENCHY Veteran Leader Index Growth fund while it's at a new 52 week high. I'm more than willing to be wrong on this pass, I'll take my chances.
Mitch Maier: Does anyone even remember the ticker symbol for this stock? Given that 500 shares of Maier Inc. costs about as much as a frozen pizza, I recommend buying. I can easily see someone else taking over Maier Inc. and squeezing more value out than the Royals seem to get (The Tampa Bay Hedge Fund, maybe?).
Billy Butler: The Billy Butler Dividend Fund is a must have for every investor. You are going to get a 4.5% yield and its going to come every three months. Billy should fire the compensation committee (his agents) that gave CEO Dayton a true club option that will reduce the window of his most profitable re-sign years with no upside. But that's not the Royals' problem, because they hold that long term call option at around $13 million if they want it. It’s fun to be in a good position and that is what the Royals are in here. Billy Co. is going to crank out steady value and don’t forget that he’s still a year shy of the Jamesian Peak Earnings Age. Buy steadily (using dollar cost averaging).
Bryan Pena: See Mitch Maier.
Salvador Perez: What a turn of events. Dayton makes the typical CEO mistake of drastically overpaying for Jason Kendall stock because he went to business school, where they teach you that purchasing a mature catching company as part of an acquisition spree will create "synergies" (game calling), "vertical integration" (leadership) and help "diversify" (veteran) your product line. These are all horrible reasons for a team such as the Royals to open their wallet. The Powder Blue Room offers an online MBA course for GM's of small market, lower tier revenue clubs. The course contains one Power Point slide. It is a white back ground with black letters that say "Find Young Talent Cheaply". That's it. Nothing there about "veteran leadership", "delight in the clubhouse", "ability to call a game" etc... These are all reasonable qualities in a stock, but the Royals need talent. Worry about the other stuff when you bust into the Dow Jones Industrial Index.
Salvador Perez is a stock that is still flying under the radar, but probably not for long. He can barley buy a shot of Patron, yet he is major league listed. This is where an analyst needs to walk the factory floor. Not too many analysts walk the floor of The K these days and they are missing an opportunity. If you watch closely you will see that his defense as a catcher is actually fun to watch. Really, this is true. He looks pretty blocking balls. The safety is always off on the cannon. Catching does not look difficult for him. Keep in mind that catching at the major league level is extremely difficult.
If he can monetize his online hitting platform, you are looking at an early retirement. If he doesn't you will probably get your money back. At the current stock price you are looking at "heads I win, tails I don't lose that much". Take advantage of everyone that read the analysts' reports (Baseball America) that said he is only a defensive catcher before they look at his game film, buy and don't stop until you hit early retirement.
Chris Getz: Even Dayton and Ned finally sold this one. When you have 8 extra base hits in over 400 plate appearances, you're not a major league starter. Now that I don't have to evaluate him as such, we can finally put a fair valuation on Chris. As a pinch runner and back-up to the back-up infielder, he's perfectly fine, I'd even buy at that price. As long as I don't have to write another article about why he is hitting leadoff, then all is cool between the PBR and the Getzie Coaches’ Kid Fund. Buy very, very, very, very low.
Erik Hosmer: Hosmer plays baseball like Bill Gates codes C++. It’s just what he does. That is how we feel about Hosmer stock. He just looks like he can play baseball. He looks good against quality pitching. He looks good catching the ball. He looks good adjusting his cap. He looks good smiling at the camera. He looks good chewing tobacco. He looks good cleaning his fingernails…you get the idea.
Of course, it’s all about price and Hosmer stock isn't a cheap stock. The stock price has him fairly valued.....for the most part. But Hosmer stock is similar to a large retail company that owns all the land under its stores and the market is missing it. Hosmer is valued as a prospect in the mold of Moustakas stock, but he has clearly already passed that and is soon to be compared with the Texiera large cap first base funds. You don't really have a choice here. You've got to buy a little high and hope to sell higher. There is a good chance the current price is going to look dirt cheap in a couple of years. Don't let your neighbors laugh and speak ill of you on the 16th hole, buy the stock.
Johnny Giavotella: Wildly overvalued from the get-go, but who wouldn't like this stock? Always undervalued (he's 5'8", haven't you heard), but with real potential (extra base power). My valuations of him were always based on the fact the he couldn't have been worse than Getz, but I still advocated for the Aviles fund to be kept around (He's hitting .340 for the RED SOX, by the way). I'm actually quite curious about this stock, so I own a few shares just for fun. I could see a Dustin Pedroia ALLSTAR Index Fund or I could see Cris Getz beating him out for the job next year. It's probably one of the more interesting stocks in the Royals portfolio, so you might as well have a few shares.
Alcides Escobar: Alcides is like buying a Jackson Pollack painting. If you’re already rich it’s fun to show off, but if you’re broke you should probably sell it and pay employees that make money for you. I like to look at Alcides too, but I’ve been reading the Dayton Moore Investor’s Report and he’s convinced that this is a necessary piece to have in your portfolio. It’s not. He’s still one of the worst hitters in baseball, yes worse than YUNI. That backhand is awesome, but he’s still burning through cash with his OBP. If you can find another art collector who’ll give you 10x what you paid then take it and build another factory. If not keep looking at it and hope you get rich enough to buy a room for it.
Mike Moustakas: What to do? If you looked through a catalogue of baseball stocks and saw a 3B stock under 6'-0", slightly pudgy, not very smooth in the field (or overall for that matter), you certainly would not pay the price that Dayton Moore is probably currently asking. This is where the Powder Blue Room analysts have their questions. Inside our glass encased, sound proof, off-shore conference room, the PBR has had many a conference call stating our reservations about picking up a big block of Moose stock. We like our blue chips to look, act and move like one. Moose stock sure doesn't look like Erik Hosmer stock. He doesn't walk like Hosmer stock, isn’t nearly as smooth; he doesn't even throw the ball back to the pitcher in same suave fashion that Hosmer does. We are well aware that one can't make an investment decision based on the company printed annual report, but we like our blue chip stocks to look and act the part.
It’s nice to see Moose stock end the year hitting well, but if Dayton called and said we could trade him back to Milwaukee for a controlling stake in Greinke Co., we’d give the order to pull out of Moose stock. You could try and hedge, but don't bother, the rest of the league has already beat you to that position. If you can find a sucker SELL. Otherwise; dance with whom you brought.
Nate Adcock: Nate is like a Farmers National Bank Platnium Select Savings Account; everybody should have a few bucks in a savings account because it will be there when you need it. However, no team has ever won the World Series with the Nate Adcocks of the world. And whether or not Nate is in Japan next season or pitching for the Royals he won't suddenly make you a 90 win team. Not a Buy, but if you've got a few bucks tucked away in an Adcock 1yr CD, just save it for a rainy day.
Louis Coleman: This stock has taken a beating lately. People who bought high are now stuck taking losses, but if he's your fourth best reliever, all is well with your bullpen. Hold.
Tim Collins: Little Timmy is like an Airline stock. Sometimes you wonder how he isn't better than he is; people fly, they spend a lot of money to do so, so why can't airlines make money? Timmy's left handed, strikes out a lot of people and has a crazy delivery. But wait he's walked more people than Jeff Francis in over 100 less innings. Also, lefties hit about as well as do righties; so he's not a lefty specialist, not a closer and not a set-up guy, I'd sell.
Aaron Crow: Last time we advised staying away from this stock due to the unreliability of relief pitchers. Since then he was named an All-Star, briefly made the closer and then his ERA went up 1.5 runs (supposedly he was hurt) and now he's not even the set-up man. If Crow isn't a starter, then what is he? Turns out, he's probably a flash-in-the-pan bullpen guy. I'll keep my fingers crossed, but I'm still staying away from the CROW Fund until he does what he did earlier in the year for seven innings every fifth day.
Greg Holland: Like all reliever stock, the Holland stock is overvalued, but I still really like it. The SO/BB ratio is just what you want to see from a dominant reliever...Joakim, watch your job. I'd buy this stock, it's probably still got room to grow.
Joakim Soria: Oh Joakim, why couldn't you have just kept your real nickname? Now you're just OKAY, you're not what you have been and we don't know what that means going forward. I suppose you'll get the job again next year as long as you stay healthy, but you're just not an exciting stock to own anymore. I'm still holding, but it's mainly because I overextended myself buying your stock over the past few years.
Everett Teaford: Apparently it was Everett who was mislabeled as a small cap lefty specialist. As a starter he strikes out about 9/game and dominates (until Saturday). Even though the PBR usually likes to have more data, this stock is still cheap and could fill in the hole of the hopefully departing Jeff Francis and Bruce Chen. Buy a few shares of this one and see what happens.
Blake Wood: If Blake can keep it together for the rest of the year, then at best he's the fourth piece in a big trade (see Jeremy Jeffress), but that's about it. Nothing to see here, move along. He's essentially a functioning factory on a heavy equipment manufacturers' asset sheet. Keep using it until it breaks, but if it breaks the company will keep going without missing a beat.
Felipe Paulino: The broker you have in your "market assisted brokerage account" called you up and pushed you to buy "boatloads" of Paulino in June. He said it was a young stock all the analysts were talking about because the company had recently moved into the high profit starting pitching industry. You didn't buy and your golf buddies made fun of you as the market began to warm to what is a somewhat promising growth stock.
However, the market is brutal to growth stocks that don't constantly grow and a couple of rough starts sent the stock off its 52 week high. Now the question is whether or not Paulino is worth buying now that it is trading at a valuation where growth is already accounted for in the price. Taking in the Royals’ other options in the starting pitcher market it’s a very strong Hold, hopefully you bought early.
Bruce Chen: The Powder Blue Room was short on Bruce Chen stock so hard it made the protagonists in Michael Lewis' The Big Short look like they were playing nickel slots. Any Powder Blue Room trader found to be holding a long position in the stock was immediately fired and ordered to watch a full season of Jose Guillen playing slow pitch softball in San Domingo. We created an over-the-counter market to sell call options on Chen stock because we were certain the stock would never be worth "calling".
We were wrong. Chen maintained steady free cash flow and kept his listing as a major league company. He developed into the niche industry of Jamie Moyer companies that seem to survive despite not having strong fundamentals. Companies like this rely on accounting tricks to keep earnings positive. The upside is minimal at best and the downside is immense. The prices for options on Chen stock going bankrupt are again tempting and one should never forget how close this company was to being de-listed. You might get a small dividend check every fifth start next year, but you are one bad month away from going broke. Anything times zero is zero. If you bought back in 2010, congratulations, go sell it all and buy yourself something nice. Find some other sucker to take the hot potato.
Danny Duffy: We looked into long term options of Duffy stock while he was still a company waiting to be major league listed in Omaha. The problem was that the rating agencies (Baseball America) had been touting him for a while now and his potential was priced in. It is certainly nice to see a Royals subsidiary able to beat hitters with good stuff, while throwing from the left side. This stock is admittedly in a better industry than the dot-com busts like Chris George.
You could do worse than picking yourself up a few hundred shares at this point, because the price tag never went very high on Duffy stock. There is still room for a massive turn into a company like Greinke Co. and even if he flops you will still be able to get $0.80 on the dollar and live to fight another battle. Nothing hurts more than missing the next big growth phenomenon so go buy yourself some insanity insurance and pick up a few shares. If he wins the Cy Young at least you will have some in your portfolio and not get laughed out of Jackson Hole's high speed gondola lift over your 2013 President's Day weekend ski trip.
Jeff Francis: We have to be honest here. The Powder Blue Room does not even have an analyst assigned to cover Jeff Francis stock. Someone might have mentioned this stock at a Denver investor's conference one time, but that was only because it must be included in the "AL Central Starters With Over 150 Innings Pitched Index".
We didn't even know the ticker symbol for this stock. If you own it you could use the stock certificate to diagram offensive plays for the Chiefs that might actually work. Maybe call into Cramer's lightening round and see what he thinks. The Powder Blue Room says could care less about having this one in its portfolio.
Luke Hochever: There are a lot of stubborn folks who paid a decent price for this stock when it had its IPO out of a Fort Worth bucket shop. Those folks are still holding on in the dear hope that the stock reaches that level again. If you are an institutional investor you certainly have to have a block of this stuff because he's good enough to be included in all the S&P (Starters and Pitchers) Index Pitching Funds. Hochevar could still end up as a decent innings eating, dividend paying stock that churns out decent profits over time. We bought our block at a reasonable price and we're reasonable people, so we are going to hold on, take our steady dividend and reinvest elsewhere.
The Royals stock is up, but will we see it continue to grow in fiscal year 2012? As a whole, we think so, but there are still some serious assets missing and some we feel are overvalued by current Royals Fund Manger Dayton Moore. Dayton’s done a good job of gutting the system and getting some fundamental earnings potential back in the Royals portfolio, but next year and this offseason will really tell the tale on where the Royals go from here.
The Players
Melky Cabrera: Gloating is pretty much the main impetus for why anyone would write a blog, and last time we nailed Melky to a T. It still didn't stop Dayton from signing Frenchy to a long-term deal and ignoring the advice of the PBR Hedge Fund. The problem is that Melky is a good stock to have in YOUR portfolio, but no one is dying to pay more than it's worth to have it in their portfolio. So Dayton will go into the offseason looking to trade Melky and cash in, but I think he's going to be disappointed when the Philles don't offer Cole Hamels for him. After his surge, he's now just a Hold, no longer a buy. Good luck finding a buyer Dayton, you know he's not a CF, right?
Alex Gordon: I want so badly to take profits and look for another downtrodden stock to flip, but I can't bring myself to pull the trigger. If his stock goes any higher - in terms of real, not perceived value - the Royals have themselves a legit star. However, when he sprains a pinkie finger that keeps him out of the line-up all next year, this season will be a distant memory. I have a feeling Dayton is ready to put about $50 mil into the GORDON Homegrown STAR fund; it's a play you have to make regardless of the pure logic behind the situation, so I concur. I'm still scared every time the stock loses value that it won't recover, but let's go all in on Gordon and if we get burned, then so be it. We need look no further than Minnesota and Joe Mauer to see a cautionary tale, but Gordon is still about $130 mil cheaper risk. At this point nobody can really come back and say you shouldn't have bought into GORDON stock, so go long and get as many options as you can.
Jeff Francouer: There is a certain GM who feels this is a good stock and there is still a certain Royals' blog which feels it's going to tank. Right now Francouer is very good and Dayton has the right to say "I told you so" to the legions of Frenchy doubters out there, but even the best odds would give Frenchy a 50/50 shot at repeating this year's performance. And if the coin flip lands on the wrong side, majority share holder's Dayton Co. will be left with another overextended asset clogging up space in your portfolio. I didn't buy when it was cheap, I didn't buy when it went up and down early this year, and I'm certainly not going to buy the FRENCHY Veteran Leader Index Growth fund while it's at a new 52 week high. I'm more than willing to be wrong on this pass, I'll take my chances.
Mitch Maier: Does anyone even remember the ticker symbol for this stock? Given that 500 shares of Maier Inc. costs about as much as a frozen pizza, I recommend buying. I can easily see someone else taking over Maier Inc. and squeezing more value out than the Royals seem to get (The Tampa Bay Hedge Fund, maybe?).
Billy Butler: The Billy Butler Dividend Fund is a must have for every investor. You are going to get a 4.5% yield and its going to come every three months. Billy should fire the compensation committee (his agents) that gave CEO Dayton a true club option that will reduce the window of his most profitable re-sign years with no upside. But that's not the Royals' problem, because they hold that long term call option at around $13 million if they want it. It’s fun to be in a good position and that is what the Royals are in here. Billy Co. is going to crank out steady value and don’t forget that he’s still a year shy of the Jamesian Peak Earnings Age. Buy steadily (using dollar cost averaging).
Bryan Pena: See Mitch Maier.
Salvador Perez: What a turn of events. Dayton makes the typical CEO mistake of drastically overpaying for Jason Kendall stock because he went to business school, where they teach you that purchasing a mature catching company as part of an acquisition spree will create "synergies" (game calling), "vertical integration" (leadership) and help "diversify" (veteran) your product line. These are all horrible reasons for a team such as the Royals to open their wallet. The Powder Blue Room offers an online MBA course for GM's of small market, lower tier revenue clubs. The course contains one Power Point slide. It is a white back ground with black letters that say "Find Young Talent Cheaply". That's it. Nothing there about "veteran leadership", "delight in the clubhouse", "ability to call a game" etc... These are all reasonable qualities in a stock, but the Royals need talent. Worry about the other stuff when you bust into the Dow Jones Industrial Index.
Salvador Perez is a stock that is still flying under the radar, but probably not for long. He can barley buy a shot of Patron, yet he is major league listed. This is where an analyst needs to walk the factory floor. Not too many analysts walk the floor of The K these days and they are missing an opportunity. If you watch closely you will see that his defense as a catcher is actually fun to watch. Really, this is true. He looks pretty blocking balls. The safety is always off on the cannon. Catching does not look difficult for him. Keep in mind that catching at the major league level is extremely difficult.
If he can monetize his online hitting platform, you are looking at an early retirement. If he doesn't you will probably get your money back. At the current stock price you are looking at "heads I win, tails I don't lose that much". Take advantage of everyone that read the analysts' reports (Baseball America) that said he is only a defensive catcher before they look at his game film, buy and don't stop until you hit early retirement.
Chris Getz: Even Dayton and Ned finally sold this one. When you have 8 extra base hits in over 400 plate appearances, you're not a major league starter. Now that I don't have to evaluate him as such, we can finally put a fair valuation on Chris. As a pinch runner and back-up to the back-up infielder, he's perfectly fine, I'd even buy at that price. As long as I don't have to write another article about why he is hitting leadoff, then all is cool between the PBR and the Getzie Coaches’ Kid Fund. Buy very, very, very, very low.
Erik Hosmer: Hosmer plays baseball like Bill Gates codes C++. It’s just what he does. That is how we feel about Hosmer stock. He just looks like he can play baseball. He looks good against quality pitching. He looks good catching the ball. He looks good adjusting his cap. He looks good smiling at the camera. He looks good chewing tobacco. He looks good cleaning his fingernails…you get the idea.
Of course, it’s all about price and Hosmer stock isn't a cheap stock. The stock price has him fairly valued.....for the most part. But Hosmer stock is similar to a large retail company that owns all the land under its stores and the market is missing it. Hosmer is valued as a prospect in the mold of Moustakas stock, but he has clearly already passed that and is soon to be compared with the Texiera large cap first base funds. You don't really have a choice here. You've got to buy a little high and hope to sell higher. There is a good chance the current price is going to look dirt cheap in a couple of years. Don't let your neighbors laugh and speak ill of you on the 16th hole, buy the stock.
Johnny Giavotella: Wildly overvalued from the get-go, but who wouldn't like this stock? Always undervalued (he's 5'8", haven't you heard), but with real potential (extra base power). My valuations of him were always based on the fact the he couldn't have been worse than Getz, but I still advocated for the Aviles fund to be kept around (He's hitting .340 for the RED SOX, by the way). I'm actually quite curious about this stock, so I own a few shares just for fun. I could see a Dustin Pedroia ALLSTAR Index Fund or I could see Cris Getz beating him out for the job next year. It's probably one of the more interesting stocks in the Royals portfolio, so you might as well have a few shares.
Alcides Escobar: Alcides is like buying a Jackson Pollack painting. If you’re already rich it’s fun to show off, but if you’re broke you should probably sell it and pay employees that make money for you. I like to look at Alcides too, but I’ve been reading the Dayton Moore Investor’s Report and he’s convinced that this is a necessary piece to have in your portfolio. It’s not. He’s still one of the worst hitters in baseball, yes worse than YUNI. That backhand is awesome, but he’s still burning through cash with his OBP. If you can find another art collector who’ll give you 10x what you paid then take it and build another factory. If not keep looking at it and hope you get rich enough to buy a room for it.
Mike Moustakas: What to do? If you looked through a catalogue of baseball stocks and saw a 3B stock under 6'-0", slightly pudgy, not very smooth in the field (or overall for that matter), you certainly would not pay the price that Dayton Moore is probably currently asking. This is where the Powder Blue Room analysts have their questions. Inside our glass encased, sound proof, off-shore conference room, the PBR has had many a conference call stating our reservations about picking up a big block of Moose stock. We like our blue chips to look, act and move like one. Moose stock sure doesn't look like Erik Hosmer stock. He doesn't walk like Hosmer stock, isn’t nearly as smooth; he doesn't even throw the ball back to the pitcher in same suave fashion that Hosmer does. We are well aware that one can't make an investment decision based on the company printed annual report, but we like our blue chip stocks to look and act the part.
It’s nice to see Moose stock end the year hitting well, but if Dayton called and said we could trade him back to Milwaukee for a controlling stake in Greinke Co., we’d give the order to pull out of Moose stock. You could try and hedge, but don't bother, the rest of the league has already beat you to that position. If you can find a sucker SELL. Otherwise; dance with whom you brought.
The Pitchers
Nate Adcock: Nate is like a Farmers National Bank Platnium Select Savings Account; everybody should have a few bucks in a savings account because it will be there when you need it. However, no team has ever won the World Series with the Nate Adcocks of the world. And whether or not Nate is in Japan next season or pitching for the Royals he won't suddenly make you a 90 win team. Not a Buy, but if you've got a few bucks tucked away in an Adcock 1yr CD, just save it for a rainy day.
Louis Coleman: This stock has taken a beating lately. People who bought high are now stuck taking losses, but if he's your fourth best reliever, all is well with your bullpen. Hold.
Tim Collins: Little Timmy is like an Airline stock. Sometimes you wonder how he isn't better than he is; people fly, they spend a lot of money to do so, so why can't airlines make money? Timmy's left handed, strikes out a lot of people and has a crazy delivery. But wait he's walked more people than Jeff Francis in over 100 less innings. Also, lefties hit about as well as do righties; so he's not a lefty specialist, not a closer and not a set-up guy, I'd sell.
Aaron Crow: Last time we advised staying away from this stock due to the unreliability of relief pitchers. Since then he was named an All-Star, briefly made the closer and then his ERA went up 1.5 runs (supposedly he was hurt) and now he's not even the set-up man. If Crow isn't a starter, then what is he? Turns out, he's probably a flash-in-the-pan bullpen guy. I'll keep my fingers crossed, but I'm still staying away from the CROW Fund until he does what he did earlier in the year for seven innings every fifth day.
Greg Holland: Like all reliever stock, the Holland stock is overvalued, but I still really like it. The SO/BB ratio is just what you want to see from a dominant reliever...Joakim, watch your job. I'd buy this stock, it's probably still got room to grow.
Joakim Soria: Oh Joakim, why couldn't you have just kept your real nickname? Now you're just OKAY, you're not what you have been and we don't know what that means going forward. I suppose you'll get the job again next year as long as you stay healthy, but you're just not an exciting stock to own anymore. I'm still holding, but it's mainly because I overextended myself buying your stock over the past few years.
Everett Teaford: Apparently it was Everett who was mislabeled as a small cap lefty specialist. As a starter he strikes out about 9/game and dominates (until Saturday). Even though the PBR usually likes to have more data, this stock is still cheap and could fill in the hole of the hopefully departing Jeff Francis and Bruce Chen. Buy a few shares of this one and see what happens.
Blake Wood: If Blake can keep it together for the rest of the year, then at best he's the fourth piece in a big trade (see Jeremy Jeffress), but that's about it. Nothing to see here, move along. He's essentially a functioning factory on a heavy equipment manufacturers' asset sheet. Keep using it until it breaks, but if it breaks the company will keep going without missing a beat.
Felipe Paulino: The broker you have in your "market assisted brokerage account" called you up and pushed you to buy "boatloads" of Paulino in June. He said it was a young stock all the analysts were talking about because the company had recently moved into the high profit starting pitching industry. You didn't buy and your golf buddies made fun of you as the market began to warm to what is a somewhat promising growth stock.
However, the market is brutal to growth stocks that don't constantly grow and a couple of rough starts sent the stock off its 52 week high. Now the question is whether or not Paulino is worth buying now that it is trading at a valuation where growth is already accounted for in the price. Taking in the Royals’ other options in the starting pitcher market it’s a very strong Hold, hopefully you bought early.
Bruce Chen: The Powder Blue Room was short on Bruce Chen stock so hard it made the protagonists in Michael Lewis' The Big Short look like they were playing nickel slots. Any Powder Blue Room trader found to be holding a long position in the stock was immediately fired and ordered to watch a full season of Jose Guillen playing slow pitch softball in San Domingo. We created an over-the-counter market to sell call options on Chen stock because we were certain the stock would never be worth "calling".
We were wrong. Chen maintained steady free cash flow and kept his listing as a major league company. He developed into the niche industry of Jamie Moyer companies that seem to survive despite not having strong fundamentals. Companies like this rely on accounting tricks to keep earnings positive. The upside is minimal at best and the downside is immense. The prices for options on Chen stock going bankrupt are again tempting and one should never forget how close this company was to being de-listed. You might get a small dividend check every fifth start next year, but you are one bad month away from going broke. Anything times zero is zero. If you bought back in 2010, congratulations, go sell it all and buy yourself something nice. Find some other sucker to take the hot potato.
Danny Duffy: We looked into long term options of Duffy stock while he was still a company waiting to be major league listed in Omaha. The problem was that the rating agencies (Baseball America) had been touting him for a while now and his potential was priced in. It is certainly nice to see a Royals subsidiary able to beat hitters with good stuff, while throwing from the left side. This stock is admittedly in a better industry than the dot-com busts like Chris George.
You could do worse than picking yourself up a few hundred shares at this point, because the price tag never went very high on Duffy stock. There is still room for a massive turn into a company like Greinke Co. and even if he flops you will still be able to get $0.80 on the dollar and live to fight another battle. Nothing hurts more than missing the next big growth phenomenon so go buy yourself some insanity insurance and pick up a few shares. If he wins the Cy Young at least you will have some in your portfolio and not get laughed out of Jackson Hole's high speed gondola lift over your 2013 President's Day weekend ski trip.
Jeff Francis: We have to be honest here. The Powder Blue Room does not even have an analyst assigned to cover Jeff Francis stock. Someone might have mentioned this stock at a Denver investor's conference one time, but that was only because it must be included in the "AL Central Starters With Over 150 Innings Pitched Index".
We didn't even know the ticker symbol for this stock. If you own it you could use the stock certificate to diagram offensive plays for the Chiefs that might actually work. Maybe call into Cramer's lightening round and see what he thinks. The Powder Blue Room says could care less about having this one in its portfolio.
Luke Hochever: There are a lot of stubborn folks who paid a decent price for this stock when it had its IPO out of a Fort Worth bucket shop. Those folks are still holding on in the dear hope that the stock reaches that level again. If you are an institutional investor you certainly have to have a block of this stuff because he's good enough to be included in all the S&P (Starters and Pitchers) Index Pitching Funds. Hochevar could still end up as a decent innings eating, dividend paying stock that churns out decent profits over time. We bought our block at a reasonable price and we're reasonable people, so we are going to hold on, take our steady dividend and reinvest elsewhere.
The Royals stock is up, but will we see it continue to grow in fiscal year 2012? As a whole, we think so, but there are still some serious assets missing and some we feel are overvalued by current Royals Fund Manger Dayton Moore. Dayton’s done a good job of gutting the system and getting some fundamental earnings potential back in the Royals portfolio, but next year and this offseason will really tell the tale on where the Royals go from here.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)