This has been quite a week for Zack Greinke; first he gets name dropped on the Simpsons, now he is officially on the trading block and figures to have his name mentioned in trade rumors from now until the season starts and it's his 27th birthday today (happy b-day). How are we supposed to react to this news; depression, curiosity, excitement, anger, joy, just what exactly could Zack Greinke trade talk bring to a Royals fan? As it turns out, this is actually one of the best examples of baseball trade game theory that you can come up with and the Royals will, presumably, have the opportunity to weigh many offers from other teams in an attempt to make the correct decision on what to do with Zack. Lets try to over analyze this thing to death:
Timing: A big factor in how to play this game is the timing of the decision as to when it is best to pull the trigger. As others have pointed out, the decision to put his name out there now could be that in this year's free agent market there is Cliff Lee and then no one (think Bruce Chen multi-year deal). Also, the fact that Cliff Lee is out there points to just how valuable Zack is, from 2008-2010 they have almost identical values; while Zack hasn't shown the ability to annihilate teams in the postseason like Lee, Lee is the only one to miss significant time due to injury during that time period and Zack is 5 years younger. So essentially you get someone as valuable as Cliff Lee, but you save $120-$150 MILLION and only give-up a few 20-year-old minor league players who may or may not pan out. Also the fact that Greinke is so cheap means that almost everyone except for the Pirates (and whomever isn't on his no-trade clause) will be able to make offers, whereas if you gamble that he will be the same Zack next year and wait to make the deal until next season's trade deadline when some teams have already been eliminated you don't have the same field to choose from. Basically, you can survey the top minor league players in almost every organization in baseball and say you want A,B,C, D and let the games begin. In the Lee sweepstakes it will be 2 or 3 teams bidding against each other for something that they can't help but to overpay for. However, in the Greinke trade talks the respective teams will most likely have similar chances of the payoff working out in their favor; the Royals will have more upside, but but an equally great downside, ie all prospects bust. Meanwhile, the other team will take less risk by getting a valuable proven, young player for two years at a good price, but they may give up a pair of good young players that would have cost nothing and Zack doesn't lead their team to the playoffs over the next two seasons. But this is the dilemma; do you hold on to Zack and hope that he can fill some seats next season and/or be worth the same or more at next year's deadline or do you get max value for him now and hope that the players pan-out. Forgetting about the risk for injury, which is most likely the only thing that would make him worth significantly less next summer, you have to ask how much more is Zack worth now as opposed to during the season? How much will it adversely affect the current team and fans? And, most importantly, can we actually get what he is worth?
Zack's Value: In terms of what the haul should be, this is really a difficult question and extremely difficult to quantify because of what the Royals will presumably be looking for. In all likelihood the Royals will not be looking for another proven star or semi-star player, this would be the only fair way to evaluate the true worth of Greinke; lets just say the Royals could get a proven position player at about half Greinke's value but at 1/3 of the cost and then another cheap 5th starter or a solid prospect, but also the least likely to happen. Going around the league and looking for these types of combinations would be fun and I'm sure you could find one on just about every baseball team (check out this proposal for example). However, I imagine that the Royals are looking to really cash in on big time prospects who are ready to hit the big leagues, but who will also be making the league min for a few years. This is where it gets cloudy when trying to determine what he's really worth: is it two big-time prospects plus three other mid grade prospects, is it one super big-time prospect, a good prospect and two mid-graders, is it two super big-timers and another marginal guy??? This goes back to the first point about timing and judging if he is actually worth that extra prospect now as opposed to next July, which is almost impossible to surmise. You could break down all of the Cliff Lee trades and see what his worth was, but most of the results of those trades are still out to jury, although you could look at what the Rangers gave up this deadline and say that Zack will still be worth a top level prospect even a year and a half from now. When dealing with prospects you will always find yourself in this situation and the goal is really to give yourself a 60/40 advantage, no matter who the prospect is there will still be a great chance for them to fail, so you need to get several in order to cut those chances down, but the more you take the less you will get on the high end. This is Cy young winner, 27-year-old Zack Greinke we are talking about, but then again he is just one man and through the last three seasons of his greatness the Royals have never come close to a .500 season.
If the PBR controlled the Royals: So now its the offseason and we get to play GM, which is after all is why we would waste all of this time over a seemingly unanswerable question (or pointless, depending on your viewpoint). The bottom line is that Zack is too valuable, in terms of prospects, to trade right now. If Zack could bring in two major league ready pitchers right now and another prospect or a couple of proven, cheap, position players then it might be wise to pull the trigger and add quality depth. As it stands the Royals are in a somewhat enviable position of being able to almost completely dismiss the 2011 season as a Spring, Summer and early Fall Training camp, they are stacked with players for next season - not good ones, but ones that deserve a shot at showing how mediocre and below average they are and then you can begin the real youth movement after the all-star game and look forward to the 2012 all-star game at The K. Zack will always be worth top prospects, just how many is not really that important because all of them have, more or less, the same opportunity to fail so you're gambling with the predictability of the success of 20-year-old kids (not an exact science). If you wait until next season you might lose one good one or a couple of decent ones, but if it is prospects you need then you will get them. Plus it gives you the advantage of being able to see what Zack's worth is to the club, maybe things fall in to place and the Royals can make a run at .500 and Zack gets his Cy-young back (which might make him worth more) and the seats fill up at the K and he gets to have a farewell tour as Royal or pledge his allegiance to the club for their forthcoming glory years. Also, lets say that on the off chance the Royals suck again next year and for example DeJesus gets traded and/or Alex Gordon is a total bust, then you can know that what you need is an impact corner outfielder and take the best one in baseball because some other team is desperate to make the playoffs.
Right now it just seems anti-climactic to trade Greinke, unless you want to turn him into a pair of proven players, there doesn't seem to be a real advantage to shipping him off now versus next summer. Getting a haul of prospects now just doesn't feel right, if you are tired of babying Zack and want to move on then take the best two proven major league players available, but don't give us more prospects. Also, from a selfish perspective, we want to seem him pitch in a Royals uniform again. However, this should add some excitement to an offseason that was shaping up to be the most boring in the history of the Royals.
Thursday, October 21, 2010
Wednesday, October 6, 2010
25 years and counting
The Royals last and final game of the year might have been as bad of a way to end a season as is humanly possible, but of course that is the way you expect it to go down if you've watched these guys all year. Now it's all over but the shouting...so lets shout:
Top 10 complaints about the 2010 Royals
1. The more things change, the more they stay the same. As I rejoiced at the departure of unwanted veterans from S. Pods to J. Kendall and finally Lil' Wil Bloomquist, I saw a team that I did actually want to win and could root for, but in the end they just didn't have it. We're all hoping that this is the start of new era in KC Royals baseball and now that those past 25 years are out of the way we'll be playing at this time of the year, or at least waiting until this time of the year to talk about the Chiefs and College football.
2. Pitchers with ERAs north of 5.50:
That is A LOT of names, while some pitched more than others, this is just too long of a list with way too many crooked ERAs. It was a very bad year for Royals pitching, with the one exception of Joakim Soria, no one gets a free pass; Zach should have been better and slightly less apathetic about his plight, Hochevar needs to make 30 starts and just the fact that we are talking about needing to resign Bruce Chen is not a good sign. Stability is a fairly good indicator of how your pitching staff is doing and looking back at some of those names you can trace our season's failure through a lineage of failed relievers and spot starters and get a picture of how bad the year was for this group.
3. "The Player Who Wouldn't Go Away: The Jose Guillen Saga" Watching this unfold was like watching your least favorite movie of all time, while someone scratches their nails on a chalk board and at the same time a landscaping crew is running multiple weed eaters and leaf blowers outside the window. You just wanted it to end, Jose is another in a long history of bad free agent signings by the Royals and by him having a decent year and the Royals trying everything in their power to trade him, it was just pathetic and became a serious drag on the season in a season that did not lack for reasons not to be interested.
4. Still no power. Since 2005 the Royals have finished, 14th, 14th, 14th,13th,13th and 12th, respectively, in the AL (out of 14) in home runs hit! Give me all of the Bob Costas monologues about great pitchers duels you want, but as a fan I want to see balls flying over the fence, that is from players wearing our jerseys. Jose Guillen played his last game for the Royals on August 4th and in two full months no one could overtake him as the team's home run leader, it took an unprecedented late season charge by Yuni just to tie him. Blame it on the stadium, the players or whatever just give us a few guys on the team who pitchers have to take seriously at the plate.
5. The 2010-2011 offseason. At least before we could sit around and talk about who we could get in the offseason, who we should trade or wait around to ridicule whatever decision was made by management. However, this year will probably be different and if the Royals do anything bigger than offer a slew of minor league contracts or resign Bruce Chen, it will be deemed exciting. Not that I'm complaining about not signing anymore Jason Kendalls, but there literally might be nothing to discuss as a Royals fan until opening day 2011.
6. Brian Bannister. He has given us some hope, seems like such a nice guy and we wanted him to be a successful Royals player, but his second half train wreck of a year destroyed all of that and as a result he may no longer be a Royal. Should he be a John Buck-like victim of over inflated arbitration salaries, he will almost certainly go on to be a decent pitcher next year for some other team, ie John Buck. It's a shame, but that's life as a Royals fan.
7. Minors not Majors. Sooooo much talk about the minors this year; yeah it's great to have a bunch of young guys who are highly touted prospects, but who wants to talk about 2012? This was one of the best things to come out of the Royals' organization this year, but until they are our Jason Heywards/Buster Poseys it gets really boring talking about a bunch of 20-year-old kids who dominate the minors.
8. Alex Gordon. He's got one year to figure it out, that's it. Sorry Alex, but this is your last chance and you've been given the benefit of the doubt several times now. You've changed positions, uniform numbers, grown a beard, shaved it, tweaked your batting stance 27 times, failed to live up to George Brett expectations and on top of all of that you promised us that you are going to "dominate" next year. Well...good luck; no injuries, no complaints about pressure, NO EXCUSES, you must at least put-up David Dejesus-like numbers (OPS. around .800) next year or it's a bust.
9. Jason Kendall. This only made number 9 on the list because I'm tired of writing his name, but he wins least productive/exciting player of the year hands down. Get well soon!
10. The Rays, the Twins, the Rockies, the Padres AND the Reds, what's next the Pirates? Sitting around feigning interest in this year's postseason is tough because the aforementioned teams were in the playoff race or made the playoffs and it makes you wonder if they can, why can't we? It's one thing to just dismiss the Yanks, Phils or Red Sox as East-Coast cash machines that buy everything in sight to get to the playoffs, but what do you say about the Padres who did everything in their power to get rid of anyone making above minimum wage. I guess it should serve as hope, but my Royals souvenir mug is always half empty.
Here we stand a quarter of century without playoff baseball in KC and seemingly as far away as ever. Will 2011 be the promise year, the year we see underachievers achieve, the hyped rookies surface at the majors and all live up to expectations, a David DeJesus and the Miracles type season? Or will we be looking forward to the most pathetic, inept group of guys ever assembled on a baseball field? Fortunately, we've got a lot of time to think about it.
Top 10 complaints about the 2010 Royals
1. The more things change, the more they stay the same. As I rejoiced at the departure of unwanted veterans from S. Pods to J. Kendall and finally Lil' Wil Bloomquist, I saw a team that I did actually want to win and could root for, but in the end they just didn't have it. We're all hoping that this is the start of new era in KC Royals baseball and now that those past 25 years are out of the way we'll be playing at this time of the year, or at least waiting until this time of the year to talk about the Chiefs and College football.
2. Pitchers with ERAs north of 5.50:
| ERA ▴ | |
|---|---|
| Josh Rupe | 5.59 |
| Gil Meche | 5.69 |
| Jesse Chavez | 5.88 |
| Sean O'Sullivan | 6.11 |
| Bryan Bullington | 6.12 |
| Brian Bannister | 6.34 |
| Brad Thompson | 6.41 |
| Greg Holland | 6.75 |
| Anthony Lerew | 8.54 |
| Victor Marte | 9.76 |
| Roman Colon | 18.00 |
| Luis Mendoza | 22.50 |
3. "The Player Who Wouldn't Go Away: The Jose Guillen Saga" Watching this unfold was like watching your least favorite movie of all time, while someone scratches their nails on a chalk board and at the same time a landscaping crew is running multiple weed eaters and leaf blowers outside the window. You just wanted it to end, Jose is another in a long history of bad free agent signings by the Royals and by him having a decent year and the Royals trying everything in their power to trade him, it was just pathetic and became a serious drag on the season in a season that did not lack for reasons not to be interested.
4. Still no power. Since 2005 the Royals have finished, 14th, 14th, 14th,13th,13th and 12th, respectively, in the AL (out of 14) in home runs hit! Give me all of the Bob Costas monologues about great pitchers duels you want, but as a fan I want to see balls flying over the fence, that is from players wearing our jerseys. Jose Guillen played his last game for the Royals on August 4th and in two full months no one could overtake him as the team's home run leader, it took an unprecedented late season charge by Yuni just to tie him. Blame it on the stadium, the players or whatever just give us a few guys on the team who pitchers have to take seriously at the plate.
5. The 2010-2011 offseason. At least before we could sit around and talk about who we could get in the offseason, who we should trade or wait around to ridicule whatever decision was made by management. However, this year will probably be different and if the Royals do anything bigger than offer a slew of minor league contracts or resign Bruce Chen, it will be deemed exciting. Not that I'm complaining about not signing anymore Jason Kendalls, but there literally might be nothing to discuss as a Royals fan until opening day 2011.
6. Brian Bannister. He has given us some hope, seems like such a nice guy and we wanted him to be a successful Royals player, but his second half train wreck of a year destroyed all of that and as a result he may no longer be a Royal. Should he be a John Buck-like victim of over inflated arbitration salaries, he will almost certainly go on to be a decent pitcher next year for some other team, ie John Buck. It's a shame, but that's life as a Royals fan.
7. Minors not Majors. Sooooo much talk about the minors this year; yeah it's great to have a bunch of young guys who are highly touted prospects, but who wants to talk about 2012? This was one of the best things to come out of the Royals' organization this year, but until they are our Jason Heywards/Buster Poseys it gets really boring talking about a bunch of 20-year-old kids who dominate the minors.
8. Alex Gordon. He's got one year to figure it out, that's it. Sorry Alex, but this is your last chance and you've been given the benefit of the doubt several times now. You've changed positions, uniform numbers, grown a beard, shaved it, tweaked your batting stance 27 times, failed to live up to George Brett expectations and on top of all of that you promised us that you are going to "dominate" next year. Well...good luck; no injuries, no complaints about pressure, NO EXCUSES, you must at least put-up David Dejesus-like numbers (OPS. around .800) next year or it's a bust.
9. Jason Kendall. This only made number 9 on the list because I'm tired of writing his name, but he wins least productive/exciting player of the year hands down. Get well soon!
10. The Rays, the Twins, the Rockies, the Padres AND the Reds, what's next the Pirates? Sitting around feigning interest in this year's postseason is tough because the aforementioned teams were in the playoff race or made the playoffs and it makes you wonder if they can, why can't we? It's one thing to just dismiss the Yanks, Phils or Red Sox as East-Coast cash machines that buy everything in sight to get to the playoffs, but what do you say about the Padres who did everything in their power to get rid of anyone making above minimum wage. I guess it should serve as hope, but my Royals souvenir mug is always half empty.
Here we stand a quarter of century without playoff baseball in KC and seemingly as far away as ever. Will 2011 be the promise year, the year we see underachievers achieve, the hyped rookies surface at the majors and all live up to expectations, a David DeJesus and the Miracles type season? Or will we be looking forward to the most pathetic, inept group of guys ever assembled on a baseball field? Fortunately, we've got a lot of time to think about it.
Saturday, October 2, 2010
PBR's formal apology to Bruce Chen
Dear Mr. Chen,
As the year winds to a close and there is little left to play for on this Royals team, you gave us probably the signature victory of the year. We here at the Powder Blue Room have been skeptical, to say the least, about your presence in the starting rotation from the very beginning and we would just like to say we're sorry. It was never really about YOU, it was more of a product of the disappointment that our team needed to rely on you as one of its best starters, because of the lack of talent, injuries and ineptitude of the other starters, but that is no excuse. I was rooting for you to get that shut out as hard as I've rooted for anything in the 159 games prior to it this year and I highly doubt anything in the next two will surpass it. The PBR had you pegged all wrong and we should have been behind you and not made you into one of the bad guys, because you have most definitely been one of the good guys all along.
Sorry Bruce, you are awesome please accept our apology.
Sincerely,
The Powder Blue Room
As the year winds to a close and there is little left to play for on this Royals team, you gave us probably the signature victory of the year. We here at the Powder Blue Room have been skeptical, to say the least, about your presence in the starting rotation from the very beginning and we would just like to say we're sorry. It was never really about YOU, it was more of a product of the disappointment that our team needed to rely on you as one of its best starters, because of the lack of talent, injuries and ineptitude of the other starters, but that is no excuse. I was rooting for you to get that shut out as hard as I've rooted for anything in the 159 games prior to it this year and I highly doubt anything in the next two will surpass it. The PBR had you pegged all wrong and we should have been behind you and not made you into one of the bad guys, because you have most definitely been one of the good guys all along.
Sorry Bruce, you are awesome please accept our apology.
Sincerely,
The Powder Blue Room
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