Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Dayton ruins Royals' rumor season

After so much talk Dayton just couldn't help himself to a "high upside" starter right out of the gates. This just ruined the next few months of speculating about the Royals involvement in hundreds of trade scenarios throughout the offseason. There was so much potential for the Royals to be the darlings of rumor season with their search for an opening day starter and a wealth of prospects to deal. But in the end Dayton executed his patented Dayton Moore Strike Early Trade. I have to say that I'm a big fan of the trade just for record. However, it still doesn't mean I'm not disappointed that I can't talk about what I think the Royals should and shouldn't do for the next few months.

The fact that I wanted to see Lorenzo Cain starting in center field on opening day has now been realized and with the ancillary benefit of getting a good starter, albeit with a huge asterisk mark. Dayton Moore has loved to trade/sign to get the downtrodden player with upside since day one and this is probably his best yet. Moore struck fools gold with Melky and Frenchy last season and turned it into a starting pitcher and a starting right fielder for the next two years. But this latest move -- along with the assumption that they are mostly done for the offseason -- leads me to believe that Dayton is operating under the prospect hoarding, still one-year-away theory and I'm disappointed. When Dayton declared himself ready to trade prospects for a talented pitcher at the outset of the offseaon it triggered an initial flurry of rumors that had me imagining the Royals with a completely new starting rotation and real hope of contention. But after the dust has settled from this trade, it is still the same old Moore waiting for his beloved prospects to single handily lead charge for the AL Central crown. Melky for Sanchez is about the safest bet in trades Dayton could have made.

Moore's strategy is obviously working but the Royals are still fighting battles and not wars. Is having Jonathan Sanchez in the starting rotation along with Lorenzo Cain in CF going to make the Royals a winner? Not very likely. Would having that along with getting great seasons from Moustakas, Perez, Hosmer, Duffy AND Montgomery? Yes, that might be enough. I guess it is the smart play, but I'm still waiting to see if Moore has the ability to take a big risk. Trading Melky for Sanchez has almost no downside, re-signing Bruce Chen won't hurt you, giving Frenchy a two-year extension can't cripple you and waiting on minor league arms doesn't sink you, but it also doesn't provide you with the immediate satisfaction a long-time Royals fan needs.

I hope the waiting game works, but not dangling your top prospects for real solutions at starting pitcher would just be bad business. Cashing in on minor league talent is the best competitive advantage which the Royals currently have and you never know when the expiration date is on that currency. They are still a winning season away from being taken seriously by quality free agents, and the Jonathan Sanchez trade gets them closer to success if and only if every thing else goes well. It was a good trade, but only if you measure success in terms of baby steps. Dayton, one day you'll have to take big-boy steps. Are we there yet???

Monday, November 21, 2011

26 years and counting...

In case you just came back from a spiritual mission to India and missed the Royals season...they didn't make the playoffs. Yes, again. That makes 26 years, but who's counting? Actually, we here at the Powder Blue Room are counting. So what's the excuse this time? Given that this article is a month behind schedule, we'll keep it short, because you most likely already know the answer.

Pitching: Like the title of a certain Bob Seager song (not the one from the old Chevy truck ads) it was still the same.  Except for the bullpen, except for Joakim Soria. Bruce Chen was still the same, but in a good way. Kyle Davies was still the same, but in a much much worse way. Felipe Paulino was a nice surprise, Jeff Francis was not. Luke Hochevar took some nice steps forward (mainly staying healthy), but they were taken way too late to be of much importance (next, year Hoch!). Teaford looked like he's worth a shot next year but on the other hand Vinny and O'Sullivan look like Omaha lifers. For all of the progress made in the set-up area of the bullpen Joakim had a very bad year and undeniably cost the team wins as the closer. Not to mention that Aaron Crow and Tim Collins really fizzled down the stretch. The two biggest question marks for next season might be if Joakim can reestablish himself as a dominant closer, and if Aaron Crow can transition into an average starter. This would be the best and most efficient way to improve both sides of the pitching without any external moves; and it appears that after the Sanchez trade the Royals are done making big moves in the rotation. As bad as the starting rotation was this year, if we come out of spring training with Sanchez #1, Paulino #2, Hochevar #3, Duffy #4 and Crow/Teaford/Montgomery #5, I'll take it (and so would most Royals fans, I think).

Offense: I have to say that this was actually fun to watch this year. The outfield just didn't stop all year. Seriously, who saw this one coming? Not I said the PBR. Okay one of the three outfielders finally living up to expectations I'd have bought that, two would have moved my skepticism needle into the red, but all three having career years was actually quite impressive/improbable/unbelievable/made-for-TV-movie worthy. Around the infield; Betemit was good and even better for Detroit. Moustakas was good (in September), Escobar was great (for two weeks), Getz doesn't exist to me, nor in any real offensive category. Eric Hosmer made me question my sexual orientation. The catchers weren't bad and then came Sal Perez who caught like Ivan Rodriguez and hit like Mike Piazza, in other words he's a keeper. I miss Mike Aviles, but I'll live. Johnny Giavotella looked great at times and also looked like someone who is 5'8'' trying to hit major league pitching at other times. The Royals 2012 million dollar question is can Lorenzo Cain hit? If the answer to that is yes and everything else stays the course, it should be another fun year watching the Royals hit lots of doubles at the K.

Defense: One step forward, two steps backward. If you just looked at shortstop range and outfield assists then you might come to the conclusion that it was the best ever. But unfortunately for the Royals, centerfielders in Kaufman have to cover a lot of ground. While Melky's offseason weight loss plan worked wonders at the plate, it didn't make him into Willie Mays with the glove. Throw in Alex and Frenchy, and the Royals had three above average corner outfielders trying to cover all three positions and it almost worked. However, the infield is where the real mystery unfolds. Obviously Escobar was great, but he makes up exactly 1/4th of the positions. At second base we had a defensive specialist who just wasn't that special (Getzie) and two offensive specialists that were especially bad with the glove (Giovatella and Aviles). All of that equals not good. At first we had the Golden Boy who looked like Mark Grace to me, but whose numbers looked more like Billy Butler (I'm just as surprised as you). Hosmer, worse than Ryan Howard, really? And third base was probably the biggest defensive black hole the team had; Wilson led the ineptitude, followed closely by Aviles and the jury is still out on Moutsakas (I think he looks terrible just for the record). Then at catcher the Royals pretty much tread water until the last month when Sir Sal came up to demonstrate just exactly how a real catcher is supposed to look behind the plate. If you're looking for 2012 prognostications, this is the easiest place to upgrade. By simply swapping Cain for Melky the Royals have already upgraded a lot. Getting a full season behind the plate from Perez should show up as well, even though it wasn't a black hole. And just by letting Hosmer's correction take effect this should also make them better. Second base isn't so easy, but Escobar can make up for one below average defender. At third, well...surprise me Moose (oh and don't forget to hit 30HRs!). I guess the real question here is do you believe the old football axiom "Defense wins Championships" or did you watch the St. Louis Cardinals hit their way to a World Series?

The Royals have a long way to go in 2012 but for once that distance can be made up without an unrealistic amount of help. The pieces are actually there for once, everything still has to go really well for the Royals, but It's not like believing in Ken Harvey and Jeremy Affelt, is it? I have to say that the odds of stopping the streak at 26 seasons without playoff baseball might be at an all time low in KC.