Analysis: I love it!

After ingesting more internet information in connection with a Kansas City Royals' baseball move than I ever thought humanly possible, my jaw has been scraped up off the floor and I'm a KC Royals fan again. I didn't think Dayton had it in him, I really didn't. He listened to me, finally. I don't think it's brilliant, I don't think it's smart, but I do think it's AWESOME. There seems to two camps which have emerged from this trade:

The Thumbs-uppers: We say it had to be done, we're thrilled to have the most legitimate pre-season hype for the Royals in a long time, we don't care about age 26 Wil Myers because even if he is Ryan Braun we would have been Dodgers fans by then, we ignore the James Shield bashers and think this is about the best we could do and we've already renewed our MLB TV subscriptions.

The Thumbs-downers: The Royals gave up WAY too much, there are prospects and then there are Wil Myers prospects, you could have had Anibal Sanchez and kept Wil Myers, Wil Myers over Francouer is the same as adding James Shields and James Shields still isn't enough.

Since I'm giving it two thumbs up let me try to address those who thought it was more Godfather III than Part II:

The Royals gave up WAY too much

Obviously, but I really don't care. The 'what if' scenarios are unlimited so I'm not going to go into 20 years of baseball trades and analyze the ramifications of these types of moves. The only reality is that they had to beat the next guy and this is what it took. Time will tell.

Wil Myers is not your average top prospect

That's possible, but it's also possible that he's much more like Jesus Montero and Justin Smoak than Mike Trout. The bottom line for me is that there is an equally likely probability that James Shields is Justin Verlander in 2013 as there is for Wil Myers turning into Ryan Braun immediately.

You could have had Anibal Sanchez AND kept Wil Myers

Let's just assume that big spender David Glass would have approved this signing (That's a BIG if). Let's also assume that James Shields and he are both 200 inning 3.5 ERA guys over the next two years (good #2s, but not King Felix). Let's keep going and consent that Shields wasn't enough for the Royals to make the playoffs in 2013 or 2014, but they're on the doorstep. Whatever you think Myers will be, would you rather have that and a back loaded Anibal Sanchez contract with 4yrs and 60-65$ million left starting in 2015 or James Shields for two years and that money to pick-up whatever is needed to get the Royals to the next level? I really don't think having Anibal Sanchez at 6yrs/$90 mil is the answer.

Wil Myers over Francouer is the same upgrade

Let's be clear, I hate the fact that Frenchy will be our starting RF this year, and there is no other good solution, but after having written 51% of all PBR posts dedicated toward negative Frenchy analysis, I'll give you something positive. Frenchy is just as likely to put up 2011 Frenchy numbers as is Wil Myers of putting up those same numbers. Frenchy was awful last year, but in 2011 he was above respectable and counting on Wil Myers to have an .805 OPS with 20 HRs and 20 SBs right out of the gate is just as probable as it is that Frenchy will bounce back this year. There it is, the most positive I have been or ever will be toward Jeff Francouer. When the Ryan Ludwicks and Jason Kuebels of the world go for modest prices, Wil Myers has to be one hell of a RF to regret trading three years down the road.  

James Shields still isn't enough

Maybe not, granted. However, if he wasn't enough then no James Shields was going to make 2013 another year where we were waiting to see what trade could be made in July so as to have few more prospects for NEXT year instead of possibly seeing the Royals doing the buying at this year's trade deadline. I might not have been around to care about 2014 if 2013 didn't get a lot better than 2012. If you want to fight for hours over the semantics of whether or not James Shields is a true ACE, it could go on for hours depending on your side of the argument. The easiest logic for me to follow is this: the Royals obviously didn't have anyone even close to that discussion before, and now we do.

Is 2013 Finally OUR TIME???

I think I love this trade because it is really the first thing the Royals have done to look like a winner which I have ever witnessed. I never thought that it would be possible for Dayton to give away a prospect like Myers and the fact that I'm surprised for the first time in his tenure is what makes me love this trade so much. Maybe I'm blind and this is the trade equivalent to signing Jason Kendall (well known good clubhouse guy and leader of men), but Dayton I applaud the move. Dayton Moore has absolutely earned the right to save his job by trading the very prospects he groomed. Whatever we may think of him, there is little doubt that those were his prospects being traded. He earned that currency and if he was fired for another disappointing team in 2013, someone else would have reaped whatever benefits Wil Myers gave the 2014-2018 Royals. So this is his trade to live-and-die by, and he will.  

PULL THE TRIGGER!

After falling into a comatose state of Royals boredom sometime toward the end of last year, I've been awoken to rumblings that Dayton Moore is about to launch Our Time 2.0, and this time he means it. Rumor this, rumor that, a signing here and a trade there and suddenly I find myself once again interested  in this team known as the KC Royals. After being put to sleep by Frenchy ground-outs and Hochevar blowouts last season the PBR is back. Lets face it, if we didn't weigh in on this little tidbit, we'd have to retire our blogging press credentials.

I'll admit it, one of the few reasons I decided to jump back in now was the remarkable prescience of a certain blog post from last February. Who could have possibly imagined that being locked in to paying $12 mil to Frenchy and Chen this coming season might affect future events?:

“The truth of the matter,” Moore said, “is if we add another pitcher … there wouldn’t be room to add that individual unless we got rid of somebody else.”

So let's just forget about the fact that paying B. Chen and Jeff Francouer might be preventing us from having James Shields as our opening day starter, the real issue is Moore's logic. The best we can assume is that Dayton needs to mentally prepare himself for the speech he's going to give Luke Hochevar when he's released and once we add this big time #1 starter, he'll tell Luke that we just couldn't afford to keep him around. Because if not, the obvious question to ask Dayton would be: IF MONEY WERE SUCH A BIG CONCERN, WHY DID YOU NEED TO ADD BOTH GUTHRIE AND SANTANA SO SOON???????????????????????

We're paying those two $17 mil this year, was there really some big concern that they (or their ilk) would get away if we didn't act fast? Obviously if we're considering trading our best prospect for another pitcher, Dayton feels the current staff isn't good enough to win next year, or why else would he be considering this type of trade? This seems like an admission that Guthrie and Santana are nice, but aren't really enough to get to the next level. Santana was going to be released by the Angels if we didn't grab him and I can't believe that Guthrie was knee deep in three year offers. Would some combination of 3 years and $37 mil (1yr $12 mil for Santana + 3yrs $25 mil for Guthrie) not get you Guthrie and Santana substitutes a month from now? The point is that Dayton knew these two weren't going to be enough, so why not wait and get the #1 you wanted and then go for the #3-#4 starters like Guthrie and Santana? Was he really scared that he was going to trade for a #1 starter and then wind up a Jeremy Guthrie short of the playoffs?

Quick draw McMoore has done his annual ADD early offseason player grab, all of which have worked out great in the past (See Mazzaro, Sanchez and Kendall) and now he throws out the above excuse for not being able to take it to the next level. Granted, you may fee that Wil Myers is golden and can't be traded, especially not for John Lester, but if you're considering going all in, don't tell me that salary is stopping you after you just spent 37 MILLION DOLLARS! I'll admit that I like seeing that there seems to be a pulse in Robot GM Dayton's body. However, don't tease us again, make a trade and live with the possibility that it could backfire, but at least you gave it a shot.

Dear Dayton, make it happen NOW! We can't blame you for trading a prospect in order to win, but we can blame you if your excuse for not getting a top tier pitcher is that you've spent too much money on Bruce Chen and you really want to give Hochever one last shot. We also can't blame you if Hosmer sucks, Gordon gets injured and Alcides goes back to a .230 hitter, but we can blame you if they're good and what we're missing is James Shields.

Feels good to get that off the PBR's chest!  

Ned Sense: If it aint broke, brake it

So if you haven't heard yet, Ned Yost confirmed his stupidity to the whole world yesterday, when he once again decided to tinker with his lineup. The team had won 10 of 15 and was playing good baseball in response to the culture shift implemented by big bad GM Dayton Moore. Then Ned just decides that Alex Gordon isn't "prototypical" enough to bat leadoff anymore. His logic seems to be that Alex was scoring too many runs and prefers him to get RBIs instead. Ned thinks there is a difference between the two, and that the whole problem this season has been the third spot in the lineup.

Yes, Ned, the middle of the lineup has been a problem, however it's because Eric Hosmer has sucked! Not because Chris Getz and Jarrod Dyson haven't been at the top of the lineup. You've tried this before Ned, it doesn't work. Yes, we would love for Gordon to be hitting third, but this isn't the important point, the important issue here is that you don't have a leadoff hitter. I love Dyson, but he's a fun nine hole hitter not Rickey Henderson. It's like Ned is the guy from Memento and can't remember when he's done something before.

This tells you that he shouldn't be given credit for putting Gordon leadoff; it was purely accidental. If you do something that works and then decide to change it, this means that you had no idea it was actually working. Move Billy Butler up, tell Hosmer to grow up and hit third or fourth, but don't change a strategy that has been working all year.

Lets hope this is the beginning of the end for Yosty. This is not the move of  a winning manager.

Trade Dud-line Special

In quite possibly the least surprising trade of D Moore's career, the Royals shipped Jonathan Broxton to Cinci for two players who at this point are capable of throwing the ball. That's it. Of course Dayton had to admit that he didn't get what he wanted...

“We tried to focus on bringing back a starting pitcher who could be in our rotation today,” general manager Dayton Moore admitted. “Or if not today, certainly next year. It just didn’t materialize for us.”

The going rate for two months of J Broxton was not worthy of a starting major league pitcher; Texas decided they didn't need Broxton that much. So apparently they settled for...

"...two pitchers that we like a great deal,” Moore said. “They’re at the upper levels, and we targeted close-to-ready major-league pitching as we possibly could. It was the deal that made the most sense and put us in the best position to move forward.”

Simple as that, move on. In an offseason that featured trading one of the best hitters in baseball for the worst pitcher in baseball and giving $13 mil to one of the worst everyday players in baseball, this is the highlight of Dayton's offseason. Broxton delayed the inevitable of Greg Holland becoming the closer while doing an adequate job of subbing for Joakim and in the end the Royals gained some organizational depth. Not trading Broxton would have obviously been idiotic, so Moore did the best he could and the Royals are probably better off for having made a nice by low acquisition like Broxton. So, good job Dayton, something went right this offseason.

It would have been great to be in the position of Pittsburgh looking to add players and make a run, but moving on is important too. It's been a bad year and not much can happen to change that. Now the Royals take their medicine and try to do something positive, starting with wining a few games.

Maybe next year will be our turn.     

Ned Sense: Injuries are for the injured

"I would like to give him just a break, but he's swinging the bat too well right now," Yost said. "We need to win games, and we've got to put the best lineup in there right now. We're not afforded the luxury of giving guys a break because we're doing well. We have to put our best foot forward every day to try to win some games and get closer to that .500 mark."

Yet another gem for the Ned Yost quote book. This was his response when asked about giving Cain a day off while recovering from an injury. Ned thinks that risking injury for important players is justified when trying to chase down that .500 mark. Oh, by the way, the Royals are now just a 14 game wining streak from getting to that .500 record, and obviosly there is no way of starting a winning streak without L. Cain in the line-up. COME THE F**K ON NED. Is he really serious with this? Does Ned ever think about putting a plug in that giant mouth hole he uses to say stupid things?

So if Cain re-injuries his leg, Ned thinks he can justify this because the team is trying to get to .500. Nobody is asking for Ned give up and accept the fact that his team is out of it this year, but saying things like this really makes you question the marble rolling around in Yosty's over-sized hat rack. You'd think four Tomm Johns, two knee surgeries, a record of 40-54 and the TWO MONTHs already missed by Cain would serve as a good reminder of how important health is to your team's success, and unfortunately if the Royals are to have any success it won't be this year. However, if they lose the chance to make sure Cain is the immediate future in CF because Delusional Ned thinks we're still chasing .500 this season he should be fired for saying this.

This isn't the first time Ned's Blow Hole has indicated a serious lack of understanding when it comes to medicine and health concerns. Here is Ned Yost openly ignoring the recommendations of the very people trained to evaluate injuries:

“The trainers are saying three days a week,” manager Ned Yost said, “and I’m thinking five days a week. So I’ll probably catch him, up through the All-Star break, four days a week.”

Once again, risking injury to a player who has recently returned to the line-up after missing several months due to an injury is justified in Yosty's world. Plain and simple, he likes Salvy Perez better than Bryan Pena, therefore Salvy's knees suffer the possibility of overuse because General Yost doesn't trust medical science. Maybe Yost was just being funny and the trainers didn't really say that, but I doubt it. This sounds like exactly the "I've got a hunch" type of logic employed by managers still using sacrifice bunts like its 1955. Your medical staff is telling you that there exits the possibilty of re-injury if used in excess, excessive use threshold = X, therefore Ned Yost will employ the following formula:

X + 1 (over the excess) for the first few weeks and then X + "whatever I feel like because in my completely uninformed medical opinion, Salvy's knees are fine"    

Yost doesn't understand that the difference between having Sal Perez play one or two extra games each week is actually worth something like one or two wins to the team over the entire season. The same for Lorenzo Cain, if he were to play like 2001-2004 juiced-out-of-his-mind Barry Bonds it might mean one extra one over the rest of this season (not the 14 need to get to .500). However, starting the year without these guys next season could mean the difference between actually having a shot at that aforementioned .500 record and Ned Yost losing his job by the All-Star break.

Just another day in the life of Ned Yost, fearless leader of your Kansas City Royals.

Wrong answer, Dayton

"You want them all to work out, but most of the time they don't, unfortunately,'' Royals general manager Dayton Moore said Tuesday.

This is what Dayton Moore came up with today in response to the inevitable dumping of our prize offseason pitching acquisition. Our General Manger takes the position that "most times" trades don't work out? Is this how D-Moore really operates, most times it doesn't work out? Why yes, Dayton, for a team that has been losing for 26 years, most times it does not work out. BUT YOU'RE SUPPOSED TO CHANGE THAT. IT'S YOUR JOB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I realize that this quote might have been taken slightly out of context, or that Dayton simply misspoke a little, but it left me feeling like writing a frustrated blog post venting about the current state of the Royals. No one blames Dayton for this one. People blame him for Jose Guillen, the demise of Gil Meche, Frenchy and Yuni part II and the Midwestern heat wave from hell. But he gets a free pass on Jonathan Sanchez. Even Royals fans who saw All Star MVP Melky Cabrera drop a bomb just a few days ago only to watch Sanchez's masterpiece final act yesterday don't hold too much of a grudge. If Melky Cabrera is arrested tomorrow for spying on the US for Fidel Castro, the Royals have still lost this trade. That said, this was a good trade at the time, unfortunately we have seen the worst result possible.

So Dayton should have simply chalked this one up to bad luck. But as Dayton seems to do, he tried to explain this in terms of fundamental baseball laws that not everyone understands. Hey guys, this is just the business, you all don't get it: most times it doesn't work out. Is Dayton writing a County & Western song? For someone who frequently talks about creating a "winning culture" this comment is very much that of a loser. Your goal should be that most times it does work out, are you admitting that you are less intelligent than most other GMs? The correct response was most times it doesn't go this bad, but I'll trade upside starting pitchers for reliable hitters any day of the week.

This has been a frustrating year for the Royals and Dayton has had a really bad run; the Jeff Francouer-Wil Myers saga, Bruce Chen returning to earth, four Tommy Js, the player formerly known as Eric Hosmer, the top prospect formerly know as Mike Montgomery, Luke Hochevar's 65th corner turning start and Melky Cabrera's revenge on top. However, I said it earlier this year, total failure might be the best thing for the Royals, Moore and Ownership. It's Your Time, now!

Taking Stock: Q1 Earnings Report

Your KC Royals are a hard stock to evaluate; they're not as bad as the 12 game losing streak would have led you to believe and yet they're definitely not as good as their marketing team had anticipated ("Our Time" joke #7,256). The first quarter earnings are just coming in for the KC Royals, and they're not great. A few buys, many holds and a lot of sells. Lets take a look at what the PBR analysts are saying:

Eric Hosmer: If there was ever a time to buy, it's now. We're not telling you any big secret, but after hitting an all time high right before the season started, he's seen a steady decline in investors. Lots of analysts, Ned Yost, and his teammate in little league will tell you he's going to snap out of it. And frankly we have no choice but to believe what the street is saying. If Getz continues to out slug Hosmer the Royals will never recover. Buy, no choice.

Alcides Escobar: The hardest stocks to evaluate are those in the International SS market. The range goes from Angel Berroa (year one) to Angel Berroa (currently in the Independent leagues). Is Alcides the .300 hitter with 40+ doubles gap power that we've seen so far? Or is that .600 OPS player from his first two years still waiting to take your investors' money? The PBR as an investment firm has simply made it a rule not to play these high fluctuation currency markets. The winners win big, but the losers don't get to play anymore. Hold if you own his shares, but we don't.  

Alex Gordon: The firm of PBR had always been cautious when issuing buys on Gordon stock. We felt we had to buy his stock because we didn't want to be the only ones left out when he turned into Ryan Braun big-boy stock. However, we bought small chunks of the stock in order to limit our exposure. We still don't quite know what Gordon is; last year could simply be the exception and not the true value of Gordon. For now, the Gold Glove Gordon Value Index stock is a Hold and nothing more.

Billy Butler: I'm glad I came around on this stock last year. It's got value and Billy seems to have been able to finally unlock that power asset which had been holding down full earnings potential. At 9 HRs, Billy is currently trading at an all time and there are rumors Butler Corp. is going to start issuing dividends as well. Keep it up Billy, you're making investors very happy. Hold, maybe a buy.

Jeff Francoeur: This is not a joke, I was actually issuing buy orders on the Frenchy Club Leader long term investment fund a few weeks ago. He was so bad at the plate, there was nowhere to go but up. The real kicker is that he is guaranteed to continue playing for Royals. Dayton would never just jump ship this investment so he'll get every opportunity to turn it around. After hitting a pair of HRs in NYC the believers are back, so he's no longer a quick buy. Hold because Dayton will.

Mitch Maier: The Mitchie Money Market account barely keeps up with inflation, but he also won't hurt you. Keep him hidden just like the KC Royals' managing partner Ned Yost does.

Jarrod Dyson: I love this stock for absolutely no good reason. One asset, but it's a good one. Honestly, he probably gave you all the earnings he had for the first part of quarter one and not many analysts see growth potential, but as a wild card stock you could do worse.

Chris Getz:  Look, there are people who love this stock and I'm willing to admit that he has played MUCH better this year. He might even make it onto Vin Diesel the day trader's list of buys, and Vin might make a quick buck, but I'll continue to stay away. The believers will try to jam him down your throat like a time-share in Colorado, but I prefer condos on St. Thomas. Sell, same as always.

Mike Moustakas:  If we have to admit we were wrong on Moose last year, then so be it. He looked like a guy who might be OK, but never quite the potential of Hosmer stock. Fast forward to this year and he's one of the best 3Bs in the league while Hosmer is tanking, we didn't see that coming. I didn't see the power living up to the minor league hype, I never thought he would hit lefties and I thought he'd be a below average to horrible defender. Turns out all of those things were wrong and he's been the best player on the Royals so far. Moose Stock isn't cheap these days, but if you think he keeps up this pace he's still a buy.

Pena & Quintero:  Everybody knows exactly what types of stocks these are. The Backup Catcher Savings Bonds are there for a reason, problem is that if you've got two, that's one too many.

Aaron Crow: I give up trying to get Aaron reclassified as a large cap fund. No, seriously, I'm not complaining (for once) about the Royals not wanting to try him as a starter. Every time he throws one good inning I think he has the potential to be a stock like Jeff Samardzja, Lance Lynn or Chris Sale. However, we still see way too many bad innings for us to actually believe he could string good innings  together 6-8 at a time. Sell, the stock's earnings look pretty flat.

Tim Collins: All good closer stock has something in common; that crazy eyed look that allows them to do a ridiculous dance and pump their fist in joy when they close out a game. I think Tim Collins' stock has that look. Here is the other thing, Tim decided to go with the proven reliever success theory: walks = bad and strike outs = good. Tim's stock is still cheap while being buried in the 7th inning, if you asked me to pick a replacement for the Soria Security fund that fell out of our portfolio, I'd go with the Timmy small cap fund. His earnings have gone from 48BB/60K last year to 7BB/32K this season. Buy.

Kelvin Herrera:  I see a big time sell on this guy. Look I like watching him pitch as much as anyone, but how often do you see guys that throw 100 MPH with great change-ups sustaining it for 5 years or more? Never. How often are there teams who think they've found the exception? There's always a sucker. We think he would look nice in a package deal to go get a starter. Holding on to bullpen arms is like holding on to a firecracker for that extra thrill. The Royals have already had their fingers burned once this year, and Holland almost made it twice, so let's start lets not fall in love with Kelvin's flashy numbers. Not a sell, but I'd be looking for buyers.

Broxton, Holland and Mijares: Sell, sell and sell! Not that they're bad, but we've seen Broxton when it doesn't go right. Holland shares plummeted in the first quarter and these types of stock tend not to bounce back quickly. As for Mijares: buy low, sell high, Investment 101.

Danny Duffy: See Hosmer. Maybe we bought a few too many shares of Duffman Corp., but we needed him in our large cap portfolio. I guess we have to start looking into Odorizzi stock as the next potential for a large cap growth fund in the organization. Not happy about this one, PBR investors got burned.

Felipe Paulino: We will probably never fully believe in this stock, but if there is one stock outperforming it's price-to-earnings, it's Felipe stock. There are still enough non-believers to issue a buy on the Felipe Emerging Markets fund, but let's be realistic, he's still risky. Buy, sell or hold, either way it takes stones to play in this uncharted market.

Bruce Chen: Our favorite stock by far. Just buy it and don't think too much about it. I can't explain it from an analysts perspective, but it just works.

Luis Mendoza: This is a boring stock. Also, if the Royals give up on you this easy, there is something wrong. Stay away.

Nate Adcock: Adcock Stock is a buy. It's still dirt cheap and has shown nothing but solid earnings. We're not going long, but in the short term we'll take it.

Luck Hochever: Luke's been burning investors for years now. It's the worst kind of stock; when it tanks it it really tanks. When it's right investors come running back only to watch their retirement go up in flames. These investors continually think it's a tweak away from paying big dividends, but they simply ignore Luke's 5yr performance chart. Luke has Toxic Asset tattooed on his right arm. DO NOT BE FOOLED!

As we all know, the Royals as a whole have taken a beating in the first quarter. Q2 can't start nearly as badly as Q1 did, so we're looking for some modest gains going forward this quarter, but nothing big. Stay tuned for more free investment advice from your friendly PBR stock brokers.

Another Crazy Trade Idea

As self-appointed Internet GM of the KC Royals we here at the PBR like nothing more than to come up with bat-shit crazy trade ideas. If we're right, we get ammunition for future posts which affirm our superior GM-ing skills, and if wer're wrong we can simply delete the post. It's a win-win scenario. Last year we proposed that the Royals trade for Carlos Zambrano. So far this is working out pretty well for the Marlins; 1.87 ERA, 39 SO and one more complete game than KC's entire staff. We don't want to say we told you so because we knew the likelihood of pulling it off was low. If there is one player who is the complete opposite of Dayton Moore's team philosophy, it might be Big Z. Also, we can only assume that Big Z would have exercised his no-trade clause as soon as he heard the word Kansas. Right now the Marlins look pretty good for making this trade, but it's also pretty obvious that Ned Yost is not Ozzie Guillen. He's not from Venezuela. And he probably does not have one thing in common with Zambrano, so it may have completely backfired here in KC. However, we've got a new one which might just work... let's get Josh Beckett. Admit it, you're intrigued. Let me tell you why it makes sense:

For the Royals, it would be Dayton's most emphatic statement yet that he wants to win NOW. It's a perfect hybrid trade which minimizes both money and prospects. The Royals don't have to give up one of their big two (Meyers & Odorizzi) and they don't have to shell out $80 mil on the free agent market. Pick a mid tier Royals' prospect and throw in a bullpen arm, it shouldn't take a boatload to get two years of an aging Beckett. The Royals should also be willing to pick-up a good chunk of the tab for Beckett's remaining salary given that they have money this season and don't have anything earmarked for the next two seasons (Joakim basically just gave us back $8mil for next season). Obviously there is a lot of down side, but there's always going to be some when it involves pitchers (see the Royals). Look, Josh Beckett could develop a serious BBQ addiction and eat Oklahoma Joe's for breakfast, Gates for lunch, Arthur Bryant's for dinner and not fit into his uniform by seasons end. His arm could fall off by August. But he also could still be an Ace. Dayton can make the case that he's a "competitor" with "playoff experience" who can "help the young staff" and therefore internally justify the move. Nobody in KC cares about his past slip-ups and locals would praise the move.

For Boston, they can finally free themselves of the epic collapse of last year. At the same time they make a minor league restocking move and shed some much needed payroll. He is HATED in Boston right now and the new regime should be motivated to make their own mark on the team. The relationship has become toxic and Boston could conceivably finish fifth in their division this year. Beckett is the only thing they can trade which satisfies all needs: appeasement of the fan-base, cash flow freedom and immediate bullpen help to along with a future prospect.

For Beckett, he can flee Boston (again where he is hated) to join the Royals staff as its ace and possible savior. It's a change of scenery from being busted over dietary preferences and free time activities. Josh is from Texas, Ned thinks he's from Texas, so they should get along. Kauffman is more of a pitcher's park and maybe Josh can get away with a few more long flyouts than he does in Fenway. Our players would actually respect him instead of treating him like a scar. In KC he can warm-up with 18 holes on the day he's starting, then eat a half slab with a tall boy while he's warming up in the pen. KC fans haven't been spoiled by a couple of World Series rings and are just looking for anything positive.

Everyone wins, Dayton Moore meet Ben Cherington. Make this happen.

Dayton's All Throw Away Team

I'm by no means advocating bringing any of the following players back, and I realize that one month from now this could look really ridiculous, but I've been perusing the box scores of other teams and noticed some familiar names. In honor of the Royals facing Philip Humber tomorrow and the All Star game coming to town I've assembled a pretty good team with the players Dayton Moore has basically thrown away. Here is the batting order and starting line-up for Dayton's All  Throw Away Team:

1. RF David DeJesus: I know, I know, we still have 5 years of Vin Mazzaro going for us. And DJ wasn't under contract for this season, but still he's hitting .266/.375/.760, not exactly Ted Williams, but I'd take that at lead-off over Frenchy's .243/.298/.620 line batting fifth. And shouldn't DeJesus really be the Royals veteran leader? I mean, he's actually a veteran. And he's actually a Royal not a Brave (Dayton does seem to get the two confused). Look, not holding onto DJ and signing him to an extension isn't exactly a searing indictment against Moore, but it's the little things that add up.

2. SS Mike Aviles: For some reason I really liked Mike. I get it, he made some vague comments against management and Dayton said it was time to go. Maybe that's being a no-nonsense GM, but maybe good GMs just ignore harmless comments like this and move on with life. Mike is the type of guy whose numbers could go off a  cliff at any point in time, but the fact is right now his numbers are as good as our starting SS.

3. LF Melky Cabrera: As soon as Jonathan Sanchez comes off the DL and stops walking people, I'm sure this one will swing right back in Dayton's favor. His OPS is currently 200 points higher than Frenchy's, and he's not guaranteed $7.5 mil next season, and he currently stands to net the Giants a first round draft pick when he's let go in the offseason. Okay you decide: a better hitter this season, $7.5 mil toward a starting pitcher next season, Wil Meyers starting in RF on opening day and a possible supplemental 1st round pick in 2012 OR a really nice guy to have in the clubhouse?

4. DH Wilson Betemit: This was actually a good move initially by Dayton to get him, but then the Royals really just didn't know what to do with Betemit. Eventually his average dropped a bit and Moose was ready for the bigs so he just sat there spoiling until Detroit came along with a pair of young no-name prospects. Again not the most damaging check mark against Moore, but Wilson ended up being a severely undervalued asset. He's slugging almost .500 so far this season, so he bats clean up. Oh yeah, the Orioles are paying half as much for him as we're paying for Yuni and we're still looking for a right handed bat off the bench.  

5. 1B Kila Ka'aihue: We all know this guy never got a shot in KC and I'll bet everyone is really pulling for him to do well in Oakland. Not that I'd trade him back for Hosmer, but Hosmer would kill for his .292/.354/.785 line right about now.  

6. C John Buck: Memories! Originally part of that blockbuster-turned-dud Beltran trade. Yeah, that never worked out, but it also seemed like Dayton hated this guy from the very beginning (not that I was his #1 fan). First he went out and got renta-catcher Miggy Olivo to platoon with him and then he just flat-out releases Buck following the 2009 season. Naturally he went on to Toronto to hit 20 HRs and make the F-ing All Star team! How's that for a non tendered player coming back to bite you in the ass. Oh yeah, don't forget that Dayton did this so that he could sign old man Kendall to "develop" the young pitchers. Which you'll recall turned out well. And just as a little cherry on top, Toronto knew the season was pretty fluky and let him sign with Florida, but that got them a supplemental 1st round pick in the 2011 draft. I wonder why Toronto gets credit for being such a well run organization? He's been pretty bad in Florida, but nothing compared to how bad Kendall was with the Royals.

7. 3B Alberto Callaspo: Yes, I'd rather have Moose. No question. But the fact is Callaspo turned into a really solid player at 3B and Sean O'Sullivan turned into absolutely nothing.

8. 2B Yamaico Navarro: Dayton will most likely be back with the Braves and I'll be blogging about the Houston Astros before we know if the players he squeezed out of Pittsburgh are worth anything. What we do know is that Dayton got rid of Aviles for Yamaico because he thought Aviles had a bad attitude, but it turned out Yamico made Aviles look like Chris Getz when it comes to team unity. Also, we had to give $2 mil to Yuni to do the job Navarro was supposed handle. Not exactly great resource management by our GM.    

9. CF Willie Bloomquist: Okay this is a stretch, but I really needed a center fielder. Technically it qualifies since he was traded to Cincy for the classic late season "player to be named and cash." I'll admit that I was hard on poor Willie, but it was mainly because he was our starting CF and #2 hitter for the bulk of a season, which was not exactly his fault. However, he did manage to start for a playoff team last season so we'll give him the final spot on the All Dayton Throw Away roster.

SP Phil Humber: Who else? He threw a perfect game this year. Enough said. You know the story, left off the roster a year ago and went through a series of waiver claims to wind up reborn with the Chi Sox. Nobody can really blame Moore for the move, but the facts are still there. He has been pretty awful coming off the perfect game, but Jonathan Sanchez's 2010 season is the only season from the Royals combined staff members which was better than Humber's 2011 season.

After writing this, I've realized that there are two ways to look at the list. First, you could say I just fielded a competitive major league team from players that Dayton Moore cast away. And in return we've received Vin Mazarro, Sean O'Sullivan, Jonathan Sanchez, Jeff Francouer by extension and half of a AA roster. Not good for Moore. However, there is a glass-half-full way to view it in that we no longer need Kila Ka'aihue to be good, we need Hosmer to be great. We no longer need 160 quality innings from Philip Humber, we need 200 dominant innings from Duffy. We no longer need DeJesus to be solid, we need Wil Meyers to be a superstar. This is really the best thing that we can say for Moore right now, at least we're in a position where things can go right. Still we're already looking at next season in mid May, but it is no longer quite as painful as it once was.

The Big Three

Six starts 23 2/3 innings, 41 hits, 34 ER, 12 BB, 12 SO. These are the combined last two starts for the "Big Three" of Sanchez, Chen and Hochevar. And that includes a five inning fluke shutout by Sanchez. These were the Royals locks for the starting rotation at the beginning the year. These are the reasons why Aaron Crow can't get a shot, the reasons why Felipe Paulino had to fight for a spot in the rotation and the reasons why the Royals felt they were good on the starting rotation going into the year.

It's been a bad stretch for these guys. So BAD that the Royals might be the first team in the history of modern baseball to have not one, not two, but three long relievers. Yes, the minor league call-up everyone has been waiting for: The Return of Vinny Mazzaro! That's how bad the rotation has been; they need help from a pitcher who is the owner of the worst relief appearance in history. Be honest you never thought we'd have to see Vinny again, did you?

Am I supposed to react like a radio-show-call-in-crazy and recommend that Hochevar be released immediately, Dayton Moore fired and Ned Yost banished to the Korean leagues? I've actually done that already, but this is really all I want to hear from Dayton Moore after a few beers and shots of whiskey...

Dayton after his second double bourbon: "Look Mr. PBR Blogger Guy, I hear you, but it basically came down to me giving up the Matt Latos/Gio Gonzalez uber package of prospects or taking a flyer on Jonathan Sanchez. Can you really blame me? If you and Bobby Joe the radio call-in guy really thought this team was ready for that kind of move then so be it, but I didn't. The Reds and Nationals are at least two years ahead of us in development. Do you see Stephen Strasburg anywhere, how bout Joey Votto? Yeah, I gave Bruce Chen $9 mil, but the Marlins gave Mark Buehrle $58 mil and if I'm regretting not paying 35 year old Mark Buehrle $18 mil in 2014 then I'll personally give you my job. And by the way, do you think David Glass handed me a check book and said go get Yu Darvish? If so, you're not exactly familiar with how Wal Mart CEOs make money.

Me: "Wow Mr. Moore, when you put it that way, please do continue. Bartender, another round."

Dayton: "And could anyone really have imagined that Luke Hochevar would be this bad? I get it, he's been bad before, but now it's to the point where even Ned is having trouble playing this one down. I don't even watch the guys starts anymore. I usually just watch reruns of Two and Half Men or do Pilates and wait for Ned to tell me we have to call-up ANOTHER long reliever from Omaha. Seriously, Ned thinks we're playing fantasy baseball waiver wire here. I can't even keep the names straight anymore, is Jeff Suppan still available?"

Me: "Yeah, I guess you too don't like to see Hochevar pitching like he's playing pinball, but what about Luis Mendoza?"

Dayton: "Yeah, that one was more of a stretch than the others. Look every good team has this guy who comes from nowhere to all-of-a-sudden throw 200 quality innings. Did you know who Doug Fister was until last year? What about Ryan Vogelsong? And I'll punch you in the face if you even think about about mentioning Philip Humber. The point is I didn't think Luis Mendoza was going to be successful, I hoped that he would. In fact, I prayed to every single known deity observed on the face of the earth. I felt I had to take a chance with him, I mean he was the best pitcher in AAA last year. If you just let him go and he goes on to have success somewhere else I'd really give you and your blogging brethren something to talk about." 
  
Me: "You know you fired a pitching coach because because we were walking too many guys, how's that working out so far? By the way we lead the league in walks"

Dayton: "Look Hitler couldn't convince Jonathan Sanchez to walk fewer people. The guy is who he is. If you suddenly swapped brains with Greg Maddux, he'd still walk five per nine innings. As for the rest of them, I'm just glad Felipe Paulino is back. Not that he's got pinpoint control, but at least one of my moves from last season has a chance of looking good. It's been a rough year pal, but this job isn't easy."

If I could believe Dayton actually thought that way, it would be one thing. But I don't. I think Dayton would defend his offseason rotation building to the grave. I think that he would make all of the same moves again and will continue to do so until he's out of a job or Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg and Cole Hamels decide to volunteer for the Royals.

My contention is that total failure is actually the best thing for the Royals. Teasing your fans with false hope and then trotting out Jonathan Sanchez and Luck Hochever to get shelled every fifth day is the kind of thing that actually will force a GM to do something. If we were sporting a nice little .500 hundred record with decent pitching, Moore would think what he did was okay and proceed accordingly. Now he has to face the fact that this rotation is all on him and it simply isn't going to cut it in order to make your team a winner.    
 

Press the Panic Button NOW!

We here at the PBR aren't the types to offer calming advice on how to keep things in perspective early in the season. No, we take our laptop computers and go running for the panic room. The Royals are not well my friends. Thankfully we have enough scapegoats to fill a roster...

#1 Jonathan Broxton: He got this whole thing rolling with the worst blown save in Royals history, he leads off.

#2 Luke Hochevar: I don't care how unlucky he got in that one inning, it was demoralizing to come home to a stadium full of hopeful fans and then just serve it up like that. Unacceptable.

#3 Rex Hudler: I'm convinced that Frank White wouldn't let this happen.

#4 Greg Holland: Couldn't he have just carried last year over to this year? Was it really too much to ask?

#5 Alex Gordon: He forgot to tell everyone that he was going to "dominate" again this year.

#6 Jonathan Sanchez: Doing his best to accomplish the feat of making trading Melky Carbrera look like a bad decision.

#7 Luis Mendoza: For proving the old baseball adage that spring training stats are worthless, and then forgetting to tell Ned Yost and Dayton Moore about his experiment.

#8 Aaron Crow: For not having a third pitch which allows you to beat out Luis Mendoza in the starting rotation.

#9 Humberto Quintero: He's hitting too well for us to just blame all of this on the Sal Perez injury.

#10 Eric Hosmer: Stop toying with our emotions like this.

#11 Jeff Francouer: He forgot how to lead like a veteran and also hit like a young man.

#12 Mike Moustakas: You shouldn't be cheered on by fans for having a name which vaguely sounds like an animal, very bush league.
 
#13 Alices Escobar: Not much to blame here, but I'd trade you back for Mike Aviles and Zack Greinke; a true ace and a shortstop good enough for the Red Sox, any other takers?

#14 Tim Collins: Sorry, but one bad outing is all it takes, loss #3 of 9 (the bench clearing game) has your fingerprints all over it.

#15 Billy Butler: Singles just aren't good enough, neither are double plays on 3-0 counts.

#16 Louis Coleman: You were called up specifically because we didn't have enough scapegoats.

#17 Brayan Pena: Almost without fault, but I'm blaming you for the Kelvin Herrera pitch selection today...

#18 Kelvin Herrera: 100 mph fastballs go fast in the other direction too.

#19 Yuni: Your fielding range was cited as one of the scapegoats for Luke Hochevar's game. Also, the fact that you're leading off for the Royals is some seriously damaging evidence that it is most certainly not "Our Time."

#20 Jason Burgeois: You being our right handed "bat" off the bench clearly says not "Our Time."

#21 Mitch Maier: Sorry Mitchy, but Mitch Maier starting CF = NOT "Our Time."

#22 Chris Getz: Getting beat out by Yuni makes it pretty clear that "your time" is nearing an end.

#23 Jose Mijares: A lefty specialist isn't much good when you have to use him to eat innings because your starting rotation thinks five innings is a complete game. Less a scapegoat than a symptom.

#24 Everett Teaford: Long relief is set-up to fail, it can only lead to being a scapegoat.

#25 Jeremy Jeffress: How's this for a vote of confidence; Hey, Jeremy, I know we sent you down to the minors about a year ago for walking too many hitters, but why don't you take another crack at the pen because...well...you're our last resort.

#26 Danny Duffy: Seriously Danny? You mean you're not ready to throw 130+ pitch complete games and out duel Justin Verlander, we need more.

#27 Bruce Chen: Just stop it already. We're just not good for each other.  Some team has to need you come trade deadline. We'll all say our good byes and move on, it's for the best.

#28 Ned Yost: Dayton Moore hired Ned based on his Craigslist ad which read: PROFESSIONAL SCAPEGOAT FOR HIRE. Ned has yet to make the right move even once this year and will be fired one year from today, mark it down.

#29 The Royals Marketing Department: Do you have any idea how many "Our Time" jokes are out there? Really? You know you made us do this, right? You couldn't possibly have had the foresight to see this one coming? 26 years of evidence wasn't enough, you thought you were going to reverse all of that with a slogan? Not really working working for Sterling Cooper Draper Pryce, are you?

#30 Dayton Moore: Oh yeah, it's your turn. Do you realize that today a pitcher you let go for nothing pitched a perfect game? And the Boston Red Sox have a starting SS hitting .300 for whom you got 23 ABs out of Yamico Navarro last year and a wad of cash. The Cubs have a leadoff hitter with a .400 OBP and we have Vinny Mazzaro, and Frenchy's sub .300 OBP. And to top it off the SF Giants have an everyday outfielder hitting over .300 and we have Jonathan Sanchez. You really know how to pick' em Dayton. Okay maybe that was a bit harsh, but this is no time for praising the GM of a team on a nine game losing streak.

Deep breath, happy thoughts, it's all a bad dream, right? No, the Royals are in a bad place right now and I have no idea how it could possibly get worse, but it very well could and that's the scariest part of all. I believe that extreme pessimism is the logical takeaway from a nine game losing streak like this one, but if we win nine in a row I'm getting "Our Time" tattooed on my...

The Start: the good, the bad and the ugly

Three wins and three losses on the road; two wins against one of the best teams and then two painful losses against one of the worst. And top it off by getting swept at home by your division rival while giving up 32 runs in three games. These are your 2012 KC Royals. Well, lets hope not. So far there have already been some pretty big stumbles on the road to success for these young Royals, lets take a look at the good, the bad and the ugly...

Hitting

The Good: There hasn't been anything really great about the lineup so far other than some unexpected hot starts by secondary players. The one exception might be Butler; his 5 2Bs and 2 HRs hopefully indicate that he's getting closer to that .900+ OPS level that really separates him from a David Ortiz. It's wouldn't take much, if just a few more of those off-the-wall doubles and warning track flyouts make it over the fence Billy could easily be a 40 2B 30 HR player. Oh yeah, kudos to Getzie, YUNI and Humberto on their respective hot starts.

The Bad: Alex Gordon has been off to a slow start, it's probably nothing to get too worked up about, but he needs to pick it up soon. We've already seen way too much Ned Yost line-up tinkering thus far;  Alcides number two, no Getzie, no wait...Frenchy? Obviously the injury to Cain has led to much of this, but Yost just loves to unnecessarily play with his line-ups. For the love of God just pick one and give it a week! Also, I much prefer the Hosmer of opening weekend to the one from this past week, but even his outs are more enjoyable to watch than most.

The Ugly: Lorenzo Cain's  terrible start and subsequent placement on the DL were not the way any of us wanted to see the year begin. It would be nice to see the same person in CF from year to year, but I have the feeling we're going to be playing the Bubba Starling waiting game for the next few years. Centerfield is such a difficult position to lock down. Obviously I'm not giving up on Lorenzo, but I was really looking forward to him being there everyday when the year started, after all I've seen what Mitch Maier can do.

Starting Rotation

The Good: Bruce Chen is an ACE! Well maybe not quite yet. But he's proven those ugly numbers he put up in spring training were all just a product of the thin desert air, hopefully. I still don't understand how he can get out Albert Pujols, but maybe the secret will be revealed one day in his must read tell all book. And lets not forget about Danny Duffy, it's just one start, but he really is the only thing worth getting excited about in the entire Royals starting rotation.

The Bad: Jonathan Sanchez, in two starts he's gone 7.2 innings, walked 7 and given up 7 ERs. Not exactly the production we were hoping to see from him. For the Royals to surprise anyone this year he needed to have an exceptional year, and so far we haven't seen anything which would lead us to believe that he's headed for a breakout year.

The Ugly: It doesn't get much uglier than this. Yes, it was one of those innings where everything went wrong, but still we've seen Hochevar post way too many of these types of innings. Would anyone really be that upset if Teaford got a few starts? Is it really any less likely that he could be the #3 starter we all had hoped Hochevar could be? We spend way too much time kicking people when they're down here at the PBR, but unless someone really steps up in the minors, the Royals will need to go out and get an ace (see Cincinatti, Cleveland, New York, Washington, Arizona, etc.). It was asking too much for Hoch to be that guy, but if they want to make the "Our Time" slogan more believable than the classic "Juntos Podemos" slogan from Tony Pena, they're really going to need a boost to the rotation.

Bullpen

The Good: The quantity is certainly here, however no one has been without their faults so far. But the sheer amount of quality arms is what is so impressive. Watching Kelvin Herrera blow 102 mph fastballs by hitters yesterday and knowing that he's the fourth or fifth man in the bullpen makes this team fun to watch.

The Bad: During the Cleveland series we saw what happens to bullpens when their starters can't make it to the fifth inning. If this keeps happening, no amount of hard throwers will be able to withstand the damage done to their overworked arms.

The Ugly: It can't possibly get much uglier than this. Despite piling up a nice amount of strikeouts the ERAs for the relievers have been pretty high. As a result, the Royals' pen has not held leads or kept the game close this year, i.e. their job. This is one ugly which can turn around quickly, but this is supposed to be one of our strengths so if it doesn't this year could stay bad for 153 more games.

Team

The Good:  It's early. That's really about all I've got. I could tell you that the team has been "resilient" or "tough" or they've "kept trying" or any number of things, but I'll leave that to Yostie.

The Bad:  Our new TV announcer (no need to beat a dead horse), our record, the fact that Tigers are really good, basically everything. I'm still a believer, but so far nothing has changed.

The Ugly:  The Cleveland series, with an exclamation mark. Ugly defense, ugly pitching, ugly luck, ugly breaks, ugly fights and ugly swings equal a very ugly result. It's hard to stay positive after this one, and by the way...

Up next is Justin Verlander and the Tigers. Just the kind of game you want when trying to turn things around.

The Cactus Defense

Nobody said defending the Cactus league would be easy, but let's catch-up on what's happening down there in Surprise, AZ.

Chen and Sanchez have sucked: I had wanted to kill the subject of Dayton Moore's offseason starting pitcher aquisitions, but I just can't let it go. I realize that spring training stats are to be taken with a huge grain of salt, but these two have had really bad stat lines thus far and I'm starting to worry this won't stop once the season rolls around. If both of these experiments go wrong, we've got some serious problems. Don't forget that these were two of the three "locks" to make the rotation, per Yosty. I'm not sure if this is really something to panic about yet, but we might have to readjust our upside hopes for Jonathan Sanchez.

No, you're not dreaming: This was some breaking news that has sent hard core Royals bloggers tail-spinning through the three stages of grief. We started to see it happening, and we denied it. Then it was confirmed, and we spun into depression. Now we must simply cope with the fact that YUNI might get more at-bats than we had originally hoped. But lets face it, this is due to the fact that for all of the Royals' prospects, they simply do not have one at 2B. Most teams would have chosen EITHER Chris Getz or Yuniesky Betancourt before spring training, but not the Royals. We needed to have both of these guys in camp in order to cloud the fact that Giavotella should be given the chance to lose the job for at least a half season. Getzie and Yuni have already lost their respective jobs at least once, but the charitable Dayton Moore is giving one last chance to the guy who hasn't hit a home run in two years and the guy who hasn't had an OBP of .300 since 2008. I have to believe that the $3 mil going to those two could have netted you something more useful.

The Duffman impresses: For three innings Danny Duffy looked like the pitcher the Royals desperately need him to be. Forget the fact that he followed it up with a less impressive stat line, Duffy might be the most important starting pitcher on the staff. If the Royals have a potential #1 starter, it's Duffy. Here is a much, much more detailed analysis of the start and potential Duffy possesses. That the Royals need a front end starter is no surprise, but Duffy becoming Cole Hamels could be the difference between battling for 3rd place with the Indians or 1st place with the Tigers.

The hitters are hitting (mostly): Hosmer, Butler, Gordon and even Cain have all been hitting well this spring. Moose, Frenchy and Giavotella not so much. However, I would argue that those first four are much more important the others. We know that scoring runs wasn't the Royals' problem last year and hopefully we can expect more of the same this year. It will be interesting to see who are the Royals' fourth and fifth best hitters this year, but if the top three aren't Butler, Hosmer and Gordon in some order, something probably went wrong.

Dayton's ink: I think Dayton Moore got so tired of negotiating with Alex Gordon and his agent that he went straight to the two people most likely to sign long-term team friendly contracts. Enter Sal Perez and Acides Escobar and their multi-year deals. These deals have been roundly praised and have such little down side that they might be the two best contracts signed in the history of the organization. If you can lock up a SS and catcher for several years to come and part with less money than you'll be paying your closer next year, there isn't much for even your biggest critics to say. Unfortunately, it took about one week for the Royals to see the only thing that could possibly go wrong. This sucks, a lot!

The wild card: Luis Mendoza just won't go away. From bullpen failure to possible rotation candidate, I have no idea where to come down on this situation. Barring an injury, I'm not sure where he fits in, other than long relief. But then again, I wouldn't mind seeing the guy get a few starts on the off chance he's unlocked some potential which was hidden deep down in the depths of that right arm. Most likely this is nothing more than a nice spring training redemption story, but you just never know. The fact that something has to go wrong for another pitcher is the only thing keeping me from getting on the Mendoza band wagon.

More bad news: This is just plain sad. We thought he was our Mariano, but now the future of the closer formerly know as the Mexicutioner is in serious trouble. Even though we have some good replacement options, Joakim's injury is a real downer to start the season.

Ah, the ups and downs of spring training. Lets hope the Royals are getting the bad luck out of the way early because we're one more big injury away from really having to hit the panic button.  

The PBR Oscars

Pretty soon Brad Pitt and George Clooney will look good wearing expensive tuxedos, LOTS of people will be thanked, at least one person will cry and we'll all watch on as the Academy Awards are handed out to random people for work on movies we've never seen or awards that never should have been invented. Then, finally, we'll get to see the awards for best actor, movie and director. Here at the PBR we'll dispense with all of that and just go straight to the most important awards...

Best Actor: Unlike the real Oscars, the Royals actually had two very strong candidates for this years award. Alex Gordon played the forgotten local hero, who had been cast out and now comes back to regain the hearts and minds of the people who had written him off. While Melky Cabrera played the new comer with A Lot of baggage (about 30 lbs.) who had to win over the people with an outstanding performance. Both exceeded expectations and put together two great performances, which in any other year might have made them locks for the award. Alas, someone has to take home the award. Both of these actors showed tons of promise early on by becoming breakout teenage stars, however something happened in their mid 20s and they started taking on roles not meant for them. Alex was miscast as the next Brad Pitt (George Brett) for years and this year he finally was able to shed those lofty expectations and settle for the next Jeff Bridges, reliable but not so unattainable. Similarly, Melky had high expectations placed on him as the next Bernie Williams on the big stage in New York, that did not happen and he ended up down-and-out in Hot Lanta doing cameos as the villan on CSI Miami episodes. It strikes me that Melky should take home the award due to the degree of difficulty in his turn around, Gordon's performance was technically better, but Melky's was more surprising and grittier. Alex's role was about like a Tom Hanks performance, while Melky's was more like the indie actor who never had a shot. And the award goes to...Alex Gordon.

No surprise here, there just wasn't enough support for Melky and Alex's movie was the higher grossing, studio film tear jerker that the voters really can get behind. Congrats to Alex! Hopefully he profusely thanks Kevin Sitzer.

My Prediction for the real Oscars:  Brad Pitt for Moneyball in a shocker.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role: Eric Hosmer, and it's not even close. This is a classic best supporting actor win for Hosmer in that he stole the show but was only limited from the best actor category due to his service time. Next year he'll be up there with Pitt and Clooney, but he had to go through the supporting category first. Hosmer's win this year is something akin to Heath Ledger's win for Dark Knight or Javier Bardem's for No County because it was so impossible that it could go to anyone else. His performance in the second half of last season will literally bring people to the ball bark this season. It was the sort of role the Royals have been patiently waiting to be filled; Beltran and Damon came close, Sweeney for about two years, Gordon couldn't do it until it was too late, if you thought Angel Berroa was going to do it you were crazy, Billy Butler doesn't quite have it, Grienke came very close for one season, but Hosmer is the guy who actually makes other teams  jealous. And we've got him for six years. Keep your fingers crossed.

My Prediction for the real Oscars:  Jonah Hill for Moneyball in a shocker.

Best Director: Another easy one. Jeff Francouer!!! After spending the last few seasons directing TV commercials after failing to live up to his next-big-thing hype. Francouer was signed by producer Dayton Moore to direct the uber feel good rom com of long time losers finally turning things around. His comedy routine is pretty, well, routine. However, if you smash enough pies in peoples faces, make enough "great win for the team" post game speeches, get your own fan club, and just smile for the camera A LOT, sometimes it works. The PBR does not see Jeff Francouer turning into Peter Jackson and directing the next great trilogy, but Dayton needed the veteran presence/leader type to carry his young team into the future and whatever you (I) may think of Dayton, he's earned the right to choose Francouer as the Director.  

My Prediction for the real Oscars:  Whoever directed Moneyball, despite not being nominated.

Best Actress: Chris Getz. I'm sorry Chris, but I had to. In 604 career ABs with the Royals you've yet to hit a home run. People get called a "Sally" for much less than that in little league.

My Prediction for the real Oscars:  Were there any females in Moneyball?

Best Actress in a Supporting Role:  Luke Hochevar. No, this is really the year he turns it around. Well you never know, here's hoping that he's this year's Alex Gordon and not Kyle Davies. But another +5.00 ERA and I'm done, and so should be Dayton.

My Prediction for the real Oscars:  Brad Pitt's daughter in Moneyball?
 
Contratulations to everyone, enjoy your statues and here's to Spring Training games in the near future!

Would that it were

Barring any last minute Dayton Moore head scratchers, the Royals have had a pretty tame offseason. We're all expecting that Alex Gordon contract extension, but it probably won't get any of us too excited. However, the seemingly harmless signings (mostly REsignings) and trades from this offseason present us with some interesting "what if" scenarios after a second look. Hopefully this will give you some food for thought until we can analyze the Gordon extension, spring training or Dayton's controversial signing of a back-up DH. Anyway, would you rather have....

Melky Cabrera in RF this season and $7.5 million next season or Frenchy for those two years? I'm hopefully going to be moving on to bigger battles than the Jeff Francoer signing, but for now this is a legitimate question and one which will help to judge Dayton Moore's talent evaluation radar. So far he's held onto his biggest prospect trading chip in Wil Meyers, but if he dominates this season - as expected - his progression is completely blocked by Frenchy and his $7.5 million salary in 2013. My hope is that Dayton is still eyeing a big trade with Meyers as the center piece when the Royals are ready to contend. But if Frenchy is hitting .250 in 2013 and taking playing time away from SUPER DUPER PROSPECT Wil Meyers, then I'm going to write a super nasty blog post all about it (gotta love internet anonymity). Granted the Jonathan Sanchez trade would not have happened, but we'll get to that.

The above scenario plus no Bruce Chen. Under this scenario you get $10 mil this year (Chen + Sanchez, Cabrera and Frenchy are a push) and $12 next season (Bruce + Frenchy) to make a run at a free agent starter? What does 2 years and $20+ mil get you? Maybe Roy Oswalt? Half of Yu Darvish's posing fee? Edwin Jackson and Oswalt? The answer is not entirely clear this year because Sanchez and Chen are might be a better bet than those options, but it's hard to believe the $12 mil in 2013 wouldn't be more useful elsewhere. And let's face it, if a top 5 farm system can't replace the production of Frenchy and Chen by 2013, then the team has probably failed miserably. As it stands now, we have the two best locker room pranksters in the biz for two more years and $22 mil. These contracts are not unreasonable, and have a little upside, but still that is some decent coin which could have been thrown at a starter. The point is more that the Royals really had no pressing need to fill these holes, especially not in 2013; if Myers isn't as good as Frenchy by 2013 something went wrong, dido on Mike Montgomery (or someone else) surpassing Chen. Next year the Royals will start to have some fairly high salaries (Butler, Gordon, Soria, etc.) so let's hope that $12 mil won't prevent us from getting a real difference maker when the time is right.

Chen for two years and $9 mil or Jeff Francis and no guaranteed money. This one surprised me. Jeff Francis has had more prior success, is younger and was healthier in 2011. However, he had to take a minor league deal from the Reds while Chen parlayed 25 starts last year into a nice little 2-year contract. Sure his ERA was higher and he didn't have that sparkling win-loss record, but Francis pitched in more games and piled on more innings and stayed off the DL. This is less about the Royals, but I just don't see how that adds up, it seems like a great backup plan and the Reds might get 200 innings for next to nothing. But then again, they they don't get moments like this one.

Bruce Chen for two years or Edwin Jackson for one? In fairness, when Bruce Chen signed Jackson and Scott Boras still thought he was getting 5 years and $80 mil. Now this happened. It was an interesting fall from a starter with so much experience, but a rotation featuring Sanchez, Jackson, Hochevar, Paulino and Duffy has some real upside. The Royals could have had this and not been out a prospect or even very much money, but I digress. I promise this is the last I mention Bruce Chen in this post.

Alex Gordon or Zack Greinke? I don't know where this is coming from, but committing big money to Gordon might mean no big free agent contracts for a couple of years and obviously Greinke coming back is not very likely. Still $50 mil to Gordon isn't exactly the safest bet in the world based on past performance. However, the safe and relatively modest contract extensions like the one Gordon would get usually work out better in the end than $100+ mil to a free agent pitcher. Here's a more intriguing question; would the Royals 2012 season be a lot more promising if they had never traded Greinke? What if you take the current team, put Jarrod Dyson in CF and Marco Scutaro at SS? With Greinke at the top of the rotation, you can really start to believe in this team contending now. Colorado got Scutaro for basically nothing and as good as Escobar is on defense I don't think you lose anything by essentially swapping him for Dyson; elite defensive CF for elite defensive SS, neither of whom can hit? If only Greinke had known we were just a Greinke away from contending in 2012!

Being an internet GM is fun, especially in February. GM Dayton Moore did not sign Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols, Yu Darvish or even Edwin Jackson. He stayed pretty calm this offseason and seems to be in a wait-and-see mode for 2012. I think he wants badly to be in it at the deadline to make a big trade that will get the Royals to the playoffs for the first time in 26 years. However, the team may have taken a big step back by doing so little this offseason. The Tigers made their move, the AL West is stacked at the top, the East may have four teams better than the Royals and is this going to change anytime soon? It's not that far-fetched that one of the White Sox, Twins or Indians could turn it around.  The way I see it the Royals could have stepped up this year and made themselves heard, but opted for the safe plays all around. Let's hope it works out.

 

2012

Apologies to the legions of PBR fans who've been waiting patiently for more cutting edge offseason analysis. However, we've literally been speechless since Christmas came early and Dayton put a big lump of Yuniesky Betancourt under our tree. Spring training is right around the corner and the Royals are preparing to head off for the sunshine of Arizona hoping to defend their Cactus League title with a group of young homegrown talent (and Yuni, Frenchy and Cheny too). So what has Moore done this offseason in preparation for the most promising season in recent memory?

Step 1: Make the safe but smart trade for possible rotation help. The Melky for Sanchez flip was classic Dayton. He rebuilt Melky's career, looked smart in doing so, and pounced on the opportunity to turn him into a big upside starting pitcher. This trade needs little review; it had to be done. You had to get rid of Cain or Cabrera this offseason or face the same consequence of letting one of the pieces of the Grienke deal rot away in AAA. This was a good use of Cabrera and now we get to find out what, if anything, we've got in Lorenzo Cain. We just have to keep our fingers crossed and hope Sanchez has another good season left in his left arm.

Step 2: Pretend you are willing to trade your young prospects for big name starting pitchers. Latos, Gonzalez and Cahill went for varying degrees of prospect hauls, and the Royals were rumored to be "interested" in all of them. However, Dayton and/or the Royals just aren't there yet. The Melky/Sanchez trade allowed Dayton to stand his ground and horde his prospects for a rainy day. I wanted to see the big trade, but maybe they're still a year away, who knows? The bottom line is that this surprised NO ONE!

Step 3: Take the most obvious route possible and re-sign BRUCE CHEN. It's hard for me to get worked up about this since I've been wrong on Chen for two consecutive years, and you have to agree with the consensus that he has the "good clubhouse guy" thing down. But at the very least this was unnecessary. Again, it's the safe play and there is very little chance of it backfiring, but Tim Tebow is more likely to be starting game two of a playoff series for the Royals than B Chen. On the flip side if he goes 10-10 and eats 200 innings this year, it's another win for Dayton.

Step 4: Take a flyer on a once great closer beaten down by arm injuries. On the face of it, signing Jonathan Broxton is just plain stupid. The Royals have plenty of bullpen arms. However, deep down it's really the same as signing Jeff Francouer or Melky Cabrera last year; if it works great, if not nobody is hurt.

Step 5: Take away from on the field issues by forcing out your TV announcer; a beloved franchise figure and community leader. Oh yeah, this was Fox Sports...of course Dayton had no part in it. Who knows what to believe in this story? Frank was most definitely not Vin Scully, but I might be listening to the radio broadcasts a lot more this season.

Step 6: Yuni Redux! Dayton proves to everyone that he is completely oblivious. He voluntarily shows the league that he is willing to be the butt of all jokes by getting his main man Yuni back on the squad. Here's how it happened: Grienke wants out, the Brewers want Grienke, Dayton forces them to take Yuni as part of the trade and offers $1 mil as a good faith gesture. Royals fans rejoice and Dayton looks smart. Now, fast forward to this offseason, the Royals need a utility infielder and here's why: Mike Aviles was slightly disgruntled last season and got traded to Boston for Yamico Navarro (a younger Aviles), BUT it turns out that Navarro doesn't mesh well with Frenchy and Dayton's good-guy clubhouse. Dayton ships him off for cash, then the Royals realize that Chris Getz is not a good fit for the back-up 3B/SS job. Next, they are rumored for weeks to be in on every has-been back-up infielder on the market.  Enfin, Dayton shocks the world by signing the only one who no one expected and who is not actually a back-up infielder. Yes, the same one who one year ago Dayton had paid $1 mil for him NOT to be on his team. This is the logic of Dayton Moore. By completely mishandling Mile Aviles (the perfect back-up infielder) he winds up paying $2 mil (twice as much) for an inferior, historically less productive, infamously inept, and completely inexplicable option. I can't wait to write more about it, it's Royals blogging gold!

Step 7: Make a perfectly good signing of a lefty specialist. Tim Collins is not that guy. Jose Mijares is. He costs less than $1 mil. Ned Yost will make lots of trips to the mound and need Tommy John surgery on his left arm from calling for Mijares. He will have 81 appearances and pitch 30 innings. This is the second best offseason move, but there wasn't a lot of competition.        

Step 8: Breaking news as Dayton's bargain shopping continues with the signing of Kevin Kouzmanoff. If he's only worth a minor league deal, how is Yuni worth $2mil???????????????????????????????????

Step 9: Sign Roy Oswalt, trade Hochevar.

Step 10: Wait for Prince Fielder's price to drop. Sign him, trade Hosmer and Wil Myers to Seattle for Felix Hernadez and win the AL Central for the next 5 years. Being a GM is so simple a blogger could do it.
 
Okay so the PBR filled in those last two Steps, but if Dayton does anything we can be sure that it is either going to be completely predictable or completely nonsensical. You know Kevin Kouzmanoff is not going to be the last of Dayton Moore this offseason. Will he resign Jose Guillen to platoon with Alex Gordon or will he resign Jason Kendall to be the be third string catcher? There is surely one more surprise left in Dayton before he heads off to Surprise, AZ.