Nobody said defending the Cactus league would be easy, but let's catch-up on what's happening down there in Surprise, AZ.
Chen and Sanchez have sucked: I had wanted to kill the subject of Dayton Moore's offseason starting pitcher aquisitions, but I just can't let it go. I realize that spring training stats are to be taken with a huge grain of salt, but these two have had really bad stat lines thus far and I'm starting to worry this won't stop once the season rolls around. If both of these experiments go wrong, we've got some serious problems. Don't forget that these were two of the three "locks" to make the rotation, per Yosty. I'm not sure if this is really something to panic about yet, but we might have to readjust our upside hopes for Jonathan Sanchez.
No, you're not dreaming: This was some breaking news that has sent hard core Royals bloggers tail-spinning through the three stages of grief. We started to see it happening, and we denied it. Then it was confirmed, and we spun into depression. Now we must simply cope with the fact that YUNI might get more at-bats than we had originally hoped. But lets face it, this is due to the fact that for all of the Royals' prospects, they simply do not have one at 2B. Most teams would have chosen EITHER Chris Getz or Yuniesky Betancourt before spring training, but not the Royals. We needed to have both of these guys in camp in order to cloud the fact that Giavotella should be given the chance to lose the job for at least a half season. Getzie and Yuni have already lost their respective jobs at least once, but the charitable Dayton Moore is giving one last chance to the guy who hasn't hit a home run in two years and the guy who hasn't had an OBP of .300 since 2008. I have to believe that the $3 mil going to those two could have netted you something more useful.
The Duffman impresses: For three innings Danny Duffy looked like the pitcher the Royals desperately need him to be. Forget the fact that he followed it up with a less impressive stat line, Duffy might be the most important starting pitcher on the staff. If the Royals have a potential #1 starter, it's Duffy. Here is a much, much more detailed analysis of the start and potential Duffy possesses. That the Royals need a front end starter is no surprise, but Duffy becoming Cole Hamels could be the difference between battling for 3rd place with the Indians or 1st place with the Tigers.
The hitters are hitting (mostly): Hosmer, Butler, Gordon and even Cain have all been hitting well this spring. Moose, Frenchy and Giavotella not so much. However, I would argue that those first four are much more important the others. We know that scoring runs wasn't the Royals' problem last year and hopefully we can expect more of the same this year. It will be interesting to see who are the Royals' fourth and fifth best hitters this year, but if the top three aren't Butler, Hosmer and Gordon in some order, something probably went wrong.
Dayton's ink: I think Dayton Moore got so tired of negotiating with Alex Gordon and his agent that he went straight to the two people most likely to sign long-term team friendly contracts. Enter Sal Perez and Acides Escobar and their multi-year deals. These deals have been roundly praised and have such little down side that they might be the two best contracts signed in the history of the organization. If you can lock up a SS and catcher for several years to come and part with less money than you'll be paying your closer next year, there isn't much for even your biggest critics to say. Unfortunately, it took about one week for the Royals to see the only thing that could possibly go wrong. This sucks, a lot!
The wild card: Luis Mendoza just won't go away. From bullpen failure to possible rotation candidate, I have no idea where to come down on this situation. Barring an injury, I'm not sure where he fits in, other than long relief. But then again, I wouldn't mind seeing the guy get a few starts on the off chance he's unlocked some potential which was hidden deep down in the depths of that right arm. Most likely this is nothing more than a nice spring training redemption story, but you just never know. The fact that something has to go wrong for another pitcher is the only thing keeping me from getting on the Mendoza band wagon.
More bad news: This is just plain sad. We thought he was our Mariano, but now the future of the closer formerly know as the Mexicutioner is in serious trouble. Even though we have some good replacement options, Joakim's injury is a real downer to start the season.
Ah, the ups and downs of spring training. Lets hope the Royals are getting the bad luck out of the way early because we're one more big injury away from really having to hit the panic button.
Monday, March 19, 2012
Sunday, February 26, 2012
The PBR Oscars
Pretty soon Brad Pitt and George Clooney will look good wearing expensive tuxedos, LOTS of people will be thanked, at least one person will cry and we'll all watch on as the Academy Awards are handed out to random people for work on movies we've never seen or awards that never should have been invented. Then, finally, we'll get to see the awards for best actor, movie and director. Here at the PBR we'll dispense with all of that and just go straight to the most important awards...
Best Actor: Unlike the real Oscars, the Royals actually had two very strong candidates for this years award. Alex Gordon played the forgotten local hero, who had been cast out and now comes back to regain the hearts and minds of the people who had written him off. While Melky Cabrera played the new comer with A Lot of baggage (about 30 lbs.) who had to win over the people with an outstanding performance. Both exceeded expectations and put together two great performances, which in any other year might have made them locks for the award. Alas, someone has to take home the award. Both of these actors showed tons of promise early on by becoming breakout teenage stars, however something happened in their mid 20s and they started taking on roles not meant for them. Alex was miscast as the next Brad Pitt (George Brett) for years and this year he finally was able to shed those lofty expectations and settle for the next Jeff Bridges, reliable but not so unattainable. Similarly, Melky had high expectations placed on him as the next Bernie Williams on the big stage in New York, that did not happen and he ended up down-and-out in Hot Lanta doing cameos as the villan on CSI Miami episodes. It strikes me that Melky should take home the award due to the degree of difficulty in his turn around, Gordon's performance was technically better, but Melky's was more surprising and grittier. Alex's role was about like a Tom Hanks performance, while Melky's was more like the indie actor who never had a shot. And the award goes to...Alex Gordon.
No surprise here, there just wasn't enough support for Melky and Alex's movie was the higher grossing, studio film tear jerker that the voters really can get behind. Congrats to Alex! Hopefully he profusely thanks Kevin Sitzer.
My Prediction for the real Oscars: Brad Pitt for Moneyball in a shocker.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role: Eric Hosmer, and it's not even close. This is a classic best supporting actor win for Hosmer in that he stole the show but was only limited from the best actor category due to his service time. Next year he'll be up there with Pitt and Clooney, but he had to go through the supporting category first. Hosmer's win this year is something akin to Heath Ledger's win for Dark Knight or Javier Bardem's for No County because it was so impossible that it could go to anyone else. His performance in the second half of last season will literally bring people to the ball bark this season. It was the sort of role the Royals have been patiently waiting to be filled; Beltran and Damon came close, Sweeney for about two years, Gordon couldn't do it until it was too late, if you thought Angel Berroa was going to do it you were crazy, Billy Butler doesn't quite have it, Grienke came very close for one season, but Hosmer is the guy who actually makes other teams jealous. And we've got him for six years. Keep your fingers crossed.
My Prediction for the real Oscars: Jonah Hill for Moneyball in a shocker.
Best Director: Another easy one. Jeff Francouer!!! After spending the last few seasons directing TV commercials after failing to live up to his next-big-thing hype. Francouer was signed by producer Dayton Moore to direct the uber feel good rom com of long time losers finally turning things around. His comedy routine is pretty, well, routine. However, if you smash enough pies in peoples faces, make enough "great win for the team" post game speeches, get your own fan club, and just smile for the camera A LOT, sometimes it works. The PBR does not see Jeff Francouer turning into Peter Jackson and directing the next great trilogy, but Dayton needed the veteran presence/leader type to carry his young team into the future and whatever you (I) may think of Dayton, he's earned the right to choose Francouer as the Director.
My Prediction for the real Oscars: Whoever directed Moneyball, despite not being nominated.
Best Actress: Chris Getz. I'm sorry Chris, but I had to. In 604 career ABs with the Royals you've yet to hit a home run. People get called a "Sally" for much less than that in little league.
My Prediction for the real Oscars: Were there any females in Moneyball?
Best Actress in a Supporting Role: Luke Hochevar. No, this is really the year he turns it around. Well you never know, here's hoping that he's this year's Alex Gordon and not Kyle Davies. But another +5.00 ERA and I'm done, and so should be Dayton.
My Prediction for the real Oscars: Brad Pitt's daughter in Moneyball?
Contratulations to everyone, enjoy your statues and here's to Spring Training games in the near future!
Best Actor: Unlike the real Oscars, the Royals actually had two very strong candidates for this years award. Alex Gordon played the forgotten local hero, who had been cast out and now comes back to regain the hearts and minds of the people who had written him off. While Melky Cabrera played the new comer with A Lot of baggage (about 30 lbs.) who had to win over the people with an outstanding performance. Both exceeded expectations and put together two great performances, which in any other year might have made them locks for the award. Alas, someone has to take home the award. Both of these actors showed tons of promise early on by becoming breakout teenage stars, however something happened in their mid 20s and they started taking on roles not meant for them. Alex was miscast as the next Brad Pitt (George Brett) for years and this year he finally was able to shed those lofty expectations and settle for the next Jeff Bridges, reliable but not so unattainable. Similarly, Melky had high expectations placed on him as the next Bernie Williams on the big stage in New York, that did not happen and he ended up down-and-out in Hot Lanta doing cameos as the villan on CSI Miami episodes. It strikes me that Melky should take home the award due to the degree of difficulty in his turn around, Gordon's performance was technically better, but Melky's was more surprising and grittier. Alex's role was about like a Tom Hanks performance, while Melky's was more like the indie actor who never had a shot. And the award goes to...Alex Gordon.
No surprise here, there just wasn't enough support for Melky and Alex's movie was the higher grossing, studio film tear jerker that the voters really can get behind. Congrats to Alex! Hopefully he profusely thanks Kevin Sitzer.
My Prediction for the real Oscars: Brad Pitt for Moneyball in a shocker.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role: Eric Hosmer, and it's not even close. This is a classic best supporting actor win for Hosmer in that he stole the show but was only limited from the best actor category due to his service time. Next year he'll be up there with Pitt and Clooney, but he had to go through the supporting category first. Hosmer's win this year is something akin to Heath Ledger's win for Dark Knight or Javier Bardem's for No County because it was so impossible that it could go to anyone else. His performance in the second half of last season will literally bring people to the ball bark this season. It was the sort of role the Royals have been patiently waiting to be filled; Beltran and Damon came close, Sweeney for about two years, Gordon couldn't do it until it was too late, if you thought Angel Berroa was going to do it you were crazy, Billy Butler doesn't quite have it, Grienke came very close for one season, but Hosmer is the guy who actually makes other teams jealous. And we've got him for six years. Keep your fingers crossed.
My Prediction for the real Oscars: Jonah Hill for Moneyball in a shocker.
Best Director: Another easy one. Jeff Francouer!!! After spending the last few seasons directing TV commercials after failing to live up to his next-big-thing hype. Francouer was signed by producer Dayton Moore to direct the uber feel good rom com of long time losers finally turning things around. His comedy routine is pretty, well, routine. However, if you smash enough pies in peoples faces, make enough "great win for the team" post game speeches, get your own fan club, and just smile for the camera A LOT, sometimes it works. The PBR does not see Jeff Francouer turning into Peter Jackson and directing the next great trilogy, but Dayton needed the veteran presence/leader type to carry his young team into the future and whatever you (I) may think of Dayton, he's earned the right to choose Francouer as the Director.
My Prediction for the real Oscars: Whoever directed Moneyball, despite not being nominated.
Best Actress: Chris Getz. I'm sorry Chris, but I had to. In 604 career ABs with the Royals you've yet to hit a home run. People get called a "Sally" for much less than that in little league.
My Prediction for the real Oscars: Were there any females in Moneyball?
Best Actress in a Supporting Role: Luke Hochevar. No, this is really the year he turns it around. Well you never know, here's hoping that he's this year's Alex Gordon and not Kyle Davies. But another +5.00 ERA and I'm done, and so should be Dayton.
My Prediction for the real Oscars: Brad Pitt's daughter in Moneyball?
Contratulations to everyone, enjoy your statues and here's to Spring Training games in the near future!
Thursday, February 9, 2012
Would that it were
Barring any last minute Dayton Moore head scratchers, the Royals have had a pretty tame offseason. We're all expecting that Alex Gordon contract extension, but it probably won't get any of us too excited. However, the seemingly harmless signings (mostly REsignings) and trades from this offseason present us with some interesting "what if" scenarios after a second look. Hopefully this will give you some food for thought until we can analyze the Gordon extension, spring training or Dayton's controversial signing of a back-up DH. Anyway, would you rather have....
Melky Cabrera in RF this season and $7.5 million next season or Frenchy for those two years? I'm hopefully going to be moving on to bigger battles than the Jeff Francoer signing, but for now this is a legitimate question and one which will help to judge Dayton Moore's talent evaluation radar. So far he's held onto his biggest prospect trading chip in Wil Meyers, but if he dominates this season - as expected - his progression is completely blocked by Frenchy and his $7.5 million salary in 2013. My hope is that Dayton is still eyeing a big trade with Meyers as the center piece when the Royals are ready to contend. But if Frenchy is hitting .250 in 2013 and taking playing time away from SUPER DUPER PROSPECT Wil Meyers, then I'm going to write a super nasty blog post all about it (gotta love internet anonymity). Granted the Jonathan Sanchez trade would not have happened, but we'll get to that.
The above scenario plus no Bruce Chen. Under this scenario you get $10 mil this year (Chen + Sanchez, Cabrera and Frenchy are a push) and $12 next season (Bruce + Frenchy) to make a run at a free agent starter? What does 2 years and $20+ mil get you? Maybe Roy Oswalt? Half of Yu Darvish's posing fee? Edwin Jackson and Oswalt? The answer is not entirely clear this year because Sanchez and Chen are might be a better bet than those options, but it's hard to believe the $12 mil in 2013 wouldn't be more useful elsewhere. And let's face it, if a top 5 farm system can't replace the production of Frenchy and Chen by 2013, then the team has probably failed miserably. As it stands now, we have the two best locker room pranksters in the biz for two more years and $22 mil. These contracts are not unreasonable, and have a little upside, but still that is some decent coin which could have been thrown at a starter. The point is more that the Royals really had no pressing need to fill these holes, especially not in 2013; if Myers isn't as good as Frenchy by 2013 something went wrong, dido on Mike Montgomery (or someone else) surpassing Chen. Next year the Royals will start to have some fairly high salaries (Butler, Gordon, Soria, etc.) so let's hope that $12 mil won't prevent us from getting a real difference maker when the time is right.
Chen for two years and $9 mil or Jeff Francis and no guaranteed money. This one surprised me. Jeff Francis has had more prior success, is younger and was healthier in 2011. However, he had to take a minor league deal from the Reds while Chen parlayed 25 starts last year into a nice little 2-year contract. Sure his ERA was higher and he didn't have that sparkling win-loss record, but Francis pitched in more games and piled on more innings and stayed off the DL. This is less about the Royals, but I just don't see how that adds up, it seems like a great backup plan and the Reds might get 200 innings for next to nothing. But then again, they they don't get moments like this one.
Bruce Chen for two years or Edwin Jackson for one? In fairness, when Bruce Chen signed Jackson and Scott Boras still thought he was getting 5 years and $80 mil. Now this happened. It was an interesting fall from a starter with so much experience, but a rotation featuring Sanchez, Jackson, Hochevar, Paulino and Duffy has some real upside. The Royals could have had this and not been out a prospect or even very much money, but I digress. I promise this is the last I mention Bruce Chen in this post.
Alex Gordon or Zack Greinke? I don't know where this is coming from, but committing big money to Gordon might mean no big free agent contracts for a couple of years and obviously Greinke coming back is not very likely. Still $50 mil to Gordon isn't exactly the safest bet in the world based on past performance. However, the safe and relatively modest contract extensions like the one Gordon would get usually work out better in the end than $100+ mil to a free agent pitcher. Here's a more intriguing question; would the Royals 2012 season be a lot more promising if they had never traded Greinke? What if you take the current team, put Jarrod Dyson in CF and Marco Scutaro at SS? With Greinke at the top of the rotation, you can really start to believe in this team contending now. Colorado got Scutaro for basically nothing and as good as Escobar is on defense I don't think you lose anything by essentially swapping him for Dyson; elite defensive CF for elite defensive SS, neither of whom can hit? If only Greinke had known we were just a Greinke away from contending in 2012!
Being an internet GM is fun, especially in February. GM Dayton Moore did not sign Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols, Yu Darvish or even Edwin Jackson. He stayed pretty calm this offseason and seems to be in a wait-and-see mode for 2012. I think he wants badly to be in it at the deadline to make a big trade that will get the Royals to the playoffs for the first time in 26 years. However, the team may have taken a big step back by doing so little this offseason. The Tigers made their move, the AL West is stacked at the top, the East may have four teams better than the Royals and is this going to change anytime soon? It's not that far-fetched that one of the White Sox, Twins or Indians could turn it around. The way I see it the Royals could have stepped up this year and made themselves heard, but opted for the safe plays all around. Let's hope it works out.
Melky Cabrera in RF this season and $7.5 million next season or Frenchy for those two years? I'm hopefully going to be moving on to bigger battles than the Jeff Francoer signing, but for now this is a legitimate question and one which will help to judge Dayton Moore's talent evaluation radar. So far he's held onto his biggest prospect trading chip in Wil Meyers, but if he dominates this season - as expected - his progression is completely blocked by Frenchy and his $7.5 million salary in 2013. My hope is that Dayton is still eyeing a big trade with Meyers as the center piece when the Royals are ready to contend. But if Frenchy is hitting .250 in 2013 and taking playing time away from SUPER DUPER PROSPECT Wil Meyers, then I'm going to write a super nasty blog post all about it (gotta love internet anonymity). Granted the Jonathan Sanchez trade would not have happened, but we'll get to that.
The above scenario plus no Bruce Chen. Under this scenario you get $10 mil this year (Chen + Sanchez, Cabrera and Frenchy are a push) and $12 next season (Bruce + Frenchy) to make a run at a free agent starter? What does 2 years and $20+ mil get you? Maybe Roy Oswalt? Half of Yu Darvish's posing fee? Edwin Jackson and Oswalt? The answer is not entirely clear this year because Sanchez and Chen are might be a better bet than those options, but it's hard to believe the $12 mil in 2013 wouldn't be more useful elsewhere. And let's face it, if a top 5 farm system can't replace the production of Frenchy and Chen by 2013, then the team has probably failed miserably. As it stands now, we have the two best locker room pranksters in the biz for two more years and $22 mil. These contracts are not unreasonable, and have a little upside, but still that is some decent coin which could have been thrown at a starter. The point is more that the Royals really had no pressing need to fill these holes, especially not in 2013; if Myers isn't as good as Frenchy by 2013 something went wrong, dido on Mike Montgomery (or someone else) surpassing Chen. Next year the Royals will start to have some fairly high salaries (Butler, Gordon, Soria, etc.) so let's hope that $12 mil won't prevent us from getting a real difference maker when the time is right.
Chen for two years and $9 mil or Jeff Francis and no guaranteed money. This one surprised me. Jeff Francis has had more prior success, is younger and was healthier in 2011. However, he had to take a minor league deal from the Reds while Chen parlayed 25 starts last year into a nice little 2-year contract. Sure his ERA was higher and he didn't have that sparkling win-loss record, but Francis pitched in more games and piled on more innings and stayed off the DL. This is less about the Royals, but I just don't see how that adds up, it seems like a great backup plan and the Reds might get 200 innings for next to nothing. But then again, they they don't get moments like this one.
Bruce Chen for two years or Edwin Jackson for one? In fairness, when Bruce Chen signed Jackson and Scott Boras still thought he was getting 5 years and $80 mil. Now this happened. It was an interesting fall from a starter with so much experience, but a rotation featuring Sanchez, Jackson, Hochevar, Paulino and Duffy has some real upside. The Royals could have had this and not been out a prospect or even very much money, but I digress. I promise this is the last I mention Bruce Chen in this post.
Alex Gordon or Zack Greinke? I don't know where this is coming from, but committing big money to Gordon might mean no big free agent contracts for a couple of years and obviously Greinke coming back is not very likely. Still $50 mil to Gordon isn't exactly the safest bet in the world based on past performance. However, the safe and relatively modest contract extensions like the one Gordon would get usually work out better in the end than $100+ mil to a free agent pitcher. Here's a more intriguing question; would the Royals 2012 season be a lot more promising if they had never traded Greinke? What if you take the current team, put Jarrod Dyson in CF and Marco Scutaro at SS? With Greinke at the top of the rotation, you can really start to believe in this team contending now. Colorado got Scutaro for basically nothing and as good as Escobar is on defense I don't think you lose anything by essentially swapping him for Dyson; elite defensive CF for elite defensive SS, neither of whom can hit? If only Greinke had known we were just a Greinke away from contending in 2012!
Being an internet GM is fun, especially in February. GM Dayton Moore did not sign Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols, Yu Darvish or even Edwin Jackson. He stayed pretty calm this offseason and seems to be in a wait-and-see mode for 2012. I think he wants badly to be in it at the deadline to make a big trade that will get the Royals to the playoffs for the first time in 26 years. However, the team may have taken a big step back by doing so little this offseason. The Tigers made their move, the AL West is stacked at the top, the East may have four teams better than the Royals and is this going to change anytime soon? It's not that far-fetched that one of the White Sox, Twins or Indians could turn it around. The way I see it the Royals could have stepped up this year and made themselves heard, but opted for the safe plays all around. Let's hope it works out.
Saturday, January 14, 2012
2012
Apologies to the legions of PBR fans who've been waiting patiently for more cutting edge offseason analysis. However, we've literally been speechless since Christmas came early and Dayton put a big lump of Yuniesky Betancourt under our tree. Spring training is right around the corner and the Royals are preparing to head off for the sunshine of Arizona hoping to defend their Cactus League title with a group of young homegrown talent (and Yuni, Frenchy and Cheny too). So what has Moore done this offseason in preparation for the most promising season in recent memory?
Step 1: Make the safe but smart trade for possible rotation help. The Melky for Sanchez flip was classic Dayton. He rebuilt Melky's career, looked smart in doing so, and pounced on the opportunity to turn him into a big upside starting pitcher. This trade needs little review; it had to be done. You had to get rid of Cain or Cabrera this offseason or face the same consequence of letting one of the pieces of the Grienke deal rot away in AAA. This was a good use of Cabrera and now we get to find out what, if anything, we've got in Lorenzo Cain. We just have to keep our fingers crossed and hope Sanchez has another good season left in his left arm.
Step 2: Pretend you are willing to trade your young prospects for big name starting pitchers. Latos, Gonzalez and Cahill went for varying degrees of prospect hauls, and the Royals were rumored to be "interested" in all of them. However, Dayton and/or the Royals just aren't there yet. The Melky/Sanchez trade allowed Dayton to stand his ground and horde his prospects for a rainy day. I wanted to see the big trade, but maybe they're still a year away, who knows? The bottom line is that this surprised NO ONE!
Step 3: Take the most obvious route possible and re-sign BRUCE CHEN. It's hard for me to get worked up about this since I've been wrong on Chen for two consecutive years, and you have to agree with the consensus that he has the "good clubhouse guy" thing down. But at the very least this was unnecessary. Again, it's the safe play and there is very little chance of it backfiring, but Tim Tebow is more likely to be starting game two of a playoff series for the Royals than B Chen. On the flip side if he goes 10-10 and eats 200 innings this year, it's another win for Dayton.
Step 4: Take a flyer on a once great closer beaten down by arm injuries. On the face of it, signing Jonathan Broxton is just plain stupid. The Royals have plenty of bullpen arms. However, deep down it's really the same as signing Jeff Francouer or Melky Cabrera last year; if it works great, if not nobody is hurt.
Step 5: Take away from on the field issues by forcing out your TV announcer; a beloved franchise figure and community leader. Oh yeah, this was Fox Sports...of course Dayton had no part in it. Who knows what to believe in this story? Frank was most definitely not Vin Scully, but I might be listening to the radio broadcasts a lot more this season.
Step 6: Yuni Redux! Dayton proves to everyone that he is completely oblivious. He voluntarily shows the league that he is willing to be the butt of all jokes by getting his main man Yuni back on the squad. Here's how it happened: Grienke wants out, the Brewers want Grienke, Dayton forces them to take Yuni as part of the trade and offers $1 mil as a good faith gesture. Royals fans rejoice and Dayton looks smart. Now, fast forward to this offseason, the Royals need a utility infielder and here's why: Mike Aviles was slightly disgruntled last season and got traded to Boston for Yamico Navarro (a younger Aviles), BUT it turns out that Navarro doesn't mesh well with Frenchy and Dayton's good-guy clubhouse. Dayton ships him off for cash, then the Royals realize that Chris Getz is not a good fit for the back-up 3B/SS job. Next, they are rumored for weeks to be in on every has-been back-up infielder on the market. Enfin, Dayton shocks the world by signing the only one who no one expected and who is not actually a back-up infielder. Yes, the same one who one year ago Dayton had paid $1 mil for him NOT to be on his team. This is the logic of Dayton Moore. By completely mishandling Mile Aviles (the perfect back-up infielder) he winds up paying $2 mil (twice as much) for an inferior, historically less productive, infamously inept, and completely inexplicable option. I can't wait to write more about it, it's Royals blogging gold!
Step 7: Make a perfectly good signing of a lefty specialist. Tim Collins is not that guy. Jose Mijares is. He costs less than $1 mil. Ned Yost will make lots of trips to the mound and need Tommy John surgery on his left arm from calling for Mijares. He will have 81 appearances and pitch 30 innings. This is the second best offseason move, but there wasn't a lot of competition.
Step 8: Breaking news as Dayton's bargain shopping continues with the signing of Kevin Kouzmanoff. If he's only worth a minor league deal, how is Yuni worth $2mil???????????????????????????????????
Step 9: Sign Roy Oswalt, trade Hochevar.
Step 10: Wait for Prince Fielder's price to drop. Sign him, trade Hosmer and Wil Myers to Seattle for Felix Hernadez and win the AL Central for the next 5 years. Being a GM is so simple a blogger could do it.
Okay so the PBR filled in those last two Steps, but if Dayton does anything we can be sure that it is either going to be completely predictable or completely nonsensical. You know Kevin Kouzmanoff is not going to be the last of Dayton Moore this offseason. Will he resign Jose Guillen to platoon with Alex Gordon or will he resign Jason Kendall to be the be third string catcher? There is surely one more surprise left in Dayton before he heads off to Surprise, AZ.
Step 1: Make the safe but smart trade for possible rotation help. The Melky for Sanchez flip was classic Dayton. He rebuilt Melky's career, looked smart in doing so, and pounced on the opportunity to turn him into a big upside starting pitcher. This trade needs little review; it had to be done. You had to get rid of Cain or Cabrera this offseason or face the same consequence of letting one of the pieces of the Grienke deal rot away in AAA. This was a good use of Cabrera and now we get to find out what, if anything, we've got in Lorenzo Cain. We just have to keep our fingers crossed and hope Sanchez has another good season left in his left arm.
Step 2: Pretend you are willing to trade your young prospects for big name starting pitchers. Latos, Gonzalez and Cahill went for varying degrees of prospect hauls, and the Royals were rumored to be "interested" in all of them. However, Dayton and/or the Royals just aren't there yet. The Melky/Sanchez trade allowed Dayton to stand his ground and horde his prospects for a rainy day. I wanted to see the big trade, but maybe they're still a year away, who knows? The bottom line is that this surprised NO ONE!
Step 3: Take the most obvious route possible and re-sign BRUCE CHEN. It's hard for me to get worked up about this since I've been wrong on Chen for two consecutive years, and you have to agree with the consensus that he has the "good clubhouse guy" thing down. But at the very least this was unnecessary. Again, it's the safe play and there is very little chance of it backfiring, but Tim Tebow is more likely to be starting game two of a playoff series for the Royals than B Chen. On the flip side if he goes 10-10 and eats 200 innings this year, it's another win for Dayton.
Step 4: Take a flyer on a once great closer beaten down by arm injuries. On the face of it, signing Jonathan Broxton is just plain stupid. The Royals have plenty of bullpen arms. However, deep down it's really the same as signing Jeff Francouer or Melky Cabrera last year; if it works great, if not nobody is hurt.
Step 5: Take away from on the field issues by forcing out your TV announcer; a beloved franchise figure and community leader. Oh yeah, this was Fox Sports...of course Dayton had no part in it. Who knows what to believe in this story? Frank was most definitely not Vin Scully, but I might be listening to the radio broadcasts a lot more this season.
Step 6: Yuni Redux! Dayton proves to everyone that he is completely oblivious. He voluntarily shows the league that he is willing to be the butt of all jokes by getting his main man Yuni back on the squad. Here's how it happened: Grienke wants out, the Brewers want Grienke, Dayton forces them to take Yuni as part of the trade and offers $1 mil as a good faith gesture. Royals fans rejoice and Dayton looks smart. Now, fast forward to this offseason, the Royals need a utility infielder and here's why: Mike Aviles was slightly disgruntled last season and got traded to Boston for Yamico Navarro (a younger Aviles), BUT it turns out that Navarro doesn't mesh well with Frenchy and Dayton's good-guy clubhouse. Dayton ships him off for cash, then the Royals realize that Chris Getz is not a good fit for the back-up 3B/SS job. Next, they are rumored for weeks to be in on every has-been back-up infielder on the market. Enfin, Dayton shocks the world by signing the only one who no one expected and who is not actually a back-up infielder. Yes, the same one who one year ago Dayton had paid $1 mil for him NOT to be on his team. This is the logic of Dayton Moore. By completely mishandling Mile Aviles (the perfect back-up infielder) he winds up paying $2 mil (twice as much) for an inferior, historically less productive, infamously inept, and completely inexplicable option. I can't wait to write more about it, it's Royals blogging gold!
Step 7: Make a perfectly good signing of a lefty specialist. Tim Collins is not that guy. Jose Mijares is. He costs less than $1 mil. Ned Yost will make lots of trips to the mound and need Tommy John surgery on his left arm from calling for Mijares. He will have 81 appearances and pitch 30 innings. This is the second best offseason move, but there wasn't a lot of competition.
Step 8: Breaking news as Dayton's bargain shopping continues with the signing of Kevin Kouzmanoff. If he's only worth a minor league deal, how is Yuni worth $2mil???????????????????????????????????
Step 9: Sign Roy Oswalt, trade Hochevar.
Step 10: Wait for Prince Fielder's price to drop. Sign him, trade Hosmer and Wil Myers to Seattle for Felix Hernadez and win the AL Central for the next 5 years. Being a GM is so simple a blogger could do it.
Okay so the PBR filled in those last two Steps, but if Dayton does anything we can be sure that it is either going to be completely predictable or completely nonsensical. You know Kevin Kouzmanoff is not going to be the last of Dayton Moore this offseason. Will he resign Jose Guillen to platoon with Alex Gordon or will he resign Jason Kendall to be the be third string catcher? There is surely one more surprise left in Dayton before he heads off to Surprise, AZ.
Thursday, December 1, 2011
Recruiter Ned Yost
Win, loose or draw on the Jonathan Broxton trade, The Powder Blue Room would like to issue a small courtesy golf clap for Ned Yost in the spirit of resourcefulness. Everyone has probably heard the story about the hunting trip where Ned, Jeff Francoeur and he-haw funny guy Jeff Foxworthy sent the white tail dear of LaGrange, GA into survival mode. In short, it was a recruiting trip (hunting trip), set up by old Ned, who included his apparent friend Jeff Foxworthy.
Finally, something on the Yankees and Boston in the competitive advantage category. Baseball managers don't get to diagram plays or any of the PlayStation involvement of a football or basketball coach. American League managers don't even get to get involved in the game of double-switch. But Ned apparently got tired of the front office guys hogging all the joey-deal-making fun and set out to get in on the game himself.
But Kansas City has a manager pulling his weight, and quite frankly, we like to see it. The logistics of the signing will be covered in a later post and what effect the hunting trip had on the signing is intangible at best. If you saw the photo of Dayton standing next to Broxton at the press conference what is not intangible are the dimensions of this guy. Whoever built the dear-stand for Team Foxworthy back in LaGrange, probably had to run out and reinforce some of the stand's structural members prior to Mr. Broxton entering the premises. We have not yet received the tapes of the wire-taps we placed in the deer-stand, but we are sure the transcripts will show a highly cultured, literate and dignified set of words spoken amongst the trio. How many times Broxton told Jeff to "tell me a joke" will be part of a future Powder Blue Room poll, so stay tuned.
So kudos to Ned Yost, out there doing the hustle, making things shake where he can. Something tells us that Joe Torre never grabbed a dear rifle and Captain Derek to set out into the forest in hope of luring a player to the Bronx.
Finally, something on the Yankees and Boston in the competitive advantage category. Baseball managers don't get to diagram plays or any of the PlayStation involvement of a football or basketball coach. American League managers don't even get to get involved in the game of double-switch. But Ned apparently got tired of the front office guys hogging all the joey-deal-making fun and set out to get in on the game himself.
But Kansas City has a manager pulling his weight, and quite frankly, we like to see it. The logistics of the signing will be covered in a later post and what effect the hunting trip had on the signing is intangible at best. If you saw the photo of Dayton standing next to Broxton at the press conference what is not intangible are the dimensions of this guy. Whoever built the dear-stand for Team Foxworthy back in LaGrange, probably had to run out and reinforce some of the stand's structural members prior to Mr. Broxton entering the premises. We have not yet received the tapes of the wire-taps we placed in the deer-stand, but we are sure the transcripts will show a highly cultured, literate and dignified set of words spoken amongst the trio. How many times Broxton told Jeff to "tell me a joke" will be part of a future Powder Blue Room poll, so stay tuned.
So kudos to Ned Yost, out there doing the hustle, making things shake where he can. Something tells us that Joe Torre never grabbed a dear rifle and Captain Derek to set out into the forest in hope of luring a player to the Bronx.
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
Dayton ruins Royals' rumor season
After so much talk Dayton just couldn't help himself to a "high upside" starter right out of the gates. This just ruined the next few months of speculating about the Royals involvement in hundreds of trade scenarios throughout the offseason. There was so much potential for the Royals to be the darlings of rumor season with their search for an opening day starter and a wealth of prospects to deal. But in the end Dayton executed his patented Dayton Moore Strike Early Trade. I have to say that I'm a big fan of the trade just for record. However, it still doesn't mean I'm not disappointed that I can't talk about what I think the Royals should and shouldn't do for the next few months.
The fact that I wanted to see Lorenzo Cain starting in center field on opening day has now been realized and with the ancillary benefit of getting a good starter, albeit with a huge asterisk mark. Dayton Moore has loved to trade/sign to get the downtrodden player with upside since day one and this is probably his best yet. Moore struck fools gold with Melky and Frenchy last season and turned it into a starting pitcher and a starting right fielder for the next two years. But this latest move -- along with the assumption that they are mostly done for the offseason -- leads me to believe that Dayton is operating under the prospect hoarding, still one-year-away theory and I'm disappointed. When Dayton declared himself ready to trade prospects for a talented pitcher at the outset of the offseaon it triggered an initial flurry of rumors that had me imagining the Royals with a completely new starting rotation and real hope of contention. But after the dust has settled from this trade, it is still the same old Moore waiting for his beloved prospects to single handily lead charge for the AL Central crown. Melky for Sanchez is about the safest bet in trades Dayton could have made.
Moore's strategy is obviously working but the Royals are still fighting battles and not wars. Is having Jonathan Sanchez in the starting rotation along with Lorenzo Cain in CF going to make the Royals a winner? Not very likely. Would having that along with getting great seasons from Moustakas, Perez, Hosmer, Duffy AND Montgomery? Yes, that might be enough. I guess it is the smart play, but I'm still waiting to see if Moore has the ability to take a big risk. Trading Melky for Sanchez has almost no downside, re-signing Bruce Chen won't hurt you, giving Frenchy a two-year extension can't cripple you and waiting on minor league arms doesn't sink you, but it also doesn't provide you with the immediate satisfaction a long-time Royals fan needs.
I hope the waiting game works, but not dangling your top prospects for real solutions at starting pitcher would just be bad business. Cashing in on minor league talent is the best competitive advantage which the Royals currently have and you never know when the expiration date is on that currency. They are still a winning season away from being taken seriously by quality free agents, and the Jonathan Sanchez trade gets them closer to success if and only if every thing else goes well. It was a good trade, but only if you measure success in terms of baby steps. Dayton, one day you'll have to take big-boy steps. Are we there yet???
The fact that I wanted to see Lorenzo Cain starting in center field on opening day has now been realized and with the ancillary benefit of getting a good starter, albeit with a huge asterisk mark. Dayton Moore has loved to trade/sign to get the downtrodden player with upside since day one and this is probably his best yet. Moore struck fools gold with Melky and Frenchy last season and turned it into a starting pitcher and a starting right fielder for the next two years. But this latest move -- along with the assumption that they are mostly done for the offseason -- leads me to believe that Dayton is operating under the prospect hoarding, still one-year-away theory and I'm disappointed. When Dayton declared himself ready to trade prospects for a talented pitcher at the outset of the offseaon it triggered an initial flurry of rumors that had me imagining the Royals with a completely new starting rotation and real hope of contention. But after the dust has settled from this trade, it is still the same old Moore waiting for his beloved prospects to single handily lead charge for the AL Central crown. Melky for Sanchez is about the safest bet in trades Dayton could have made.
Moore's strategy is obviously working but the Royals are still fighting battles and not wars. Is having Jonathan Sanchez in the starting rotation along with Lorenzo Cain in CF going to make the Royals a winner? Not very likely. Would having that along with getting great seasons from Moustakas, Perez, Hosmer, Duffy AND Montgomery? Yes, that might be enough. I guess it is the smart play, but I'm still waiting to see if Moore has the ability to take a big risk. Trading Melky for Sanchez has almost no downside, re-signing Bruce Chen won't hurt you, giving Frenchy a two-year extension can't cripple you and waiting on minor league arms doesn't sink you, but it also doesn't provide you with the immediate satisfaction a long-time Royals fan needs.
I hope the waiting game works, but not dangling your top prospects for real solutions at starting pitcher would just be bad business. Cashing in on minor league talent is the best competitive advantage which the Royals currently have and you never know when the expiration date is on that currency. They are still a winning season away from being taken seriously by quality free agents, and the Jonathan Sanchez trade gets them closer to success if and only if every thing else goes well. It was a good trade, but only if you measure success in terms of baby steps. Dayton, one day you'll have to take big-boy steps. Are we there yet???
Monday, November 21, 2011
26 years and counting...
In case you just came back from a spiritual mission to India and missed the Royals season...they didn't make the playoffs. Yes, again. That makes 26 years, but who's counting? Actually, we here at the Powder Blue Room are counting. So what's the excuse this time? Given that this article is a month behind schedule, we'll keep it short, because you most likely already know the answer.
Pitching: Like the title of a certain Bob Seager song (not the one from the old Chevy truck ads) it was still the same. Except for the bullpen, except for Joakim Soria. Bruce Chen was still the same, but in a good way. Kyle Davies was still the same, but in a much much worse way. Felipe Paulino was a nice surprise, Jeff Francis was not. Luke Hochevar took some nice steps forward (mainly staying healthy), but they were taken way too late to be of much importance (next, year Hoch!). Teaford looked like he's worth a shot next year but on the other hand Vinny and O'Sullivan look like Omaha lifers. For all of the progress made in the set-up area of the bullpen Joakim had a very bad year and undeniably cost the team wins as the closer. Not to mention that Aaron Crow and Tim Collins really fizzled down the stretch. The two biggest question marks for next season might be if Joakim can reestablish himself as a dominant closer, and if Aaron Crow can transition into an average starter. This would be the best and most efficient way to improve both sides of the pitching without any external moves; and it appears that after the Sanchez trade the Royals are done making big moves in the rotation. As bad as the starting rotation was this year, if we come out of spring training with Sanchez #1, Paulino #2, Hochevar #3, Duffy #4 and Crow/Teaford/Montgomery #5, I'll take it (and so would most Royals fans, I think).
Offense: I have to say that this was actually fun to watch this year. The outfield just didn't stop all year. Seriously, who saw this one coming? Not I said the PBR. Okay one of the three outfielders finally living up to expectations I'd have bought that, two would have moved my skepticism needle into the red, but all three having career years was actually quite impressive/improbable/unbelievable/made-for-TV-movie worthy. Around the infield; Betemit was good and even better for Detroit. Moustakas was good (in September), Escobar was great (for two weeks), Getz doesn't exist to me, nor in any real offensive category. Eric Hosmer made me question my sexual orientation. The catchers weren't bad and then came Sal Perez who caught like Ivan Rodriguez and hit like Mike Piazza, in other words he's a keeper. I miss Mike Aviles, but I'll live. Johnny Giavotella looked great at times and also looked like someone who is 5'8'' trying to hit major league pitching at other times. The Royals 2012 million dollar question is can Lorenzo Cain hit? If the answer to that is yes and everything else stays the course, it should be another fun year watching the Royals hit lots of doubles at the K.
Defense: One step forward, two steps backward. If you just looked at shortstop range and outfield assists then you might come to the conclusion that it was the best ever. But unfortunately for the Royals, centerfielders in Kaufman have to cover a lot of ground. While Melky's offseason weight loss plan worked wonders at the plate, it didn't make him into Willie Mays with the glove. Throw in Alex and Frenchy, and the Royals had three above average corner outfielders trying to cover all three positions and it almost worked. However, the infield is where the real mystery unfolds. Obviously Escobar was great, but he makes up exactly 1/4th of the positions. At second base we had a defensive specialist who just wasn't that special (Getzie) and two offensive specialists that were especially bad with the glove (Giovatella and Aviles). All of that equals not good. At first we had the Golden Boy who looked like Mark Grace to me, but whose numbers looked more like Billy Butler (I'm just as surprised as you). Hosmer, worse than Ryan Howard, really? And third base was probably the biggest defensive black hole the team had; Wilson led the ineptitude, followed closely by Aviles and the jury is still out on Moutsakas (I think he looks terrible just for the record). Then at catcher the Royals pretty much tread water until the last month when Sir Sal came up to demonstrate just exactly how a real catcher is supposed to look behind the plate. If you're looking for 2012 prognostications, this is the easiest place to upgrade. By simply swapping Cain for Melky the Royals have already upgraded a lot. Getting a full season behind the plate from Perez should show up as well, even though it wasn't a black hole. And just by letting Hosmer's correction take effect this should also make them better. Second base isn't so easy, but Escobar can make up for one below average defender. At third, well...surprise me Moose (oh and don't forget to hit 30HRs!). I guess the real question here is do you believe the old football axiom "Defense wins Championships" or did you watch the St. Louis Cardinals hit their way to a World Series?
The Royals have a long way to go in 2012 but for once that distance can be made up without an unrealistic amount of help. The pieces are actually there for once, everything still has to go really well for the Royals, but It's not like believing in Ken Harvey and Jeremy Affelt, is it? I have to say that the odds of stopping the streak at 26 seasons without playoff baseball might be at an all time low in KC.
Pitching: Like the title of a certain Bob Seager song (not the one from the old Chevy truck ads) it was still the same. Except for the bullpen, except for Joakim Soria. Bruce Chen was still the same, but in a good way. Kyle Davies was still the same, but in a much much worse way. Felipe Paulino was a nice surprise, Jeff Francis was not. Luke Hochevar took some nice steps forward (mainly staying healthy), but they were taken way too late to be of much importance (next, year Hoch!). Teaford looked like he's worth a shot next year but on the other hand Vinny and O'Sullivan look like Omaha lifers. For all of the progress made in the set-up area of the bullpen Joakim had a very bad year and undeniably cost the team wins as the closer. Not to mention that Aaron Crow and Tim Collins really fizzled down the stretch. The two biggest question marks for next season might be if Joakim can reestablish himself as a dominant closer, and if Aaron Crow can transition into an average starter. This would be the best and most efficient way to improve both sides of the pitching without any external moves; and it appears that after the Sanchez trade the Royals are done making big moves in the rotation. As bad as the starting rotation was this year, if we come out of spring training with Sanchez #1, Paulino #2, Hochevar #3, Duffy #4 and Crow/Teaford/Montgomery #5, I'll take it (and so would most Royals fans, I think).
Offense: I have to say that this was actually fun to watch this year. The outfield just didn't stop all year. Seriously, who saw this one coming? Not I said the PBR. Okay one of the three outfielders finally living up to expectations I'd have bought that, two would have moved my skepticism needle into the red, but all three having career years was actually quite impressive/improbable/unbelievable/made-for-TV-movie worthy. Around the infield; Betemit was good and even better for Detroit. Moustakas was good (in September), Escobar was great (for two weeks), Getz doesn't exist to me, nor in any real offensive category. Eric Hosmer made me question my sexual orientation. The catchers weren't bad and then came Sal Perez who caught like Ivan Rodriguez and hit like Mike Piazza, in other words he's a keeper. I miss Mike Aviles, but I'll live. Johnny Giavotella looked great at times and also looked like someone who is 5'8'' trying to hit major league pitching at other times. The Royals 2012 million dollar question is can Lorenzo Cain hit? If the answer to that is yes and everything else stays the course, it should be another fun year watching the Royals hit lots of doubles at the K.
Defense: One step forward, two steps backward. If you just looked at shortstop range and outfield assists then you might come to the conclusion that it was the best ever. But unfortunately for the Royals, centerfielders in Kaufman have to cover a lot of ground. While Melky's offseason weight loss plan worked wonders at the plate, it didn't make him into Willie Mays with the glove. Throw in Alex and Frenchy, and the Royals had three above average corner outfielders trying to cover all three positions and it almost worked. However, the infield is where the real mystery unfolds. Obviously Escobar was great, but he makes up exactly 1/4th of the positions. At second base we had a defensive specialist who just wasn't that special (Getzie) and two offensive specialists that were especially bad with the glove (Giovatella and Aviles). All of that equals not good. At first we had the Golden Boy who looked like Mark Grace to me, but whose numbers looked more like Billy Butler (I'm just as surprised as you). Hosmer, worse than Ryan Howard, really? And third base was probably the biggest defensive black hole the team had; Wilson led the ineptitude, followed closely by Aviles and the jury is still out on Moutsakas (I think he looks terrible just for the record). Then at catcher the Royals pretty much tread water until the last month when Sir Sal came up to demonstrate just exactly how a real catcher is supposed to look behind the plate. If you're looking for 2012 prognostications, this is the easiest place to upgrade. By simply swapping Cain for Melky the Royals have already upgraded a lot. Getting a full season behind the plate from Perez should show up as well, even though it wasn't a black hole. And just by letting Hosmer's correction take effect this should also make them better. Second base isn't so easy, but Escobar can make up for one below average defender. At third, well...surprise me Moose (oh and don't forget to hit 30HRs!). I guess the real question here is do you believe the old football axiom "Defense wins Championships" or did you watch the St. Louis Cardinals hit their way to a World Series?
The Royals have a long way to go in 2012 but for once that distance can be made up without an unrealistic amount of help. The pieces are actually there for once, everything still has to go really well for the Royals, but It's not like believing in Ken Harvey and Jeremy Affelt, is it? I have to say that the odds of stopping the streak at 26 seasons without playoff baseball might be at an all time low in KC.
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