In a stirring announcement over the weekend, Dayton Moore admitted (indirectly) that the Powder Blue Room had it right and he should explore trading prospects for starting pitching. While we thank Dayton for his candor, we're still waiting for an official offer to become the new Assistant GM. All kidding aside, this is both good news and yet another possible indication that Dayton's timing will never be enough to get the Royals to the next level. Correct me if I'm wrong, but the Royals no longer have any top prospects that can fetch a #1 starting pitcher? Not to mention, I don't think there is a #1 or even a #2 on the trade market, again correct me if I'm wrong
Right about now is when most Royals fans start to talk about how good the Chiefs are going to be this year and forget all about the Royals (unless your buddy gets free tickets from someone at the office). However, if you're like me and feel that football in August is an abomination and actually wish the lockout would have lasted until after the World Series, then you've got some things on your mind. Namely, with the Tigers series starting today, what would make the difference between what the Royals are now (20+ games under .500) and this series being an important late season battle between the two division leaders? According to my calculations, it's actually not that much.
During the trade deadline I proposed three trades (see Ubaldo Jimenez & Wandy Rodriguez and Carlos Zambrano) which all look (admittedly) to be pretty misguided right now. And maybe they were and will be in the future, but I'm going to put forth a simple proposition which, in conjunction with a reasonable change in fortune, would put the Royals into contention this year for the division title. Here are the what iffs; if during the 2010 trade deadline the Royals had traded for Dan Haren and if Joakim was having a dominant year the Royals would have approximately a 12 win differential giving them a 67-67 record and within shouting distance of Detroit. It wouldn't give them the Phillies record, but all things being equal, I think we'd take it in KC. It is the AL Central after all.
So let's go back in time to last year's trade deadline...Dan Haren was a good pitcher having a bad year (4.6 ERA at time of trade) and Arizona was shedding payroll as fast as possible. The Royals had the best minor league farm system and presumably could have offered the best package to the D'Backs. They didn't (obviously) and the Angels did (obviously). Haren has been one of the best pitchers in the league and the Royals have trotted out one of the league's worst rotation day after day. My calculations assume that Haren would have replaced Sean O'Sullivan and Kyle Davies combined starts this year and made about a 6 win difference (thanks B-Ref WAR). Based on the return Arizona Received the Royals probably could have gotten him for Mike Montgomery plus one or two other prospects.Who knows what it really would have taken from the Royals, but the D'Backs ended up with Joe Saunders and one top 100 prospect. So really any two of the Royals top pitching prospects should have gotten the job done.
The next 6 wins come from Jokiam Soria only blowing one save, this would be a dominant year, but certainly not impossible. Also, according to the numbers (thanks again B-Ref), the Royals have been a bit unlucky this year so Jokiam is really just a scape goat for luck. This again goes to question Dayton's sense of timing since Joakim has gone from big trading chip to borderline closer in just one year. We all hope Joakim bounces back next year, but if he doesn't it will be anther check mark against the ability for Dayton to pull the trigger at the right time. All of that aside, this change isn't earth shattering and can easily be expected to occur next year.
As we all know, the Royals highly touted left handed pitching prospects have all failed across the board this year. If your biggest success is that one actually made it to the majors and has been healthy, then I guess Duffy is a success. However, none have helped the Royals this year and the odds of them helping next year are pure speculation at best. Now what the Royals have are a bunch of "former top prospects" that might not get you the Dan Harens of the trade market. I'm sure the Royals still have a big package which will get you close or put you in contention with other teams, but last year the Royals had the types of prospects to go out and get anyone. This year I'm not sure that's true.
Admittedly, last year was probably not the time for a big move and the Royals have had some bad luck when it comes to starting pitching prospects. But in the end, all of the improvement this year has really come from unexpected seasons by Frenchy, Melky and Gordon. If we can assume that our offense can only improve from this year (Hosmer and Moose, I'm looking at you) then the Royals are still closer than they have been a long time.
If being an MLB GM is also a game of invisible inches then Dayton could make a big move in the offseason and provide the Royals exactly what they need. But I wonder if he has already missed the boat?
Monday, August 29, 2011
Thursday, August 18, 2011
All Aboard the Dayton Train!
If it wasn't obvious to everyone before, it should be painfully clear now that this is Dayton's team. First it was the full-steam-a head bullpen youth movement. Next, it was white-hot Eric Hosmer over struggling Kila; which has seemed to work out for everyone except Kila. Then it was Moustakas over Betemit; hopefully it works next year but this year it has only helped the Detroit Tigers and made KC even worse. Then it was Getz over Aviles, who was subsequently recalled and then banished for speaking out against the regime. Then Dayton got serious and called-up Giovatella to replace Getz, Kyle Davies (drunkenly) fell from even Dayton's good grace, and now Dayton's prized rookie catcher has taken over the backstop for good (Pena never could get a chance with the Royals).
And if that wasn't clear enough for you, the final piece to his puzzle has been completed with the two year extension given to his love child, Jeff Francouer. For all of the obvious ways we could choose to make fun of this signing, let's first give Dayton his due credit for this and the Melky signing. It worked out, it could have gone differently but somehow both of these guys are having very good years and Dayton looks like a smart guy. On the other hand, I'm not going to sit here call Moore a genius. He signed two guys that no other team wanted because they were cheap and it still may be true that he has a CF in Omaha who's better than both of them. Who knows?
We're now all just along for the ride while Dayton conducts what will be our KC Royals for the near future. The way I see it two things will determine the success of the Dayton Moore led effort to resurrect the fortunes of the Royals...
The Youth
This might be overstating the obvious, but it is the young players who determine determine the fate of the team. Now that they have their spirited leader Frenchy inked for two more years, Dayton has placed his on the field mouth piece to lead for better or worse. In reality, what will be more important is whether Hosmer or Moustakas really become superstars. By superstar I don't mean Gordon/Melky/Frenchy-type bounce back years. I mean Fielder/Braun/Upton/Cabrera/Votto-like dominant years. It's all on Hosmer's shoulders now, but hopefully Moose still has it in him. There still isn't a great hitter on the team, there are several good ones, but finding someone who can really scare opposing pitchers is what gets a team to the next level. Dayton has done his best to sign and pay for young talent and he now has what he's spent the last few years paying for ready to go. We'll know much more at this time next year, but despite all of the small victories and signs of improvement, Hosmer and Moose have made us no better than Tehan and Buck and Duffy and Crow have not improved us from the likes of Gobble and MacDougal. So there is still a lot of work to do.
Timing
Timing does play a huge factor in youth development, but that's not what I'm referring to here; prospects will bust and get hurt, that's just how it goes. However, Dayton still hasn't shown the ability to have success making a big move, and at some point he's going to have to make trades and signings which make the Royals good in the present tense. Sure Bubba Starling might be awesome in 5 years, but the Royals are 21 games under .500 RIGHT NOW. Is signing Jeff Francouer for two more years going to change that? Did signing Melky this year change it? Don't answer. Has the Greinke trade helped the team? As it stands right now, the Royals got a big upgrade on Yuni's defense and they got one of the best pitchers in baseball. How well did Jason Kendall work out everyone? Dido on Jose Guillen. Yes, we all love the signings of Melky and Paulino, Frenchy and Chen, but there will come a time when that's just not big enough.
So everyone kick back and watch as Dayton's Reign begins.
And if that wasn't clear enough for you, the final piece to his puzzle has been completed with the two year extension given to his love child, Jeff Francouer. For all of the obvious ways we could choose to make fun of this signing, let's first give Dayton his due credit for this and the Melky signing. It worked out, it could have gone differently but somehow both of these guys are having very good years and Dayton looks like a smart guy. On the other hand, I'm not going to sit here call Moore a genius. He signed two guys that no other team wanted because they were cheap and it still may be true that he has a CF in Omaha who's better than both of them. Who knows?
We're now all just along for the ride while Dayton conducts what will be our KC Royals for the near future. The way I see it two things will determine the success of the Dayton Moore led effort to resurrect the fortunes of the Royals...
The Youth
This might be overstating the obvious, but it is the young players who determine determine the fate of the team. Now that they have their spirited leader Frenchy inked for two more years, Dayton has placed his on the field mouth piece to lead for better or worse. In reality, what will be more important is whether Hosmer or Moustakas really become superstars. By superstar I don't mean Gordon/Melky/Frenchy-type bounce back years. I mean Fielder/Braun/Upton/Cabrera/Votto-like dominant years. It's all on Hosmer's shoulders now, but hopefully Moose still has it in him. There still isn't a great hitter on the team, there are several good ones, but finding someone who can really scare opposing pitchers is what gets a team to the next level. Dayton has done his best to sign and pay for young talent and he now has what he's spent the last few years paying for ready to go. We'll know much more at this time next year, but despite all of the small victories and signs of improvement, Hosmer and Moose have made us no better than Tehan and Buck and Duffy and Crow have not improved us from the likes of Gobble and MacDougal. So there is still a lot of work to do.
Timing
Timing does play a huge factor in youth development, but that's not what I'm referring to here; prospects will bust and get hurt, that's just how it goes. However, Dayton still hasn't shown the ability to have success making a big move, and at some point he's going to have to make trades and signings which make the Royals good in the present tense. Sure Bubba Starling might be awesome in 5 years, but the Royals are 21 games under .500 RIGHT NOW. Is signing Jeff Francouer for two more years going to change that? Did signing Melky this year change it? Don't answer. Has the Greinke trade helped the team? As it stands right now, the Royals got a big upgrade on Yuni's defense and they got one of the best pitchers in baseball. How well did Jason Kendall work out everyone? Dido on Jose Guillen. Yes, we all love the signings of Melky and Paulino, Frenchy and Chen, but there will come a time when that's just not big enough.
So everyone kick back and watch as Dayton's Reign begins.
Tuesday, August 2, 2011
Obligatory Post Trade Deadline Wrap
Blockbusters up and down and the Royals stuck in the middle holding on to Melky, Frenchy, Francis and Chen. Apparently, the Cleveland Indians listened to the Powder Blue Room, but the Royals barely made a squeak in the trade market. The Royals essentially dumped two players taking up space on their bench for players who aren't contractually required to take-up space on the bench. So what happened to Dayton and his patented trade deadline specials? I think he got a little too big for his britches. Given that there was absolutely no need to trade anyone for payroll reasons, I think Dayton tried to play hardball and got what he should have expected. Now we have to wait and see if it was a case overvaluing players or rightfully balking at the paltry returns offered for the likes of Melky and Frenchy. The hardest part is that we really don't know, while MLB Trade Rumors does a fantastic job of making us think we know. In the end we have no idea of what, who, when and if any offers came for the Royals' players, still that doesn't stop us from pretending we know more than our GM...
Melky
Dayton's Price: I want a high upside MLB ready starting pitcher.
The Rest of the League's Response: Yes Dayton, everyone would love to turn a million dollar gamble and half a season from a slightly above average CF into a starting pitcher, but what you really get is Vin Mazarro or someone who throws 100 MPH, but has more walks than strike-outs pitching down in AA.
The Reality: Dayton probably played this one well, there was just simply no reason give away Melky for anything less than real talent. He's cheap, under team control and if he continues to play like this will be worth as much during the offseason or at next year's trade deadline. Also, I'm guessing that no one in the league really bought the whole "Melky finally figured it out" storyline and decided the better options of Beltran, Pence, Bourn, Upton, Rasmus et al, were more worth the prospect price tag. It actually was a pretty loaded outfield market and Melky was about 7th best on that list, so let him continue to build value for a future trade or maybe he helps you make a playoff run next year? No harm done having Melky around for a while longer.
Frenchy
Dayton's Price tag: See Melky Cabrera and double it.
The Rest of the League's Response: Very funny Dayton, do you realize that I'm going to use him only as a platoon outfielder to hit against soft-tossing lefties. No really Dayton, he's not an everyday player. Dayton everyone in the league passed on him except for you. Are you serious, our #1 pitching prospect for him, this conversation is over.
The Reality: Any other GM in baseball in the Royals situation would have traded Frenchy for a AA lefty bullpen arm, moved Melky to RF and immediately called up Lorenzo Cain. But this is the love affair that is Dayton Moore & Jeff Francouer. I'm willing to admit that he has played pretty well this year, much better than anyone expected, and I love watching him throw people out at the plate, but the thought of negotiating a 2+ year deal with him at the end of the year is just scary. Or even worse, the thought of watching him hit .180 in September while Cain rides the bench or stays in AAA and then execising his mutual option. The only way I like this is if you're a really cunning GM who wants to preserve Cain's value and include him in a big blockbuster deal this offseason for a starting pitcher because you know the Frenchy/Melky combo is more reliable and only costs a few mil. But I don't see that coming from Dayton and Frenchy has created an unnecessary bottleneck and if he continues to play well will simply be too expensive at the end of the year, but if he plays poorly will also be too expensive. I just don't see how the Royals come out on top with this situation.
Jeff Francis
Dayton's Price: A toolsy 2B in AA plus another bullpen arm.
The Rest of the League's Response: Again, Dayton we like the signing, we all give you props for getting Francis this offseason on the cheap, but what exactly is your leverage here? If we don't give you our best young infield prospect, you'll keep him and maybe not loose 100 games? Take our 7th best outfield prospect in low A ball and move on with life.
The Reality: There might never have been a real Jeff Francis Market. I'd like to believe that if you can trade Jason Marquis and Doug F-ing Fister for something then Francis is worth a prospect, but other teams also might not have been buying the "Jeff Francis difference maker" storyline. The truth is that the chances of Jeff Francis being more help than your best AAA pitcher are very slim. The problem here is the same as Jeff Francouer; if he pitches well you might win a few more games in September, but he'll cost too much to re-sign and if sucks it up or gets hurt, you could have gotten the same from Mazarro or O'Sullivan and had the prospect and a few 100K to boot. I think what happened is that Francis' last good start came too late, he needed two or three really good starts right before the deadline in order to sucker any team into giving up a prospect, but that didn't happen and there never was much on the table for Francis.
Bruce Chen
Dayton's Price: Same as Francis plus some icing.
The Rest of the League's Response: Dayton did you see his last start vs. Boston 4 IP, 10 ER, nuff said. Brian Cashman continually forwarded the box score to Dayton via text message until he stopped calling.
The Reality: Contrary to the Jeff Francis situation, Chen's implosion in Boston came just in time for any potential suitors to see this and pull all offers off the table and move on to the next veteran lefty. His 3.3 ERA looked great and then came the Boston game, after which his 4.3 ERA didn't look so good. You can never be sure, but if I were about to take a prospect gamble on Bruce Chen and then saw that game, I would immediately delete Dayton from my speed dial. Dayton probably didn't adjust his price on Chen post Boston Massacre and surprisingly (only so to Dayton) no teams called on Chen's availability.
The best thing to come from this trade deadline is that Mike Aviles found a good home and no longer has to watch Chris Getz hit four infield/bunt singles per week while he and Mitch play five-card-draw waiting to pinch run for Billy Butler in the 9th. Other than that, nothing happened. It may play out to be a shrewed move when Dayton trades Lorenzo Cain back to Milwaukee for Zack Greinke and Melky and Frenchy get even better next year. But it could also turn out to be a complete waste of time as Frenchy signs with Philly in the offseason for more money, or Melky decides to go back to eating roasted chickens two at a time, Chen and Francis move on and the books are closed on those players. We'll just have to wait and see.
Melky
Dayton's Price: I want a high upside MLB ready starting pitcher.
The Rest of the League's Response: Yes Dayton, everyone would love to turn a million dollar gamble and half a season from a slightly above average CF into a starting pitcher, but what you really get is Vin Mazarro or someone who throws 100 MPH, but has more walks than strike-outs pitching down in AA.
The Reality: Dayton probably played this one well, there was just simply no reason give away Melky for anything less than real talent. He's cheap, under team control and if he continues to play like this will be worth as much during the offseason or at next year's trade deadline. Also, I'm guessing that no one in the league really bought the whole "Melky finally figured it out" storyline and decided the better options of Beltran, Pence, Bourn, Upton, Rasmus et al, were more worth the prospect price tag. It actually was a pretty loaded outfield market and Melky was about 7th best on that list, so let him continue to build value for a future trade or maybe he helps you make a playoff run next year? No harm done having Melky around for a while longer.
Frenchy
Dayton's Price tag: See Melky Cabrera and double it.
The Rest of the League's Response: Very funny Dayton, do you realize that I'm going to use him only as a platoon outfielder to hit against soft-tossing lefties. No really Dayton, he's not an everyday player. Dayton everyone in the league passed on him except for you. Are you serious, our #1 pitching prospect for him, this conversation is over.
The Reality: Any other GM in baseball in the Royals situation would have traded Frenchy for a AA lefty bullpen arm, moved Melky to RF and immediately called up Lorenzo Cain. But this is the love affair that is Dayton Moore & Jeff Francouer. I'm willing to admit that he has played pretty well this year, much better than anyone expected, and I love watching him throw people out at the plate, but the thought of negotiating a 2+ year deal with him at the end of the year is just scary. Or even worse, the thought of watching him hit .180 in September while Cain rides the bench or stays in AAA and then execising his mutual option. The only way I like this is if you're a really cunning GM who wants to preserve Cain's value and include him in a big blockbuster deal this offseason for a starting pitcher because you know the Frenchy/Melky combo is more reliable and only costs a few mil. But I don't see that coming from Dayton and Frenchy has created an unnecessary bottleneck and if he continues to play well will simply be too expensive at the end of the year, but if he plays poorly will also be too expensive. I just don't see how the Royals come out on top with this situation.
Jeff Francis
Dayton's Price: A toolsy 2B in AA plus another bullpen arm.
The Rest of the League's Response: Again, Dayton we like the signing, we all give you props for getting Francis this offseason on the cheap, but what exactly is your leverage here? If we don't give you our best young infield prospect, you'll keep him and maybe not loose 100 games? Take our 7th best outfield prospect in low A ball and move on with life.
The Reality: There might never have been a real Jeff Francis Market. I'd like to believe that if you can trade Jason Marquis and Doug F-ing Fister for something then Francis is worth a prospect, but other teams also might not have been buying the "Jeff Francis difference maker" storyline. The truth is that the chances of Jeff Francis being more help than your best AAA pitcher are very slim. The problem here is the same as Jeff Francouer; if he pitches well you might win a few more games in September, but he'll cost too much to re-sign and if sucks it up or gets hurt, you could have gotten the same from Mazarro or O'Sullivan and had the prospect and a few 100K to boot. I think what happened is that Francis' last good start came too late, he needed two or three really good starts right before the deadline in order to sucker any team into giving up a prospect, but that didn't happen and there never was much on the table for Francis.
Bruce Chen
Dayton's Price: Same as Francis plus some icing.
The Rest of the League's Response: Dayton did you see his last start vs. Boston 4 IP, 10 ER, nuff said. Brian Cashman continually forwarded the box score to Dayton via text message until he stopped calling.
The Reality: Contrary to the Jeff Francis situation, Chen's implosion in Boston came just in time for any potential suitors to see this and pull all offers off the table and move on to the next veteran lefty. His 3.3 ERA looked great and then came the Boston game, after which his 4.3 ERA didn't look so good. You can never be sure, but if I were about to take a prospect gamble on Bruce Chen and then saw that game, I would immediately delete Dayton from my speed dial. Dayton probably didn't adjust his price on Chen post Boston Massacre and surprisingly (only so to Dayton) no teams called on Chen's availability.
The best thing to come from this trade deadline is that Mike Aviles found a good home and no longer has to watch Chris Getz hit four infield/bunt singles per week while he and Mitch play five-card-draw waiting to pinch run for Billy Butler in the 9th. Other than that, nothing happened. It may play out to be a shrewed move when Dayton trades Lorenzo Cain back to Milwaukee for Zack Greinke and Melky and Frenchy get even better next year. But it could also turn out to be a complete waste of time as Frenchy signs with Philly in the offseason for more money, or Melky decides to go back to eating roasted chickens two at a time, Chen and Francis move on and the books are closed on those players. We'll just have to wait and see.
Monday, July 25, 2011
Obligatory Trade Deadline Special
This is the week we've all been waiting for. We've been watching one of the worst teams in baseball for 100 games, but now that time and perseverance will pay off as we get to answer the 99 cent question: will Frenchy or Melky go? It's like waiting to see the final episode of season 3 of your favorite cable TV cop-doctor-lawyer drama; will they kill-off Billy or Jimmy? Are Brad and Amber going to get married? It is the Royals, so it's much more like the season finale of Law and Order SVU than the Sopranos, but we're Royals junkies so we take what we can get.
There are just certian things you have to do as a syndicated Google Kansas City Royals beat blogger, and one of those is come-up with a trade deadline special. Guessing the correct outcomes could win you that Pulitzer you've been working so hard for, and it will also provide material to get you through the next few weeks of another lost baseball season. We've all been waiting for one more opportunity to ridicule Dayton Moore, so now's the time. If you want an honest analysis of what types of trades the Royals debating look here, but the PBR doesn't analyze prospects and trading just one player having a decent season gets you five minutes on Baseball Toninght, followed by six years of Sean O'Sullivan.
In keeping with the PBR's gun-slinger tactics we're prepared to graduate from Dayton Moore to Brian Cashman status. The Royals actually have more prospects and more salary room than the New York Yankees, so why not act the part. Dayton's tenure has provided nothing more than 90-100 loss seasons and one brief shining moment as having assembled the best minor league talent pool in baseball. If there isn't a sense of urgency in Moore, then there should be. Prospects are not always like fine wine, most times in fact they spoil and make you wish you had traded them when they were worth something. The Royals have the chance to pull off a memorable season next year. The All Star game is coming to town (this will not happen again for another 40 years), Eric Hosmer is ready to be KC's Super Star, the team is young and ready to win, they just need a few more horses. The answer is to trade for whatever makes you better now, the Future be damed. Trade 2014 for 2012, please Dayton, I can't watch for another year like this one. My answer: get Ubaldo Jimenez AND Wandy Rodriguez. Don't mess around with just one, get them both. I completely acknowledge that there is a huge risk involved here, but 2012 would suddenly look very interesting. They are the two best starters out there and they'll both be arond for a couple of years, so how do you do it?
Part One, Ubaldo: This is the player that you waste all of your time developing to hope one day makes it to the majors and signs a team friendly contract. The Rockies want a King's Ransom, well give it to them. Four of our top 10 prospects, fine!!! Are you overpaying? Absolutely. But that's what you do when you make the here-and-now important. Hosmer, Duffy and Moustakas are off limits, everyone else is in play. My package would be either Montgomery OR Wil Myers, Luke Hochever (they can hope, I'm done), two more from the bottom end of our top 10 prospects and throw in a Blake Wood for icing. Would that get you Ubaldo? It might. Could it cost more? Probably. The point is not what it costs, but what it might net you in return. This is the type of pitcher everyone dreams about having to start game one of a play-off series. And since we have entered the mindset of Brian Cashman, we know that you only develop prospects for the sole purpose of trading to get the Ubaldo Jimenez-types of the world. The Royals assets are two-fold; an abundance of young talent and no long-term money commitments. The difference between another trade deadline which involves the Royals selling on the likes of Bruce Chen, and one in which we find the Royals looking for that extra piece to solidfy their playoff run, will be how they use these two assets.
Part Two, Wandy: Wandy is older, more expensive and has much less upside than Ubaldo. In addition, the Houston Astros are in a much, much less enviable situation and should expect returns accordingly. Sorry Houston, a 30 year-old AL #3 starter doesn't get you Ubaldo equivalent returns. That said, he has been a pretty dependable guy and you can have a #5-ish prospect and a couple more top-30 guys. That's it! Obviously, if you get Ubaldo you don't need Wandy, but the strategy is to go all-in and leave nothing to chance. This way you go into next year with a rotation that goes from Hochevar-Chen-Davies-Francis-O'Sullivan to the slightly more respectabe Ubaldo-Wandy-Felipe-Duffy-Anyone starting five. Not bad right, maybe #5 is Hochevar, maybe Mongomery, maybe Aaron Crow, but the much more important question is answered; YOU KNOW WHO YOUR #1 IS!!! This is the question which the Royals absolutely must answer if next season is going to look different than this one (and 25 others). Who cares who your #3-#5 pithcers are, in order to be a winner you have to know who your top-end is. And the Royals just don't know that right now. Sure you can dream on the likes of Duffy, Montgomery, Paulino, but with guys like Ubaldo and Wandy your dreams are less fantasy and more reality.
Emptying most of the top end of your farm system could be a huge mistake, but I think the reward is worth the risk in the case of the Royals. Pulling off one of these moves would be the talk of baseball and send a message to take note of the 2012 Royals throughout MLB. Trading for both would be insane, but my patience has run thin. I'm impressed with Hosmer, Duffy, not so much Moustakas - but I'm still optimistic. However, 2012 still holds too many contingencies for my liking and finding a true ACE via the trade market should be Dayton's biggest task. Flip a coin and throw darts over Frenchy and Melky and do the same for Francis and Chen. Kudos Dayton, you have done a fantasic job with getting milage out of seemingly washed up veterans, but all of the Frenchys, Melkys, Chens and Betemits will not, and have not, taken us even one step closer to becoming winners. Intelligent small market baseball dicates that you develop from within and follow the Tampa Bay blueprint, but at some point you have to cash in those chips and take a big step forward. That time is now.
There are just certian things you have to do as a syndicated Google Kansas City Royals beat blogger, and one of those is come-up with a trade deadline special. Guessing the correct outcomes could win you that Pulitzer you've been working so hard for, and it will also provide material to get you through the next few weeks of another lost baseball season. We've all been waiting for one more opportunity to ridicule Dayton Moore, so now's the time. If you want an honest analysis of what types of trades the Royals debating look here, but the PBR doesn't analyze prospects and trading just one player having a decent season gets you five minutes on Baseball Toninght, followed by six years of Sean O'Sullivan.
In keeping with the PBR's gun-slinger tactics we're prepared to graduate from Dayton Moore to Brian Cashman status. The Royals actually have more prospects and more salary room than the New York Yankees, so why not act the part. Dayton's tenure has provided nothing more than 90-100 loss seasons and one brief shining moment as having assembled the best minor league talent pool in baseball. If there isn't a sense of urgency in Moore, then there should be. Prospects are not always like fine wine, most times in fact they spoil and make you wish you had traded them when they were worth something. The Royals have the chance to pull off a memorable season next year. The All Star game is coming to town (this will not happen again for another 40 years), Eric Hosmer is ready to be KC's Super Star, the team is young and ready to win, they just need a few more horses. The answer is to trade for whatever makes you better now, the Future be damed. Trade 2014 for 2012, please Dayton, I can't watch for another year like this one. My answer: get Ubaldo Jimenez AND Wandy Rodriguez. Don't mess around with just one, get them both. I completely acknowledge that there is a huge risk involved here, but 2012 would suddenly look very interesting. They are the two best starters out there and they'll both be arond for a couple of years, so how do you do it?
Part One, Ubaldo: This is the player that you waste all of your time developing to hope one day makes it to the majors and signs a team friendly contract. The Rockies want a King's Ransom, well give it to them. Four of our top 10 prospects, fine!!! Are you overpaying? Absolutely. But that's what you do when you make the here-and-now important. Hosmer, Duffy and Moustakas are off limits, everyone else is in play. My package would be either Montgomery OR Wil Myers, Luke Hochever (they can hope, I'm done), two more from the bottom end of our top 10 prospects and throw in a Blake Wood for icing. Would that get you Ubaldo? It might. Could it cost more? Probably. The point is not what it costs, but what it might net you in return. This is the type of pitcher everyone dreams about having to start game one of a play-off series. And since we have entered the mindset of Brian Cashman, we know that you only develop prospects for the sole purpose of trading to get the Ubaldo Jimenez-types of the world. The Royals assets are two-fold; an abundance of young talent and no long-term money commitments. The difference between another trade deadline which involves the Royals selling on the likes of Bruce Chen, and one in which we find the Royals looking for that extra piece to solidfy their playoff run, will be how they use these two assets.
Part Two, Wandy: Wandy is older, more expensive and has much less upside than Ubaldo. In addition, the Houston Astros are in a much, much less enviable situation and should expect returns accordingly. Sorry Houston, a 30 year-old AL #3 starter doesn't get you Ubaldo equivalent returns. That said, he has been a pretty dependable guy and you can have a #5-ish prospect and a couple more top-30 guys. That's it! Obviously, if you get Ubaldo you don't need Wandy, but the strategy is to go all-in and leave nothing to chance. This way you go into next year with a rotation that goes from Hochevar-Chen-Davies-Francis-O'Sullivan to the slightly more respectabe Ubaldo-Wandy-Felipe-Duffy-Anyone starting five. Not bad right, maybe #5 is Hochevar, maybe Mongomery, maybe Aaron Crow, but the much more important question is answered; YOU KNOW WHO YOUR #1 IS!!! This is the question which the Royals absolutely must answer if next season is going to look different than this one (and 25 others). Who cares who your #3-#5 pithcers are, in order to be a winner you have to know who your top-end is. And the Royals just don't know that right now. Sure you can dream on the likes of Duffy, Montgomery, Paulino, but with guys like Ubaldo and Wandy your dreams are less fantasy and more reality.
Emptying most of the top end of your farm system could be a huge mistake, but I think the reward is worth the risk in the case of the Royals. Pulling off one of these moves would be the talk of baseball and send a message to take note of the 2012 Royals throughout MLB. Trading for both would be insane, but my patience has run thin. I'm impressed with Hosmer, Duffy, not so much Moustakas - but I'm still optimistic. However, 2012 still holds too many contingencies for my liking and finding a true ACE via the trade market should be Dayton's biggest task. Flip a coin and throw darts over Frenchy and Melky and do the same for Francis and Chen. Kudos Dayton, you have done a fantasic job with getting milage out of seemingly washed up veterans, but all of the Frenchys, Melkys, Chens and Betemits will not, and have not, taken us even one step closer to becoming winners. Intelligent small market baseball dicates that you develop from within and follow the Tampa Bay blueprint, but at some point you have to cash in those chips and take a big step forward. That time is now.
Friday, July 15, 2011
How to Play Bubba Starling
At this point the Royals brass and general followers of the Royals have holed up and tried to figure out how to squeeze some value out of the current roster in the trade market as the deadline approaches. There is always "action available at the betting windows" (this is why you become a GM in the first place) and Dayton is going to come up with something which we can all write about after it occurs. In reality, the return is likely to be mediocre at best. The Royals' best trade equation is still addition by subtraction.
This being said, we believe the Royals should try and break the current practice of letting your first round draft pick sit around and eat Cheez-Its all summer while listening to Scott Boras approved self-esteem books on tape. The Powder Blue Room has come up with a new unique strategy to accomplish two things. One; get Bubba Starling in a minor league uniform and playing baseball. Two; set a precedent for how to deal with high first round picks.
The understood forfeiture of a player's first year in the minors appears to be an underrated hindrance in most organizations. The real reasons are due to gamesmanship or so Scott Boras can appear to earn his fee and all are a major setback in the development of a high school player, especially the toolsy, "athlete" type player. By now the drill is pretty straight forward. The two sides don't even bother talking until late July, where everyone threatens to go to college, go play for the Fort Worth Power Lug Nut Donkey Shoes and re-enter the draft next year, this that and the other before miraculously coming to an agreement right before the signing deadline in middle August.
As Rany on the Royals pointed out, Bubba is your new age "old" guy masquerading as a high school senior. In order for a prospect like Bubba to have a shot at "developing" all the proposed talent he posses, he can't be darn near 20 years old before he plays his first minor league game. The first season is important and it would be important in any sense, but the age of Starling makes it that much more important. So important that we believe the Royals have a legitimate argument to say "Bubba, your value goes considerably down if you don't get a full season in this year".
As a high school draftee, it is unlikely the Royals will have to cough up a major league contract to Bubba. Scott Boras can hand out all the prepared charts and marketing three ring binders he wants. He can give a two hundred slide power point presentation of Bubba Starling highlights with Eye of the Tiger playing as background music, but the bottom line is that it is going to take about $7 or $7.5 million to sign Bubba and get this experiment off the ground.
As the Royals' "Wartime Consigliere" here is how the Powder Blue Room suggests the Royals play it. Back on June 7th, the first day after the draft, you walk in and say "Bubba, here is a contract for $7.5 million. It is on the high side, but you sign that thing with-in two weeks, get in a uniform and it is yours".
Then you tell Bubba the following: "Bubba, the rub here buddy is we don't think you are worth as much if you take this year off. So for every two-weeks you don't sign we take $500,000 off the contract amount. So if you want to go to Nebraska and try and be Tommy Frazier, go ahead, but we value the actual act of playing baseball and you are no spring chicken, so let's get to it".
Scott Boras is a smart guy and gets his fee based on the total amount of the contract. He gives up getting to play super negotiator guy, but all in all he ends up with the same amount of money in his pocket. The Royals potentially overpay a little, but they get a full minor league season out of Bubba and a much better probability he realizes his potential.
You put this in writing and send it to every media outlet and you hold a press conference stating the terms of the deal. Then you stick to it on the following premise: "You are not worth as much if you take the summer off, in our opinion. We offered you big time money, and the only thing you didn't get to do is go through the negotiation dance. Royals fans, don't be discouraged because if he sits the summer out, he was only worth what the reduced contract offer would be. We are not being cheap, in fact we offered to overpay, but in order for these players to realize their potential they have to get started. Surely you understand.".
In the end maybe Team Bubba gets all offended and heads off to Lincoln to get flattened by some freak of nature in costume as a defensive end at Ohio State in the fall. Then in the spring it turns out Bubba isn't that good at baseball anyway and life goes on.
But you have to stick to it. You put the money in escrow and make the terms public so everyone knows that it is about the service, not the money. Spin this thing correctly and the Royals win. Dayton, your Wartime Consigliere doesn't hand out on the record advise very often, but this one could turn you into something big time.
This practice might become all the rage and become known as "The Moore Play". Michael Lewis might write a book about you. Highly paid corporate speaking gigs on negotiating are sure to follow along with offers to broker Middle East peace accords. Perhaps you could start your own compensation consultancy. Do it Dayton, our fee is on the house.
This being said, we believe the Royals should try and break the current practice of letting your first round draft pick sit around and eat Cheez-Its all summer while listening to Scott Boras approved self-esteem books on tape. The Powder Blue Room has come up with a new unique strategy to accomplish two things. One; get Bubba Starling in a minor league uniform and playing baseball. Two; set a precedent for how to deal with high first round picks.
The understood forfeiture of a player's first year in the minors appears to be an underrated hindrance in most organizations. The real reasons are due to gamesmanship or so Scott Boras can appear to earn his fee and all are a major setback in the development of a high school player, especially the toolsy, "athlete" type player. By now the drill is pretty straight forward. The two sides don't even bother talking until late July, where everyone threatens to go to college, go play for the Fort Worth Power Lug Nut Donkey Shoes and re-enter the draft next year, this that and the other before miraculously coming to an agreement right before the signing deadline in middle August.
As Rany on the Royals pointed out, Bubba is your new age "old" guy masquerading as a high school senior. In order for a prospect like Bubba to have a shot at "developing" all the proposed talent he posses, he can't be darn near 20 years old before he plays his first minor league game. The first season is important and it would be important in any sense, but the age of Starling makes it that much more important. So important that we believe the Royals have a legitimate argument to say "Bubba, your value goes considerably down if you don't get a full season in this year".
As a high school draftee, it is unlikely the Royals will have to cough up a major league contract to Bubba. Scott Boras can hand out all the prepared charts and marketing three ring binders he wants. He can give a two hundred slide power point presentation of Bubba Starling highlights with Eye of the Tiger playing as background music, but the bottom line is that it is going to take about $7 or $7.5 million to sign Bubba and get this experiment off the ground.
As the Royals' "Wartime Consigliere" here is how the Powder Blue Room suggests the Royals play it. Back on June 7th, the first day after the draft, you walk in and say "Bubba, here is a contract for $7.5 million. It is on the high side, but you sign that thing with-in two weeks, get in a uniform and it is yours".
Then you tell Bubba the following: "Bubba, the rub here buddy is we don't think you are worth as much if you take this year off. So for every two-weeks you don't sign we take $500,000 off the contract amount. So if you want to go to Nebraska and try and be Tommy Frazier, go ahead, but we value the actual act of playing baseball and you are no spring chicken, so let's get to it".
Scott Boras is a smart guy and gets his fee based on the total amount of the contract. He gives up getting to play super negotiator guy, but all in all he ends up with the same amount of money in his pocket. The Royals potentially overpay a little, but they get a full minor league season out of Bubba and a much better probability he realizes his potential.
You put this in writing and send it to every media outlet and you hold a press conference stating the terms of the deal. Then you stick to it on the following premise: "You are not worth as much if you take the summer off, in our opinion. We offered you big time money, and the only thing you didn't get to do is go through the negotiation dance. Royals fans, don't be discouraged because if he sits the summer out, he was only worth what the reduced contract offer would be. We are not being cheap, in fact we offered to overpay, but in order for these players to realize their potential they have to get started. Surely you understand.".
In the end maybe Team Bubba gets all offended and heads off to Lincoln to get flattened by some freak of nature in costume as a defensive end at Ohio State in the fall. Then in the spring it turns out Bubba isn't that good at baseball anyway and life goes on.
But you have to stick to it. You put the money in escrow and make the terms public so everyone knows that it is about the service, not the money. Spin this thing correctly and the Royals win. Dayton, your Wartime Consigliere doesn't hand out on the record advise very often, but this one could turn you into something big time.
This practice might become all the rage and become known as "The Moore Play". Michael Lewis might write a book about you. Highly paid corporate speaking gigs on negotiating are sure to follow along with offers to broker Middle East peace accords. Perhaps you could start your own compensation consultancy. Do it Dayton, our fee is on the house.
Thursday, July 14, 2011
Baseball is back!
Finally! Here we go with the second half of the season, nothing has changed but there are still a lot of games to play and who really knows what to expect. The PBR feels all of this "analysis" is getting a little stale and in the words of Ned Yost we're going to try and "freshen things up a bit." Here we go with some random thoughts from the first game after the all-star break.
Bruce Chen could get away with murder, the first two innings: 5 baserunners, one thrown out at the plate and no runs.
The Royals start out by capitalizing on errors and scoring a couple of greasy runs, do I sense a repeat of the hot start in April???
Hosmer is going with the goatee style facial hair and giving up on the full beard, I'm not sure if I like the change but I guess a full beard in KC in August is suicide - let's see how it goes.
Routine ground ball to Chris Getz turns into a hit, defensive specialist you say Mr. Yost?? Sorry, I just can't get off the Mike Aviles bandwagon.
Moustakas says thanks for the double Delmon. Brayan Pena is my favorite player, hands down. Another slightly unearned run. 3-0, that's all Chen needs.
Chen just blew away someone with an 84mph fastball, I don't get it. Two more runners LOB, Chen is making it look easy, Yost was right; if he hadn't gone on the DL we'd be fighting for first place.
Classic Getz! Groundball to SS, bobble and he beats it out for a hit. Ned will applaud the speed and athleticism while ignoring the .291 SLG%.
The "AT&T trivia" has finally stumped Ryan and Frank. Normally it is more or less a chance for them to show off their baseball knowledge and defeat the purpose of fan trivia by shouting out every possible answer until they're forced to post the results. Oh wait, Frank just informed us that he knew the answer all along, but held it in so we could guess, thanks Frank.
Plouffe! Just like that it's 4-3 and Chen couldn't quite escape another inning. I was just working on the terms of a new 3-year $20 million contract to offer Chen - guess I'll keep that in the bank.
Frank and Ryan are debating the merits and tactics behind advancing runners from second to third with no outs for the 107th time this year. Surprisingly, Frenchy did not get the job done.
Royals default staff ace goes 5IP 4ER, good things are in store for the rotation.
Please Frank and Ryan, I'm begging you, no more Frenchy clubhouse leader talk! I can't hear it anymore. You can't talk about leaders on teams with the 3rd worst record in baseball; they are failing at leading or they're not leaders. You can't have it both ways. "The leader of the Greek economy really has his Economics Ministry feeling good about themselves."
Ned's really working those bullpen match-ups in a 8-3 game. Gotta play the percentages, and burn out your pen in the first game after the all-star break.
I'm really starting to worry about Butler, he seems disinterested in hitting baseballs. Frenchy is the leader, Gordon is now a better hitter and Hosmer isn't moving from first base, what's his role??? Turn that frown upside-down Billy!
Bullpen not impressive, offense goes to sleep, Royals lose. That game was pretty much the opposite of what would make me excited to tune in for the second half. More of the same, another day in the life of a Royals fan.
Bruce Chen could get away with murder, the first two innings: 5 baserunners, one thrown out at the plate and no runs.
The Royals start out by capitalizing on errors and scoring a couple of greasy runs, do I sense a repeat of the hot start in April???
Hosmer is going with the goatee style facial hair and giving up on the full beard, I'm not sure if I like the change but I guess a full beard in KC in August is suicide - let's see how it goes.
Routine ground ball to Chris Getz turns into a hit, defensive specialist you say Mr. Yost?? Sorry, I just can't get off the Mike Aviles bandwagon.
Moustakas says thanks for the double Delmon. Brayan Pena is my favorite player, hands down. Another slightly unearned run. 3-0, that's all Chen needs.
Chen just blew away someone with an 84mph fastball, I don't get it. Two more runners LOB, Chen is making it look easy, Yost was right; if he hadn't gone on the DL we'd be fighting for first place.
Classic Getz! Groundball to SS, bobble and he beats it out for a hit. Ned will applaud the speed and athleticism while ignoring the .291 SLG%.
The "AT&T trivia" has finally stumped Ryan and Frank. Normally it is more or less a chance for them to show off their baseball knowledge and defeat the purpose of fan trivia by shouting out every possible answer until they're forced to post the results. Oh wait, Frank just informed us that he knew the answer all along, but held it in so we could guess, thanks Frank.
Plouffe! Just like that it's 4-3 and Chen couldn't quite escape another inning. I was just working on the terms of a new 3-year $20 million contract to offer Chen - guess I'll keep that in the bank.
Frank and Ryan are debating the merits and tactics behind advancing runners from second to third with no outs for the 107th time this year. Surprisingly, Frenchy did not get the job done.
Royals default staff ace goes 5IP 4ER, good things are in store for the rotation.
Please Frank and Ryan, I'm begging you, no more Frenchy clubhouse leader talk! I can't hear it anymore. You can't talk about leaders on teams with the 3rd worst record in baseball; they are failing at leading or they're not leaders. You can't have it both ways. "The leader of the Greek economy really has his Economics Ministry feeling good about themselves."
Ned's really working those bullpen match-ups in a 8-3 game. Gotta play the percentages, and burn out your pen in the first game after the all-star break.
I'm really starting to worry about Butler, he seems disinterested in hitting baseballs. Frenchy is the leader, Gordon is now a better hitter and Hosmer isn't moving from first base, what's his role??? Turn that frown upside-down Billy!
Bullpen not impressive, offense goes to sleep, Royals lose. That game was pretty much the opposite of what would make me excited to tune in for the second half. More of the same, another day in the life of a Royals fan.
Saturday, July 9, 2011
Yostian Leadoff Logic
It's easy to pick-on managers of losing teams and single out certain idiosyncrasies as making a much bigger impact on the team's performance than they actually do. This is admittedly what I'm trying to do here, but Ned's insistence on batting Chris Getz in the leadoff spot has made the team worse and, by Yost's own admission, doesn't make sense. Let's take a look at how Ned justifies his constantly evolving and shifting logic on who the team's leadoff hitter should be:
“When I looked at it, I thought, ‘OK, as good of a hitter as Mike is, I don’t really have any leadoff candidates outside of (Chris) Getz — because Getzie has some speed and can steal some bases.’ But Mike has more offensive capabilities.”
This was coming out of spring training and as it turns out might have been the second most intelligent thing Yost goes on to say all year regarding leadoff hitters. It was these types of comments that gave me hope in Yost's ability to be a good manager and not put people like Getz in the leadoff spot just because of the age old baseball wisdom that leadoff hitters have to be slap-hitting speedsters. Ned would obviously abandon this logic, even though it still stands true to this day that Mike Aviles IS a better hitter than Chris Getz.
“I’d rather have him further down the lineup,” Yost admitted, “but I want to have guys who get on base at the top of the lineup…
“It doesn’t make any sense having a .290 or .300 on-base guy leadoff.”
Pure Genius! Ned moving Alex Gordon to the leadoff spot was by far and away the most intelligent managerial decision he's made as a KC Royal. He wanted a guy who got on base to hit first, he wanted one of the better hitters on the team to hit the most often. It was smart. It was going well. And then....
"There’s no magic cure, no magic elixir, that’s going to fix everything,” Yost said. “But this changes it around and gives it a bit of a different look. We’ll just see if we can freshen it up a little bit. It’s been stale lately.”
This is where Ned takes a turn for the worse. The stale line-up shuffle logic??? It's time-honored managerial strategy 101. The problem is there wasn't a problem. If it ain't broke, just break it. The Gordon leadoff move was going along swimmingly, it just happened to coincide with a Hosmer slump, an even bigger Jeff Francouer slump, sending Mike Aviles down thus ending the effective Getz-Aviles platoon and taking one of the team's best hitters out of the line-up (Wilson Betemit). But no, Yost wouldn't see that, instead he would just ramble off something about how to "freshen up" a line up and thus give-up on his previous logic which led him to his best decision in hitting Godon leadoff.
“Melky is as clutch of a hitter as we’ve got,” Yost said. “That’s what you look at late in the game when the top of the order comes up. You’re trying to get your best hitters to the top of your order and let them produce.”
This was the (brief) result of the Gordon switch which again contained some well founded logic and wasn't bad because it moved-up Hosmer to #2 and placed Gordon and Butler in the middle instead of the streaky Frenchy. Though you can sense his logic starting to falter here as he talks about "clutch hitting" from the leadoff spot and implies that it must have been Gordon's lack of clutch hitting which led to the "stale" line-up. This line-up lasted five games, the Royals went 2-3 and nothing bad really happend. Then the Royals head to San Diego and the National League rules, Getz is riding a modest hot-streak, and Ned Yost loses his mind. His answer to not having Billy Butler in the line-up is to move Chris Getz to the #2 spot??? The Royals lose all three games and Yost decides to move Getz to the leadoff spot on July 1, 2011...
“He’s hot right now,” manager Ned Yost said.
Forget everything I said before, Getzie is HOT, HOT, HOT. He's the leadoff solution. What I said about having your best hitters and on-base guys, scratch that here is my new theory...
"You spread 'em out more," Yost said. "I want speed and athleticism at the top and I want guys that can at least have a chance to produce down at the bottom and keep it going."
What does this mean? Producers at the bottom and athletes at the top? Chris Getz can't produce, so you might as well lead him off and make sure he hits more often because he is fast? Nope, it turns out that Chris Getz IS a producer and Ned wants that all important BA with runners in scoring position at the top...
“You look every year, and the leaders in RBIs are basically the same. The leaders in home runs will basically be the same. Batting average, the same thing. Year in, year out. But runners in scoring position changes every stinkin’ year.”
This is said in reference to Getzie's uncanny ability to hit with runners in scoring position. You can tell Ned is confused here, he has gone past the point of no return and is just saying things for the sake of it. Here is an interesting stat which might, just maybe, be slightly more applicable to your leadoff hitter. Chris Getz when hittting first:
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 7/9/2011.
Things like this are surely symptomatic of a losing team and in no way would a change lead to a winning team, but Ned went from logical, to genius, and finally has reverted back to the rantings of an illogical, stubborn, typical baseball manager. This is not what we need from Ned. It's obviously not helping the team to have YOUR WORST hitter batting leadoff just because he runs fast. I don't know what's next for the Royals at the leadoff spot but anything is better than Chris Getz.
Ned on Mike Aviles:
“When I looked at it, I thought, ‘OK, as good of a hitter as Mike is, I don’t really have any leadoff candidates outside of (Chris) Getz — because Getzie has some speed and can steal some bases.’ But Mike has more offensive capabilities.”
This was coming out of spring training and as it turns out might have been the second most intelligent thing Yost goes on to say all year regarding leadoff hitters. It was these types of comments that gave me hope in Yost's ability to be a good manager and not put people like Getz in the leadoff spot just because of the age old baseball wisdom that leadoff hitters have to be slap-hitting speedsters. Ned would obviously abandon this logic, even though it still stands true to this day that Mike Aviles IS a better hitter than Chris Getz.
Ned on Gordon:
“I’d rather have him further down the lineup,” Yost admitted, “but I want to have guys who get on base at the top of the lineup…
“It doesn’t make any sense having a .290 or .300 on-base guy leadoff.”
Pure Genius! Ned moving Alex Gordon to the leadoff spot was by far and away the most intelligent managerial decision he's made as a KC Royal. He wanted a guy who got on base to hit first, he wanted one of the better hitters on the team to hit the most often. It was smart. It was going well. And then....
Ned on taking Gordon out of the leadoff spot:
"There’s no magic cure, no magic elixir, that’s going to fix everything,” Yost said. “But this changes it around and gives it a bit of a different look. We’ll just see if we can freshen it up a little bit. It’s been stale lately.”
This is where Ned takes a turn for the worse. The stale line-up shuffle logic??? It's time-honored managerial strategy 101. The problem is there wasn't a problem. If it ain't broke, just break it. The Gordon leadoff move was going along swimmingly, it just happened to coincide with a Hosmer slump, an even bigger Jeff Francouer slump, sending Mike Aviles down thus ending the effective Getz-Aviles platoon and taking one of the team's best hitters out of the line-up (Wilson Betemit). But no, Yost wouldn't see that, instead he would just ramble off something about how to "freshen up" a line up and thus give-up on his previous logic which led him to his best decision in hitting Godon leadoff.
Ned on Melky:
“Melky is as clutch of a hitter as we’ve got,” Yost said. “That’s what you look at late in the game when the top of the order comes up. You’re trying to get your best hitters to the top of your order and let them produce.”
This was the (brief) result of the Gordon switch which again contained some well founded logic and wasn't bad because it moved-up Hosmer to #2 and placed Gordon and Butler in the middle instead of the streaky Frenchy. Though you can sense his logic starting to falter here as he talks about "clutch hitting" from the leadoff spot and implies that it must have been Gordon's lack of clutch hitting which led to the "stale" line-up. This line-up lasted five games, the Royals went 2-3 and nothing bad really happend. Then the Royals head to San Diego and the National League rules, Getz is riding a modest hot-streak, and Ned Yost loses his mind. His answer to not having Billy Butler in the line-up is to move Chris Getz to the #2 spot??? The Royals lose all three games and Yost decides to move Getz to the leadoff spot on July 1, 2011...
Ned on Getzie:
“He’s hot right now,” manager Ned Yost said.
Forget everything I said before, Getzie is HOT, HOT, HOT. He's the leadoff solution. What I said about having your best hitters and on-base guys, scratch that here is my new theory...
"You spread 'em out more," Yost said. "I want speed and athleticism at the top and I want guys that can at least have a chance to produce down at the bottom and keep it going."
What does this mean? Producers at the bottom and athletes at the top? Chris Getz can't produce, so you might as well lead him off and make sure he hits more often because he is fast? Nope, it turns out that Chris Getz IS a producer and Ned wants that all important BA with runners in scoring position at the top...
“You look every year, and the leaders in RBIs are basically the same. The leaders in home runs will basically be the same. Batting average, the same thing. Year in, year out. But runners in scoring position changes every stinkin’ year.”
This is said in reference to Getzie's uncanny ability to hit with runners in scoring position. You can tell Ned is confused here, he has gone past the point of no return and is just saying things for the sake of it. Here is an interesting stat which might, just maybe, be slightly more applicable to your leadoff hitter. Chris Getz when hittting first:
Split G GS PA AB BA OBP SLG OPS Batting 1st 26 26 119 101 .168 .252 .208 .460
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 7/9/2011.
Things like this are surely symptomatic of a losing team and in no way would a change lead to a winning team, but Ned went from logical, to genius, and finally has reverted back to the rantings of an illogical, stubborn, typical baseball manager. This is not what we need from Ned. It's obviously not helping the team to have YOUR WORST hitter batting leadoff just because he runs fast. I don't know what's next for the Royals at the leadoff spot but anything is better than Chris Getz.
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