Win, loose or draw on the Jonathan Broxton trade, The Powder Blue Room would like to issue a small courtesy golf clap for Ned Yost in the spirit of resourcefulness. Everyone has probably heard the story about the hunting trip where Ned, Jeff Francoeur and he-haw funny guy Jeff Foxworthy sent the white tail dear of LaGrange, GA into survival mode. In short, it was a recruiting trip (hunting trip), set up by old Ned, who included his apparent friend Jeff Foxworthy.
Finally, something on the Yankees and Boston in the competitive advantage category. Baseball managers don't get to diagram plays or any of the PlayStation involvement of a football or basketball coach. American League managers don't even get to get involved in the game of double-switch. But Ned apparently got tired of the front office guys hogging all the joey-deal-making fun and set out to get in on the game himself.
But Kansas City has a manager pulling his weight, and quite frankly, we like to see it. The logistics of the signing will be covered in a later post and what effect the hunting trip had on the signing is intangible at best. If you saw the photo of Dayton standing next to Broxton at the press conference what is not intangible are the dimensions of this guy. Whoever built the dear-stand for Team Foxworthy back in LaGrange, probably had to run out and reinforce some of the stand's structural members prior to Mr. Broxton entering the premises. We have not yet received the tapes of the wire-taps we placed in the deer-stand, but we are sure the transcripts will show a highly cultured, literate and dignified set of words spoken amongst the trio. How many times Broxton told Jeff to "tell me a joke" will be part of a future Powder Blue Room poll, so stay tuned.
So kudos to Ned Yost, out there doing the hustle, making things shake where he can. Something tells us that Joe Torre never grabbed a dear rifle and Captain Derek to set out into the forest in hope of luring a player to the Bronx.
Thursday, December 1, 2011
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
Dayton ruins Royals' rumor season
After so much talk Dayton just couldn't help himself to a "high upside" starter right out of the gates. This just ruined the next few months of speculating about the Royals involvement in hundreds of trade scenarios throughout the offseason. There was so much potential for the Royals to be the darlings of rumor season with their search for an opening day starter and a wealth of prospects to deal. But in the end Dayton executed his patented Dayton Moore Strike Early Trade. I have to say that I'm a big fan of the trade just for record. However, it still doesn't mean I'm not disappointed that I can't talk about what I think the Royals should and shouldn't do for the next few months.
The fact that I wanted to see Lorenzo Cain starting in center field on opening day has now been realized and with the ancillary benefit of getting a good starter, albeit with a huge asterisk mark. Dayton Moore has loved to trade/sign to get the downtrodden player with upside since day one and this is probably his best yet. Moore struck fools gold with Melky and Frenchy last season and turned it into a starting pitcher and a starting right fielder for the next two years. But this latest move -- along with the assumption that they are mostly done for the offseason -- leads me to believe that Dayton is operating under the prospect hoarding, still one-year-away theory and I'm disappointed. When Dayton declared himself ready to trade prospects for a talented pitcher at the outset of the offseaon it triggered an initial flurry of rumors that had me imagining the Royals with a completely new starting rotation and real hope of contention. But after the dust has settled from this trade, it is still the same old Moore waiting for his beloved prospects to single handily lead charge for the AL Central crown. Melky for Sanchez is about the safest bet in trades Dayton could have made.
Moore's strategy is obviously working but the Royals are still fighting battles and not wars. Is having Jonathan Sanchez in the starting rotation along with Lorenzo Cain in CF going to make the Royals a winner? Not very likely. Would having that along with getting great seasons from Moustakas, Perez, Hosmer, Duffy AND Montgomery? Yes, that might be enough. I guess it is the smart play, but I'm still waiting to see if Moore has the ability to take a big risk. Trading Melky for Sanchez has almost no downside, re-signing Bruce Chen won't hurt you, giving Frenchy a two-year extension can't cripple you and waiting on minor league arms doesn't sink you, but it also doesn't provide you with the immediate satisfaction a long-time Royals fan needs.
I hope the waiting game works, but not dangling your top prospects for real solutions at starting pitcher would just be bad business. Cashing in on minor league talent is the best competitive advantage which the Royals currently have and you never know when the expiration date is on that currency. They are still a winning season away from being taken seriously by quality free agents, and the Jonathan Sanchez trade gets them closer to success if and only if every thing else goes well. It was a good trade, but only if you measure success in terms of baby steps. Dayton, one day you'll have to take big-boy steps. Are we there yet???
The fact that I wanted to see Lorenzo Cain starting in center field on opening day has now been realized and with the ancillary benefit of getting a good starter, albeit with a huge asterisk mark. Dayton Moore has loved to trade/sign to get the downtrodden player with upside since day one and this is probably his best yet. Moore struck fools gold with Melky and Frenchy last season and turned it into a starting pitcher and a starting right fielder for the next two years. But this latest move -- along with the assumption that they are mostly done for the offseason -- leads me to believe that Dayton is operating under the prospect hoarding, still one-year-away theory and I'm disappointed. When Dayton declared himself ready to trade prospects for a talented pitcher at the outset of the offseaon it triggered an initial flurry of rumors that had me imagining the Royals with a completely new starting rotation and real hope of contention. But after the dust has settled from this trade, it is still the same old Moore waiting for his beloved prospects to single handily lead charge for the AL Central crown. Melky for Sanchez is about the safest bet in trades Dayton could have made.
Moore's strategy is obviously working but the Royals are still fighting battles and not wars. Is having Jonathan Sanchez in the starting rotation along with Lorenzo Cain in CF going to make the Royals a winner? Not very likely. Would having that along with getting great seasons from Moustakas, Perez, Hosmer, Duffy AND Montgomery? Yes, that might be enough. I guess it is the smart play, but I'm still waiting to see if Moore has the ability to take a big risk. Trading Melky for Sanchez has almost no downside, re-signing Bruce Chen won't hurt you, giving Frenchy a two-year extension can't cripple you and waiting on minor league arms doesn't sink you, but it also doesn't provide you with the immediate satisfaction a long-time Royals fan needs.
I hope the waiting game works, but not dangling your top prospects for real solutions at starting pitcher would just be bad business. Cashing in on minor league talent is the best competitive advantage which the Royals currently have and you never know when the expiration date is on that currency. They are still a winning season away from being taken seriously by quality free agents, and the Jonathan Sanchez trade gets them closer to success if and only if every thing else goes well. It was a good trade, but only if you measure success in terms of baby steps. Dayton, one day you'll have to take big-boy steps. Are we there yet???
Monday, November 21, 2011
26 years and counting...
In case you just came back from a spiritual mission to India and missed the Royals season...they didn't make the playoffs. Yes, again. That makes 26 years, but who's counting? Actually, we here at the Powder Blue Room are counting. So what's the excuse this time? Given that this article is a month behind schedule, we'll keep it short, because you most likely already know the answer.
Pitching: Like the title of a certain Bob Seager song (not the one from the old Chevy truck ads) it was still the same. Except for the bullpen, except for Joakim Soria. Bruce Chen was still the same, but in a good way. Kyle Davies was still the same, but in a much much worse way. Felipe Paulino was a nice surprise, Jeff Francis was not. Luke Hochevar took some nice steps forward (mainly staying healthy), but they were taken way too late to be of much importance (next, year Hoch!). Teaford looked like he's worth a shot next year but on the other hand Vinny and O'Sullivan look like Omaha lifers. For all of the progress made in the set-up area of the bullpen Joakim had a very bad year and undeniably cost the team wins as the closer. Not to mention that Aaron Crow and Tim Collins really fizzled down the stretch. The two biggest question marks for next season might be if Joakim can reestablish himself as a dominant closer, and if Aaron Crow can transition into an average starter. This would be the best and most efficient way to improve both sides of the pitching without any external moves; and it appears that after the Sanchez trade the Royals are done making big moves in the rotation. As bad as the starting rotation was this year, if we come out of spring training with Sanchez #1, Paulino #2, Hochevar #3, Duffy #4 and Crow/Teaford/Montgomery #5, I'll take it (and so would most Royals fans, I think).
Offense: I have to say that this was actually fun to watch this year. The outfield just didn't stop all year. Seriously, who saw this one coming? Not I said the PBR. Okay one of the three outfielders finally living up to expectations I'd have bought that, two would have moved my skepticism needle into the red, but all three having career years was actually quite impressive/improbable/unbelievable/made-for-TV-movie worthy. Around the infield; Betemit was good and even better for Detroit. Moustakas was good (in September), Escobar was great (for two weeks), Getz doesn't exist to me, nor in any real offensive category. Eric Hosmer made me question my sexual orientation. The catchers weren't bad and then came Sal Perez who caught like Ivan Rodriguez and hit like Mike Piazza, in other words he's a keeper. I miss Mike Aviles, but I'll live. Johnny Giavotella looked great at times and also looked like someone who is 5'8'' trying to hit major league pitching at other times. The Royals 2012 million dollar question is can Lorenzo Cain hit? If the answer to that is yes and everything else stays the course, it should be another fun year watching the Royals hit lots of doubles at the K.
Defense: One step forward, two steps backward. If you just looked at shortstop range and outfield assists then you might come to the conclusion that it was the best ever. But unfortunately for the Royals, centerfielders in Kaufman have to cover a lot of ground. While Melky's offseason weight loss plan worked wonders at the plate, it didn't make him into Willie Mays with the glove. Throw in Alex and Frenchy, and the Royals had three above average corner outfielders trying to cover all three positions and it almost worked. However, the infield is where the real mystery unfolds. Obviously Escobar was great, but he makes up exactly 1/4th of the positions. At second base we had a defensive specialist who just wasn't that special (Getzie) and two offensive specialists that were especially bad with the glove (Giovatella and Aviles). All of that equals not good. At first we had the Golden Boy who looked like Mark Grace to me, but whose numbers looked more like Billy Butler (I'm just as surprised as you). Hosmer, worse than Ryan Howard, really? And third base was probably the biggest defensive black hole the team had; Wilson led the ineptitude, followed closely by Aviles and the jury is still out on Moutsakas (I think he looks terrible just for the record). Then at catcher the Royals pretty much tread water until the last month when Sir Sal came up to demonstrate just exactly how a real catcher is supposed to look behind the plate. If you're looking for 2012 prognostications, this is the easiest place to upgrade. By simply swapping Cain for Melky the Royals have already upgraded a lot. Getting a full season behind the plate from Perez should show up as well, even though it wasn't a black hole. And just by letting Hosmer's correction take effect this should also make them better. Second base isn't so easy, but Escobar can make up for one below average defender. At third, well...surprise me Moose (oh and don't forget to hit 30HRs!). I guess the real question here is do you believe the old football axiom "Defense wins Championships" or did you watch the St. Louis Cardinals hit their way to a World Series?
The Royals have a long way to go in 2012 but for once that distance can be made up without an unrealistic amount of help. The pieces are actually there for once, everything still has to go really well for the Royals, but It's not like believing in Ken Harvey and Jeremy Affelt, is it? I have to say that the odds of stopping the streak at 26 seasons without playoff baseball might be at an all time low in KC.
Pitching: Like the title of a certain Bob Seager song (not the one from the old Chevy truck ads) it was still the same. Except for the bullpen, except for Joakim Soria. Bruce Chen was still the same, but in a good way. Kyle Davies was still the same, but in a much much worse way. Felipe Paulino was a nice surprise, Jeff Francis was not. Luke Hochevar took some nice steps forward (mainly staying healthy), but they were taken way too late to be of much importance (next, year Hoch!). Teaford looked like he's worth a shot next year but on the other hand Vinny and O'Sullivan look like Omaha lifers. For all of the progress made in the set-up area of the bullpen Joakim had a very bad year and undeniably cost the team wins as the closer. Not to mention that Aaron Crow and Tim Collins really fizzled down the stretch. The two biggest question marks for next season might be if Joakim can reestablish himself as a dominant closer, and if Aaron Crow can transition into an average starter. This would be the best and most efficient way to improve both sides of the pitching without any external moves; and it appears that after the Sanchez trade the Royals are done making big moves in the rotation. As bad as the starting rotation was this year, if we come out of spring training with Sanchez #1, Paulino #2, Hochevar #3, Duffy #4 and Crow/Teaford/Montgomery #5, I'll take it (and so would most Royals fans, I think).
Offense: I have to say that this was actually fun to watch this year. The outfield just didn't stop all year. Seriously, who saw this one coming? Not I said the PBR. Okay one of the three outfielders finally living up to expectations I'd have bought that, two would have moved my skepticism needle into the red, but all three having career years was actually quite impressive/improbable/unbelievable/made-for-TV-movie worthy. Around the infield; Betemit was good and even better for Detroit. Moustakas was good (in September), Escobar was great (for two weeks), Getz doesn't exist to me, nor in any real offensive category. Eric Hosmer made me question my sexual orientation. The catchers weren't bad and then came Sal Perez who caught like Ivan Rodriguez and hit like Mike Piazza, in other words he's a keeper. I miss Mike Aviles, but I'll live. Johnny Giavotella looked great at times and also looked like someone who is 5'8'' trying to hit major league pitching at other times. The Royals 2012 million dollar question is can Lorenzo Cain hit? If the answer to that is yes and everything else stays the course, it should be another fun year watching the Royals hit lots of doubles at the K.
Defense: One step forward, two steps backward. If you just looked at shortstop range and outfield assists then you might come to the conclusion that it was the best ever. But unfortunately for the Royals, centerfielders in Kaufman have to cover a lot of ground. While Melky's offseason weight loss plan worked wonders at the plate, it didn't make him into Willie Mays with the glove. Throw in Alex and Frenchy, and the Royals had three above average corner outfielders trying to cover all three positions and it almost worked. However, the infield is where the real mystery unfolds. Obviously Escobar was great, but he makes up exactly 1/4th of the positions. At second base we had a defensive specialist who just wasn't that special (Getzie) and two offensive specialists that were especially bad with the glove (Giovatella and Aviles). All of that equals not good. At first we had the Golden Boy who looked like Mark Grace to me, but whose numbers looked more like Billy Butler (I'm just as surprised as you). Hosmer, worse than Ryan Howard, really? And third base was probably the biggest defensive black hole the team had; Wilson led the ineptitude, followed closely by Aviles and the jury is still out on Moutsakas (I think he looks terrible just for the record). Then at catcher the Royals pretty much tread water until the last month when Sir Sal came up to demonstrate just exactly how a real catcher is supposed to look behind the plate. If you're looking for 2012 prognostications, this is the easiest place to upgrade. By simply swapping Cain for Melky the Royals have already upgraded a lot. Getting a full season behind the plate from Perez should show up as well, even though it wasn't a black hole. And just by letting Hosmer's correction take effect this should also make them better. Second base isn't so easy, but Escobar can make up for one below average defender. At third, well...surprise me Moose (oh and don't forget to hit 30HRs!). I guess the real question here is do you believe the old football axiom "Defense wins Championships" or did you watch the St. Louis Cardinals hit their way to a World Series?
The Royals have a long way to go in 2012 but for once that distance can be made up without an unrealistic amount of help. The pieces are actually there for once, everything still has to go really well for the Royals, but It's not like believing in Ken Harvey and Jeremy Affelt, is it? I have to say that the odds of stopping the streak at 26 seasons without playoff baseball might be at an all time low in KC.
Sunday, September 25, 2011
Taking Stock: The September Issue
Vogue does it, so does the Powder Blue Room. Last time the PBR held a share holders meeting, the team looked somewhat different and we left off a few names, but this time we're covering the entire (pre September Call-ups) roster. The Royals are playing some classically optimistic September baseball, but is it a Blue Chip waiting to pay dividends for years to come or a Credit Default Swap waiting to bankrupt all naive investors. Lucky for you your friendly investment specialists from the Powder Blue Room (financial services division) are here to help:
The Players
Melky Cabrera: Gloating is pretty much the main impetus for why anyone would write a blog, and last time we nailed Melky to a T. It still didn't stop Dayton from signing Frenchy to a long-term deal and ignoring the advice of the PBR Hedge Fund. The problem is that Melky is a good stock to have in YOUR portfolio, but no one is dying to pay more than it's worth to have it in their portfolio. So Dayton will go into the offseason looking to trade Melky and cash in, but I think he's going to be disappointed when the Philles don't offer Cole Hamels for him. After his surge, he's now just a Hold, no longer a buy. Good luck finding a buyer Dayton, you know he's not a CF, right?
Alex Gordon: I want so badly to take profits and look for another downtrodden stock to flip, but I can't bring myself to pull the trigger. If his stock goes any higher - in terms of real, not perceived value - the Royals have themselves a legit star. However, when he sprains a pinkie finger that keeps him out of the line-up all next year, this season will be a distant memory. I have a feeling Dayton is ready to put about $50 mil into the GORDON Homegrown STAR fund; it's a play you have to make regardless of the pure logic behind the situation, so I concur. I'm still scared every time the stock loses value that it won't recover, but let's go all in on Gordon and if we get burned, then so be it. We need look no further than Minnesota and Joe Mauer to see a cautionary tale, but Gordon is still about $130 mil cheaper risk. At this point nobody can really come back and say you shouldn't have bought into GORDON stock, so go long and get as many options as you can.
Jeff Francouer: There is a certain GM who feels this is a good stock and there is still a certain Royals' blog which feels it's going to tank. Right now Francouer is very good and Dayton has the right to say "I told you so" to the legions of Frenchy doubters out there, but even the best odds would give Frenchy a 50/50 shot at repeating this year's performance. And if the coin flip lands on the wrong side, majority share holder's Dayton Co. will be left with another overextended asset clogging up space in your portfolio. I didn't buy when it was cheap, I didn't buy when it went up and down early this year, and I'm certainly not going to buy the FRENCHY Veteran Leader Index Growth fund while it's at a new 52 week high. I'm more than willing to be wrong on this pass, I'll take my chances.
Mitch Maier: Does anyone even remember the ticker symbol for this stock? Given that 500 shares of Maier Inc. costs about as much as a frozen pizza, I recommend buying. I can easily see someone else taking over Maier Inc. and squeezing more value out than the Royals seem to get (The Tampa Bay Hedge Fund, maybe?).
Billy Butler: The Billy Butler Dividend Fund is a must have for every investor. You are going to get a 4.5% yield and its going to come every three months. Billy should fire the compensation committee (his agents) that gave CEO Dayton a true club option that will reduce the window of his most profitable re-sign years with no upside. But that's not the Royals' problem, because they hold that long term call option at around $13 million if they want it. It’s fun to be in a good position and that is what the Royals are in here. Billy Co. is going to crank out steady value and don’t forget that he’s still a year shy of the Jamesian Peak Earnings Age. Buy steadily (using dollar cost averaging).
Bryan Pena: See Mitch Maier.
Salvador Perez: What a turn of events. Dayton makes the typical CEO mistake of drastically overpaying for Jason Kendall stock because he went to business school, where they teach you that purchasing a mature catching company as part of an acquisition spree will create "synergies" (game calling), "vertical integration" (leadership) and help "diversify" (veteran) your product line. These are all horrible reasons for a team such as the Royals to open their wallet. The Powder Blue Room offers an online MBA course for GM's of small market, lower tier revenue clubs. The course contains one Power Point slide. It is a white back ground with black letters that say "Find Young Talent Cheaply". That's it. Nothing there about "veteran leadership", "delight in the clubhouse", "ability to call a game" etc... These are all reasonable qualities in a stock, but the Royals need talent. Worry about the other stuff when you bust into the Dow Jones Industrial Index.
Salvador Perez is a stock that is still flying under the radar, but probably not for long. He can barley buy a shot of Patron, yet he is major league listed. This is where an analyst needs to walk the factory floor. Not too many analysts walk the floor of The K these days and they are missing an opportunity. If you watch closely you will see that his defense as a catcher is actually fun to watch. Really, this is true. He looks pretty blocking balls. The safety is always off on the cannon. Catching does not look difficult for him. Keep in mind that catching at the major league level is extremely difficult.
If he can monetize his online hitting platform, you are looking at an early retirement. If he doesn't you will probably get your money back. At the current stock price you are looking at "heads I win, tails I don't lose that much". Take advantage of everyone that read the analysts' reports (Baseball America) that said he is only a defensive catcher before they look at his game film, buy and don't stop until you hit early retirement.
Chris Getz: Even Dayton and Ned finally sold this one. When you have 8 extra base hits in over 400 plate appearances, you're not a major league starter. Now that I don't have to evaluate him as such, we can finally put a fair valuation on Chris. As a pinch runner and back-up to the back-up infielder, he's perfectly fine, I'd even buy at that price. As long as I don't have to write another article about why he is hitting leadoff, then all is cool between the PBR and the Getzie Coaches’ Kid Fund. Buy very, very, very, very low.
Erik Hosmer: Hosmer plays baseball like Bill Gates codes C++. It’s just what he does. That is how we feel about Hosmer stock. He just looks like he can play baseball. He looks good against quality pitching. He looks good catching the ball. He looks good adjusting his cap. He looks good smiling at the camera. He looks good chewing tobacco. He looks good cleaning his fingernails…you get the idea.
Of course, it’s all about price and Hosmer stock isn't a cheap stock. The stock price has him fairly valued.....for the most part. But Hosmer stock is similar to a large retail company that owns all the land under its stores and the market is missing it. Hosmer is valued as a prospect in the mold of Moustakas stock, but he has clearly already passed that and is soon to be compared with the Texiera large cap first base funds. You don't really have a choice here. You've got to buy a little high and hope to sell higher. There is a good chance the current price is going to look dirt cheap in a couple of years. Don't let your neighbors laugh and speak ill of you on the 16th hole, buy the stock.
Johnny Giavotella: Wildly overvalued from the get-go, but who wouldn't like this stock? Always undervalued (he's 5'8", haven't you heard), but with real potential (extra base power). My valuations of him were always based on the fact the he couldn't have been worse than Getz, but I still advocated for the Aviles fund to be kept around (He's hitting .340 for the RED SOX, by the way). I'm actually quite curious about this stock, so I own a few shares just for fun. I could see a Dustin Pedroia ALLSTAR Index Fund or I could see Cris Getz beating him out for the job next year. It's probably one of the more interesting stocks in the Royals portfolio, so you might as well have a few shares.
Alcides Escobar: Alcides is like buying a Jackson Pollack painting. If you’re already rich it’s fun to show off, but if you’re broke you should probably sell it and pay employees that make money for you. I like to look at Alcides too, but I’ve been reading the Dayton Moore Investor’s Report and he’s convinced that this is a necessary piece to have in your portfolio. It’s not. He’s still one of the worst hitters in baseball, yes worse than YUNI. That backhand is awesome, but he’s still burning through cash with his OBP. If you can find another art collector who’ll give you 10x what you paid then take it and build another factory. If not keep looking at it and hope you get rich enough to buy a room for it.
Mike Moustakas: What to do? If you looked through a catalogue of baseball stocks and saw a 3B stock under 6'-0", slightly pudgy, not very smooth in the field (or overall for that matter), you certainly would not pay the price that Dayton Moore is probably currently asking. This is where the Powder Blue Room analysts have their questions. Inside our glass encased, sound proof, off-shore conference room, the PBR has had many a conference call stating our reservations about picking up a big block of Moose stock. We like our blue chips to look, act and move like one. Moose stock sure doesn't look like Erik Hosmer stock. He doesn't walk like Hosmer stock, isn’t nearly as smooth; he doesn't even throw the ball back to the pitcher in same suave fashion that Hosmer does. We are well aware that one can't make an investment decision based on the company printed annual report, but we like our blue chip stocks to look and act the part.
It’s nice to see Moose stock end the year hitting well, but if Dayton called and said we could trade him back to Milwaukee for a controlling stake in Greinke Co., we’d give the order to pull out of Moose stock. You could try and hedge, but don't bother, the rest of the league has already beat you to that position. If you can find a sucker SELL. Otherwise; dance with whom you brought.
Nate Adcock: Nate is like a Farmers National Bank Platnium Select Savings Account; everybody should have a few bucks in a savings account because it will be there when you need it. However, no team has ever won the World Series with the Nate Adcocks of the world. And whether or not Nate is in Japan next season or pitching for the Royals he won't suddenly make you a 90 win team. Not a Buy, but if you've got a few bucks tucked away in an Adcock 1yr CD, just save it for a rainy day.
Louis Coleman: This stock has taken a beating lately. People who bought high are now stuck taking losses, but if he's your fourth best reliever, all is well with your bullpen. Hold.
Tim Collins: Little Timmy is like an Airline stock. Sometimes you wonder how he isn't better than he is; people fly, they spend a lot of money to do so, so why can't airlines make money? Timmy's left handed, strikes out a lot of people and has a crazy delivery. But wait he's walked more people than Jeff Francis in over 100 less innings. Also, lefties hit about as well as do righties; so he's not a lefty specialist, not a closer and not a set-up guy, I'd sell.
Aaron Crow: Last time we advised staying away from this stock due to the unreliability of relief pitchers. Since then he was named an All-Star, briefly made the closer and then his ERA went up 1.5 runs (supposedly he was hurt) and now he's not even the set-up man. If Crow isn't a starter, then what is he? Turns out, he's probably a flash-in-the-pan bullpen guy. I'll keep my fingers crossed, but I'm still staying away from the CROW Fund until he does what he did earlier in the year for seven innings every fifth day.
Greg Holland: Like all reliever stock, the Holland stock is overvalued, but I still really like it. The SO/BB ratio is just what you want to see from a dominant reliever...Joakim, watch your job. I'd buy this stock, it's probably still got room to grow.
Joakim Soria: Oh Joakim, why couldn't you have just kept your real nickname? Now you're just OKAY, you're not what you have been and we don't know what that means going forward. I suppose you'll get the job again next year as long as you stay healthy, but you're just not an exciting stock to own anymore. I'm still holding, but it's mainly because I overextended myself buying your stock over the past few years.
Everett Teaford: Apparently it was Everett who was mislabeled as a small cap lefty specialist. As a starter he strikes out about 9/game and dominates (until Saturday). Even though the PBR usually likes to have more data, this stock is still cheap and could fill in the hole of the hopefully departing Jeff Francis and Bruce Chen. Buy a few shares of this one and see what happens.
Blake Wood: If Blake can keep it together for the rest of the year, then at best he's the fourth piece in a big trade (see Jeremy Jeffress), but that's about it. Nothing to see here, move along. He's essentially a functioning factory on a heavy equipment manufacturers' asset sheet. Keep using it until it breaks, but if it breaks the company will keep going without missing a beat.
Felipe Paulino: The broker you have in your "market assisted brokerage account" called you up and pushed you to buy "boatloads" of Paulino in June. He said it was a young stock all the analysts were talking about because the company had recently moved into the high profit starting pitching industry. You didn't buy and your golf buddies made fun of you as the market began to warm to what is a somewhat promising growth stock.
However, the market is brutal to growth stocks that don't constantly grow and a couple of rough starts sent the stock off its 52 week high. Now the question is whether or not Paulino is worth buying now that it is trading at a valuation where growth is already accounted for in the price. Taking in the Royals’ other options in the starting pitcher market it’s a very strong Hold, hopefully you bought early.
Bruce Chen: The Powder Blue Room was short on Bruce Chen stock so hard it made the protagonists in Michael Lewis' The Big Short look like they were playing nickel slots. Any Powder Blue Room trader found to be holding a long position in the stock was immediately fired and ordered to watch a full season of Jose Guillen playing slow pitch softball in San Domingo. We created an over-the-counter market to sell call options on Chen stock because we were certain the stock would never be worth "calling".
We were wrong. Chen maintained steady free cash flow and kept his listing as a major league company. He developed into the niche industry of Jamie Moyer companies that seem to survive despite not having strong fundamentals. Companies like this rely on accounting tricks to keep earnings positive. The upside is minimal at best and the downside is immense. The prices for options on Chen stock going bankrupt are again tempting and one should never forget how close this company was to being de-listed. You might get a small dividend check every fifth start next year, but you are one bad month away from going broke. Anything times zero is zero. If you bought back in 2010, congratulations, go sell it all and buy yourself something nice. Find some other sucker to take the hot potato.
Danny Duffy: We looked into long term options of Duffy stock while he was still a company waiting to be major league listed in Omaha. The problem was that the rating agencies (Baseball America) had been touting him for a while now and his potential was priced in. It is certainly nice to see a Royals subsidiary able to beat hitters with good stuff, while throwing from the left side. This stock is admittedly in a better industry than the dot-com busts like Chris George.
You could do worse than picking yourself up a few hundred shares at this point, because the price tag never went very high on Duffy stock. There is still room for a massive turn into a company like Greinke Co. and even if he flops you will still be able to get $0.80 on the dollar and live to fight another battle. Nothing hurts more than missing the next big growth phenomenon so go buy yourself some insanity insurance and pick up a few shares. If he wins the Cy Young at least you will have some in your portfolio and not get laughed out of Jackson Hole's high speed gondola lift over your 2013 President's Day weekend ski trip.
Jeff Francis: We have to be honest here. The Powder Blue Room does not even have an analyst assigned to cover Jeff Francis stock. Someone might have mentioned this stock at a Denver investor's conference one time, but that was only because it must be included in the "AL Central Starters With Over 150 Innings Pitched Index".
We didn't even know the ticker symbol for this stock. If you own it you could use the stock certificate to diagram offensive plays for the Chiefs that might actually work. Maybe call into Cramer's lightening round and see what he thinks. The Powder Blue Room says could care less about having this one in its portfolio.
Luke Hochever: There are a lot of stubborn folks who paid a decent price for this stock when it had its IPO out of a Fort Worth bucket shop. Those folks are still holding on in the dear hope that the stock reaches that level again. If you are an institutional investor you certainly have to have a block of this stuff because he's good enough to be included in all the S&P (Starters and Pitchers) Index Pitching Funds. Hochevar could still end up as a decent innings eating, dividend paying stock that churns out decent profits over time. We bought our block at a reasonable price and we're reasonable people, so we are going to hold on, take our steady dividend and reinvest elsewhere.
The Royals stock is up, but will we see it continue to grow in fiscal year 2012? As a whole, we think so, but there are still some serious assets missing and some we feel are overvalued by current Royals Fund Manger Dayton Moore. Dayton’s done a good job of gutting the system and getting some fundamental earnings potential back in the Royals portfolio, but next year and this offseason will really tell the tale on where the Royals go from here.
The Players
Melky Cabrera: Gloating is pretty much the main impetus for why anyone would write a blog, and last time we nailed Melky to a T. It still didn't stop Dayton from signing Frenchy to a long-term deal and ignoring the advice of the PBR Hedge Fund. The problem is that Melky is a good stock to have in YOUR portfolio, but no one is dying to pay more than it's worth to have it in their portfolio. So Dayton will go into the offseason looking to trade Melky and cash in, but I think he's going to be disappointed when the Philles don't offer Cole Hamels for him. After his surge, he's now just a Hold, no longer a buy. Good luck finding a buyer Dayton, you know he's not a CF, right?
Alex Gordon: I want so badly to take profits and look for another downtrodden stock to flip, but I can't bring myself to pull the trigger. If his stock goes any higher - in terms of real, not perceived value - the Royals have themselves a legit star. However, when he sprains a pinkie finger that keeps him out of the line-up all next year, this season will be a distant memory. I have a feeling Dayton is ready to put about $50 mil into the GORDON Homegrown STAR fund; it's a play you have to make regardless of the pure logic behind the situation, so I concur. I'm still scared every time the stock loses value that it won't recover, but let's go all in on Gordon and if we get burned, then so be it. We need look no further than Minnesota and Joe Mauer to see a cautionary tale, but Gordon is still about $130 mil cheaper risk. At this point nobody can really come back and say you shouldn't have bought into GORDON stock, so go long and get as many options as you can.
Jeff Francouer: There is a certain GM who feels this is a good stock and there is still a certain Royals' blog which feels it's going to tank. Right now Francouer is very good and Dayton has the right to say "I told you so" to the legions of Frenchy doubters out there, but even the best odds would give Frenchy a 50/50 shot at repeating this year's performance. And if the coin flip lands on the wrong side, majority share holder's Dayton Co. will be left with another overextended asset clogging up space in your portfolio. I didn't buy when it was cheap, I didn't buy when it went up and down early this year, and I'm certainly not going to buy the FRENCHY Veteran Leader Index Growth fund while it's at a new 52 week high. I'm more than willing to be wrong on this pass, I'll take my chances.
Mitch Maier: Does anyone even remember the ticker symbol for this stock? Given that 500 shares of Maier Inc. costs about as much as a frozen pizza, I recommend buying. I can easily see someone else taking over Maier Inc. and squeezing more value out than the Royals seem to get (The Tampa Bay Hedge Fund, maybe?).
Billy Butler: The Billy Butler Dividend Fund is a must have for every investor. You are going to get a 4.5% yield and its going to come every three months. Billy should fire the compensation committee (his agents) that gave CEO Dayton a true club option that will reduce the window of his most profitable re-sign years with no upside. But that's not the Royals' problem, because they hold that long term call option at around $13 million if they want it. It’s fun to be in a good position and that is what the Royals are in here. Billy Co. is going to crank out steady value and don’t forget that he’s still a year shy of the Jamesian Peak Earnings Age. Buy steadily (using dollar cost averaging).
Bryan Pena: See Mitch Maier.
Salvador Perez: What a turn of events. Dayton makes the typical CEO mistake of drastically overpaying for Jason Kendall stock because he went to business school, where they teach you that purchasing a mature catching company as part of an acquisition spree will create "synergies" (game calling), "vertical integration" (leadership) and help "diversify" (veteran) your product line. These are all horrible reasons for a team such as the Royals to open their wallet. The Powder Blue Room offers an online MBA course for GM's of small market, lower tier revenue clubs. The course contains one Power Point slide. It is a white back ground with black letters that say "Find Young Talent Cheaply". That's it. Nothing there about "veteran leadership", "delight in the clubhouse", "ability to call a game" etc... These are all reasonable qualities in a stock, but the Royals need talent. Worry about the other stuff when you bust into the Dow Jones Industrial Index.
Salvador Perez is a stock that is still flying under the radar, but probably not for long. He can barley buy a shot of Patron, yet he is major league listed. This is where an analyst needs to walk the factory floor. Not too many analysts walk the floor of The K these days and they are missing an opportunity. If you watch closely you will see that his defense as a catcher is actually fun to watch. Really, this is true. He looks pretty blocking balls. The safety is always off on the cannon. Catching does not look difficult for him. Keep in mind that catching at the major league level is extremely difficult.
If he can monetize his online hitting platform, you are looking at an early retirement. If he doesn't you will probably get your money back. At the current stock price you are looking at "heads I win, tails I don't lose that much". Take advantage of everyone that read the analysts' reports (Baseball America) that said he is only a defensive catcher before they look at his game film, buy and don't stop until you hit early retirement.
Chris Getz: Even Dayton and Ned finally sold this one. When you have 8 extra base hits in over 400 plate appearances, you're not a major league starter. Now that I don't have to evaluate him as such, we can finally put a fair valuation on Chris. As a pinch runner and back-up to the back-up infielder, he's perfectly fine, I'd even buy at that price. As long as I don't have to write another article about why he is hitting leadoff, then all is cool between the PBR and the Getzie Coaches’ Kid Fund. Buy very, very, very, very low.
Erik Hosmer: Hosmer plays baseball like Bill Gates codes C++. It’s just what he does. That is how we feel about Hosmer stock. He just looks like he can play baseball. He looks good against quality pitching. He looks good catching the ball. He looks good adjusting his cap. He looks good smiling at the camera. He looks good chewing tobacco. He looks good cleaning his fingernails…you get the idea.
Of course, it’s all about price and Hosmer stock isn't a cheap stock. The stock price has him fairly valued.....for the most part. But Hosmer stock is similar to a large retail company that owns all the land under its stores and the market is missing it. Hosmer is valued as a prospect in the mold of Moustakas stock, but he has clearly already passed that and is soon to be compared with the Texiera large cap first base funds. You don't really have a choice here. You've got to buy a little high and hope to sell higher. There is a good chance the current price is going to look dirt cheap in a couple of years. Don't let your neighbors laugh and speak ill of you on the 16th hole, buy the stock.
Johnny Giavotella: Wildly overvalued from the get-go, but who wouldn't like this stock? Always undervalued (he's 5'8", haven't you heard), but with real potential (extra base power). My valuations of him were always based on the fact the he couldn't have been worse than Getz, but I still advocated for the Aviles fund to be kept around (He's hitting .340 for the RED SOX, by the way). I'm actually quite curious about this stock, so I own a few shares just for fun. I could see a Dustin Pedroia ALLSTAR Index Fund or I could see Cris Getz beating him out for the job next year. It's probably one of the more interesting stocks in the Royals portfolio, so you might as well have a few shares.
Alcides Escobar: Alcides is like buying a Jackson Pollack painting. If you’re already rich it’s fun to show off, but if you’re broke you should probably sell it and pay employees that make money for you. I like to look at Alcides too, but I’ve been reading the Dayton Moore Investor’s Report and he’s convinced that this is a necessary piece to have in your portfolio. It’s not. He’s still one of the worst hitters in baseball, yes worse than YUNI. That backhand is awesome, but he’s still burning through cash with his OBP. If you can find another art collector who’ll give you 10x what you paid then take it and build another factory. If not keep looking at it and hope you get rich enough to buy a room for it.
Mike Moustakas: What to do? If you looked through a catalogue of baseball stocks and saw a 3B stock under 6'-0", slightly pudgy, not very smooth in the field (or overall for that matter), you certainly would not pay the price that Dayton Moore is probably currently asking. This is where the Powder Blue Room analysts have their questions. Inside our glass encased, sound proof, off-shore conference room, the PBR has had many a conference call stating our reservations about picking up a big block of Moose stock. We like our blue chips to look, act and move like one. Moose stock sure doesn't look like Erik Hosmer stock. He doesn't walk like Hosmer stock, isn’t nearly as smooth; he doesn't even throw the ball back to the pitcher in same suave fashion that Hosmer does. We are well aware that one can't make an investment decision based on the company printed annual report, but we like our blue chip stocks to look and act the part.
It’s nice to see Moose stock end the year hitting well, but if Dayton called and said we could trade him back to Milwaukee for a controlling stake in Greinke Co., we’d give the order to pull out of Moose stock. You could try and hedge, but don't bother, the rest of the league has already beat you to that position. If you can find a sucker SELL. Otherwise; dance with whom you brought.
The Pitchers
Nate Adcock: Nate is like a Farmers National Bank Platnium Select Savings Account; everybody should have a few bucks in a savings account because it will be there when you need it. However, no team has ever won the World Series with the Nate Adcocks of the world. And whether or not Nate is in Japan next season or pitching for the Royals he won't suddenly make you a 90 win team. Not a Buy, but if you've got a few bucks tucked away in an Adcock 1yr CD, just save it for a rainy day.
Louis Coleman: This stock has taken a beating lately. People who bought high are now stuck taking losses, but if he's your fourth best reliever, all is well with your bullpen. Hold.
Tim Collins: Little Timmy is like an Airline stock. Sometimes you wonder how he isn't better than he is; people fly, they spend a lot of money to do so, so why can't airlines make money? Timmy's left handed, strikes out a lot of people and has a crazy delivery. But wait he's walked more people than Jeff Francis in over 100 less innings. Also, lefties hit about as well as do righties; so he's not a lefty specialist, not a closer and not a set-up guy, I'd sell.
Aaron Crow: Last time we advised staying away from this stock due to the unreliability of relief pitchers. Since then he was named an All-Star, briefly made the closer and then his ERA went up 1.5 runs (supposedly he was hurt) and now he's not even the set-up man. If Crow isn't a starter, then what is he? Turns out, he's probably a flash-in-the-pan bullpen guy. I'll keep my fingers crossed, but I'm still staying away from the CROW Fund until he does what he did earlier in the year for seven innings every fifth day.
Greg Holland: Like all reliever stock, the Holland stock is overvalued, but I still really like it. The SO/BB ratio is just what you want to see from a dominant reliever...Joakim, watch your job. I'd buy this stock, it's probably still got room to grow.
Joakim Soria: Oh Joakim, why couldn't you have just kept your real nickname? Now you're just OKAY, you're not what you have been and we don't know what that means going forward. I suppose you'll get the job again next year as long as you stay healthy, but you're just not an exciting stock to own anymore. I'm still holding, but it's mainly because I overextended myself buying your stock over the past few years.
Everett Teaford: Apparently it was Everett who was mislabeled as a small cap lefty specialist. As a starter he strikes out about 9/game and dominates (until Saturday). Even though the PBR usually likes to have more data, this stock is still cheap and could fill in the hole of the hopefully departing Jeff Francis and Bruce Chen. Buy a few shares of this one and see what happens.
Blake Wood: If Blake can keep it together for the rest of the year, then at best he's the fourth piece in a big trade (see Jeremy Jeffress), but that's about it. Nothing to see here, move along. He's essentially a functioning factory on a heavy equipment manufacturers' asset sheet. Keep using it until it breaks, but if it breaks the company will keep going without missing a beat.
Felipe Paulino: The broker you have in your "market assisted brokerage account" called you up and pushed you to buy "boatloads" of Paulino in June. He said it was a young stock all the analysts were talking about because the company had recently moved into the high profit starting pitching industry. You didn't buy and your golf buddies made fun of you as the market began to warm to what is a somewhat promising growth stock.
However, the market is brutal to growth stocks that don't constantly grow and a couple of rough starts sent the stock off its 52 week high. Now the question is whether or not Paulino is worth buying now that it is trading at a valuation where growth is already accounted for in the price. Taking in the Royals’ other options in the starting pitcher market it’s a very strong Hold, hopefully you bought early.
Bruce Chen: The Powder Blue Room was short on Bruce Chen stock so hard it made the protagonists in Michael Lewis' The Big Short look like they were playing nickel slots. Any Powder Blue Room trader found to be holding a long position in the stock was immediately fired and ordered to watch a full season of Jose Guillen playing slow pitch softball in San Domingo. We created an over-the-counter market to sell call options on Chen stock because we were certain the stock would never be worth "calling".
We were wrong. Chen maintained steady free cash flow and kept his listing as a major league company. He developed into the niche industry of Jamie Moyer companies that seem to survive despite not having strong fundamentals. Companies like this rely on accounting tricks to keep earnings positive. The upside is minimal at best and the downside is immense. The prices for options on Chen stock going bankrupt are again tempting and one should never forget how close this company was to being de-listed. You might get a small dividend check every fifth start next year, but you are one bad month away from going broke. Anything times zero is zero. If you bought back in 2010, congratulations, go sell it all and buy yourself something nice. Find some other sucker to take the hot potato.
Danny Duffy: We looked into long term options of Duffy stock while he was still a company waiting to be major league listed in Omaha. The problem was that the rating agencies (Baseball America) had been touting him for a while now and his potential was priced in. It is certainly nice to see a Royals subsidiary able to beat hitters with good stuff, while throwing from the left side. This stock is admittedly in a better industry than the dot-com busts like Chris George.
You could do worse than picking yourself up a few hundred shares at this point, because the price tag never went very high on Duffy stock. There is still room for a massive turn into a company like Greinke Co. and even if he flops you will still be able to get $0.80 on the dollar and live to fight another battle. Nothing hurts more than missing the next big growth phenomenon so go buy yourself some insanity insurance and pick up a few shares. If he wins the Cy Young at least you will have some in your portfolio and not get laughed out of Jackson Hole's high speed gondola lift over your 2013 President's Day weekend ski trip.
Jeff Francis: We have to be honest here. The Powder Blue Room does not even have an analyst assigned to cover Jeff Francis stock. Someone might have mentioned this stock at a Denver investor's conference one time, but that was only because it must be included in the "AL Central Starters With Over 150 Innings Pitched Index".
We didn't even know the ticker symbol for this stock. If you own it you could use the stock certificate to diagram offensive plays for the Chiefs that might actually work. Maybe call into Cramer's lightening round and see what he thinks. The Powder Blue Room says could care less about having this one in its portfolio.
Luke Hochever: There are a lot of stubborn folks who paid a decent price for this stock when it had its IPO out of a Fort Worth bucket shop. Those folks are still holding on in the dear hope that the stock reaches that level again. If you are an institutional investor you certainly have to have a block of this stuff because he's good enough to be included in all the S&P (Starters and Pitchers) Index Pitching Funds. Hochevar could still end up as a decent innings eating, dividend paying stock that churns out decent profits over time. We bought our block at a reasonable price and we're reasonable people, so we are going to hold on, take our steady dividend and reinvest elsewhere.
The Royals stock is up, but will we see it continue to grow in fiscal year 2012? As a whole, we think so, but there are still some serious assets missing and some we feel are overvalued by current Royals Fund Manger Dayton Moore. Dayton’s done a good job of gutting the system and getting some fundamental earnings potential back in the Royals portfolio, but next year and this offseason will really tell the tale on where the Royals go from here.
Monday, August 29, 2011
A Dayton Late and a Dollar Short
In a stirring announcement over the weekend, Dayton Moore admitted (indirectly) that the Powder Blue Room had it right and he should explore trading prospects for starting pitching. While we thank Dayton for his candor, we're still waiting for an official offer to become the new Assistant GM. All kidding aside, this is both good news and yet another possible indication that Dayton's timing will never be enough to get the Royals to the next level. Correct me if I'm wrong, but the Royals no longer have any top prospects that can fetch a #1 starting pitcher? Not to mention, I don't think there is a #1 or even a #2 on the trade market, again correct me if I'm wrong
Right about now is when most Royals fans start to talk about how good the Chiefs are going to be this year and forget all about the Royals (unless your buddy gets free tickets from someone at the office). However, if you're like me and feel that football in August is an abomination and actually wish the lockout would have lasted until after the World Series, then you've got some things on your mind. Namely, with the Tigers series starting today, what would make the difference between what the Royals are now (20+ games under .500) and this series being an important late season battle between the two division leaders? According to my calculations, it's actually not that much.
During the trade deadline I proposed three trades (see Ubaldo Jimenez & Wandy Rodriguez and Carlos Zambrano) which all look (admittedly) to be pretty misguided right now. And maybe they were and will be in the future, but I'm going to put forth a simple proposition which, in conjunction with a reasonable change in fortune, would put the Royals into contention this year for the division title. Here are the what iffs; if during the 2010 trade deadline the Royals had traded for Dan Haren and if Joakim was having a dominant year the Royals would have approximately a 12 win differential giving them a 67-67 record and within shouting distance of Detroit. It wouldn't give them the Phillies record, but all things being equal, I think we'd take it in KC. It is the AL Central after all.
So let's go back in time to last year's trade deadline...Dan Haren was a good pitcher having a bad year (4.6 ERA at time of trade) and Arizona was shedding payroll as fast as possible. The Royals had the best minor league farm system and presumably could have offered the best package to the D'Backs. They didn't (obviously) and the Angels did (obviously). Haren has been one of the best pitchers in the league and the Royals have trotted out one of the league's worst rotation day after day. My calculations assume that Haren would have replaced Sean O'Sullivan and Kyle Davies combined starts this year and made about a 6 win difference (thanks B-Ref WAR). Based on the return Arizona Received the Royals probably could have gotten him for Mike Montgomery plus one or two other prospects.Who knows what it really would have taken from the Royals, but the D'Backs ended up with Joe Saunders and one top 100 prospect. So really any two of the Royals top pitching prospects should have gotten the job done.
The next 6 wins come from Jokiam Soria only blowing one save, this would be a dominant year, but certainly not impossible. Also, according to the numbers (thanks again B-Ref), the Royals have been a bit unlucky this year so Jokiam is really just a scape goat for luck. This again goes to question Dayton's sense of timing since Joakim has gone from big trading chip to borderline closer in just one year. We all hope Joakim bounces back next year, but if he doesn't it will be anther check mark against the ability for Dayton to pull the trigger at the right time. All of that aside, this change isn't earth shattering and can easily be expected to occur next year.
As we all know, the Royals highly touted left handed pitching prospects have all failed across the board this year. If your biggest success is that one actually made it to the majors and has been healthy, then I guess Duffy is a success. However, none have helped the Royals this year and the odds of them helping next year are pure speculation at best. Now what the Royals have are a bunch of "former top prospects" that might not get you the Dan Harens of the trade market. I'm sure the Royals still have a big package which will get you close or put you in contention with other teams, but last year the Royals had the types of prospects to go out and get anyone. This year I'm not sure that's true.
Admittedly, last year was probably not the time for a big move and the Royals have had some bad luck when it comes to starting pitching prospects. But in the end, all of the improvement this year has really come from unexpected seasons by Frenchy, Melky and Gordon. If we can assume that our offense can only improve from this year (Hosmer and Moose, I'm looking at you) then the Royals are still closer than they have been a long time.
If being an MLB GM is also a game of invisible inches then Dayton could make a big move in the offseason and provide the Royals exactly what they need. But I wonder if he has already missed the boat?
Right about now is when most Royals fans start to talk about how good the Chiefs are going to be this year and forget all about the Royals (unless your buddy gets free tickets from someone at the office). However, if you're like me and feel that football in August is an abomination and actually wish the lockout would have lasted until after the World Series, then you've got some things on your mind. Namely, with the Tigers series starting today, what would make the difference between what the Royals are now (20+ games under .500) and this series being an important late season battle between the two division leaders? According to my calculations, it's actually not that much.
During the trade deadline I proposed three trades (see Ubaldo Jimenez & Wandy Rodriguez and Carlos Zambrano) which all look (admittedly) to be pretty misguided right now. And maybe they were and will be in the future, but I'm going to put forth a simple proposition which, in conjunction with a reasonable change in fortune, would put the Royals into contention this year for the division title. Here are the what iffs; if during the 2010 trade deadline the Royals had traded for Dan Haren and if Joakim was having a dominant year the Royals would have approximately a 12 win differential giving them a 67-67 record and within shouting distance of Detroit. It wouldn't give them the Phillies record, but all things being equal, I think we'd take it in KC. It is the AL Central after all.
So let's go back in time to last year's trade deadline...Dan Haren was a good pitcher having a bad year (4.6 ERA at time of trade) and Arizona was shedding payroll as fast as possible. The Royals had the best minor league farm system and presumably could have offered the best package to the D'Backs. They didn't (obviously) and the Angels did (obviously). Haren has been one of the best pitchers in the league and the Royals have trotted out one of the league's worst rotation day after day. My calculations assume that Haren would have replaced Sean O'Sullivan and Kyle Davies combined starts this year and made about a 6 win difference (thanks B-Ref WAR). Based on the return Arizona Received the Royals probably could have gotten him for Mike Montgomery plus one or two other prospects.Who knows what it really would have taken from the Royals, but the D'Backs ended up with Joe Saunders and one top 100 prospect. So really any two of the Royals top pitching prospects should have gotten the job done.
The next 6 wins come from Jokiam Soria only blowing one save, this would be a dominant year, but certainly not impossible. Also, according to the numbers (thanks again B-Ref), the Royals have been a bit unlucky this year so Jokiam is really just a scape goat for luck. This again goes to question Dayton's sense of timing since Joakim has gone from big trading chip to borderline closer in just one year. We all hope Joakim bounces back next year, but if he doesn't it will be anther check mark against the ability for Dayton to pull the trigger at the right time. All of that aside, this change isn't earth shattering and can easily be expected to occur next year.
As we all know, the Royals highly touted left handed pitching prospects have all failed across the board this year. If your biggest success is that one actually made it to the majors and has been healthy, then I guess Duffy is a success. However, none have helped the Royals this year and the odds of them helping next year are pure speculation at best. Now what the Royals have are a bunch of "former top prospects" that might not get you the Dan Harens of the trade market. I'm sure the Royals still have a big package which will get you close or put you in contention with other teams, but last year the Royals had the types of prospects to go out and get anyone. This year I'm not sure that's true.
Admittedly, last year was probably not the time for a big move and the Royals have had some bad luck when it comes to starting pitching prospects. But in the end, all of the improvement this year has really come from unexpected seasons by Frenchy, Melky and Gordon. If we can assume that our offense can only improve from this year (Hosmer and Moose, I'm looking at you) then the Royals are still closer than they have been a long time.
If being an MLB GM is also a game of invisible inches then Dayton could make a big move in the offseason and provide the Royals exactly what they need. But I wonder if he has already missed the boat?
Thursday, August 18, 2011
All Aboard the Dayton Train!
If it wasn't obvious to everyone before, it should be painfully clear now that this is Dayton's team. First it was the full-steam-a head bullpen youth movement. Next, it was white-hot Eric Hosmer over struggling Kila; which has seemed to work out for everyone except Kila. Then it was Moustakas over Betemit; hopefully it works next year but this year it has only helped the Detroit Tigers and made KC even worse. Then it was Getz over Aviles, who was subsequently recalled and then banished for speaking out against the regime. Then Dayton got serious and called-up Giovatella to replace Getz, Kyle Davies (drunkenly) fell from even Dayton's good grace, and now Dayton's prized rookie catcher has taken over the backstop for good (Pena never could get a chance with the Royals).
And if that wasn't clear enough for you, the final piece to his puzzle has been completed with the two year extension given to his love child, Jeff Francouer. For all of the obvious ways we could choose to make fun of this signing, let's first give Dayton his due credit for this and the Melky signing. It worked out, it could have gone differently but somehow both of these guys are having very good years and Dayton looks like a smart guy. On the other hand, I'm not going to sit here call Moore a genius. He signed two guys that no other team wanted because they were cheap and it still may be true that he has a CF in Omaha who's better than both of them. Who knows?
We're now all just along for the ride while Dayton conducts what will be our KC Royals for the near future. The way I see it two things will determine the success of the Dayton Moore led effort to resurrect the fortunes of the Royals...
The Youth
This might be overstating the obvious, but it is the young players who determine determine the fate of the team. Now that they have their spirited leader Frenchy inked for two more years, Dayton has placed his on the field mouth piece to lead for better or worse. In reality, what will be more important is whether Hosmer or Moustakas really become superstars. By superstar I don't mean Gordon/Melky/Frenchy-type bounce back years. I mean Fielder/Braun/Upton/Cabrera/Votto-like dominant years. It's all on Hosmer's shoulders now, but hopefully Moose still has it in him. There still isn't a great hitter on the team, there are several good ones, but finding someone who can really scare opposing pitchers is what gets a team to the next level. Dayton has done his best to sign and pay for young talent and he now has what he's spent the last few years paying for ready to go. We'll know much more at this time next year, but despite all of the small victories and signs of improvement, Hosmer and Moose have made us no better than Tehan and Buck and Duffy and Crow have not improved us from the likes of Gobble and MacDougal. So there is still a lot of work to do.
Timing
Timing does play a huge factor in youth development, but that's not what I'm referring to here; prospects will bust and get hurt, that's just how it goes. However, Dayton still hasn't shown the ability to have success making a big move, and at some point he's going to have to make trades and signings which make the Royals good in the present tense. Sure Bubba Starling might be awesome in 5 years, but the Royals are 21 games under .500 RIGHT NOW. Is signing Jeff Francouer for two more years going to change that? Did signing Melky this year change it? Don't answer. Has the Greinke trade helped the team? As it stands right now, the Royals got a big upgrade on Yuni's defense and they got one of the best pitchers in baseball. How well did Jason Kendall work out everyone? Dido on Jose Guillen. Yes, we all love the signings of Melky and Paulino, Frenchy and Chen, but there will come a time when that's just not big enough.
So everyone kick back and watch as Dayton's Reign begins.
And if that wasn't clear enough for you, the final piece to his puzzle has been completed with the two year extension given to his love child, Jeff Francouer. For all of the obvious ways we could choose to make fun of this signing, let's first give Dayton his due credit for this and the Melky signing. It worked out, it could have gone differently but somehow both of these guys are having very good years and Dayton looks like a smart guy. On the other hand, I'm not going to sit here call Moore a genius. He signed two guys that no other team wanted because they were cheap and it still may be true that he has a CF in Omaha who's better than both of them. Who knows?
We're now all just along for the ride while Dayton conducts what will be our KC Royals for the near future. The way I see it two things will determine the success of the Dayton Moore led effort to resurrect the fortunes of the Royals...
The Youth
This might be overstating the obvious, but it is the young players who determine determine the fate of the team. Now that they have their spirited leader Frenchy inked for two more years, Dayton has placed his on the field mouth piece to lead for better or worse. In reality, what will be more important is whether Hosmer or Moustakas really become superstars. By superstar I don't mean Gordon/Melky/Frenchy-type bounce back years. I mean Fielder/Braun/Upton/Cabrera/Votto-like dominant years. It's all on Hosmer's shoulders now, but hopefully Moose still has it in him. There still isn't a great hitter on the team, there are several good ones, but finding someone who can really scare opposing pitchers is what gets a team to the next level. Dayton has done his best to sign and pay for young talent and he now has what he's spent the last few years paying for ready to go. We'll know much more at this time next year, but despite all of the small victories and signs of improvement, Hosmer and Moose have made us no better than Tehan and Buck and Duffy and Crow have not improved us from the likes of Gobble and MacDougal. So there is still a lot of work to do.
Timing
Timing does play a huge factor in youth development, but that's not what I'm referring to here; prospects will bust and get hurt, that's just how it goes. However, Dayton still hasn't shown the ability to have success making a big move, and at some point he's going to have to make trades and signings which make the Royals good in the present tense. Sure Bubba Starling might be awesome in 5 years, but the Royals are 21 games under .500 RIGHT NOW. Is signing Jeff Francouer for two more years going to change that? Did signing Melky this year change it? Don't answer. Has the Greinke trade helped the team? As it stands right now, the Royals got a big upgrade on Yuni's defense and they got one of the best pitchers in baseball. How well did Jason Kendall work out everyone? Dido on Jose Guillen. Yes, we all love the signings of Melky and Paulino, Frenchy and Chen, but there will come a time when that's just not big enough.
So everyone kick back and watch as Dayton's Reign begins.
Tuesday, August 2, 2011
Obligatory Post Trade Deadline Wrap
Blockbusters up and down and the Royals stuck in the middle holding on to Melky, Frenchy, Francis and Chen. Apparently, the Cleveland Indians listened to the Powder Blue Room, but the Royals barely made a squeak in the trade market. The Royals essentially dumped two players taking up space on their bench for players who aren't contractually required to take-up space on the bench. So what happened to Dayton and his patented trade deadline specials? I think he got a little too big for his britches. Given that there was absolutely no need to trade anyone for payroll reasons, I think Dayton tried to play hardball and got what he should have expected. Now we have to wait and see if it was a case overvaluing players or rightfully balking at the paltry returns offered for the likes of Melky and Frenchy. The hardest part is that we really don't know, while MLB Trade Rumors does a fantastic job of making us think we know. In the end we have no idea of what, who, when and if any offers came for the Royals' players, still that doesn't stop us from pretending we know more than our GM...
Melky
Dayton's Price: I want a high upside MLB ready starting pitcher.
The Rest of the League's Response: Yes Dayton, everyone would love to turn a million dollar gamble and half a season from a slightly above average CF into a starting pitcher, but what you really get is Vin Mazarro or someone who throws 100 MPH, but has more walks than strike-outs pitching down in AA.
The Reality: Dayton probably played this one well, there was just simply no reason give away Melky for anything less than real talent. He's cheap, under team control and if he continues to play like this will be worth as much during the offseason or at next year's trade deadline. Also, I'm guessing that no one in the league really bought the whole "Melky finally figured it out" storyline and decided the better options of Beltran, Pence, Bourn, Upton, Rasmus et al, were more worth the prospect price tag. It actually was a pretty loaded outfield market and Melky was about 7th best on that list, so let him continue to build value for a future trade or maybe he helps you make a playoff run next year? No harm done having Melky around for a while longer.
Frenchy
Dayton's Price tag: See Melky Cabrera and double it.
The Rest of the League's Response: Very funny Dayton, do you realize that I'm going to use him only as a platoon outfielder to hit against soft-tossing lefties. No really Dayton, he's not an everyday player. Dayton everyone in the league passed on him except for you. Are you serious, our #1 pitching prospect for him, this conversation is over.
The Reality: Any other GM in baseball in the Royals situation would have traded Frenchy for a AA lefty bullpen arm, moved Melky to RF and immediately called up Lorenzo Cain. But this is the love affair that is Dayton Moore & Jeff Francouer. I'm willing to admit that he has played pretty well this year, much better than anyone expected, and I love watching him throw people out at the plate, but the thought of negotiating a 2+ year deal with him at the end of the year is just scary. Or even worse, the thought of watching him hit .180 in September while Cain rides the bench or stays in AAA and then execising his mutual option. The only way I like this is if you're a really cunning GM who wants to preserve Cain's value and include him in a big blockbuster deal this offseason for a starting pitcher because you know the Frenchy/Melky combo is more reliable and only costs a few mil. But I don't see that coming from Dayton and Frenchy has created an unnecessary bottleneck and if he continues to play well will simply be too expensive at the end of the year, but if he plays poorly will also be too expensive. I just don't see how the Royals come out on top with this situation.
Jeff Francis
Dayton's Price: A toolsy 2B in AA plus another bullpen arm.
The Rest of the League's Response: Again, Dayton we like the signing, we all give you props for getting Francis this offseason on the cheap, but what exactly is your leverage here? If we don't give you our best young infield prospect, you'll keep him and maybe not loose 100 games? Take our 7th best outfield prospect in low A ball and move on with life.
The Reality: There might never have been a real Jeff Francis Market. I'd like to believe that if you can trade Jason Marquis and Doug F-ing Fister for something then Francis is worth a prospect, but other teams also might not have been buying the "Jeff Francis difference maker" storyline. The truth is that the chances of Jeff Francis being more help than your best AAA pitcher are very slim. The problem here is the same as Jeff Francouer; if he pitches well you might win a few more games in September, but he'll cost too much to re-sign and if sucks it up or gets hurt, you could have gotten the same from Mazarro or O'Sullivan and had the prospect and a few 100K to boot. I think what happened is that Francis' last good start came too late, he needed two or three really good starts right before the deadline in order to sucker any team into giving up a prospect, but that didn't happen and there never was much on the table for Francis.
Bruce Chen
Dayton's Price: Same as Francis plus some icing.
The Rest of the League's Response: Dayton did you see his last start vs. Boston 4 IP, 10 ER, nuff said. Brian Cashman continually forwarded the box score to Dayton via text message until he stopped calling.
The Reality: Contrary to the Jeff Francis situation, Chen's implosion in Boston came just in time for any potential suitors to see this and pull all offers off the table and move on to the next veteran lefty. His 3.3 ERA looked great and then came the Boston game, after which his 4.3 ERA didn't look so good. You can never be sure, but if I were about to take a prospect gamble on Bruce Chen and then saw that game, I would immediately delete Dayton from my speed dial. Dayton probably didn't adjust his price on Chen post Boston Massacre and surprisingly (only so to Dayton) no teams called on Chen's availability.
The best thing to come from this trade deadline is that Mike Aviles found a good home and no longer has to watch Chris Getz hit four infield/bunt singles per week while he and Mitch play five-card-draw waiting to pinch run for Billy Butler in the 9th. Other than that, nothing happened. It may play out to be a shrewed move when Dayton trades Lorenzo Cain back to Milwaukee for Zack Greinke and Melky and Frenchy get even better next year. But it could also turn out to be a complete waste of time as Frenchy signs with Philly in the offseason for more money, or Melky decides to go back to eating roasted chickens two at a time, Chen and Francis move on and the books are closed on those players. We'll just have to wait and see.
Melky
Dayton's Price: I want a high upside MLB ready starting pitcher.
The Rest of the League's Response: Yes Dayton, everyone would love to turn a million dollar gamble and half a season from a slightly above average CF into a starting pitcher, but what you really get is Vin Mazarro or someone who throws 100 MPH, but has more walks than strike-outs pitching down in AA.
The Reality: Dayton probably played this one well, there was just simply no reason give away Melky for anything less than real talent. He's cheap, under team control and if he continues to play like this will be worth as much during the offseason or at next year's trade deadline. Also, I'm guessing that no one in the league really bought the whole "Melky finally figured it out" storyline and decided the better options of Beltran, Pence, Bourn, Upton, Rasmus et al, were more worth the prospect price tag. It actually was a pretty loaded outfield market and Melky was about 7th best on that list, so let him continue to build value for a future trade or maybe he helps you make a playoff run next year? No harm done having Melky around for a while longer.
Frenchy
Dayton's Price tag: See Melky Cabrera and double it.
The Rest of the League's Response: Very funny Dayton, do you realize that I'm going to use him only as a platoon outfielder to hit against soft-tossing lefties. No really Dayton, he's not an everyday player. Dayton everyone in the league passed on him except for you. Are you serious, our #1 pitching prospect for him, this conversation is over.
The Reality: Any other GM in baseball in the Royals situation would have traded Frenchy for a AA lefty bullpen arm, moved Melky to RF and immediately called up Lorenzo Cain. But this is the love affair that is Dayton Moore & Jeff Francouer. I'm willing to admit that he has played pretty well this year, much better than anyone expected, and I love watching him throw people out at the plate, but the thought of negotiating a 2+ year deal with him at the end of the year is just scary. Or even worse, the thought of watching him hit .180 in September while Cain rides the bench or stays in AAA and then execising his mutual option. The only way I like this is if you're a really cunning GM who wants to preserve Cain's value and include him in a big blockbuster deal this offseason for a starting pitcher because you know the Frenchy/Melky combo is more reliable and only costs a few mil. But I don't see that coming from Dayton and Frenchy has created an unnecessary bottleneck and if he continues to play well will simply be too expensive at the end of the year, but if he plays poorly will also be too expensive. I just don't see how the Royals come out on top with this situation.
Jeff Francis
Dayton's Price: A toolsy 2B in AA plus another bullpen arm.
The Rest of the League's Response: Again, Dayton we like the signing, we all give you props for getting Francis this offseason on the cheap, but what exactly is your leverage here? If we don't give you our best young infield prospect, you'll keep him and maybe not loose 100 games? Take our 7th best outfield prospect in low A ball and move on with life.
The Reality: There might never have been a real Jeff Francis Market. I'd like to believe that if you can trade Jason Marquis and Doug F-ing Fister for something then Francis is worth a prospect, but other teams also might not have been buying the "Jeff Francis difference maker" storyline. The truth is that the chances of Jeff Francis being more help than your best AAA pitcher are very slim. The problem here is the same as Jeff Francouer; if he pitches well you might win a few more games in September, but he'll cost too much to re-sign and if sucks it up or gets hurt, you could have gotten the same from Mazarro or O'Sullivan and had the prospect and a few 100K to boot. I think what happened is that Francis' last good start came too late, he needed two or three really good starts right before the deadline in order to sucker any team into giving up a prospect, but that didn't happen and there never was much on the table for Francis.
Bruce Chen
Dayton's Price: Same as Francis plus some icing.
The Rest of the League's Response: Dayton did you see his last start vs. Boston 4 IP, 10 ER, nuff said. Brian Cashman continually forwarded the box score to Dayton via text message until he stopped calling.
The Reality: Contrary to the Jeff Francis situation, Chen's implosion in Boston came just in time for any potential suitors to see this and pull all offers off the table and move on to the next veteran lefty. His 3.3 ERA looked great and then came the Boston game, after which his 4.3 ERA didn't look so good. You can never be sure, but if I were about to take a prospect gamble on Bruce Chen and then saw that game, I would immediately delete Dayton from my speed dial. Dayton probably didn't adjust his price on Chen post Boston Massacre and surprisingly (only so to Dayton) no teams called on Chen's availability.
The best thing to come from this trade deadline is that Mike Aviles found a good home and no longer has to watch Chris Getz hit four infield/bunt singles per week while he and Mitch play five-card-draw waiting to pinch run for Billy Butler in the 9th. Other than that, nothing happened. It may play out to be a shrewed move when Dayton trades Lorenzo Cain back to Milwaukee for Zack Greinke and Melky and Frenchy get even better next year. But it could also turn out to be a complete waste of time as Frenchy signs with Philly in the offseason for more money, or Melky decides to go back to eating roasted chickens two at a time, Chen and Francis move on and the books are closed on those players. We'll just have to wait and see.
Monday, July 25, 2011
Obligatory Trade Deadline Special
This is the week we've all been waiting for. We've been watching one of the worst teams in baseball for 100 games, but now that time and perseverance will pay off as we get to answer the 99 cent question: will Frenchy or Melky go? It's like waiting to see the final episode of season 3 of your favorite cable TV cop-doctor-lawyer drama; will they kill-off Billy or Jimmy? Are Brad and Amber going to get married? It is the Royals, so it's much more like the season finale of Law and Order SVU than the Sopranos, but we're Royals junkies so we take what we can get.
There are just certian things you have to do as a syndicated Google Kansas City Royals beat blogger, and one of those is come-up with a trade deadline special. Guessing the correct outcomes could win you that Pulitzer you've been working so hard for, and it will also provide material to get you through the next few weeks of another lost baseball season. We've all been waiting for one more opportunity to ridicule Dayton Moore, so now's the time. If you want an honest analysis of what types of trades the Royals debating look here, but the PBR doesn't analyze prospects and trading just one player having a decent season gets you five minutes on Baseball Toninght, followed by six years of Sean O'Sullivan.
In keeping with the PBR's gun-slinger tactics we're prepared to graduate from Dayton Moore to Brian Cashman status. The Royals actually have more prospects and more salary room than the New York Yankees, so why not act the part. Dayton's tenure has provided nothing more than 90-100 loss seasons and one brief shining moment as having assembled the best minor league talent pool in baseball. If there isn't a sense of urgency in Moore, then there should be. Prospects are not always like fine wine, most times in fact they spoil and make you wish you had traded them when they were worth something. The Royals have the chance to pull off a memorable season next year. The All Star game is coming to town (this will not happen again for another 40 years), Eric Hosmer is ready to be KC's Super Star, the team is young and ready to win, they just need a few more horses. The answer is to trade for whatever makes you better now, the Future be damed. Trade 2014 for 2012, please Dayton, I can't watch for another year like this one. My answer: get Ubaldo Jimenez AND Wandy Rodriguez. Don't mess around with just one, get them both. I completely acknowledge that there is a huge risk involved here, but 2012 would suddenly look very interesting. They are the two best starters out there and they'll both be arond for a couple of years, so how do you do it?
Part One, Ubaldo: This is the player that you waste all of your time developing to hope one day makes it to the majors and signs a team friendly contract. The Rockies want a King's Ransom, well give it to them. Four of our top 10 prospects, fine!!! Are you overpaying? Absolutely. But that's what you do when you make the here-and-now important. Hosmer, Duffy and Moustakas are off limits, everyone else is in play. My package would be either Montgomery OR Wil Myers, Luke Hochever (they can hope, I'm done), two more from the bottom end of our top 10 prospects and throw in a Blake Wood for icing. Would that get you Ubaldo? It might. Could it cost more? Probably. The point is not what it costs, but what it might net you in return. This is the type of pitcher everyone dreams about having to start game one of a play-off series. And since we have entered the mindset of Brian Cashman, we know that you only develop prospects for the sole purpose of trading to get the Ubaldo Jimenez-types of the world. The Royals assets are two-fold; an abundance of young talent and no long-term money commitments. The difference between another trade deadline which involves the Royals selling on the likes of Bruce Chen, and one in which we find the Royals looking for that extra piece to solidfy their playoff run, will be how they use these two assets.
Part Two, Wandy: Wandy is older, more expensive and has much less upside than Ubaldo. In addition, the Houston Astros are in a much, much less enviable situation and should expect returns accordingly. Sorry Houston, a 30 year-old AL #3 starter doesn't get you Ubaldo equivalent returns. That said, he has been a pretty dependable guy and you can have a #5-ish prospect and a couple more top-30 guys. That's it! Obviously, if you get Ubaldo you don't need Wandy, but the strategy is to go all-in and leave nothing to chance. This way you go into next year with a rotation that goes from Hochevar-Chen-Davies-Francis-O'Sullivan to the slightly more respectabe Ubaldo-Wandy-Felipe-Duffy-Anyone starting five. Not bad right, maybe #5 is Hochevar, maybe Mongomery, maybe Aaron Crow, but the much more important question is answered; YOU KNOW WHO YOUR #1 IS!!! This is the question which the Royals absolutely must answer if next season is going to look different than this one (and 25 others). Who cares who your #3-#5 pithcers are, in order to be a winner you have to know who your top-end is. And the Royals just don't know that right now. Sure you can dream on the likes of Duffy, Montgomery, Paulino, but with guys like Ubaldo and Wandy your dreams are less fantasy and more reality.
Emptying most of the top end of your farm system could be a huge mistake, but I think the reward is worth the risk in the case of the Royals. Pulling off one of these moves would be the talk of baseball and send a message to take note of the 2012 Royals throughout MLB. Trading for both would be insane, but my patience has run thin. I'm impressed with Hosmer, Duffy, not so much Moustakas - but I'm still optimistic. However, 2012 still holds too many contingencies for my liking and finding a true ACE via the trade market should be Dayton's biggest task. Flip a coin and throw darts over Frenchy and Melky and do the same for Francis and Chen. Kudos Dayton, you have done a fantasic job with getting milage out of seemingly washed up veterans, but all of the Frenchys, Melkys, Chens and Betemits will not, and have not, taken us even one step closer to becoming winners. Intelligent small market baseball dicates that you develop from within and follow the Tampa Bay blueprint, but at some point you have to cash in those chips and take a big step forward. That time is now.
There are just certian things you have to do as a syndicated Google Kansas City Royals beat blogger, and one of those is come-up with a trade deadline special. Guessing the correct outcomes could win you that Pulitzer you've been working so hard for, and it will also provide material to get you through the next few weeks of another lost baseball season. We've all been waiting for one more opportunity to ridicule Dayton Moore, so now's the time. If you want an honest analysis of what types of trades the Royals debating look here, but the PBR doesn't analyze prospects and trading just one player having a decent season gets you five minutes on Baseball Toninght, followed by six years of Sean O'Sullivan.
In keeping with the PBR's gun-slinger tactics we're prepared to graduate from Dayton Moore to Brian Cashman status. The Royals actually have more prospects and more salary room than the New York Yankees, so why not act the part. Dayton's tenure has provided nothing more than 90-100 loss seasons and one brief shining moment as having assembled the best minor league talent pool in baseball. If there isn't a sense of urgency in Moore, then there should be. Prospects are not always like fine wine, most times in fact they spoil and make you wish you had traded them when they were worth something. The Royals have the chance to pull off a memorable season next year. The All Star game is coming to town (this will not happen again for another 40 years), Eric Hosmer is ready to be KC's Super Star, the team is young and ready to win, they just need a few more horses. The answer is to trade for whatever makes you better now, the Future be damed. Trade 2014 for 2012, please Dayton, I can't watch for another year like this one. My answer: get Ubaldo Jimenez AND Wandy Rodriguez. Don't mess around with just one, get them both. I completely acknowledge that there is a huge risk involved here, but 2012 would suddenly look very interesting. They are the two best starters out there and they'll both be arond for a couple of years, so how do you do it?
Part One, Ubaldo: This is the player that you waste all of your time developing to hope one day makes it to the majors and signs a team friendly contract. The Rockies want a King's Ransom, well give it to them. Four of our top 10 prospects, fine!!! Are you overpaying? Absolutely. But that's what you do when you make the here-and-now important. Hosmer, Duffy and Moustakas are off limits, everyone else is in play. My package would be either Montgomery OR Wil Myers, Luke Hochever (they can hope, I'm done), two more from the bottom end of our top 10 prospects and throw in a Blake Wood for icing. Would that get you Ubaldo? It might. Could it cost more? Probably. The point is not what it costs, but what it might net you in return. This is the type of pitcher everyone dreams about having to start game one of a play-off series. And since we have entered the mindset of Brian Cashman, we know that you only develop prospects for the sole purpose of trading to get the Ubaldo Jimenez-types of the world. The Royals assets are two-fold; an abundance of young talent and no long-term money commitments. The difference between another trade deadline which involves the Royals selling on the likes of Bruce Chen, and one in which we find the Royals looking for that extra piece to solidfy their playoff run, will be how they use these two assets.
Part Two, Wandy: Wandy is older, more expensive and has much less upside than Ubaldo. In addition, the Houston Astros are in a much, much less enviable situation and should expect returns accordingly. Sorry Houston, a 30 year-old AL #3 starter doesn't get you Ubaldo equivalent returns. That said, he has been a pretty dependable guy and you can have a #5-ish prospect and a couple more top-30 guys. That's it! Obviously, if you get Ubaldo you don't need Wandy, but the strategy is to go all-in and leave nothing to chance. This way you go into next year with a rotation that goes from Hochevar-Chen-Davies-Francis-O'Sullivan to the slightly more respectabe Ubaldo-Wandy-Felipe-Duffy-Anyone starting five. Not bad right, maybe #5 is Hochevar, maybe Mongomery, maybe Aaron Crow, but the much more important question is answered; YOU KNOW WHO YOUR #1 IS!!! This is the question which the Royals absolutely must answer if next season is going to look different than this one (and 25 others). Who cares who your #3-#5 pithcers are, in order to be a winner you have to know who your top-end is. And the Royals just don't know that right now. Sure you can dream on the likes of Duffy, Montgomery, Paulino, but with guys like Ubaldo and Wandy your dreams are less fantasy and more reality.
Emptying most of the top end of your farm system could be a huge mistake, but I think the reward is worth the risk in the case of the Royals. Pulling off one of these moves would be the talk of baseball and send a message to take note of the 2012 Royals throughout MLB. Trading for both would be insane, but my patience has run thin. I'm impressed with Hosmer, Duffy, not so much Moustakas - but I'm still optimistic. However, 2012 still holds too many contingencies for my liking and finding a true ACE via the trade market should be Dayton's biggest task. Flip a coin and throw darts over Frenchy and Melky and do the same for Francis and Chen. Kudos Dayton, you have done a fantasic job with getting milage out of seemingly washed up veterans, but all of the Frenchys, Melkys, Chens and Betemits will not, and have not, taken us even one step closer to becoming winners. Intelligent small market baseball dicates that you develop from within and follow the Tampa Bay blueprint, but at some point you have to cash in those chips and take a big step forward. That time is now.
Friday, July 15, 2011
How to Play Bubba Starling
At this point the Royals brass and general followers of the Royals have holed up and tried to figure out how to squeeze some value out of the current roster in the trade market as the deadline approaches. There is always "action available at the betting windows" (this is why you become a GM in the first place) and Dayton is going to come up with something which we can all write about after it occurs. In reality, the return is likely to be mediocre at best. The Royals' best trade equation is still addition by subtraction.
This being said, we believe the Royals should try and break the current practice of letting your first round draft pick sit around and eat Cheez-Its all summer while listening to Scott Boras approved self-esteem books on tape. The Powder Blue Room has come up with a new unique strategy to accomplish two things. One; get Bubba Starling in a minor league uniform and playing baseball. Two; set a precedent for how to deal with high first round picks.
The understood forfeiture of a player's first year in the minors appears to be an underrated hindrance in most organizations. The real reasons are due to gamesmanship or so Scott Boras can appear to earn his fee and all are a major setback in the development of a high school player, especially the toolsy, "athlete" type player. By now the drill is pretty straight forward. The two sides don't even bother talking until late July, where everyone threatens to go to college, go play for the Fort Worth Power Lug Nut Donkey Shoes and re-enter the draft next year, this that and the other before miraculously coming to an agreement right before the signing deadline in middle August.
As Rany on the Royals pointed out, Bubba is your new age "old" guy masquerading as a high school senior. In order for a prospect like Bubba to have a shot at "developing" all the proposed talent he posses, he can't be darn near 20 years old before he plays his first minor league game. The first season is important and it would be important in any sense, but the age of Starling makes it that much more important. So important that we believe the Royals have a legitimate argument to say "Bubba, your value goes considerably down if you don't get a full season in this year".
As a high school draftee, it is unlikely the Royals will have to cough up a major league contract to Bubba. Scott Boras can hand out all the prepared charts and marketing three ring binders he wants. He can give a two hundred slide power point presentation of Bubba Starling highlights with Eye of the Tiger playing as background music, but the bottom line is that it is going to take about $7 or $7.5 million to sign Bubba and get this experiment off the ground.
As the Royals' "Wartime Consigliere" here is how the Powder Blue Room suggests the Royals play it. Back on June 7th, the first day after the draft, you walk in and say "Bubba, here is a contract for $7.5 million. It is on the high side, but you sign that thing with-in two weeks, get in a uniform and it is yours".
Then you tell Bubba the following: "Bubba, the rub here buddy is we don't think you are worth as much if you take this year off. So for every two-weeks you don't sign we take $500,000 off the contract amount. So if you want to go to Nebraska and try and be Tommy Frazier, go ahead, but we value the actual act of playing baseball and you are no spring chicken, so let's get to it".
Scott Boras is a smart guy and gets his fee based on the total amount of the contract. He gives up getting to play super negotiator guy, but all in all he ends up with the same amount of money in his pocket. The Royals potentially overpay a little, but they get a full minor league season out of Bubba and a much better probability he realizes his potential.
You put this in writing and send it to every media outlet and you hold a press conference stating the terms of the deal. Then you stick to it on the following premise: "You are not worth as much if you take the summer off, in our opinion. We offered you big time money, and the only thing you didn't get to do is go through the negotiation dance. Royals fans, don't be discouraged because if he sits the summer out, he was only worth what the reduced contract offer would be. We are not being cheap, in fact we offered to overpay, but in order for these players to realize their potential they have to get started. Surely you understand.".
In the end maybe Team Bubba gets all offended and heads off to Lincoln to get flattened by some freak of nature in costume as a defensive end at Ohio State in the fall. Then in the spring it turns out Bubba isn't that good at baseball anyway and life goes on.
But you have to stick to it. You put the money in escrow and make the terms public so everyone knows that it is about the service, not the money. Spin this thing correctly and the Royals win. Dayton, your Wartime Consigliere doesn't hand out on the record advise very often, but this one could turn you into something big time.
This practice might become all the rage and become known as "The Moore Play". Michael Lewis might write a book about you. Highly paid corporate speaking gigs on negotiating are sure to follow along with offers to broker Middle East peace accords. Perhaps you could start your own compensation consultancy. Do it Dayton, our fee is on the house.
This being said, we believe the Royals should try and break the current practice of letting your first round draft pick sit around and eat Cheez-Its all summer while listening to Scott Boras approved self-esteem books on tape. The Powder Blue Room has come up with a new unique strategy to accomplish two things. One; get Bubba Starling in a minor league uniform and playing baseball. Two; set a precedent for how to deal with high first round picks.
The understood forfeiture of a player's first year in the minors appears to be an underrated hindrance in most organizations. The real reasons are due to gamesmanship or so Scott Boras can appear to earn his fee and all are a major setback in the development of a high school player, especially the toolsy, "athlete" type player. By now the drill is pretty straight forward. The two sides don't even bother talking until late July, where everyone threatens to go to college, go play for the Fort Worth Power Lug Nut Donkey Shoes and re-enter the draft next year, this that and the other before miraculously coming to an agreement right before the signing deadline in middle August.
As Rany on the Royals pointed out, Bubba is your new age "old" guy masquerading as a high school senior. In order for a prospect like Bubba to have a shot at "developing" all the proposed talent he posses, he can't be darn near 20 years old before he plays his first minor league game. The first season is important and it would be important in any sense, but the age of Starling makes it that much more important. So important that we believe the Royals have a legitimate argument to say "Bubba, your value goes considerably down if you don't get a full season in this year".
As a high school draftee, it is unlikely the Royals will have to cough up a major league contract to Bubba. Scott Boras can hand out all the prepared charts and marketing three ring binders he wants. He can give a two hundred slide power point presentation of Bubba Starling highlights with Eye of the Tiger playing as background music, but the bottom line is that it is going to take about $7 or $7.5 million to sign Bubba and get this experiment off the ground.
As the Royals' "Wartime Consigliere" here is how the Powder Blue Room suggests the Royals play it. Back on June 7th, the first day after the draft, you walk in and say "Bubba, here is a contract for $7.5 million. It is on the high side, but you sign that thing with-in two weeks, get in a uniform and it is yours".
Then you tell Bubba the following: "Bubba, the rub here buddy is we don't think you are worth as much if you take this year off. So for every two-weeks you don't sign we take $500,000 off the contract amount. So if you want to go to Nebraska and try and be Tommy Frazier, go ahead, but we value the actual act of playing baseball and you are no spring chicken, so let's get to it".
Scott Boras is a smart guy and gets his fee based on the total amount of the contract. He gives up getting to play super negotiator guy, but all in all he ends up with the same amount of money in his pocket. The Royals potentially overpay a little, but they get a full minor league season out of Bubba and a much better probability he realizes his potential.
You put this in writing and send it to every media outlet and you hold a press conference stating the terms of the deal. Then you stick to it on the following premise: "You are not worth as much if you take the summer off, in our opinion. We offered you big time money, and the only thing you didn't get to do is go through the negotiation dance. Royals fans, don't be discouraged because if he sits the summer out, he was only worth what the reduced contract offer would be. We are not being cheap, in fact we offered to overpay, but in order for these players to realize their potential they have to get started. Surely you understand.".
In the end maybe Team Bubba gets all offended and heads off to Lincoln to get flattened by some freak of nature in costume as a defensive end at Ohio State in the fall. Then in the spring it turns out Bubba isn't that good at baseball anyway and life goes on.
But you have to stick to it. You put the money in escrow and make the terms public so everyone knows that it is about the service, not the money. Spin this thing correctly and the Royals win. Dayton, your Wartime Consigliere doesn't hand out on the record advise very often, but this one could turn you into something big time.
This practice might become all the rage and become known as "The Moore Play". Michael Lewis might write a book about you. Highly paid corporate speaking gigs on negotiating are sure to follow along with offers to broker Middle East peace accords. Perhaps you could start your own compensation consultancy. Do it Dayton, our fee is on the house.
Thursday, July 14, 2011
Baseball is back!
Finally! Here we go with the second half of the season, nothing has changed but there are still a lot of games to play and who really knows what to expect. The PBR feels all of this "analysis" is getting a little stale and in the words of Ned Yost we're going to try and "freshen things up a bit." Here we go with some random thoughts from the first game after the all-star break.
Bruce Chen could get away with murder, the first two innings: 5 baserunners, one thrown out at the plate and no runs.
The Royals start out by capitalizing on errors and scoring a couple of greasy runs, do I sense a repeat of the hot start in April???
Hosmer is going with the goatee style facial hair and giving up on the full beard, I'm not sure if I like the change but I guess a full beard in KC in August is suicide - let's see how it goes.
Routine ground ball to Chris Getz turns into a hit, defensive specialist you say Mr. Yost?? Sorry, I just can't get off the Mike Aviles bandwagon.
Moustakas says thanks for the double Delmon. Brayan Pena is my favorite player, hands down. Another slightly unearned run. 3-0, that's all Chen needs.
Chen just blew away someone with an 84mph fastball, I don't get it. Two more runners LOB, Chen is making it look easy, Yost was right; if he hadn't gone on the DL we'd be fighting for first place.
Classic Getz! Groundball to SS, bobble and he beats it out for a hit. Ned will applaud the speed and athleticism while ignoring the .291 SLG%.
The "AT&T trivia" has finally stumped Ryan and Frank. Normally it is more or less a chance for them to show off their baseball knowledge and defeat the purpose of fan trivia by shouting out every possible answer until they're forced to post the results. Oh wait, Frank just informed us that he knew the answer all along, but held it in so we could guess, thanks Frank.
Plouffe! Just like that it's 4-3 and Chen couldn't quite escape another inning. I was just working on the terms of a new 3-year $20 million contract to offer Chen - guess I'll keep that in the bank.
Frank and Ryan are debating the merits and tactics behind advancing runners from second to third with no outs for the 107th time this year. Surprisingly, Frenchy did not get the job done.
Royals default staff ace goes 5IP 4ER, good things are in store for the rotation.
Please Frank and Ryan, I'm begging you, no more Frenchy clubhouse leader talk! I can't hear it anymore. You can't talk about leaders on teams with the 3rd worst record in baseball; they are failing at leading or they're not leaders. You can't have it both ways. "The leader of the Greek economy really has his Economics Ministry feeling good about themselves."
Ned's really working those bullpen match-ups in a 8-3 game. Gotta play the percentages, and burn out your pen in the first game after the all-star break.
I'm really starting to worry about Butler, he seems disinterested in hitting baseballs. Frenchy is the leader, Gordon is now a better hitter and Hosmer isn't moving from first base, what's his role??? Turn that frown upside-down Billy!
Bullpen not impressive, offense goes to sleep, Royals lose. That game was pretty much the opposite of what would make me excited to tune in for the second half. More of the same, another day in the life of a Royals fan.
Bruce Chen could get away with murder, the first two innings: 5 baserunners, one thrown out at the plate and no runs.
The Royals start out by capitalizing on errors and scoring a couple of greasy runs, do I sense a repeat of the hot start in April???
Hosmer is going with the goatee style facial hair and giving up on the full beard, I'm not sure if I like the change but I guess a full beard in KC in August is suicide - let's see how it goes.
Routine ground ball to Chris Getz turns into a hit, defensive specialist you say Mr. Yost?? Sorry, I just can't get off the Mike Aviles bandwagon.
Moustakas says thanks for the double Delmon. Brayan Pena is my favorite player, hands down. Another slightly unearned run. 3-0, that's all Chen needs.
Chen just blew away someone with an 84mph fastball, I don't get it. Two more runners LOB, Chen is making it look easy, Yost was right; if he hadn't gone on the DL we'd be fighting for first place.
Classic Getz! Groundball to SS, bobble and he beats it out for a hit. Ned will applaud the speed and athleticism while ignoring the .291 SLG%.
The "AT&T trivia" has finally stumped Ryan and Frank. Normally it is more or less a chance for them to show off their baseball knowledge and defeat the purpose of fan trivia by shouting out every possible answer until they're forced to post the results. Oh wait, Frank just informed us that he knew the answer all along, but held it in so we could guess, thanks Frank.
Plouffe! Just like that it's 4-3 and Chen couldn't quite escape another inning. I was just working on the terms of a new 3-year $20 million contract to offer Chen - guess I'll keep that in the bank.
Frank and Ryan are debating the merits and tactics behind advancing runners from second to third with no outs for the 107th time this year. Surprisingly, Frenchy did not get the job done.
Royals default staff ace goes 5IP 4ER, good things are in store for the rotation.
Please Frank and Ryan, I'm begging you, no more Frenchy clubhouse leader talk! I can't hear it anymore. You can't talk about leaders on teams with the 3rd worst record in baseball; they are failing at leading or they're not leaders. You can't have it both ways. "The leader of the Greek economy really has his Economics Ministry feeling good about themselves."
Ned's really working those bullpen match-ups in a 8-3 game. Gotta play the percentages, and burn out your pen in the first game after the all-star break.
I'm really starting to worry about Butler, he seems disinterested in hitting baseballs. Frenchy is the leader, Gordon is now a better hitter and Hosmer isn't moving from first base, what's his role??? Turn that frown upside-down Billy!
Bullpen not impressive, offense goes to sleep, Royals lose. That game was pretty much the opposite of what would make me excited to tune in for the second half. More of the same, another day in the life of a Royals fan.
Saturday, July 9, 2011
Yostian Leadoff Logic
It's easy to pick-on managers of losing teams and single out certain idiosyncrasies as making a much bigger impact on the team's performance than they actually do. This is admittedly what I'm trying to do here, but Ned's insistence on batting Chris Getz in the leadoff spot has made the team worse and, by Yost's own admission, doesn't make sense. Let's take a look at how Ned justifies his constantly evolving and shifting logic on who the team's leadoff hitter should be:
“When I looked at it, I thought, ‘OK, as good of a hitter as Mike is, I don’t really have any leadoff candidates outside of (Chris) Getz — because Getzie has some speed and can steal some bases.’ But Mike has more offensive capabilities.”
This was coming out of spring training and as it turns out might have been the second most intelligent thing Yost goes on to say all year regarding leadoff hitters. It was these types of comments that gave me hope in Yost's ability to be a good manager and not put people like Getz in the leadoff spot just because of the age old baseball wisdom that leadoff hitters have to be slap-hitting speedsters. Ned would obviously abandon this logic, even though it still stands true to this day that Mike Aviles IS a better hitter than Chris Getz.
“I’d rather have him further down the lineup,” Yost admitted, “but I want to have guys who get on base at the top of the lineup…
“It doesn’t make any sense having a .290 or .300 on-base guy leadoff.”
Pure Genius! Ned moving Alex Gordon to the leadoff spot was by far and away the most intelligent managerial decision he's made as a KC Royal. He wanted a guy who got on base to hit first, he wanted one of the better hitters on the team to hit the most often. It was smart. It was going well. And then....
"There’s no magic cure, no magic elixir, that’s going to fix everything,” Yost said. “But this changes it around and gives it a bit of a different look. We’ll just see if we can freshen it up a little bit. It’s been stale lately.”
This is where Ned takes a turn for the worse. The stale line-up shuffle logic??? It's time-honored managerial strategy 101. The problem is there wasn't a problem. If it ain't broke, just break it. The Gordon leadoff move was going along swimmingly, it just happened to coincide with a Hosmer slump, an even bigger Jeff Francouer slump, sending Mike Aviles down thus ending the effective Getz-Aviles platoon and taking one of the team's best hitters out of the line-up (Wilson Betemit). But no, Yost wouldn't see that, instead he would just ramble off something about how to "freshen up" a line up and thus give-up on his previous logic which led him to his best decision in hitting Godon leadoff.
“Melky is as clutch of a hitter as we’ve got,” Yost said. “That’s what you look at late in the game when the top of the order comes up. You’re trying to get your best hitters to the top of your order and let them produce.”
This was the (brief) result of the Gordon switch which again contained some well founded logic and wasn't bad because it moved-up Hosmer to #2 and placed Gordon and Butler in the middle instead of the streaky Frenchy. Though you can sense his logic starting to falter here as he talks about "clutch hitting" from the leadoff spot and implies that it must have been Gordon's lack of clutch hitting which led to the "stale" line-up. This line-up lasted five games, the Royals went 2-3 and nothing bad really happend. Then the Royals head to San Diego and the National League rules, Getz is riding a modest hot-streak, and Ned Yost loses his mind. His answer to not having Billy Butler in the line-up is to move Chris Getz to the #2 spot??? The Royals lose all three games and Yost decides to move Getz to the leadoff spot on July 1, 2011...
“He’s hot right now,” manager Ned Yost said.
Forget everything I said before, Getzie is HOT, HOT, HOT. He's the leadoff solution. What I said about having your best hitters and on-base guys, scratch that here is my new theory...
"You spread 'em out more," Yost said. "I want speed and athleticism at the top and I want guys that can at least have a chance to produce down at the bottom and keep it going."
What does this mean? Producers at the bottom and athletes at the top? Chris Getz can't produce, so you might as well lead him off and make sure he hits more often because he is fast? Nope, it turns out that Chris Getz IS a producer and Ned wants that all important BA with runners in scoring position at the top...
“You look every year, and the leaders in RBIs are basically the same. The leaders in home runs will basically be the same. Batting average, the same thing. Year in, year out. But runners in scoring position changes every stinkin’ year.”
This is said in reference to Getzie's uncanny ability to hit with runners in scoring position. You can tell Ned is confused here, he has gone past the point of no return and is just saying things for the sake of it. Here is an interesting stat which might, just maybe, be slightly more applicable to your leadoff hitter. Chris Getz when hittting first:
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 7/9/2011.
Things like this are surely symptomatic of a losing team and in no way would a change lead to a winning team, but Ned went from logical, to genius, and finally has reverted back to the rantings of an illogical, stubborn, typical baseball manager. This is not what we need from Ned. It's obviously not helping the team to have YOUR WORST hitter batting leadoff just because he runs fast. I don't know what's next for the Royals at the leadoff spot but anything is better than Chris Getz.
Ned on Mike Aviles:
“When I looked at it, I thought, ‘OK, as good of a hitter as Mike is, I don’t really have any leadoff candidates outside of (Chris) Getz — because Getzie has some speed and can steal some bases.’ But Mike has more offensive capabilities.”
This was coming out of spring training and as it turns out might have been the second most intelligent thing Yost goes on to say all year regarding leadoff hitters. It was these types of comments that gave me hope in Yost's ability to be a good manager and not put people like Getz in the leadoff spot just because of the age old baseball wisdom that leadoff hitters have to be slap-hitting speedsters. Ned would obviously abandon this logic, even though it still stands true to this day that Mike Aviles IS a better hitter than Chris Getz.
Ned on Gordon:
“I’d rather have him further down the lineup,” Yost admitted, “but I want to have guys who get on base at the top of the lineup…
“It doesn’t make any sense having a .290 or .300 on-base guy leadoff.”
Pure Genius! Ned moving Alex Gordon to the leadoff spot was by far and away the most intelligent managerial decision he's made as a KC Royal. He wanted a guy who got on base to hit first, he wanted one of the better hitters on the team to hit the most often. It was smart. It was going well. And then....
Ned on taking Gordon out of the leadoff spot:
"There’s no magic cure, no magic elixir, that’s going to fix everything,” Yost said. “But this changes it around and gives it a bit of a different look. We’ll just see if we can freshen it up a little bit. It’s been stale lately.”
This is where Ned takes a turn for the worse. The stale line-up shuffle logic??? It's time-honored managerial strategy 101. The problem is there wasn't a problem. If it ain't broke, just break it. The Gordon leadoff move was going along swimmingly, it just happened to coincide with a Hosmer slump, an even bigger Jeff Francouer slump, sending Mike Aviles down thus ending the effective Getz-Aviles platoon and taking one of the team's best hitters out of the line-up (Wilson Betemit). But no, Yost wouldn't see that, instead he would just ramble off something about how to "freshen up" a line up and thus give-up on his previous logic which led him to his best decision in hitting Godon leadoff.
Ned on Melky:
“Melky is as clutch of a hitter as we’ve got,” Yost said. “That’s what you look at late in the game when the top of the order comes up. You’re trying to get your best hitters to the top of your order and let them produce.”
This was the (brief) result of the Gordon switch which again contained some well founded logic and wasn't bad because it moved-up Hosmer to #2 and placed Gordon and Butler in the middle instead of the streaky Frenchy. Though you can sense his logic starting to falter here as he talks about "clutch hitting" from the leadoff spot and implies that it must have been Gordon's lack of clutch hitting which led to the "stale" line-up. This line-up lasted five games, the Royals went 2-3 and nothing bad really happend. Then the Royals head to San Diego and the National League rules, Getz is riding a modest hot-streak, and Ned Yost loses his mind. His answer to not having Billy Butler in the line-up is to move Chris Getz to the #2 spot??? The Royals lose all three games and Yost decides to move Getz to the leadoff spot on July 1, 2011...
Ned on Getzie:
“He’s hot right now,” manager Ned Yost said.
Forget everything I said before, Getzie is HOT, HOT, HOT. He's the leadoff solution. What I said about having your best hitters and on-base guys, scratch that here is my new theory...
"You spread 'em out more," Yost said. "I want speed and athleticism at the top and I want guys that can at least have a chance to produce down at the bottom and keep it going."
What does this mean? Producers at the bottom and athletes at the top? Chris Getz can't produce, so you might as well lead him off and make sure he hits more often because he is fast? Nope, it turns out that Chris Getz IS a producer and Ned wants that all important BA with runners in scoring position at the top...
“You look every year, and the leaders in RBIs are basically the same. The leaders in home runs will basically be the same. Batting average, the same thing. Year in, year out. But runners in scoring position changes every stinkin’ year.”
This is said in reference to Getzie's uncanny ability to hit with runners in scoring position. You can tell Ned is confused here, he has gone past the point of no return and is just saying things for the sake of it. Here is an interesting stat which might, just maybe, be slightly more applicable to your leadoff hitter. Chris Getz when hittting first:
Split G GS PA AB BA OBP SLG OPS Batting 1st 26 26 119 101 .168 .252 .208 .460
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 7/9/2011.
Things like this are surely symptomatic of a losing team and in no way would a change lead to a winning team, but Ned went from logical, to genius, and finally has reverted back to the rantings of an illogical, stubborn, typical baseball manager. This is not what we need from Ned. It's obviously not helping the team to have YOUR WORST hitter batting leadoff just because he runs fast. I don't know what's next for the Royals at the leadoff spot but anything is better than Chris Getz.
Thursday, June 30, 2011
Halfway to Nowhere
81 down, 81 to go. Here we are coming off what was maybe the worst series of the year looking toward a second half filled with little to be excited about. Let's just see what's going on in Yosty's mind as he readies himself to start the second half and get this ship back on track:
Inside the bathroom of Suite #27 at the Downtown Denver Four Seasons
I'm really ready to kick off this 6-man rotation. I came up with it all on my own. It will work. I have six below average starters, so the way to make it work is to pitch them less often, Ned it's F-ing Managerial Gold. I really didn't want to send my little Duffy down to the minors again, I've really got him on the right track. It was probably all of that Ned Yost Tuff Love ©. It worked on Escobar, it worked on Gordon, it worked on Soria, hasn't worked on Hoch yet, but it will. I'm really having a hard time coming-up with a pet name for Danny Duffy, both first and last name end in a 'y' and I usually just add that to the end of a players name. Do I take off the 'y' and just call him Duff, that's just not Ned Yost enough. I'll keep working on it, there has got to be another way.
"I'll have a Denver Omelet."
Batting orders are so hard. Good thing Butler's not playing today, this gives me another opportunity to bat Chris Getz #2. Getzy has been on fire, got that BA all the way up to .270 and he can hit-and-run so well, just the perfect #2 hitter. If I could have kids again, they would be just like Chris Getz. I wish I had nine guys just like Getzy playing everyday. Well, maybe 5 Chris Getz clones and 4 Jeff Francouer clones. That team would win. I've got a hunch today: we're going to bat Melky #4, Alex is #3 and Alcides will leadoff. I've just got this hunch and my momma always told me to play your hunches. Man, a Denver omelet really does taste better in Devner. I wonder if French fries taste better in France. I need a shower.
Tomorrow's another day, Tomorrow IS another day, Tomorrow IS ANOTHER day. I don't trust that shaving gel, I stick with the foam. Old Spice aftershave smells good. I'm going to get through to that punk kid Hosmer today. What does he think he's doing swinging at all of those pitches. I keep telling him this isn't the minors Eric, just watch how Chris Getz hits, take your time. Hosmer doesn't listen. I can't believe Butler's still mad at me for that astronaut comment. He can't play first base, Ned's decision is final. If I was Dayton Moore I'd trade Billy and Eric both, they're just a couple of babies who would never have made it in my day. All we have to do is win 15 in a row and we're back in this thing, I don't know what everybody is so worried about.
Inside the bathroom of Suite #27 at the Downtown Denver Four Seasons
I'm really ready to kick off this 6-man rotation. I came up with it all on my own. It will work. I have six below average starters, so the way to make it work is to pitch them less often, Ned it's F-ing Managerial Gold. I really didn't want to send my little Duffy down to the minors again, I've really got him on the right track. It was probably all of that Ned Yost Tuff Love ©. It worked on Escobar, it worked on Gordon, it worked on Soria, hasn't worked on Hoch yet, but it will. I'm really having a hard time coming-up with a pet name for Danny Duffy, both first and last name end in a 'y' and I usually just add that to the end of a players name. Do I take off the 'y' and just call him Duff, that's just not Ned Yost enough. I'll keep working on it, there has got to be another way.
Ned get's Hungry and heads to the lobby for breakfast
"I'll have a Denver Omelet."
Batting orders are so hard. Good thing Butler's not playing today, this gives me another opportunity to bat Chris Getz #2. Getzy has been on fire, got that BA all the way up to .270 and he can hit-and-run so well, just the perfect #2 hitter. If I could have kids again, they would be just like Chris Getz. I wish I had nine guys just like Getzy playing everyday. Well, maybe 5 Chris Getz clones and 4 Jeff Francouer clones. That team would win. I've got a hunch today: we're going to bat Melky #4, Alex is #3 and Alcides will leadoff. I've just got this hunch and my momma always told me to play your hunches. Man, a Denver omelet really does taste better in Devner. I wonder if French fries taste better in France. I need a shower.
Ned heads back upstairs for a quick shower and shave before BP
Tomorrow's another day, Tomorrow IS another day, Tomorrow IS ANOTHER day. I don't trust that shaving gel, I stick with the foam. Old Spice aftershave smells good. I'm going to get through to that punk kid Hosmer today. What does he think he's doing swinging at all of those pitches. I keep telling him this isn't the minors Eric, just watch how Chris Getz hits, take your time. Hosmer doesn't listen. I can't believe Butler's still mad at me for that astronaut comment. He can't play first base, Ned's decision is final. If I was Dayton Moore I'd trade Billy and Eric both, they're just a couple of babies who would never have made it in my day. All we have to do is win 15 in a row and we're back in this thing, I don't know what everybody is so worried about.
Sunday, June 26, 2011
Bare With Me
So the Royals close out a fairly lackluster homestand in which the Arizona Diamondbacks demonstrated for us what good young teams look like and then the Cubs came to town to boost dismal attendance numbers at the K and play to see who is the worst non-Houston Astros Team (KC Wins!). This is not interesting baseball. What makes this season even worse is that it is clearly a year in which the Royals would have had a shot to steal the division had they simply been able to stay around .500. But now they're batting, once again, to stay out of last place. As the trade deadline nears, the Royals will certainly be discussed as sellers and not as buyers, they may be able to sucker someone into Melky Cabrera or Jeff Francis for a prospect or two, but these will all boil down to Shaun O'Sullivan, Vin Mazarro and at best Tim Collins returns. Trading Melky Cabrera-types won't get you to that next level. I believe that it is time for Dayton Moore to be bold and start taking calculated risks that get the 2012 Royals looking like potential contenders. This year the Royals are in a great position as sellers with minor league talent to spare and no big Jose Guillen contracts hanging around so they're not looking to just dump payroll because they have NO payroll. Thanks to Gil Meche's generosity and the trades of Greinke and DeJesus, the team is sporting a payroll of under $36 mil. The lowest in baseball. Now comes the hard part, what do you do with a 2011 budget surplus of $30+ mil???
I said that you were going to have to bare with me on this one. This proposed trade has two parts: the theory and the actuality. First lets start with the theory; Carlos has an inflated contract, the Cubs desperately want rid of him, the Royals have payroll space, there is not one single middling starting pitcher worth paying for in the 2012 free agent class and by the way the Royals need a starter. Who is your projected 2012 KC Royals starting rotating? It's scary, I know. So it could be anyone, but Big Z is just the best case that I've been able to come-up with. One of the big advantages in contract absorption trades is that you won't have to give up much, so the Royals can hold on to all of their precious prospects and let go of maybe two mid-tier guys. Here is how the economics of the trade break down; Carlos is still owed something like $9 mil this year and $18 mil for 2012. Yes, these are big numbers, but the Cubs know they need to eat a good chunk of that if they want to rid themselves of Carlos and get anything in return. So I believe the best way to use the Royals deflated 2011 payroll is to eat a few mil from another team's bad contract this year, while still gaining a much needed asset. If the Royals agree to take on something like half of the contract, that means somewhere in the neighborhood of four million this year and nine next year. I'm just assuming these numbers, but if the Cubs wanted a team to pay much more than that, it would be silly. The point is; who does it hurt if the Royals payroll creeps over $40 mil this year? It's like a tree falling in the woods; the Royals planned to have around a $70 million payroll this year so it seems to me that tacking on a few mil this year will not hurt anyone. If no money is added, David Glass will simply become imperceptibly richer and maybe Christmas bonuses are little better in the executive suite. But that's it, the books will rollover to 2012, and Luke Hochevar will again be our opening day starter. I call this the theory part because it could be any player with an expiring back-loaded contract that is weighing another team down, yet that player is still potentially useful - just not at that price. As for the $9 mil (give or take) in 2012; the Royals will still come into 2012 with one of the lowest payrolls in baseball, unless of course they sign Pujols to play 2B, Prince Fielder to man RF and persuade CC Sabathia to come join the rotation. So if you think you can find a better use of this money, I'm all ears.
I assume that the money won't raise much of an issue here, but a lot of baseball fans probably see the crazy Zambrano and think clubhouse problem; i.e. more Jose Guillen, less Jeff Fancouer. Maybe you can get past this, but you still see his 4.38 ERA and dropping strikeout rate as indicators of a potentially washed-up starting pitcher who won't help the team. And you know what, all of these concerns might be valid. But let's break down what Zambrano has done and just think what he could do for the Royals. Zambrano has never, save a seven inning cup-of-coffee in 2001, had an ERA over 4.00. Never, not once! The only time after he was officially moved to the starting rotation that he has not completed a season with 160+ innings and 28 starts with said sub-4.00 ERA was last year when Lou Pinella went senile for a month and made one of the best pitchers of the last decade into an 8th inning set-up man. If you're still here and have bared with me through all of this, but are not yet convinced that this is an impressive feat then let me tell you why this is so impressive to me. The entire KC Royals starting pitching rotations from the years 2000 through 2010 have been able to accomplish this (sub-4.00 ERA, 160+ innings, 28 starts) exactly SEVEN TIMES! Only three times have been by pitchers not named Zack Greinke or Gil Meche. And since Carlos Zambrano started his streak in 2003 he has been able to accomplish this seven times compared to just five for the Royals. So one starting pitcher has accomplished this feat two more times than all of the starting pitchers for the Royals COMBINED! So yes, I marvel at this achievement. Carlos has stayed healthy and been an above average starting pitcher, with flashes of greatness, for his entire career and still appears to be a useful workhorse. This is exactly the kind of pitcher the Royals need. The issues about his club house presence may or may not be of any real concern, it's hard to tell. But if you choose to believe that he is just a competitive pitcher who wants to win and is in the last year of his contract looking for another big deal then what more could you ask for?
It's a leap-of-faith, I'll grant you that, but based on the above referenced track record do you feel more comfortable penciling-in Vin Mazarro or Carlos Zambrano as you #3 starting pitcher? Do you see more potential for a #2 starter in Luke Hochevar or Zambrano? Looking at the Royals current situation, I feel that they need to start making gambles, and as far as gambles go this is one that has the potential to make a real impact on the team without sacrificing much other than a couple of secondary prospects and only a few million bucks that will hardly be felt by the payroll. Playing the waiting game with pitching prospects is fine, and Duffy has been looking better every time, but you need someone reliable in your rotation and there have been few pitchers as reliable (physically not mentally) as Carlos Zambrano. I think this is the exact situation that can be exploited by a shrewd organization; an unwanted player with a big contract and a team in need of payroll space to sign someone like Pujols or Fielder. It just reeks of desperation. If there is another, better contract dump situation out there please let me know. But this trade deadline I'd love to see Dayton take a risk instead of his past Callaspo-for-O'Sullivan snoozers that will have little impact on keeping 2012 from looking like 2011.
Trade for Carlos Zambrano
I said that you were going to have to bare with me on this one. This proposed trade has two parts: the theory and the actuality. First lets start with the theory; Carlos has an inflated contract, the Cubs desperately want rid of him, the Royals have payroll space, there is not one single middling starting pitcher worth paying for in the 2012 free agent class and by the way the Royals need a starter. Who is your projected 2012 KC Royals starting rotating? It's scary, I know. So it could be anyone, but Big Z is just the best case that I've been able to come-up with. One of the big advantages in contract absorption trades is that you won't have to give up much, so the Royals can hold on to all of their precious prospects and let go of maybe two mid-tier guys. Here is how the economics of the trade break down; Carlos is still owed something like $9 mil this year and $18 mil for 2012. Yes, these are big numbers, but the Cubs know they need to eat a good chunk of that if they want to rid themselves of Carlos and get anything in return. So I believe the best way to use the Royals deflated 2011 payroll is to eat a few mil from another team's bad contract this year, while still gaining a much needed asset. If the Royals agree to take on something like half of the contract, that means somewhere in the neighborhood of four million this year and nine next year. I'm just assuming these numbers, but if the Cubs wanted a team to pay much more than that, it would be silly. The point is; who does it hurt if the Royals payroll creeps over $40 mil this year? It's like a tree falling in the woods; the Royals planned to have around a $70 million payroll this year so it seems to me that tacking on a few mil this year will not hurt anyone. If no money is added, David Glass will simply become imperceptibly richer and maybe Christmas bonuses are little better in the executive suite. But that's it, the books will rollover to 2012, and Luke Hochevar will again be our opening day starter. I call this the theory part because it could be any player with an expiring back-loaded contract that is weighing another team down, yet that player is still potentially useful - just not at that price. As for the $9 mil (give or take) in 2012; the Royals will still come into 2012 with one of the lowest payrolls in baseball, unless of course they sign Pujols to play 2B, Prince Fielder to man RF and persuade CC Sabathia to come join the rotation. So if you think you can find a better use of this money, I'm all ears.
I assume that the money won't raise much of an issue here, but a lot of baseball fans probably see the crazy Zambrano and think clubhouse problem; i.e. more Jose Guillen, less Jeff Fancouer. Maybe you can get past this, but you still see his 4.38 ERA and dropping strikeout rate as indicators of a potentially washed-up starting pitcher who won't help the team. And you know what, all of these concerns might be valid. But let's break down what Zambrano has done and just think what he could do for the Royals. Zambrano has never, save a seven inning cup-of-coffee in 2001, had an ERA over 4.00. Never, not once! The only time after he was officially moved to the starting rotation that he has not completed a season with 160+ innings and 28 starts with said sub-4.00 ERA was last year when Lou Pinella went senile for a month and made one of the best pitchers of the last decade into an 8th inning set-up man. If you're still here and have bared with me through all of this, but are not yet convinced that this is an impressive feat then let me tell you why this is so impressive to me. The entire KC Royals starting pitching rotations from the years 2000 through 2010 have been able to accomplish this (sub-4.00 ERA, 160+ innings, 28 starts) exactly SEVEN TIMES! Only three times have been by pitchers not named Zack Greinke or Gil Meche. And since Carlos Zambrano started his streak in 2003 he has been able to accomplish this seven times compared to just five for the Royals. So one starting pitcher has accomplished this feat two more times than all of the starting pitchers for the Royals COMBINED! So yes, I marvel at this achievement. Carlos has stayed healthy and been an above average starting pitcher, with flashes of greatness, for his entire career and still appears to be a useful workhorse. This is exactly the kind of pitcher the Royals need. The issues about his club house presence may or may not be of any real concern, it's hard to tell. But if you choose to believe that he is just a competitive pitcher who wants to win and is in the last year of his contract looking for another big deal then what more could you ask for?
It's a leap-of-faith, I'll grant you that, but based on the above referenced track record do you feel more comfortable penciling-in Vin Mazarro or Carlos Zambrano as you #3 starting pitcher? Do you see more potential for a #2 starter in Luke Hochevar or Zambrano? Looking at the Royals current situation, I feel that they need to start making gambles, and as far as gambles go this is one that has the potential to make a real impact on the team without sacrificing much other than a couple of secondary prospects and only a few million bucks that will hardly be felt by the payroll. Playing the waiting game with pitching prospects is fine, and Duffy has been looking better every time, but you need someone reliable in your rotation and there have been few pitchers as reliable (physically not mentally) as Carlos Zambrano. I think this is the exact situation that can be exploited by a shrewd organization; an unwanted player with a big contract and a team in need of payroll space to sign someone like Pujols or Fielder. It just reeks of desperation. If there is another, better contract dump situation out there please let me know. But this trade deadline I'd love to see Dayton take a risk instead of his past Callaspo-for-O'Sullivan snoozers that will have little impact on keeping 2012 from looking like 2011.
Friday, June 24, 2011
Stealing vs Acquiring
Depending on your view of Frank White the announcer, we believe that it’s highly probable that Frank White the man is a heck of a guy, a swell family man and a decent guy to run into at the neighborhood BBQ. With that being said, Frank White the announcer is as bland and straightforward as an announcer can offer. We can’t recall any instance of offering even a courtesy giggle to any of Frank’s attempted “funnies”. Let’s just say that after three innings of Frank no one has ever said “Gee-Wilikers, that guy would be a hoot to go grab some beers with”.
Regardless, Frank said something the other day during the Diamondbacks game that was a somewhat original insight or one that we have not previously heard 10,000 times at a 10-year old baseball camp. Lefebre and Frank were bantering about Adam Kennedy’s slide step and how for some miraculous reason Chris Getz might not be able to steal second base (as if Chris Getz is the standard for base stealing prowess…it’s a miracle of God he got to first base to start with). The quote was something like this:
“Kennedy is able to maintain his command and keep the ball down while using that slide step. With most guys the arm doesn’t catch up and they leave the ball up when using a slide step. In my day no one knew what a slide step was, nobody used one”.
Frank played when Kauffman Stadium was large enough to fatten 300 head of cattle (if the surface was natural grass, of course). Frank also played when people really stole some bases. This was what the Powder Blue Room refers to as the Cocaine Era of Base Stealing. Just for a minute take a look at some of Vince Coleman’s stolen base numbers.
In 1985-87, Vince Coleman stole 110, 107 and 109 bases, respectively. Coleman was on 1st or 2nd base 210 times in 1985. He successfully stole a base 110 times, or about 53% of the time he was logically eligible to steal. If you count the mere 25 times Coleman was caught stealing, Coleman attempted to steal a base darn near 65% of every time he was logically eligible to do so. Keep in mind this was IN THE MAJOR LEAGUES.
That is an attempt percentage similar to your average 9-year old Little Leauge game, where this is the first year stolen bases are allowed, kid pitchers crying because they don’t know how to pitch from the stretch and the catcher can’t so much see second base much less throw it that far (wasn’t eveyone’s first “steal” sign a touch of the hat followed by a swipe against the chest….hat and belt buckle was of course bunt).
In 1986 it was more of the same. Coleman reached 1st or 2nd base 194 times. He actually stole a base 55% of the time, and tried to steal a base 63% of the time.
Vince Coleman didn’t really “steal” bases as he “acquired” them, sort of like one company “acquires” another company. According to dictionary.com the third definition of “steal” is:
“to take, get or win insidiously, surreptitiously, subtly, or by chance”
Now the Powder Blue Room has no earthly idea what the words insidiously or surreptitiously mean, but we do know there was nothing subtle about Vince Coleman’s desire to steal the next base in front of him. And the percentages show that Mr. Coleman had a successful rate of over 50%. Ask a casino if the player having a 53%-47% advantage is a game of “chance”.
"Stealing" infers some Ocean’s Eleven type scheme where Brad Pitt puts on a dandy suit, eats popcorn shrimp and somehow ends up in your vault. Vince Coleman stealing a base was true marksmanship. When standing on first base mabye Vince simply saw a mound of white stuff 90 feet away and thought he should get the good times a 'rollin (maybe have D. Strawberry and Doc Gooden out to 2nd base for a strategy session).
Of the twenty top single season stolen base totals, six occurred between 1980 and 1987. Eleven of the twenty occurred before 1900. You get the picture. This all leads to the bigger question. Why?
The Powder Blue Room has a theory and it is based on what was expected of a catcher back when. As everyone can recall, before Cal Ripken and later the A-Rod’s of the world, the average shortstop could shop for clothes in the juniors department and not hit his rear end with either hand, so long as he could field the ball.
Unfortunately, this is a theory the Kansas City Royals have adamantly adhered to for their entire existence as a franchise. There was a small change of pace with Angel Berroa for a year, but Angel never saw a pitch he didn’t deem worthy of a hack. By the end Berroa probably would have swung at a wheel pick off play to second base.
Perhaps catchers didn’t always throw 93 mph to second base. Perhaps the result of the 1980’s base stealing necessitated the requirement that catchers possess a cannon of an arm and a nano-second pop time to second. Or at least the arm strength factor did not carry as much weight in a catcher’s evaluation. A good time ago maybe a catcher was only really required to “handle his pitching staff” and block balls and not be a complete embarrassment at the plate. Nowhere in there was it required that you need to throw greyhounds out stealing.
Then teams got around to thinking “geez, if we let every fast dude that gets to first base exploit our catcher (especially with all the large multi-use stadiums back then, homeruns not being as in vogue) then why should anyone bother with a double….tell Johnson down in scouting that from now on catchers have to be able to throw the daylights out of the ball to second or else this is going to get really out of hand”.
Much like the shortstop of a pre 1990’s vintage, the required tools of a catcher might have changed. Now we have to listen to Tim McCarver say “this guy has a cannon behind the plate”. Well, Tim, now they all do. Some have more of a “cannon” of an arm than others, much like some running backs are faster than others. But they all throw aspin tablets to second base and all running backs are fast.
This has to be one of the reasons that Vince Colman could hit a single and stand on first base and have every single breathing soul in the stadium know he was going to try and steal a base, and actually do it. This is not the same bowl of soup as when Jose Canseco was the first to hit 40 home runs and steal 40 bases in a season. Almost any major leaguer can scrounge up 40 trash stolen bases by guessing right and strategically attempting stolen bases in the 7th inning of a blowout, August 23rd, Sunday 1pm, Oakland-Kansas City getaway game in Kauffman Stadium, when it is 400 degrees Kelvin outside, the catcher is nursing last night’s P&L escapade and fielders would rather not run over to second to field the throw.
Mickey Mantle summed it up best when after Canseco accomplished the 40-40 feat he was asked why he was never able to pull it off. The Mick’s answer:
“Hell if I’d known 40-40 was going to be a big deal I would have done it every year”.
We don’t have any real evidence of the above theory and obviously there are a ton of other reasons for prolific 1980’s base thievery. Perhaps pitchers just came to reason that if fast guys that have a knack for stealing bases really want second base, then bless their souls let them have it. At some point it becomes counterproductive to delay the inevitable.
Or as Frank White said, maybe it took a little while to develop the counter offense technique of a slide step. Baseball people will tell you “you steal a base on the pitcher and blah blah blah”. That’s true when you are trying to “steal” a base, where pitch count, pitch selection and so on matter most. When you are trying to “acquire” a base, and everyone knows it, the catcher’s arm strength really matters. It’s the arm strength that is going to make up the difference in the runners speed and jump during a base “acquisition”. That extra arm strength is going to give you a shot. That little difference is what you need to get Vince Coleman when the pitcher is slide stepping, has thrown over 2,000 times, and the previous four pitch-out attempts went by without cause.
Our guess is that the 1980’s thievery of bases caused the new modern day catcher that can really, really throw to second base. Vince Coleman might have been like a gambler or investor that finds an edge before the crowd catches on. Boy did he ride the wave.
Regardless, Frank said something the other day during the Diamondbacks game that was a somewhat original insight or one that we have not previously heard 10,000 times at a 10-year old baseball camp. Lefebre and Frank were bantering about Adam Kennedy’s slide step and how for some miraculous reason Chris Getz might not be able to steal second base (as if Chris Getz is the standard for base stealing prowess…it’s a miracle of God he got to first base to start with). The quote was something like this:
“Kennedy is able to maintain his command and keep the ball down while using that slide step. With most guys the arm doesn’t catch up and they leave the ball up when using a slide step. In my day no one knew what a slide step was, nobody used one”.
Frank played when Kauffman Stadium was large enough to fatten 300 head of cattle (if the surface was natural grass, of course). Frank also played when people really stole some bases. This was what the Powder Blue Room refers to as the Cocaine Era of Base Stealing. Just for a minute take a look at some of Vince Coleman’s stolen base numbers.
In 1985-87, Vince Coleman stole 110, 107 and 109 bases, respectively. Coleman was on 1st or 2nd base 210 times in 1985. He successfully stole a base 110 times, or about 53% of the time he was logically eligible to steal. If you count the mere 25 times Coleman was caught stealing, Coleman attempted to steal a base darn near 65% of every time he was logically eligible to do so. Keep in mind this was IN THE MAJOR LEAGUES.
That is an attempt percentage similar to your average 9-year old Little Leauge game, where this is the first year stolen bases are allowed, kid pitchers crying because they don’t know how to pitch from the stretch and the catcher can’t so much see second base much less throw it that far (wasn’t eveyone’s first “steal” sign a touch of the hat followed by a swipe against the chest….hat and belt buckle was of course bunt).
In 1986 it was more of the same. Coleman reached 1st or 2nd base 194 times. He actually stole a base 55% of the time, and tried to steal a base 63% of the time.
Vince Coleman didn’t really “steal” bases as he “acquired” them, sort of like one company “acquires” another company. According to dictionary.com the third definition of “steal” is:
“to take, get or win insidiously, surreptitiously, subtly, or by chance”
Now the Powder Blue Room has no earthly idea what the words insidiously or surreptitiously mean, but we do know there was nothing subtle about Vince Coleman’s desire to steal the next base in front of him. And the percentages show that Mr. Coleman had a successful rate of over 50%. Ask a casino if the player having a 53%-47% advantage is a game of “chance”.
"Stealing" infers some Ocean’s Eleven type scheme where Brad Pitt puts on a dandy suit, eats popcorn shrimp and somehow ends up in your vault. Vince Coleman stealing a base was true marksmanship. When standing on first base mabye Vince simply saw a mound of white stuff 90 feet away and thought he should get the good times a 'rollin (maybe have D. Strawberry and Doc Gooden out to 2nd base for a strategy session).
Of the twenty top single season stolen base totals, six occurred between 1980 and 1987. Eleven of the twenty occurred before 1900. You get the picture. This all leads to the bigger question. Why?
The Powder Blue Room has a theory and it is based on what was expected of a catcher back when. As everyone can recall, before Cal Ripken and later the A-Rod’s of the world, the average shortstop could shop for clothes in the juniors department and not hit his rear end with either hand, so long as he could field the ball.
Unfortunately, this is a theory the Kansas City Royals have adamantly adhered to for their entire existence as a franchise. There was a small change of pace with Angel Berroa for a year, but Angel never saw a pitch he didn’t deem worthy of a hack. By the end Berroa probably would have swung at a wheel pick off play to second base.
Perhaps catchers didn’t always throw 93 mph to second base. Perhaps the result of the 1980’s base stealing necessitated the requirement that catchers possess a cannon of an arm and a nano-second pop time to second. Or at least the arm strength factor did not carry as much weight in a catcher’s evaluation. A good time ago maybe a catcher was only really required to “handle his pitching staff” and block balls and not be a complete embarrassment at the plate. Nowhere in there was it required that you need to throw greyhounds out stealing.
Then teams got around to thinking “geez, if we let every fast dude that gets to first base exploit our catcher (especially with all the large multi-use stadiums back then, homeruns not being as in vogue) then why should anyone bother with a double….tell Johnson down in scouting that from now on catchers have to be able to throw the daylights out of the ball to second or else this is going to get really out of hand”.
Much like the shortstop of a pre 1990’s vintage, the required tools of a catcher might have changed. Now we have to listen to Tim McCarver say “this guy has a cannon behind the plate”. Well, Tim, now they all do. Some have more of a “cannon” of an arm than others, much like some running backs are faster than others. But they all throw aspin tablets to second base and all running backs are fast.
This has to be one of the reasons that Vince Colman could hit a single and stand on first base and have every single breathing soul in the stadium know he was going to try and steal a base, and actually do it. This is not the same bowl of soup as when Jose Canseco was the first to hit 40 home runs and steal 40 bases in a season. Almost any major leaguer can scrounge up 40 trash stolen bases by guessing right and strategically attempting stolen bases in the 7th inning of a blowout, August 23rd, Sunday 1pm, Oakland-Kansas City getaway game in Kauffman Stadium, when it is 400 degrees Kelvin outside, the catcher is nursing last night’s P&L escapade and fielders would rather not run over to second to field the throw.
Mickey Mantle summed it up best when after Canseco accomplished the 40-40 feat he was asked why he was never able to pull it off. The Mick’s answer:
“Hell if I’d known 40-40 was going to be a big deal I would have done it every year”.
We don’t have any real evidence of the above theory and obviously there are a ton of other reasons for prolific 1980’s base thievery. Perhaps pitchers just came to reason that if fast guys that have a knack for stealing bases really want second base, then bless their souls let them have it. At some point it becomes counterproductive to delay the inevitable.
Or as Frank White said, maybe it took a little while to develop the counter offense technique of a slide step. Baseball people will tell you “you steal a base on the pitcher and blah blah blah”. That’s true when you are trying to “steal” a base, where pitch count, pitch selection and so on matter most. When you are trying to “acquire” a base, and everyone knows it, the catcher’s arm strength really matters. It’s the arm strength that is going to make up the difference in the runners speed and jump during a base “acquisition”. That extra arm strength is going to give you a shot. That little difference is what you need to get Vince Coleman when the pitcher is slide stepping, has thrown over 2,000 times, and the previous four pitch-out attempts went by without cause.
Our guess is that the 1980’s thievery of bases caused the new modern day catcher that can really, really throw to second base. Vince Coleman might have been like a gambler or investor that finds an edge before the crowd catches on. Boy did he ride the wave.
Sunday, June 19, 2011
Taking Stock
The PBR is going to put on its three-piece Gordon Geko suit and play analyst for the Royals to see which player's stock is up, who's stock is down, who's a buy, who's a hold, who's a sell, you know all of that good stuff. As an overall portfolio, I think we can all agree that the KC Royals are weak to quite weak? For all of the small battles the team is winning they're still losing the war...
I'm going to give this my Hold rating; he was a penny stock about two weeks ago and now he's the hottest tech stock on the market. However, I need another month of data before I really consider Alcides' hitting stock - even after today's HR - as having any growth potential. Just to illustrate how bad he was hitting; during his steak (not including today) he's had to go 20 for 40 over his last 11 games just to get his SLG% to tick over .300, the streak has taken him all the way from The WORST offensive player in the league to the 4th WORST (per OPS+ @ Baseball Ref) Juan Pierre and Orlando Cabrera watch out! The PBR won't be suckered in to buying that type of hype, but if you do own it it's probably got more room to grow before it's profit taking time.
If you were a day trader who happened to be playing Duffman stock today, you had fun. He was coming in fresh off his first major league win, then has a typical first inning rough patch, next he looks like Randy Johnson for two innings, then gets injured. I'll just say I was buying all of the Duffy stock that I could get my hands-on as he was striking everyone out; in 3 2/3 innings he struck out nine, by far and away the most of any Royals pitcher this year (Chen and Davies each had a game of 7K) and all in less than four innings! After the injury I panicked and sold most of my stock, but then upon hearing that it was just a "leg cramp" I bought half of it back. Here is the bottom line; the Royals need an ace, Duffy is probably not it, but he is closer than anyone else. The Royals had four top minor league lefties coming into the start of the season; the best of them can't find the plate and has a 5.00 ERA in AAA (Montgomery), the next will undergo elbow surgery (Lamb), number three has a 6.00+ ERA in AA (Dwyer) and then there is Duffy who is in the majors and hopefully still healthy. Starting pitchers are the most fickle stocks of them all, and the Duffman has at least made it to the majors and proven that he can strike-out professional hitters so for a Royals stock right now that's a BUY.
Since May 5: .224/.269/.308. Basically for the last six weeks Jeffy has hit like Alcides Escobar, if he hadn't put together that monster April, he'd be platooning with Mitch Maier and maybe still should be. I'm not as down on Frenchy as it might seem, but I wouldn't touch his stock with a ten-foot pole right now. Hopefully there is one MLB team out there that just looks at April stats and needs Le Jeff, but I think that hope is fading by each AB.
Wilson Betemit
His stock is no longer available on the open market, Dayton and Yost seen to that.
He came out with a very strong LinkedIn-like IPO, but has had exactly one extra base hit in the month of June and has been out-homered by Alcides Escobar. I'm still strong to quite strong on Hosmer stock, but I liked it a lot better when his hits found the gaps and went over the fence.
Vinny Mazzaro
I've been shorting his stock since it came out, and we'll probably see him replaced by Bruce Chen asap, but make no mistake about it the Royals might need him to be a passable starter if they hope to do anything next year. He's the heir apparent to Kyle Davies, whatever that means.
I'm placing a hold on this stock, I like it, but don't quite love it yet. On the defensive side he has the hands of concrete laborer, but looks like he might throw harder than Aroldis Chpman. At the plate he's looked solid except for the fact that he might never hit lefties (0 for 9 so far). All this adds-up to potentially a good major league player, but probably will always be limited by the defense and aversion to left handed pitching and therefore never great. Still I'll take what I can get in this no-so-hot market.
Felipe Paulino
Depends on the price tag, the Royals bought low and Dayton might have found another good project player that he can turn into a useful everyday player. He could very well be the best pitcher in the starting rotation now, however this is on a team that has as its only two regular starting pitchers the 49th and 50th (out of 54, per ERA+ @ Baseball Ref) best in the league, so we're working on a sliding scale.
In my humble opinion, he's been mislabeled as a small cap fund when he should really be a large cap fund. I'm still holding out hope for Yost and Moore to put him back in the starting rotation, but Yosty and Dayton are the two guys most likely to stick with convention and the philosophy of "if it ain't broke, don't fix it." It's also possible that they've got to have someone ready if Joakim falls apart again, but still Crow doesn't seem to be getting the most out of his potential. Yesterday, he was apparently passed over by Yosty in favor of Greg Holland as the 8th inning guy who predictably gave up the lead with a two-run bomb. So I'm failing to see any of their logic with regard to Aaron Crow usage and the firm of PBR doesn't put out buys on part-time 8th inning guys. So hold if you already bought him, but wait until he moves to the rotation for anymore action on the Crow fund.
Melky is about like one of those mutual funds available in your work 401K plan and seen advertised during golf tournaments. You could do a lot worse than having invested in the Cabrera fund, but you're probably not going to buy that house in the Hamptons because you dropped 5% of your paycheck into the Melky Global Markets Growth Fund from TD-Lynch'n-heimer. Still I'm buying on Melky as a very low-risk investment and I like his price-to-earnings ratio better than Jeff Francouer, while seeing more room for sustained growth. The Royals have no use for both Frency and Melky going forward this year with Lorenzo Cain tearing it up in AAA, one has to go and Melky will still be under contract next season for a lot less than the cost of the Francouer mutual option. Sorry it's just business.
I've finally come around on this stock, I used to be a seller but after all is said and done, Billy is our best hitter until proven otherwise. I've gotten past all of the flaws and now in my old age just want a steady 10-15% return every year and that's exactly what Billy gives the Royals.
I prefer the larger cap hitting fund of Aviles, always have and always will.
I've been holding this stock for a long time now and still won't sell until the bitter end. In short, if the Royals are going to win in the next couple of years they need Alex Gordon to be the exact player that he is right now. We no longer need him to be Geoge Brett, but if he can continue to be an above average/useful player then he's got value. All that being said, I can still see Gordon stock turning into a Madoff-style ponzi scheme leaving them with nothing.
I've been selling at a loss for weeks now; 10 games under .500, all the way beneath the Twins and in last place. It feels familiar, but somehow even worse than ever; it's June and our hope rests on the shoulders of Bruce Chen and maybe even Kyle Davies, Jeff Francouer putting together another hot streak, Alcides Escobar hitting like Tulo, things that just don't happen. What happens next will depend on very undependable players and that scares me as a fan because there still remains the possibility that it could get worse. It's a long way up from here and today's market closed at a new 52-week low.
Alcides Escobar
I'm going to give this my Hold rating; he was a penny stock about two weeks ago and now he's the hottest tech stock on the market. However, I need another month of data before I really consider Alcides' hitting stock - even after today's HR - as having any growth potential. Just to illustrate how bad he was hitting; during his steak (not including today) he's had to go 20 for 40 over his last 11 games just to get his SLG% to tick over .300, the streak has taken him all the way from The WORST offensive player in the league to the 4th WORST (per OPS+ @ Baseball Ref) Juan Pierre and Orlando Cabrera watch out! The PBR won't be suckered in to buying that type of hype, but if you do own it it's probably got more room to grow before it's profit taking time.
Danny Duffy
If you were a day trader who happened to be playing Duffman stock today, you had fun. He was coming in fresh off his first major league win, then has a typical first inning rough patch, next he looks like Randy Johnson for two innings, then gets injured. I'll just say I was buying all of the Duffy stock that I could get my hands-on as he was striking everyone out; in 3 2/3 innings he struck out nine, by far and away the most of any Royals pitcher this year (Chen and Davies each had a game of 7K) and all in less than four innings! After the injury I panicked and sold most of my stock, but then upon hearing that it was just a "leg cramp" I bought half of it back. Here is the bottom line; the Royals need an ace, Duffy is probably not it, but he is closer than anyone else. The Royals had four top minor league lefties coming into the start of the season; the best of them can't find the plate and has a 5.00 ERA in AAA (Montgomery), the next will undergo elbow surgery (Lamb), number three has a 6.00+ ERA in AA (Dwyer) and then there is Duffy who is in the majors and hopefully still healthy. Starting pitchers are the most fickle stocks of them all, and the Duffman has at least made it to the majors and proven that he can strike-out professional hitters so for a Royals stock right now that's a BUY.
Jeff Francouer
Since May 5: .224/.269/.308. Basically for the last six weeks Jeffy has hit like Alcides Escobar, if he hadn't put together that monster April, he'd be platooning with Mitch Maier and maybe still should be. I'm not as down on Frenchy as it might seem, but I wouldn't touch his stock with a ten-foot pole right now. Hopefully there is one MLB team out there that just looks at April stats and needs Le Jeff, but I think that hope is fading by each AB.
Wilson Betemit
His stock is no longer available on the open market, Dayton and Yost seen to that.
Eric Hosmer
He came out with a very strong LinkedIn-like IPO, but has had exactly one extra base hit in the month of June and has been out-homered by Alcides Escobar. I'm still strong to quite strong on Hosmer stock, but I liked it a lot better when his hits found the gaps and went over the fence.
Vinny Mazzaro
I've been shorting his stock since it came out, and we'll probably see him replaced by Bruce Chen asap, but make no mistake about it the Royals might need him to be a passable starter if they hope to do anything next year. He's the heir apparent to Kyle Davies, whatever that means.
Mike Moustakas
I'm placing a hold on this stock, I like it, but don't quite love it yet. On the defensive side he has the hands of concrete laborer, but looks like he might throw harder than Aroldis Chpman. At the plate he's looked solid except for the fact that he might never hit lefties (0 for 9 so far). All this adds-up to potentially a good major league player, but probably will always be limited by the defense and aversion to left handed pitching and therefore never great. Still I'll take what I can get in this no-so-hot market.
Felipe Paulino
Depends on the price tag, the Royals bought low and Dayton might have found another good project player that he can turn into a useful everyday player. He could very well be the best pitcher in the starting rotation now, however this is on a team that has as its only two regular starting pitchers the 49th and 50th (out of 54, per ERA+ @ Baseball Ref) best in the league, so we're working on a sliding scale.
Aaron Crow
In my humble opinion, he's been mislabeled as a small cap fund when he should really be a large cap fund. I'm still holding out hope for Yost and Moore to put him back in the starting rotation, but Yosty and Dayton are the two guys most likely to stick with convention and the philosophy of "if it ain't broke, don't fix it." It's also possible that they've got to have someone ready if Joakim falls apart again, but still Crow doesn't seem to be getting the most out of his potential. Yesterday, he was apparently passed over by Yosty in favor of Greg Holland as the 8th inning guy who predictably gave up the lead with a two-run bomb. So I'm failing to see any of their logic with regard to Aaron Crow usage and the firm of PBR doesn't put out buys on part-time 8th inning guys. So hold if you already bought him, but wait until he moves to the rotation for anymore action on the Crow fund.
Melky Cabrera
Melky is about like one of those mutual funds available in your work 401K plan and seen advertised during golf tournaments. You could do a lot worse than having invested in the Cabrera fund, but you're probably not going to buy that house in the Hamptons because you dropped 5% of your paycheck into the Melky Global Markets Growth Fund from TD-Lynch'n-heimer. Still I'm buying on Melky as a very low-risk investment and I like his price-to-earnings ratio better than Jeff Francouer, while seeing more room for sustained growth. The Royals have no use for both Frency and Melky going forward this year with Lorenzo Cain tearing it up in AAA, one has to go and Melky will still be under contract next season for a lot less than the cost of the Francouer mutual option. Sorry it's just business.
Billy Butler
I've finally come around on this stock, I used to be a seller but after all is said and done, Billy is our best hitter until proven otherwise. I've gotten past all of the flaws and now in my old age just want a steady 10-15% return every year and that's exactly what Billy gives the Royals.
Chris Getz
I prefer the larger cap hitting fund of Aviles, always have and always will.
Alex Gordon
I've been holding this stock for a long time now and still won't sell until the bitter end. In short, if the Royals are going to win in the next couple of years they need Alex Gordon to be the exact player that he is right now. We no longer need him to be Geoge Brett, but if he can continue to be an above average/useful player then he's got value. All that being said, I can still see Gordon stock turning into a Madoff-style ponzi scheme leaving them with nothing.
The KC Royals Fund
I've been selling at a loss for weeks now; 10 games under .500, all the way beneath the Twins and in last place. It feels familiar, but somehow even worse than ever; it's June and our hope rests on the shoulders of Bruce Chen and maybe even Kyle Davies, Jeff Francouer putting together another hot streak, Alcides Escobar hitting like Tulo, things that just don't happen. What happens next will depend on very undependable players and that scares me as a fan because there still remains the possibility that it could get worse. It's a long way up from here and today's market closed at a new 52-week low.
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