Pretty soon Brad Pitt and George Clooney will look good wearing expensive tuxedos, LOTS of people will be thanked, at least one person will cry and we'll all watch on as the Academy Awards are handed out to random people for work on movies we've never seen or awards that never should have been invented. Then, finally, we'll get to see the awards for best actor, movie and director. Here at the PBR we'll dispense with all of that and just go straight to the most important awards...
Best Actor: Unlike the real Oscars, the Royals actually had two very strong candidates for this years award. Alex Gordon played the forgotten local hero, who had been cast out and now comes back to regain the hearts and minds of the people who had written him off. While Melky Cabrera played the new comer with A Lot of baggage (about 30 lbs.) who had to win over the people with an outstanding performance. Both exceeded expectations and put together two great performances, which in any other year might have made them locks for the award. Alas, someone has to take home the award. Both of these actors showed tons of promise early on by becoming breakout teenage stars, however something happened in their mid 20s and they started taking on roles not meant for them. Alex was miscast as the next Brad Pitt (George Brett) for years and this year he finally was able to shed those lofty expectations and settle for the next Jeff Bridges, reliable but not so unattainable. Similarly, Melky had high expectations placed on him as the next Bernie Williams on the big stage in New York, that did not happen and he ended up down-and-out in Hot Lanta doing cameos as the villan on CSI Miami episodes. It strikes me that Melky should take home the award due to the degree of difficulty in his turn around, Gordon's performance was technically better, but Melky's was more surprising and grittier. Alex's role was about like a Tom Hanks performance, while Melky's was more like the indie actor who never had a shot. And the award goes to...Alex Gordon.
No surprise here, there just wasn't enough support for Melky and Alex's movie was the higher grossing, studio film tear jerker that the voters really can get behind. Congrats to Alex! Hopefully he profusely thanks Kevin Sitzer.
My Prediction for the real Oscars: Brad Pitt for Moneyball in a shocker.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role: Eric Hosmer, and it's not even close. This is a classic best supporting actor win for Hosmer in that he stole the show but was only limited from the best actor category due to his service time. Next year he'll be up there with Pitt and Clooney, but he had to go through the supporting category first. Hosmer's win this year is something akin to Heath Ledger's win for Dark Knight or Javier Bardem's for No County because it was so impossible that it could go to anyone else. His performance in the second half of last season will literally bring people to the ball bark this season. It was the sort of role the Royals have been patiently waiting to be filled; Beltran and Damon came close, Sweeney for about two years, Gordon couldn't do it until it was too late, if you thought Angel Berroa was going to do it you were crazy, Billy Butler doesn't quite have it, Grienke came very close for one season, but Hosmer is the guy who actually makes other teams jealous. And we've got him for six years. Keep your fingers crossed.
My Prediction for the real Oscars: Jonah Hill for Moneyball in a shocker.
Best Director: Another easy one. Jeff Francouer!!! After spending the last few seasons directing TV commercials after failing to live up to his next-big-thing hype. Francouer was signed by producer Dayton Moore to direct the uber feel good rom com of long time losers finally turning things around. His comedy routine is pretty, well, routine. However, if you smash enough pies in peoples faces, make enough "great win for the team" post game speeches, get your own fan club, and just smile for the camera A LOT, sometimes it works. The PBR does not see Jeff Francouer turning into Peter Jackson and directing the next great trilogy, but Dayton needed the veteran presence/leader type to carry his young team into the future and whatever you (I) may think of Dayton, he's earned the right to choose Francouer as the Director.
My Prediction for the real Oscars: Whoever directed Moneyball, despite not being nominated.
Best Actress: Chris Getz. I'm sorry Chris, but I had to. In 604 career ABs with the Royals you've yet to hit a home run. People get called a "Sally" for much less than that in little league.
My Prediction for the real Oscars: Were there any females in Moneyball?
Best Actress in a Supporting Role: Luke Hochevar. No, this is really the year he turns it around. Well you never know, here's hoping that he's this year's Alex Gordon and not Kyle Davies. But another +5.00 ERA and I'm done, and so should be Dayton.
My Prediction for the real Oscars: Brad Pitt's daughter in Moneyball?
Contratulations to everyone, enjoy your statues and here's to Spring Training games in the near future!
Sunday, February 26, 2012
Thursday, February 9, 2012
Would that it were
Barring any last minute Dayton Moore head scratchers, the Royals have had a pretty tame offseason. We're all expecting that Alex Gordon contract extension, but it probably won't get any of us too excited. However, the seemingly harmless signings (mostly REsignings) and trades from this offseason present us with some interesting "what if" scenarios after a second look. Hopefully this will give you some food for thought until we can analyze the Gordon extension, spring training or Dayton's controversial signing of a back-up DH. Anyway, would you rather have....
Melky Cabrera in RF this season and $7.5 million next season or Frenchy for those two years? I'm hopefully going to be moving on to bigger battles than the Jeff Francoer signing, but for now this is a legitimate question and one which will help to judge Dayton Moore's talent evaluation radar. So far he's held onto his biggest prospect trading chip in Wil Meyers, but if he dominates this season - as expected - his progression is completely blocked by Frenchy and his $7.5 million salary in 2013. My hope is that Dayton is still eyeing a big trade with Meyers as the center piece when the Royals are ready to contend. But if Frenchy is hitting .250 in 2013 and taking playing time away from SUPER DUPER PROSPECT Wil Meyers, then I'm going to write a super nasty blog post all about it (gotta love internet anonymity). Granted the Jonathan Sanchez trade would not have happened, but we'll get to that.
The above scenario plus no Bruce Chen. Under this scenario you get $10 mil this year (Chen + Sanchez, Cabrera and Frenchy are a push) and $12 next season (Bruce + Frenchy) to make a run at a free agent starter? What does 2 years and $20+ mil get you? Maybe Roy Oswalt? Half of Yu Darvish's posing fee? Edwin Jackson and Oswalt? The answer is not entirely clear this year because Sanchez and Chen are might be a better bet than those options, but it's hard to believe the $12 mil in 2013 wouldn't be more useful elsewhere. And let's face it, if a top 5 farm system can't replace the production of Frenchy and Chen by 2013, then the team has probably failed miserably. As it stands now, we have the two best locker room pranksters in the biz for two more years and $22 mil. These contracts are not unreasonable, and have a little upside, but still that is some decent coin which could have been thrown at a starter. The point is more that the Royals really had no pressing need to fill these holes, especially not in 2013; if Myers isn't as good as Frenchy by 2013 something went wrong, dido on Mike Montgomery (or someone else) surpassing Chen. Next year the Royals will start to have some fairly high salaries (Butler, Gordon, Soria, etc.) so let's hope that $12 mil won't prevent us from getting a real difference maker when the time is right.
Chen for two years and $9 mil or Jeff Francis and no guaranteed money. This one surprised me. Jeff Francis has had more prior success, is younger and was healthier in 2011. However, he had to take a minor league deal from the Reds while Chen parlayed 25 starts last year into a nice little 2-year contract. Sure his ERA was higher and he didn't have that sparkling win-loss record, but Francis pitched in more games and piled on more innings and stayed off the DL. This is less about the Royals, but I just don't see how that adds up, it seems like a great backup plan and the Reds might get 200 innings for next to nothing. But then again, they they don't get moments like this one.
Bruce Chen for two years or Edwin Jackson for one? In fairness, when Bruce Chen signed Jackson and Scott Boras still thought he was getting 5 years and $80 mil. Now this happened. It was an interesting fall from a starter with so much experience, but a rotation featuring Sanchez, Jackson, Hochevar, Paulino and Duffy has some real upside. The Royals could have had this and not been out a prospect or even very much money, but I digress. I promise this is the last I mention Bruce Chen in this post.
Alex Gordon or Zack Greinke? I don't know where this is coming from, but committing big money to Gordon might mean no big free agent contracts for a couple of years and obviously Greinke coming back is not very likely. Still $50 mil to Gordon isn't exactly the safest bet in the world based on past performance. However, the safe and relatively modest contract extensions like the one Gordon would get usually work out better in the end than $100+ mil to a free agent pitcher. Here's a more intriguing question; would the Royals 2012 season be a lot more promising if they had never traded Greinke? What if you take the current team, put Jarrod Dyson in CF and Marco Scutaro at SS? With Greinke at the top of the rotation, you can really start to believe in this team contending now. Colorado got Scutaro for basically nothing and as good as Escobar is on defense I don't think you lose anything by essentially swapping him for Dyson; elite defensive CF for elite defensive SS, neither of whom can hit? If only Greinke had known we were just a Greinke away from contending in 2012!
Being an internet GM is fun, especially in February. GM Dayton Moore did not sign Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols, Yu Darvish or even Edwin Jackson. He stayed pretty calm this offseason and seems to be in a wait-and-see mode for 2012. I think he wants badly to be in it at the deadline to make a big trade that will get the Royals to the playoffs for the first time in 26 years. However, the team may have taken a big step back by doing so little this offseason. The Tigers made their move, the AL West is stacked at the top, the East may have four teams better than the Royals and is this going to change anytime soon? It's not that far-fetched that one of the White Sox, Twins or Indians could turn it around. The way I see it the Royals could have stepped up this year and made themselves heard, but opted for the safe plays all around. Let's hope it works out.
Melky Cabrera in RF this season and $7.5 million next season or Frenchy for those two years? I'm hopefully going to be moving on to bigger battles than the Jeff Francoer signing, but for now this is a legitimate question and one which will help to judge Dayton Moore's talent evaluation radar. So far he's held onto his biggest prospect trading chip in Wil Meyers, but if he dominates this season - as expected - his progression is completely blocked by Frenchy and his $7.5 million salary in 2013. My hope is that Dayton is still eyeing a big trade with Meyers as the center piece when the Royals are ready to contend. But if Frenchy is hitting .250 in 2013 and taking playing time away from SUPER DUPER PROSPECT Wil Meyers, then I'm going to write a super nasty blog post all about it (gotta love internet anonymity). Granted the Jonathan Sanchez trade would not have happened, but we'll get to that.
The above scenario plus no Bruce Chen. Under this scenario you get $10 mil this year (Chen + Sanchez, Cabrera and Frenchy are a push) and $12 next season (Bruce + Frenchy) to make a run at a free agent starter? What does 2 years and $20+ mil get you? Maybe Roy Oswalt? Half of Yu Darvish's posing fee? Edwin Jackson and Oswalt? The answer is not entirely clear this year because Sanchez and Chen are might be a better bet than those options, but it's hard to believe the $12 mil in 2013 wouldn't be more useful elsewhere. And let's face it, if a top 5 farm system can't replace the production of Frenchy and Chen by 2013, then the team has probably failed miserably. As it stands now, we have the two best locker room pranksters in the biz for two more years and $22 mil. These contracts are not unreasonable, and have a little upside, but still that is some decent coin which could have been thrown at a starter. The point is more that the Royals really had no pressing need to fill these holes, especially not in 2013; if Myers isn't as good as Frenchy by 2013 something went wrong, dido on Mike Montgomery (or someone else) surpassing Chen. Next year the Royals will start to have some fairly high salaries (Butler, Gordon, Soria, etc.) so let's hope that $12 mil won't prevent us from getting a real difference maker when the time is right.
Chen for two years and $9 mil or Jeff Francis and no guaranteed money. This one surprised me. Jeff Francis has had more prior success, is younger and was healthier in 2011. However, he had to take a minor league deal from the Reds while Chen parlayed 25 starts last year into a nice little 2-year contract. Sure his ERA was higher and he didn't have that sparkling win-loss record, but Francis pitched in more games and piled on more innings and stayed off the DL. This is less about the Royals, but I just don't see how that adds up, it seems like a great backup plan and the Reds might get 200 innings for next to nothing. But then again, they they don't get moments like this one.
Bruce Chen for two years or Edwin Jackson for one? In fairness, when Bruce Chen signed Jackson and Scott Boras still thought he was getting 5 years and $80 mil. Now this happened. It was an interesting fall from a starter with so much experience, but a rotation featuring Sanchez, Jackson, Hochevar, Paulino and Duffy has some real upside. The Royals could have had this and not been out a prospect or even very much money, but I digress. I promise this is the last I mention Bruce Chen in this post.
Alex Gordon or Zack Greinke? I don't know where this is coming from, but committing big money to Gordon might mean no big free agent contracts for a couple of years and obviously Greinke coming back is not very likely. Still $50 mil to Gordon isn't exactly the safest bet in the world based on past performance. However, the safe and relatively modest contract extensions like the one Gordon would get usually work out better in the end than $100+ mil to a free agent pitcher. Here's a more intriguing question; would the Royals 2012 season be a lot more promising if they had never traded Greinke? What if you take the current team, put Jarrod Dyson in CF and Marco Scutaro at SS? With Greinke at the top of the rotation, you can really start to believe in this team contending now. Colorado got Scutaro for basically nothing and as good as Escobar is on defense I don't think you lose anything by essentially swapping him for Dyson; elite defensive CF for elite defensive SS, neither of whom can hit? If only Greinke had known we were just a Greinke away from contending in 2012!
Being an internet GM is fun, especially in February. GM Dayton Moore did not sign Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols, Yu Darvish or even Edwin Jackson. He stayed pretty calm this offseason and seems to be in a wait-and-see mode for 2012. I think he wants badly to be in it at the deadline to make a big trade that will get the Royals to the playoffs for the first time in 26 years. However, the team may have taken a big step back by doing so little this offseason. The Tigers made their move, the AL West is stacked at the top, the East may have four teams better than the Royals and is this going to change anytime soon? It's not that far-fetched that one of the White Sox, Twins or Indians could turn it around. The way I see it the Royals could have stepped up this year and made themselves heard, but opted for the safe plays all around. Let's hope it works out.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)