Friday, July 15, 2011

How to Play Bubba Starling

At this point the Royals brass and general followers of the  Royals have holed up and tried to figure out how to squeeze some value out of the current roster in the trade market as the deadline approaches.  There is always "action available at the betting windows" (this is why you become a GM in the first place) and Dayton is going to come up with something which we can all write about after it occurs.  In reality, the return is likely to be mediocre at best.  The Royals' best trade equation is still addition by subtraction.

This being said, we believe the Royals should try and break the current practice of letting your first round draft pick sit around and eat Cheez-Its all summer while listening to Scott Boras approved self-esteem books on tape.  The Powder Blue Room has come up with a new unique strategy to accomplish two things.  One; get Bubba Starling in a minor league uniform and playing baseball.  Two; set a precedent for how to deal with high first round picks.

The understood forfeiture of a player's first year in the minors appears to be an underrated hindrance in most organizations.  The real reasons are due to gamesmanship or so Scott Boras can appear to earn his fee and all are a major setback in the development of a high school player, especially the toolsy, "athlete" type player.  By now the drill is pretty straight forward.  The two sides don't even bother talking until late July, where everyone threatens to go to college, go play for the Fort Worth Power Lug Nut Donkey Shoes and re-enter the draft next year, this that and the other before miraculously coming to an agreement right before the signing deadline in middle August.

As Rany on the Royals pointed out, Bubba is your new age "old" guy masquerading as a high school senior.  In order for a prospect like Bubba to have a shot at "developing" all the proposed talent he posses, he can't be darn near 20 years old before he plays his first minor league game.  The first season is important and it would be important in any sense, but the age of Starling makes it that much more important.  So important that we believe the Royals have a legitimate argument to say "Bubba,  your value goes considerably down if you don't get a full season in this year".

As a high school draftee, it is unlikely the Royals will have to cough up a major league contract to Bubba.  Scott Boras can hand out all the prepared charts and marketing three ring binders he wants.  He can give a two hundred slide power point presentation of Bubba Starling highlights with Eye of the Tiger playing as background music, but the bottom line is that it is going to take about $7 or $7.5 million to sign Bubba and get this experiment off the ground.

As the Royals' "Wartime Consigliere" here is how the Powder Blue Room suggests the Royals play it.  Back on June 7th, the first day after the draft, you walk in and say "Bubba, here is a contract for $7.5 million.  It is on the high side, but you sign that thing with-in two weeks, get in a uniform and it is yours".

Then you tell Bubba the following:  "Bubba, the rub here buddy is we don't think you are worth as much if you take this year off.  So for every two-weeks you don't sign we take $500,000 off the contract amount.  So if you want to go to Nebraska and try and be Tommy Frazier, go ahead, but we value the actual act of playing baseball and you are no spring chicken, so let's get to it".

Scott Boras is a smart guy and gets his fee based on the total amount of the contract.  He gives up getting to play super negotiator guy, but all in all he ends up with the same amount of money in his pocket.  The Royals potentially overpay a little, but they get a full minor league season out of Bubba and a much better probability he realizes his potential.

You put this in writing and send it to every media outlet and you hold a press conference stating the terms of the deal.  Then you stick to it on the following premise:  "You are not worth as much if you take the summer off, in our opinion.  We offered you big time money, and the only thing you didn't get to do is go through the negotiation dance.  Royals fans, don't be discouraged because if he sits the summer out, he was only worth what the reduced contract offer would be.  We are not being cheap, in fact we offered to overpay, but in order for these players to realize their potential they have to get started.  Surely you understand.".

In the end maybe Team Bubba gets all offended and heads off to Lincoln to get flattened by some freak of nature in costume as a defensive end at Ohio State in the fall.  Then in the spring it turns out Bubba isn't that good at baseball anyway and life goes on.

But you have to stick to it.  You put the money in escrow and make the terms public so everyone knows that it is about the service, not the money.  Spin this thing correctly and the Royals win.  Dayton, your Wartime Consigliere doesn't hand out on the record advise very often, but this one could turn you into something big time. 

This practice might become all the rage and become known as "The Moore Play".  Michael Lewis might write a book about you.  Highly paid corporate speaking gigs on negotiating are sure to follow along with offers to broker Middle East peace accords.  Perhaps you could start your own compensation consultancy.  Do it Dayton, our fee is on the house.

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