This is the week we've all been waiting for. We've been watching one of the worst teams in baseball for 100 games, but now that time and perseverance will pay off as we get to answer the 99 cent question: will Frenchy or Melky go? It's like waiting to see the final episode of season 3 of your favorite cable TV cop-doctor-lawyer drama; will they kill-off Billy or Jimmy? Are Brad and Amber going to get married? It is the Royals, so it's much more like the season finale of Law and Order SVU than the Sopranos, but we're Royals junkies so we take what we can get.
There are just certian things you have to do as a syndicated Google Kansas City Royals beat blogger, and one of those is come-up with a trade deadline special. Guessing the correct outcomes could win you that Pulitzer you've been working so hard for, and it will also provide material to get you through the next few weeks of another lost baseball season. We've all been waiting for one more opportunity to ridicule Dayton Moore, so now's the time. If you want an honest analysis of what types of trades the Royals debating look here, but the PBR doesn't analyze prospects and trading just one player having a decent season gets you five minutes on Baseball Toninght, followed by six years of Sean O'Sullivan.
In keeping with the PBR's gun-slinger tactics we're prepared to graduate from Dayton Moore to Brian Cashman status. The Royals actually have more prospects and more salary room than the New York Yankees, so why not act the part. Dayton's tenure has provided nothing more than 90-100 loss seasons and one brief shining moment as having assembled the best minor league talent pool in baseball. If there isn't a sense of urgency in Moore, then there should be. Prospects are not always like fine wine, most times in fact they spoil and make you wish you had traded them when they were worth something. The Royals have the chance to pull off a memorable season next year. The All Star game is coming to town (this will not happen again for another 40 years), Eric Hosmer is ready to be KC's Super Star, the team is young and ready to win, they just need a few more horses. The answer is to trade for whatever makes you better now, the Future be damed. Trade 2014 for 2012, please Dayton, I can't watch for another year like this one. My answer: get Ubaldo Jimenez AND Wandy Rodriguez. Don't mess around with just one, get them both. I completely acknowledge that there is a huge risk involved here, but 2012 would suddenly look very interesting. They are the two best starters out there and they'll both be arond for a couple of years, so how do you do it?
Part One, Ubaldo: This is the player that you waste all of your time developing to hope one day makes it to the majors and signs a team friendly contract. The Rockies want a King's Ransom, well give it to them. Four of our top 10 prospects, fine!!! Are you overpaying? Absolutely. But that's what you do when you make the here-and-now important. Hosmer, Duffy and Moustakas are off limits, everyone else is in play. My package would be either Montgomery OR Wil Myers, Luke Hochever (they can hope, I'm done), two more from the bottom end of our top 10 prospects and throw in a Blake Wood for icing. Would that get you Ubaldo? It might. Could it cost more? Probably. The point is not what it costs, but what it might net you in return. This is the type of pitcher everyone dreams about having to start game one of a play-off series. And since we have entered the mindset of Brian Cashman, we know that you only develop prospects for the sole purpose of trading to get the Ubaldo Jimenez-types of the world. The Royals assets are two-fold; an abundance of young talent and no long-term money commitments. The difference between another trade deadline which involves the Royals selling on the likes of Bruce Chen, and one in which we find the Royals looking for that extra piece to solidfy their playoff run, will be how they use these two assets.
Part Two, Wandy: Wandy is older, more expensive and has much less upside than Ubaldo. In addition, the Houston Astros are in a much, much less enviable situation and should expect returns accordingly. Sorry Houston, a 30 year-old AL #3 starter doesn't get you Ubaldo equivalent returns. That said, he has been a pretty dependable guy and you can have a #5-ish prospect and a couple more top-30 guys. That's it! Obviously, if you get Ubaldo you don't need Wandy, but the strategy is to go all-in and leave nothing to chance. This way you go into next year with a rotation that goes from Hochevar-Chen-Davies-Francis-O'Sullivan to the slightly more respectabe Ubaldo-Wandy-Felipe-Duffy-Anyone starting five. Not bad right, maybe #5 is Hochevar, maybe Mongomery, maybe Aaron Crow, but the much more important question is answered; YOU KNOW WHO YOUR #1 IS!!! This is the question which the Royals absolutely must answer if next season is going to look different than this one (and 25 others). Who cares who your #3-#5 pithcers are, in order to be a winner you have to know who your top-end is. And the Royals just don't know that right now. Sure you can dream on the likes of Duffy, Montgomery, Paulino, but with guys like Ubaldo and Wandy your dreams are less fantasy and more reality.
Emptying most of the top end of your farm system could be a huge mistake, but I think the reward is worth the risk in the case of the Royals. Pulling off one of these moves would be the talk of baseball and send a message to take note of the 2012 Royals throughout MLB. Trading for both would be insane, but my patience has run thin. I'm impressed with Hosmer, Duffy, not so much Moustakas - but I'm still optimistic. However, 2012 still holds too many contingencies for my liking and finding a true ACE via the trade market should be Dayton's biggest task. Flip a coin and throw darts over Frenchy and Melky and do the same for Francis and Chen. Kudos Dayton, you have done a fantasic job with getting milage out of seemingly washed up veterans, but all of the Frenchys, Melkys, Chens and Betemits will not, and have not, taken us even one step closer to becoming winners. Intelligent small market baseball dicates that you develop from within and follow the Tampa Bay blueprint, but at some point you have to cash in those chips and take a big step forward. That time is now.
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