The PBR is deciding to bypass a "wrap-up" post picking apart what went wrong and what went right for the Royals this season. I think it's pretty clear: good starting pitching + very good defense + rock star bullpen - substantially under performing offense = 86 wins. The math is pretty simple, the difficult part is how this team can sustain the positive parts of that equation, find some offense and add 5-7 wins to their total come October 2014. This is where the PBR comes in. Now that it is October, the one sustaining element we have left is to solve the world's problems as they relate to the very small world of KC Royals baseball.
Problem #1 - Ervin Santana is leaving the building: The first question Royals fans will be asking this offseason is how do you replace 200+ innings of 3.28 ERA baseball? Dayton Moore's answer early in the offseason seems to either be mid-level reclamation projects or one-last-hurrah veteran types or the ultimate high-upside injury riddled once-dominant starting pitcher. These would be the obvious answers, but we're not looking for obvious answers here at the PBR. These are classic small market team safe moves that sometimes actually work (see Ervin Santana, Scott Feldman, Bartolo Colon) but sometimes don't (see Shaun Marcum, Josh Johnson, Dan Haren). So while these might be tactically sound strategies, the PBR doesn't sit around all winter dreaming about Phil Hughes suiting up in a Royals' uniform. We advocate for more extremist strategies when approaching the market. Thus we recommend that the Royals go big or stay at home. Two years ago the Royals were coming off spending at a near Marlins level payroll, when Yu Darvish received his record posting fee. Now the Rangers have a two-time top ten Cy Young finisher under contract from the ages of 27-30 at a ridiculous 4yrs/$41 mil. That same time period will cost the Dodgers $102 million for the services of going-on 30 Zack Greinke, the Tigers $104 mil for 30-something Justin Verlander, and the Yankees possibly $96 mil for mid-30s CC Sabathia who is coming off a 4.78 ERA. What's the point? The Royals should try to hang with the big boys and shock the world by landing the latest Japanese can't miss import. We all know this will NEVER Happen, the Glass family has done nothing to show us that this is a possibility, but if there were ever a way to send a message this is it. This year alone the Royals can say that they have roughly $18 mil freed up from Bruce Chen and Ervin Santana and next year about the same from James Shields and Luke Hochevar, this isn't quite enough but it's not a bad start. Look we get it, the Royals might not be able to pony up $75 mil now, but they probably could have when Yu Darvish hit the market, and how good would this year look with Yu Darvish AND Wil Myers on the team? If teams actually knew how to just pluck 200 innings and 3.28 ERAs out of thin air and sign them to short term contracts at less than market value, a GMs job would be easy. However, Pitchers are a rare breed of expensive and unstable commodities and the Royals can't use Ervin Santana as a blueprint for future success in the pitching market; pitchers usually don't just shave two runs off of their ERA or suddenly get over past injuries. It happens every year, but if you rely on this strategy you'll never be sustainable, but going bold and looking for a real ace is how the Royals should operate. Thus, the PBR cautions against middling in the middle and either sign Masahiro Tanaka, trade for David Price or simply inform Danny Duffy and Yordano Ventura that it's time to grow up because if the Royals farm system can't produce at least a #2 starter at some point, the problems aren't going to be solved by Phil Hughes. Now lets move on to the real problem...
Problem #2 - Too much mediocrity: Here it is, you can imagine Dayton Moore thinking to himself that if you look at everything just right you can see how every single player on the Royals gets better on offense. This will lead Mr. Moore to convincing us that he doesn't even have to try to upgrade the offense other than a few minor tweaks. Of course both Billy and Alex will go back to putting up an OPS above .850 and Eric Hosmer is a rising star ready jump Prince Fielder and challenge Chris Davis as the best 1B in the AL. Naturally Alcides Escobar and Mike Moustakas will work so hard in the offseason that they turn into the .290 hitting SS and 30 HR mashing 3B that everyone wants to see. This is coupled with the a priori certainty that the David Lough - Justin Maxwell - Lorenzo Cain - Jarrod Dyson super platoon outfield will both improve offensively and not miss a step on the bases and in the field. And without a doubt Dayton Moore will finally solve his 2B black hole with a shrewd trade or free agent signing that adds three wins from that position alone. And if you even question the idea that Salvy Perez is turning into a Hall of Fame catcher right before our eyes, you'll be whipped with a wet powder blue jerseys for eternity. Combing back to earth, any of these things happening would be great, but everyone repeating the year they had last year is not out of the question. So again we recommend going big. While we may be losing interest in giving Carl Crawford/Jayson Werth contracts to Shin Soo Choo or Jacoby Ellsbury, we here at the PBR advise a Nick Swisher type buy on Curtis Granderson. The reason being is that he might be half the price of the previous two and its not entirely clear his production would be that much less. They also have about equal injury risk with Granderson probably going for a year or two less guaranteed money. He hit 40 HRs TWO YEARS IN A ROW. NO ROYAL HAS EVER DONE THIS IN ONE YEAR!!!!!!!!!! Okay, it was at the NEW Yankee Softball Stadium, but still if you put him in RF for the next four to five years he is a lock to have the best odds at beating the Balboni record in every single year. The Royals need a Jolt Cola/Monster/Red Bull power smoothie on offense, and it's not coming from the gang who came in last in the AL in HRs this season. Yes, Granderson is capable of hitting .230 and striking out 200 times, but he still walks and hits HRs, which are two things the Royals desperately need. He also fits the good guy-winner checklist that Dayton Moore likes and still meshes with the good base running/defense team philosophy. We recently read this in the NY Times or a similar publication:
"By far and away the best 30 HR value on the market", according to PBR Financial Advisers.
I'm not a GM, but I do read MLB Trade Rumors enough to pretend like I have an astute grasp on baseball's financial markets so I can't see Curtis Granderson getting more than a 4yr/$60 mil deal and if Cleveland can give out two of these contracts, there is no way the Royals can claim poverty. Also, getting these types of free agents to sign with us was supposedly one of the ancillary benefits to reaching 86 wins this season in the name of respectability. Finally, Dayton needs to do his best to make fans forget about Wil Myers; that's Rookie of the Year Wil Myers, starting RF for the Rays Wil Myers, officially here to taunt Royals fans Wil Myers.
Problem #3 - Luke Hochevar will cost $5 million: If you're a team that has a shaky bullpen and your top set-up man -- who is also theoretically capable of starting 200 innings -- is locked in for this price then you are absolutely ecstatic. However, this is the Royals and this is Luke Hochevar. A lot of things went right for the Royals last season, but near the top of the list of things least likely to happen was Hochevar's resurrection from leading the league in earned runs allowed one year to sub-2.00 ERA shutdown reliever the next. Also, this is the same Royals bullpen that had to keep Louis Coleman in the minors for half of the season because there just wasn't a spot for his 0.61 ERA. Hoch is just a luxury that is better allocated to other needs, we get how tempting it would be to keep him, but that kind of money can really separate the Royals from pulling the trigger on a free agent bat or getting gun shy at the last minute. We can still hold out hope that Dayton Moore gets blown away by a trade offer and we can finally say good bye to Luke, but after reading some recent comments it's more likely that he is back in the starting rotation than wearing another jersey. If Moore doesn't find a way to turn his bullpen assets into something this offseason it will be a huge mistake.
Problem #4 - Guthrie's Backload: Guthrie's 2013 season was perfectly acceptable and he was a nice calming presence every 5th day, but it was a lot nicer at $5 mil rather than the $11 mil he'll be paid this season. I guess every team needs a Jeremy Guthrie and I guess with the prices of free agent pitchers you could make a case for him being worth it, but that number seems high to the PBR. This is a very Royalesque allocation of money: Guthrie, Wade Davis and Hochevar will make a combined $21 mil this season (roughly 1/4th of the teams Payroll). Wouldn't you rather have one ace starting pitcher making $20 mil and two rookies making the league min to be a 5th starter and bullpen arm? Sure, if Wade Davis and Guthrie combine for 400 IP at a 4.00 ERA and Hoch repeats last year, they are worth the money. However, there is a distinct possibility of getting a 180 IP at a 4.5 ERA and two bullpen arms that put up 3.5 ERAs, while singing the "we don't have enough money to sign big free agents" tune. Guthrie gave up the most hits in the league last season and combines that with the rare ability to only strike out a batter every other inning, but I'm sure he can continue to survive somehow. The point here is that if you are a good GM, Guthrie is the guy you're supposed to be able to find every year or pull out of AAA, but not the guy who is your second highest paid player (currently).
Problem #5 - The James Shields Catch-22: James Shields was exactly what every Royals fan hoped for, unfortunately Wil Myers is what every Rays fan hoped for. Without Shields the 2014 starting rotation would look very suspect, with Wil Myers the 2014 offense would actually look hopeful. Jake Odorizzi didn't pan out yet, neither did Wade Davis. James Shields is a leader, Wil Myers is young and exciting. The Royals had their best season in 20 years, the Rays were still better. The PBR fully supported the decision to go big last offseason and make the Wil Myers trade, and we still feel that the .290 and 25 HRs Wil Myers now seems likely to provide over the next few years is infinitely more replaceable than Shields' 230 IP and 3.00 ERA. However, if those numbers go in opposite directions this season, it will be less likely that we can still defend the move. The Royals can't afford to simply push on these big trades, it is well within the realm of possibilities that these two are equally valuable this season and the Royals are then left without an ace SP AND without a star RF in 2015. So yes, James Shields being the difference maker in the Royals making the playoffs this season is fairly important. Another year just like this one has to be the worst case scenario; we would still look upon James Shields time in KC fondly as he signs a $100+ million contract somewhere near the Pacific or Atlantic Ocean. By then, 2015 Wil Myers wouldn't really cause us to lose much sleep and a lot of credit for the Royals resurgence would be credited to him. That's a lot of pressure on the Royals, but it's high time we actually expect something good from them.
I think the coast is clear, I just refreshed all 17 internet browsing windows currently open on my computer and Dayton Moore still hasn't made a trade or signed anyone. Hopefully he will be getting his PBR new post alert soon and drop his pursuit of Phil Hughes and start begging the Glass family to sell a few shares of Wal-Mart stock so the Royals can enter into a bidding war with the Yankees and Dodgers for the next Yu Darvish!
Friday, November 15, 2013
Sunday, October 20, 2013
28 Years and Counting: I-70 Envy
So it's been a few weeks now, but we decided that it was finally high time the PBR got around to putting a bow on a season that will most likely amount to either a forgotten blip like the 2003 season, or the most important season in 25+ years. Now that the season officially ended in pretty much the way we all expected, we know that it will ultimately be judged by the success of next season. It's easy to get swept up in the excitement of the best season in 20 years, but the reality is that this season is exactly what we should have expected. Do we applaud the team for actually doing what it was supposed to do? All of this came as a result of a team record payroll, the third season from two of the highest regarded position player prospects our farm system has produced, the magical 27 year old season from Billy Butler, swapping the ROY for another team's Ace pitcher, giving $13 mil to another #2-type pitcher and giving $30 mil to another #3-type, so really this season actually deserves more like a golf-clap than a standing ovation. All of the good things came with some bad: an 8-20 May, the firing of one hitting coach in order to hire two minor league hitting coaches, then promptly firing those two for saying stupid things, then begging our team icon to suit-up and coach the young hitters, then having him resign after a couple months of mixed results. All of this led to one of the worst offenses in baseball spearheaded by easily the worst left side of the infield in baseball, a big regression from Alex Gordon, less than nothing from RF for two months, very little from Lorenzo Cain (other than defense), more of the same from Getzie (that is to say one of the worst offensive players in baseball), the fewest HRs in the AL and overall a boring team to watch at the plate. There is no denying the great step forward made by the Royals this year, but it still leaves us envious of the others:
Envy #1 - The Cards: Who else. They are just a few hours down I-70, but it's like their living in a parallel universe where everything goes right. This year is a perfect example: before the year even begins they lose one of their best pitchers (Carpenter) and their starting veteran SS (Furcal); no problem their best pitching prospect will actually pitch like that (Miller) and of course their 13th round draft pick (Matt Carpenter) will step up and lead the NL in hits, runs, and doubles. Problem Solved. When their star player walks away, guess what happens to the Cards? He gets worse, and the supplemental draft pick received from the team who signs him turns into the pitcher who leads them to the Worlds series (Wacha), this pitcher was also drafted 15 rounds after the Royals pick who is not in the majors. They sign a veteran RF to a modest contract, and low and behold this player (Beltran) is actually worth the money and then some. We could go on, but I think we've made our point. Here the Cards are going to yet another World Series, they've been to the playoffs twelve times since that 1985 series, Since 2003 when the Royals had their last winning season, they've had only ONE losing season, which means that they have had exactly as many losing season in the last 10 years as we've had winnings seasons. They manage to get 1.5 million more people to show up to their games, they get to sign whomever they want, they are seemingly impervious any kind of bad luck, it's just not fair. The gap between us and them is what makes it so difficult to even get mad, but this is the team to which we should be comparing ourselves. Just 28 years ago, they were jealous of us.
Envy #2 - Cleveland Indians: We were supposed to finish 2nd this year! They couldn't even let us do that; we haven't been able to finish a season in 2nd since the strike year of 1995. That same year Cleveland had one of the best teams in the history of baseball and has made the playoffs nine times while the Royals haven't finished better than 3rd once. So how did they do it this year? By getting lucky and winning 11 games in a row to finish out the season? Maybe. By making strategic signings and trades designed to help them now and in the future? Possibly. By signing a manger who has actually been successful before? Doesn't hurt. A combination off all of that? Most likely. However, the point is that they've been down and out just like the Royals, but they find a way to get back to the playoffs and the Royals keep talking about progress. There is no real Cleveland way, and that is probably one of the best reasons to point to when asking how they have been so much better than the Royals during this period of time. They have been flexible and just not done so many things wrong like the Royals. It also doesn't hurt that they've got their trades right, while the Royals have managed just okay results in both directions; nobody can pronounce the Grienke deal a real win for the Royals and Shields cost us the ROY and maybe a cheaper version of the 5th starter they thought they were getting. The best path to success this season for the Royals might be to play the third-times-a-charm strategy with a big trade, only this time they have to fleece someone instead of the both teams win approach.
Envy #3 - Tampa Bay: We took their most reliable veteran #2 starting pitcher, their best set-up man and gave them 90 games of a 23 year old right fielder and 30 innings of an emergency starter and long reliever. Still they finished 5 games better than us. We had a better starting Rotation, better Bullpen, better LF (maybe), better catcher, wait that might be it. The difference here is that they Rays didn't have sink holes in their team, everyone was an above average contributor. This is an extremely important lesson for the Royals next season, don't have any positions where you are HORRIBLE! If you are going to have a light hitting, good defensive SS, that's it. You can't also have a light hitting good defensive 3B, 2B, CF and RF too.
Envy #4 - Pittsburgh Pirates: It was a good relationship for a while. We were both extremely pathetic for very long periods of time; the Pirates with their lack of winning seasons and the Royals with their lack of Playoff appearances in 20+ years. We always had each other to comfort us on long winter nights dreaming about miraculous turn around seasons only to be woken up again by the next season's pitiful reality. Then it happend, Pittsburgh didn't suck, they didn't blow it down the stretch, they actually made the Playoffs. It was short lived, but still they did both things in one season and the Royals didn't. We're still talking about next season as THE SEASON when we break the streak and they aren't. Now we're all alone, I guess we could try to include the Cubs in our company but they've been much closer to breaking that streak than us. It is lonely, but I guess we're happy for you Pittsburgh.
Envy #5 - The Tigers: I guess we have to be envious of them, they won the division. However, they just seem so much better that it is difficult to be too envious, but it wasn't so long ago that they were actually WORSE than us. During the season of our last winning record, they almost set a record for most losses with 119. Since then they have gotten better and now are clearly the perennial favorites in the Central. Since that time the Royals have gotten worse and only now can they finally at least say they're winners again. The difference is blatantly obvious: they have real stars and we don't. The gap between Miggy and our best hitter is about the production of Mike Moustakas; if you combined the HRs, RBIs and Walks of Hosmer and Moose you still wouldn't even be close to Miggy. James Shields actually outpitched Justin Verlander this season, unfortunately both Anibal Sanchez and Max Scherzer were better than that. Prince Fielder had a really down year, but it was still better than Hosmer's season. Torii Hunter is still a very valuable player at 37, Jeff Francouer is done at 29. These are the differences that the Royals have to make up this offseason. Good Luck.
The Royals still aren't playing meaningful October baseball, but they did manage a few interesting weeks in September and that is a good thing no matter how far away they still might be. Yes, we are jealous of these teams, but we are now close enough to at least throw our name out there as challengers. We can't wait see what happens this offseason, as we said earlier this season only means something if next season is better.
Envy #1 - The Cards: Who else. They are just a few hours down I-70, but it's like their living in a parallel universe where everything goes right. This year is a perfect example: before the year even begins they lose one of their best pitchers (Carpenter) and their starting veteran SS (Furcal); no problem their best pitching prospect will actually pitch like that (Miller) and of course their 13th round draft pick (Matt Carpenter) will step up and lead the NL in hits, runs, and doubles. Problem Solved. When their star player walks away, guess what happens to the Cards? He gets worse, and the supplemental draft pick received from the team who signs him turns into the pitcher who leads them to the Worlds series (Wacha), this pitcher was also drafted 15 rounds after the Royals pick who is not in the majors. They sign a veteran RF to a modest contract, and low and behold this player (Beltran) is actually worth the money and then some. We could go on, but I think we've made our point. Here the Cards are going to yet another World Series, they've been to the playoffs twelve times since that 1985 series, Since 2003 when the Royals had their last winning season, they've had only ONE losing season, which means that they have had exactly as many losing season in the last 10 years as we've had winnings seasons. They manage to get 1.5 million more people to show up to their games, they get to sign whomever they want, they are seemingly impervious any kind of bad luck, it's just not fair. The gap between us and them is what makes it so difficult to even get mad, but this is the team to which we should be comparing ourselves. Just 28 years ago, they were jealous of us.
Envy #2 - Cleveland Indians: We were supposed to finish 2nd this year! They couldn't even let us do that; we haven't been able to finish a season in 2nd since the strike year of 1995. That same year Cleveland had one of the best teams in the history of baseball and has made the playoffs nine times while the Royals haven't finished better than 3rd once. So how did they do it this year? By getting lucky and winning 11 games in a row to finish out the season? Maybe. By making strategic signings and trades designed to help them now and in the future? Possibly. By signing a manger who has actually been successful before? Doesn't hurt. A combination off all of that? Most likely. However, the point is that they've been down and out just like the Royals, but they find a way to get back to the playoffs and the Royals keep talking about progress. There is no real Cleveland way, and that is probably one of the best reasons to point to when asking how they have been so much better than the Royals during this period of time. They have been flexible and just not done so many things wrong like the Royals. It also doesn't hurt that they've got their trades right, while the Royals have managed just okay results in both directions; nobody can pronounce the Grienke deal a real win for the Royals and Shields cost us the ROY and maybe a cheaper version of the 5th starter they thought they were getting. The best path to success this season for the Royals might be to play the third-times-a-charm strategy with a big trade, only this time they have to fleece someone instead of the both teams win approach.
Envy #3 - Tampa Bay: We took their most reliable veteran #2 starting pitcher, their best set-up man and gave them 90 games of a 23 year old right fielder and 30 innings of an emergency starter and long reliever. Still they finished 5 games better than us. We had a better starting Rotation, better Bullpen, better LF (maybe), better catcher, wait that might be it. The difference here is that they Rays didn't have sink holes in their team, everyone was an above average contributor. This is an extremely important lesson for the Royals next season, don't have any positions where you are HORRIBLE! If you are going to have a light hitting, good defensive SS, that's it. You can't also have a light hitting good defensive 3B, 2B, CF and RF too.
Envy #4 - Pittsburgh Pirates: It was a good relationship for a while. We were both extremely pathetic for very long periods of time; the Pirates with their lack of winning seasons and the Royals with their lack of Playoff appearances in 20+ years. We always had each other to comfort us on long winter nights dreaming about miraculous turn around seasons only to be woken up again by the next season's pitiful reality. Then it happend, Pittsburgh didn't suck, they didn't blow it down the stretch, they actually made the Playoffs. It was short lived, but still they did both things in one season and the Royals didn't. We're still talking about next season as THE SEASON when we break the streak and they aren't. Now we're all alone, I guess we could try to include the Cubs in our company but they've been much closer to breaking that streak than us. It is lonely, but I guess we're happy for you Pittsburgh.
Envy #5 - The Tigers: I guess we have to be envious of them, they won the division. However, they just seem so much better that it is difficult to be too envious, but it wasn't so long ago that they were actually WORSE than us. During the season of our last winning record, they almost set a record for most losses with 119. Since then they have gotten better and now are clearly the perennial favorites in the Central. Since that time the Royals have gotten worse and only now can they finally at least say they're winners again. The difference is blatantly obvious: they have real stars and we don't. The gap between Miggy and our best hitter is about the production of Mike Moustakas; if you combined the HRs, RBIs and Walks of Hosmer and Moose you still wouldn't even be close to Miggy. James Shields actually outpitched Justin Verlander this season, unfortunately both Anibal Sanchez and Max Scherzer were better than that. Prince Fielder had a really down year, but it was still better than Hosmer's season. Torii Hunter is still a very valuable player at 37, Jeff Francouer is done at 29. These are the differences that the Royals have to make up this offseason. Good Luck.
The Royals still aren't playing meaningful October baseball, but they did manage a few interesting weeks in September and that is a good thing no matter how far away they still might be. Yes, we are jealous of these teams, but we are now close enough to at least throw our name out there as challengers. We can't wait see what happens this offseason, as we said earlier this season only means something if next season is better.
Friday, September 20, 2013
The September Issue: Peaks and Valleys
Full disclosure here, I've written and now rewritten this post before. I almost gloated about forecasting the end of the season (see last post) as the team got swept at home by the lowly White Sox on 8/22. However I was lazy and then they had a nice little winning streak just as the Rays and Rangers started their downward spiral. Again, I almost wrote about the inevitable end when James Shields looked like the Anti-Big Game James on 9/6, and then again after both of Nex Yost's well documented managerial disasters. But those posts didn't get written and now, more than a month later, the Royals have 10 games to play and three games to make up in order to get themselves into the two-for-one wild card game. Without getting too deep into the analysis, here is how this thing could go down in descending order from the most likely to the least likely:
Scenario #1 - The College Try: This is where the Royals go 7-3 or 6-5, play well, but miss the playoffs by a game or two. All skeptical Royals fans see it going down this way. They finish something like 86-77, Ned Yost is hailed as a leader of men, the James Shield trade is justified, we spend all offseason talking about who we could get to make the team better: "we have to bring Santana back", "we gotta get a second basemen", "wouldn't Jacoby Ellsbury look good in a Royals uniform", etc. This is by far and away the most likely and palatable scenario. The PBR can't endorse Ned Yost coming back, but then again we also spent the entire year talking about how they were going to blow it and yet they never quite did, so we will default to results. Yes, we will get tired of hearing about how this was a great step forward and how the team is really "ready" to win now, but we'll focus on making outlandish trade and free-agent signing scenarios and hibernate until Spring, criticize Dayton Moore and then wait for them to play about the same next season.
Scenario #2 - The Decisions: This is the inverse of the first. This is where the Royals go no better than 5-5, maybe 3-7, and we fans with short memories can start the fire Ned Yost riots. We could easily go out and get swept in the last homestand of the season this weekend against the Rangers, become out of the race and play apathetic baseball the rest of the way. This is an option we have to broach, even though it is the most difficult to stomach from the fan's perspective. This is where we get to see some intense panic after the season; Ned Yost gets fired and we fork over $120 million to resign Santana and pick-up Hunter Pence. This is just too drastic, nobody wants to see this happen.
Scenario #3 - The Vengeful Royal: The Royals sweep the Rangers this weekend on their way to slipping into wild card. Meanwhile the the Indians choke, but the Rays limp in but finish tied with the Royals and have to cede home field because of the head-to-head match-up. This is where it gets good; James Shields pitches on short rest, throws a shut out against his former team, Wil Myers goes 0-4 with 4Ks, on his fourth K he breaks his hand slamming a bat in the dugout and is injured and humiliated enough to keep him from ever becoming anything more than another failed prospect. They predictably lose in 6 games to the eventual World Series champs, The Oakland A's. However, everyone rejoices and this does become the start of another Golden Age of baseball in KC; they sign Shin-Soo Choo who makes us forget about RF for the next 5 years, Yordono Ventura does become the next Pedro, Billy and Alex age gracefully, Hosmer and Moose become 90% and 75% of what they were supposed to be, Bubba Starling finally becomes the Next George Brett, there is never another negative word written about Dayton Moore and the PBR is picked up by ESPN for exclusive Royals coverage. This is the third most likely scenario because only the first two have above a one percent chance of happening.
Scenario #4 - The Emperors New Clothes: This is where the Royals go 0-10 and fail to even have a .500 season. The Pittsburgh Pirates win the World Series and the Royals are left standing as the most pathetic sports franchise in History. Dayton Moore gets to blame one last manger, Ned Yost is fired and things get even worse. The Royals do nothing in the offseason more than resign Luke Hochevar, Chris Getz and Emilio Bonafacio because Dayton Moore is denied all other financial transactions by the Glass family and officially becomes a lame duck GM. The final nail in the coffin is complete when James Shields gets "shoulder tightness" in spring training, somehow Chris Getz wins the starting 2B job again and then they open the season 10-20. At this point Moore gets fired and is replaced by a former Marlins executive and Royals fans are promised they just need to restock the farm system and then there is a summer fire sale where everything goes for 50 cents on the dollar.
Scenario #5 - The 1980s Throwback Party: The Royals manage to go 9-1 over the next 10 games, beat Cleveland in the wildcard playoff game, then somehow ride their pitching through the rest of the postseason, obviously beating the St. Louis Cardinals in the World Series, and finally parade through the Plaza again. Whether or not they go the next 27 years without another playoff game becomes irrelevant and what comes next is not important because that is what happens when you win a World Series.
There will be no negative commentary by the PBR for the next 10 games as we observe a period of optimism to respect the 2013 Rollercoaster Royals. In my mind, all five of these scenarios are equal based on what we've seen so far this season.
Scenario #1 - The College Try: This is where the Royals go 7-3 or 6-5, play well, but miss the playoffs by a game or two. All skeptical Royals fans see it going down this way. They finish something like 86-77, Ned Yost is hailed as a leader of men, the James Shield trade is justified, we spend all offseason talking about who we could get to make the team better: "we have to bring Santana back", "we gotta get a second basemen", "wouldn't Jacoby Ellsbury look good in a Royals uniform", etc. This is by far and away the most likely and palatable scenario. The PBR can't endorse Ned Yost coming back, but then again we also spent the entire year talking about how they were going to blow it and yet they never quite did, so we will default to results. Yes, we will get tired of hearing about how this was a great step forward and how the team is really "ready" to win now, but we'll focus on making outlandish trade and free-agent signing scenarios and hibernate until Spring, criticize Dayton Moore and then wait for them to play about the same next season.
Scenario #2 - The Decisions: This is the inverse of the first. This is where the Royals go no better than 5-5, maybe 3-7, and we fans with short memories can start the fire Ned Yost riots. We could easily go out and get swept in the last homestand of the season this weekend against the Rangers, become out of the race and play apathetic baseball the rest of the way. This is an option we have to broach, even though it is the most difficult to stomach from the fan's perspective. This is where we get to see some intense panic after the season; Ned Yost gets fired and we fork over $120 million to resign Santana and pick-up Hunter Pence. This is just too drastic, nobody wants to see this happen.
Scenario #3 - The Vengeful Royal: The Royals sweep the Rangers this weekend on their way to slipping into wild card. Meanwhile the the Indians choke, but the Rays limp in but finish tied with the Royals and have to cede home field because of the head-to-head match-up. This is where it gets good; James Shields pitches on short rest, throws a shut out against his former team, Wil Myers goes 0-4 with 4Ks, on his fourth K he breaks his hand slamming a bat in the dugout and is injured and humiliated enough to keep him from ever becoming anything more than another failed prospect. They predictably lose in 6 games to the eventual World Series champs, The Oakland A's. However, everyone rejoices and this does become the start of another Golden Age of baseball in KC; they sign Shin-Soo Choo who makes us forget about RF for the next 5 years, Yordono Ventura does become the next Pedro, Billy and Alex age gracefully, Hosmer and Moose become 90% and 75% of what they were supposed to be, Bubba Starling finally becomes the Next George Brett, there is never another negative word written about Dayton Moore and the PBR is picked up by ESPN for exclusive Royals coverage. This is the third most likely scenario because only the first two have above a one percent chance of happening.
Scenario #4 - The Emperors New Clothes: This is where the Royals go 0-10 and fail to even have a .500 season. The Pittsburgh Pirates win the World Series and the Royals are left standing as the most pathetic sports franchise in History. Dayton Moore gets to blame one last manger, Ned Yost is fired and things get even worse. The Royals do nothing in the offseason more than resign Luke Hochevar, Chris Getz and Emilio Bonafacio because Dayton Moore is denied all other financial transactions by the Glass family and officially becomes a lame duck GM. The final nail in the coffin is complete when James Shields gets "shoulder tightness" in spring training, somehow Chris Getz wins the starting 2B job again and then they open the season 10-20. At this point Moore gets fired and is replaced by a former Marlins executive and Royals fans are promised they just need to restock the farm system and then there is a summer fire sale where everything goes for 50 cents on the dollar.
Scenario #5 - The 1980s Throwback Party: The Royals manage to go 9-1 over the next 10 games, beat Cleveland in the wildcard playoff game, then somehow ride their pitching through the rest of the postseason, obviously beating the St. Louis Cardinals in the World Series, and finally parade through the Plaza again. Whether or not they go the next 27 years without another playoff game becomes irrelevant and what comes next is not important because that is what happens when you win a World Series.
There will be no negative commentary by the PBR for the next 10 games as we observe a period of optimism to respect the 2013 Rollercoaster Royals. In my mind, all five of these scenarios are equal based on what we've seen so far this season.
Wednesday, August 14, 2013
Is this the end?
If you could draw up how the Royals were going to kill their momentum and fade back into their old ways, the last two days would be a pretty good start. Bruce Chen throws another shut out, but the Royals managed to put up ZERO runs and lose in extra innings on a fluke 0-2 beanball and SB off of our gold glove catcher. Then, as we were winning a sloppy game in typical Royals fashion on a lazy Wednesday afternoon, suddenly the defense lets the team down, Luke Hochevar goes with his vintage look and Alex Gordon strikes out as the tying run to seal losing two-of-three to the lowly Marlins. This of course all happened while the Tigers and Indians were looking like real playoff contenders by rallying for victories. The PBR has been very quiet of late, basically there is not much to say when everything is going right, you just watch and assume that it will continue, but when it doesn't you freak out and look to blame someone or something...
Blame #1 Miggy Tejada: We know it's not his fault, but basically this 39 year old was the shining example of how everything was working out during the great post All Star break winning streak that got us believing we could really stay in the race. In the end the paper clips and duck tape holding him together weren't enough to stave off the inevitable season ending injury. As Royals fans we should have seen it coming. He personified the unsustainable fluke that was our winning streak. Now he's being replaced by another 39 year old who is a very poor facsimile for what Miggy brought to the table and who will undoubtedly fail as so many veteran Royals pick-ups before him. A resurrection from Miggy is exactly what the team needed to propel them into the playoffs; another familiar face on ESPN promos that could make their relevance believable. Unfortunately, it didn't work out and now we're forced to watch lessor players try to fill his shoes, this was the start.
Blame #2 Ned Yost: I really have nothing to back this up, but when a team loses the manager is always to blame. Why did he lead off Chris Getz? Why didn't he pinch hit there? Shouldn't he have played Justin Maxwell at 3rd base? Ervin Santana should have thrown a complete game, right? Why does Greg Holland ever leave the game, is two innings of relief really asking that much? Can't Ned tell them to hit more HRs? Gordon in the four hole, again, really? Should Elliot Johnson ever be playing? Why not hit Billy Butler leadoff? Like the Royals of late, pretty much everything has gone right for Yostie, but he will soon be fair game again once we tailspin into a losing streak that ends the season. Honestly, this is pretty much the hand he's been dealt. Yes, batting Chris Getz in the leadoff spot is criminal, but it wouldn't matter if there were someone really that much better to play 2B, or if Eric Hosmer were Mike Trout, or if Billy Butler were David Ortiz, or if Alex Gordon were Miguel Cabrera. That being said, Ned is basically managing for his baseball future; continued good play would mean a big contract extension and possible Manager of the year votes, but stumbling down the stretch would almost certainly mean walking papers for Ned.
Blame #3 Chris Getz: Since his return the Royals are 1-2, can't argue with that. He is also responsible for world hunger, crimes against the state and the downfall of Network TV.
Blame #4 George Brett: Can he come back and re-remind us how to do it like 1985? If we're going to give him credit for "turning around" the hitters, he needs to be open to some of the blame as well.
Blame #5 Elliot Johnson: What exactly is doing to help the team again? No answer needed to the previous question, but now we can definitively point to his error today as actively hurting the team and likely starting them on a 10 game losing streak that will get people fired, start riots on the Plaza and lead to the team being sold and moved to Oklahoma City. I get it, he's an emergency back-up, but there are literally five guys in AAA who are better than him, Falu, Colon, Giavotella, etc.? His slugging avg. would rank near the bottom of the league's batting averages, there just isn't anything there.
The team has been going so well that this is all the PBR could come up with to blame for losing the last two against the Marlins. While the unprecedented five game sweep of the Tigers would change everything again, hoping for this might not be realistic. However, as Royals fans, the fact that this series has some semblance of meaning is monumental. If it's a success this little bump in the road against the Marlins will be forgotten, however if bad things happen in Motown then everyone will put a big red circle on the two games the team squandered away against the Marlins when we begin to ask where it all went wrong.
Blame #1 Miggy Tejada: We know it's not his fault, but basically this 39 year old was the shining example of how everything was working out during the great post All Star break winning streak that got us believing we could really stay in the race. In the end the paper clips and duck tape holding him together weren't enough to stave off the inevitable season ending injury. As Royals fans we should have seen it coming. He personified the unsustainable fluke that was our winning streak. Now he's being replaced by another 39 year old who is a very poor facsimile for what Miggy brought to the table and who will undoubtedly fail as so many veteran Royals pick-ups before him. A resurrection from Miggy is exactly what the team needed to propel them into the playoffs; another familiar face on ESPN promos that could make their relevance believable. Unfortunately, it didn't work out and now we're forced to watch lessor players try to fill his shoes, this was the start.
Blame #2 Ned Yost: I really have nothing to back this up, but when a team loses the manager is always to blame. Why did he lead off Chris Getz? Why didn't he pinch hit there? Shouldn't he have played Justin Maxwell at 3rd base? Ervin Santana should have thrown a complete game, right? Why does Greg Holland ever leave the game, is two innings of relief really asking that much? Can't Ned tell them to hit more HRs? Gordon in the four hole, again, really? Should Elliot Johnson ever be playing? Why not hit Billy Butler leadoff? Like the Royals of late, pretty much everything has gone right for Yostie, but he will soon be fair game again once we tailspin into a losing streak that ends the season. Honestly, this is pretty much the hand he's been dealt. Yes, batting Chris Getz in the leadoff spot is criminal, but it wouldn't matter if there were someone really that much better to play 2B, or if Eric Hosmer were Mike Trout, or if Billy Butler were David Ortiz, or if Alex Gordon were Miguel Cabrera. That being said, Ned is basically managing for his baseball future; continued good play would mean a big contract extension and possible Manager of the year votes, but stumbling down the stretch would almost certainly mean walking papers for Ned.
Blame #3 Chris Getz: Since his return the Royals are 1-2, can't argue with that. He is also responsible for world hunger, crimes against the state and the downfall of Network TV.
Blame #4 George Brett: Can he come back and re-remind us how to do it like 1985? If we're going to give him credit for "turning around" the hitters, he needs to be open to some of the blame as well.
Blame #5 Elliot Johnson: What exactly is doing to help the team again? No answer needed to the previous question, but now we can definitively point to his error today as actively hurting the team and likely starting them on a 10 game losing streak that will get people fired, start riots on the Plaza and lead to the team being sold and moved to Oklahoma City. I get it, he's an emergency back-up, but there are literally five guys in AAA who are better than him, Falu, Colon, Giavotella, etc.? His slugging avg. would rank near the bottom of the league's batting averages, there just isn't anything there.
The team has been going so well that this is all the PBR could come up with to blame for losing the last two against the Marlins. While the unprecedented five game sweep of the Tigers would change everything again, hoping for this might not be realistic. However, as Royals fans, the fact that this series has some semblance of meaning is monumental. If it's a success this little bump in the road against the Marlins will be forgotten, however if bad things happen in Motown then everyone will put a big red circle on the two games the team squandered away against the Marlins when we begin to ask where it all went wrong.
Wednesday, July 31, 2013
More than .500 is less at the deadline
The Royals improbable post All Star Break run finally culminated last night with season long slumper Mike Moustakas hitting two home runs, Ervin Santana continuing to be both a Royal and a good starting pitcher (a difficult feat) and pushing the team beyond a .500 record. This has the clear benefit that we no longer have to say "if we could just get to .500 then..." Past this, the advantages stem from the psychological benefits to a beaten down fanbase, to preserving the slim hopes at the playoffs, the saving of jobs, the respectability of the franchise allowing them to sign free agents who would otherwise not be interested, etc., etc., etc. The PBR is happy to see the improvement and is exactly what we wanted to see before the season started, but the fact remains that (after Detroit's win this afternoon) if the Royals lose tonight, we will be in the same position as before the All Star Break, despite this nice seven game winning streak. So what else does this mean....
They Were Buyers!: After so much debate as to whether or not the Royals should sell high on Ervin Santana or go big on a second baseman, they did neither. They made the classic deadline deal and got JUST ANOTHER OUTFIELDER. We now have our replacement for Wil Myers, come join the four man platoon Mr. Justin Maxwell!!!!!! Classic Dayton type guy; big, athletic, hit some HRs one time in his career, possible platoon RF, might be useful, but most likely useless, only slightly better than Jeff Francouer, but I'm sure there is something Dayton Loves about him and of course he couldn't just sit still. Obviously, we all know that this was most likely a waste of time. Hopefully, this is what happened: Dayton asked for every team's #1, #2, #3 and #4 prospect for Ervin Santana, they hung up the phone and Dayton never called back. Also, Dayton checked in on Howie Kendrick and the Angels asked for the same package and Dayton hung up. We can all live with this outcome, no one will ever know what we could have had for Santana and likewise it's hard to fault Dayton for not wanting to give up another top prospect for a proven 2B, especially given that Wil Myers is currently one of the hottest players in baseball. The PBR and others were really pushing for the Royals to be bold and sell Santana, but we have to default to the fact that we know absolutely nothing and really we just wanted to seem something interesting. So there we have it, another outfielder who happens to hit right handed and almost had 20 HRs last year, questioned answered, we were Buyers.
Touché, Detroit: So the Royals win seven in a row and Detroit wins nine of ten. Naturally the other team has to lose for you to make up ground and Detroit doesn't seem to want to do that. However, they have a player who showed up on the wrong pieces of paper and therefore they'll be losing a starting SS. Their only answer is to take the gold glove starting SS from another first place team. F-you, Tiger! But what about those bullpen problems? Problem solved, Detroit steals the closer from another team to work as a set-up man. Yes, but didn't you hear, we got a right hand hitting platoon 5th outfielder. Seriously, Detroit we need a break. Wait a minute, we might have found your Kryptonite: Miguel Cabrera fielding! This is the only thing that can really affect the chances of the Royals (or Indians) catching Detroit, the best hitter in baseball hitting the DL would be music to ears of the far fetched Dreams of Royals' fans. Not that the PBR would root for that sort of thing
Not Losing Helps: If the Royals have taught us one thing recently, it's that winning every baseball game you play makes you look like a much better team. This is the team we all expected to see, a competent club that shows promise with an outside shot at the playoffs, but most likely still needs a year to gel. It has taken a lot of work to finally become a winning team again, so the best advice the PBR can give is that if they keep winning every game, there might still be a chance, though Detroit might do the same. Where the Royals go next will be very interesting, but given how this season has gone any amount of winning or losing wouldn't come as much of a surprise.
They Were Buyers!: After so much debate as to whether or not the Royals should sell high on Ervin Santana or go big on a second baseman, they did neither. They made the classic deadline deal and got JUST ANOTHER OUTFIELDER. We now have our replacement for Wil Myers, come join the four man platoon Mr. Justin Maxwell!!!!!! Classic Dayton type guy; big, athletic, hit some HRs one time in his career, possible platoon RF, might be useful, but most likely useless, only slightly better than Jeff Francouer, but I'm sure there is something Dayton Loves about him and of course he couldn't just sit still. Obviously, we all know that this was most likely a waste of time. Hopefully, this is what happened: Dayton asked for every team's #1, #2, #3 and #4 prospect for Ervin Santana, they hung up the phone and Dayton never called back. Also, Dayton checked in on Howie Kendrick and the Angels asked for the same package and Dayton hung up. We can all live with this outcome, no one will ever know what we could have had for Santana and likewise it's hard to fault Dayton for not wanting to give up another top prospect for a proven 2B, especially given that Wil Myers is currently one of the hottest players in baseball. The PBR and others were really pushing for the Royals to be bold and sell Santana, but we have to default to the fact that we know absolutely nothing and really we just wanted to seem something interesting. So there we have it, another outfielder who happens to hit right handed and almost had 20 HRs last year, questioned answered, we were Buyers.
Touché, Detroit: So the Royals win seven in a row and Detroit wins nine of ten. Naturally the other team has to lose for you to make up ground and Detroit doesn't seem to want to do that. However, they have a player who showed up on the wrong pieces of paper and therefore they'll be losing a starting SS. Their only answer is to take the gold glove starting SS from another first place team. F-you, Tiger! But what about those bullpen problems? Problem solved, Detroit steals the closer from another team to work as a set-up man. Yes, but didn't you hear, we got a right hand hitting platoon 5th outfielder. Seriously, Detroit we need a break. Wait a minute, we might have found your Kryptonite: Miguel Cabrera fielding! This is the only thing that can really affect the chances of the Royals (or Indians) catching Detroit, the best hitter in baseball hitting the DL would be music to ears of the far fetched Dreams of Royals' fans. Not that the PBR would root for that sort of thing
Not Losing Helps: If the Royals have taught us one thing recently, it's that winning every baseball game you play makes you look like a much better team. This is the team we all expected to see, a competent club that shows promise with an outside shot at the playoffs, but most likely still needs a year to gel. It has taken a lot of work to finally become a winning team again, so the best advice the PBR can give is that if they keep winning every game, there might still be a chance, though Detroit might do the same. Where the Royals go next will be very interesting, but given how this season has gone any amount of winning or losing wouldn't come as much of a surprise.
Friday, July 19, 2013
Dayton Moore's Sisyphus
“We’re pushing forward. We’re pushing up the hill. We’re not going to stop.”
This is per Dayton's ill advised, poorly worded and borderline insane comments to the KC Star that have driven Royals fans to the brink of rioting. There is a lot of truth in this comment, but not the kind Dayton seems to think he's getting at. In the article Dayton thinks he's being the power of positive thinking, leader of men-type that his Tony Robbins books tell him he needs to be, but he's actually the guy who refuses to get it. The Royals are done this year, they just lost 5 games in a row and they have only 70 games remaining in which to make up a seemingly insurmountable lead in either the division behind both the Indians and the Tigers or the Wild Card behind even more teams. The Royals had been hanging around, just barely dodging extinction and then came the pre-All Star break sweep at the hands of the Indians. The best we can hope for is that this is Dayton Moore putting on his best poker face and that he is just waiting for the best offer to come in on Ervin Santana. However, anyone who thinks Chris Getz should get one more ONE MORE CHANCE to prove that he can´t hit major league pitching doesn´t get the benefit of the doubt with the PBR. This type of comeback has happened before in recent memory just down I-70, but if we're the 2011 Cardinals then this blog can officially retire in Peace.
With the Royals opening back up today against the Tigers, there is only one thing that can happen to get things turned around: a sweep, either by us OR them. If they go out and get swept then Dayton can no longer make these types of comments, Ned Yost will have to start putting a resume together and Dayton can be free to trade Ervin Santana and hope to get a minor league player than can help in 2014. If the Royals are the ones who sweep the Tigers, then we restart the Bandwagon and resume talks of 2013 contention and Ned Yost being manager of the year, Dayton Moore being lauded for his brilliant trades for James Shields and Ervin Santana, Hosmer and Moustakas as the new Bash Brothers, etc. However, like Dayton says there is likely more uphill pushing in the future of the Royals and the remainder of the season will be marked by more delusions, so here are the Top 5:
#1 Ned Yost Loves Hot Guys: He said it: “In fairness to (Giavotella),” Yost said, “he only had 35 at-bats. I understand that. But we’ve got to go. It’s time to go. We want to make sure we’ve got as many hot guys in that lineup that we can get in it.” This is Ned's justification for the recall of Chris Getz. Getz is SO HOT right now there should be a warning label on the back of his jersey instead of his name. A .313 hitter in AAA, that kind of bat has to be in the line-up, never mind the guy who in just shy of 1,500 major league plate appearances has a slugging percentage of .313. I'm done.
#2 Hosmer is Awesome: All of this Eric Hosmer is on-fire, George Brett unleashed the monster, he's back talk needs to slow down. Yes, he finally started hitting home runs again and now has almost as many as Vernon Wells! However, he still trails Chris Davis by 28 so lets hold off on the excitement until it is really warranted. He's about an average offensive player, he still has a long way to go until we can get excited about him in the future. Don't get me wrong, I like to see those HRs as much as anyone, but he's not even Mike Sweeney yet.
#3 Mike Moustakas is coming around: Yes, Since June 1st he's raised his average from below .180 all the way to .215. Sorry this isn't progress, just going from being really bad and having really bad luck to just being really bad. I'm really not sure who Mike Moustakas is going to be, but right now he's quite simply one of the top 5 worst hitting everyday players in baseball.
#4 Alcides Escobar, short stop extraordinaire: He's right there with Moustakas for worst everyday hitters in the AL, but he hits second in the line-up because he is really good at bunting. Ned Yost and the 2-hole is probably some of the most overworked territory on the Royals Blogger circuit, but it's because IT IS STUPID to have the guy with a .277 OBP getting the second most ABs in the line-up. If this doesn't change in the second half, we know Ned Yost is certifiable. Bunts, good speed and nice backhanded plays on defense, don't allow you to bat in one of the most important places in the line-up, this is just wrong. Alcides Escobar is an average major league SS, nothing more, no matter how many times Rex Hudler calls him a ballerina dancer.
#5 The Royals can compete in 2013: We covered this briefly in the outset, but it's not going to happen. The Royals need to be realistic and actually open the local newspaper or any one of a hundred internet websites and look at the standings. Sorry Dayton, it was a nice try but the Tigers better; Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera make Alex Gordon and Billy Butler look like Chris Getz and Jeff Francouer. It's over, be smart make the right moves for 2014 and keep with your perpetual testing of our patience year after year, but I'm sure NEXT year we'll really, really, finally be ready to win.
Tuesday, July 2, 2013
Treading Water (Thanks Detroit!)
When the PBR suggested that the Royals take advantage of their remaining weak schedule in June, a 4-5 run wasn't exactly what we had in mind. However, thankfully Detroit has been equally sub-par and despite the missed opportunity, the Royals find themselves in third place and a deceivingly close 4.5 games back in the standings. The calendar has flipped to July and the Royals are suddenly in a new phase of the season where Eric Hosmer is hitting HRs again, Mike Moustakas is north of the Mendoza, David Lough is making us forget about Wil Myers, James Shields and Ervin Santana are getting run support and Johnny Giavotella isn't in the minors. But those are all of the positive things going on, we will hold off on painting the rosey picture until the Royals are above .500. For now, we are going to do what we do best, beat dead horses....
Horse #1: C'est la vie Frenchy. Poor Dayton Moore had to put down his favorite old horse, he had been trying to convince the world that there was still life left in old Mr. Frenchy, but the vet finally got through to Moore and he was sent to the glue factory on Saturday night. As opportunistic bloggers, how should we react to this news? Should we hyperlink the 20 posts when we mentioned that signing him for two years was a bad idea? Should we go the soft route and talk about how it was a good signing at the time, but unfortunately it just didn't work out and kudos to Dayton for knowing when to pull the plug? Should we be realistic and separate the man from the decision and say that cutting an overpaid 5th outfielder is a relatively easy decision? Having paid $13.5 million for two years of service from the worst RF in baseball will naturally make Dayton Moore look like a bit of a fool, but in the history of overpriced MLB outfielder contracts this one is far from the worst. The one thing that made it so bad was when Ned and Moore refused to see what everyone else did, but recently it was clear that Frenchy had lost his job and this last move helps to prove that they aren't so blind, so there really isn't much to fault them for in this years use of Frenchy. If day one of the post Frenchy era was any indication of what is to come then we're probably going to win the World Series. However, the truth is, all the Royals have to do is replace Frenchy with an average player, he was so bad that ANYTHING was going to be better. Au Revior Frenchy, you made us laugh, cry and yell at the TV more than any Royals player in history, congrats.
Horse #2: Wade Davis-Luke Hochevar comps. It was all going in the right direction, Wade Davis had gone four starts without allowing more than two runs, he had his ERA back under 5.00 and then came Saturdays 1 IP, 5ER masterpiece. Now we have to start asking the questions again. Is he more suited for the bullpen? When will Danny Duffy be ready to replace him? Does Dayton more look like a giant sucker for taking him in the Myers-Shields deal? In my professional scouting opinion, Davis' problem seems to be that he gives up too many hits and walks too many batters, which is to say he isn't a very good pitcher. As good as James Shields has been, if you combine their numbers you have exactly 200 IP with a 4.05 ERA; this is much closer to two more Jeremy Guthries than the dominant Ace and #3 starter we would like to see. The point is, Wade Davis' performance has been bad enough to completely offset the dominance of James Shields, so if he doesn't pick it up soon things will have to change. We all want Davis to be better, but we wanted Jeremey Affelt to be better, we wanted Kyle Davies to be better and we wanted Luke Hochevar to be better, but they weren't and Davis might not be anything more than promise either. The real question is how long the Royals let this be talked about before they act? Hopefully the Tampa Bay Ray in Davis shows itself and he comes around to be a solid starter for the rest of the year, but if not there will be another driver for the Dayton Moore is an Idiot bandwagon.
Horse #3: Giavotella over Gets, Finally! The question as to why Chris Getz got so many opportunities will never be answered. The short answer is that Ned and Dayton always wanted him to be the coaches favorite little Jimmy Hustle player who bunts well, plays great defense, gets on base, runs fast, does the little things, blah blah blah. As much as they wanted this, Getz never became that player no matter how many times Ned hit him leadoff or second. The PBR is one of the Royals Blog league leaders in negative words written about Chris Getz, but the truth is nobody would have ever noticed the immortal Getzie if Hosmer and Moustakas were Trout and Machado. He could have been just the irrelevant 9-hole hitter if the Royals big hitters were actually big hitters, but unfortunately our middle of the order is just middling. Again, Getz was so bad that anything would have been an improvement and hopefully Gio will keep this up just enough so that we never have to see Getz again, but I don´t think we just added vintage Dustin Pedroia to our line-up. Time will tell, but as long as I don´t have to write another word questioning Ned Yost´s decision to bat Getzie second (that will be reserved for Alcides Escobar, soon), I will be happy.
Horse #4: Eric Hosmer is hitting HRs (fingers crossed).
This...
is the only thing that can make us forget about this...
No questions about it, if the Royals get right this year, it will be because of the former.
Horse #5: The Royals need to get to .500. This is perhaps the most overused phrase associated with losing teams. Yes, it is historically impossible to make the playoffs when you don´t get to .500, but the dream of chasing .500 means that you are currently a loser. Short of trading for Giancarlo Stanton and Chase Utley, the Royals have pulled out all of the stops to be a winning team this year. With the Detroit Tigers trying their best to prove that the AL Central is the worst division in baseball, the Royals have done nothing to take advantage of this. Just because someone else is losing doesn´t make you a winner, you still have to win games. So hopefully as the Wil Myers vs. David Lough Rookie of the Year debate heats up, so will the Royals. Talking about getting to .500 needs to give way to being over .500 and not having to talk about .500 EVER. It is exactly the mark of mediocrity, if that's what the Royals are shooting for so be it, but right now thye are just reinforcing the fact that they´re not even mediocre. That's the Royals in a nutshell.
Horse #1: C'est la vie Frenchy. Poor Dayton Moore had to put down his favorite old horse, he had been trying to convince the world that there was still life left in old Mr. Frenchy, but the vet finally got through to Moore and he was sent to the glue factory on Saturday night. As opportunistic bloggers, how should we react to this news? Should we hyperlink the 20 posts when we mentioned that signing him for two years was a bad idea? Should we go the soft route and talk about how it was a good signing at the time, but unfortunately it just didn't work out and kudos to Dayton for knowing when to pull the plug? Should we be realistic and separate the man from the decision and say that cutting an overpaid 5th outfielder is a relatively easy decision? Having paid $13.5 million for two years of service from the worst RF in baseball will naturally make Dayton Moore look like a bit of a fool, but in the history of overpriced MLB outfielder contracts this one is far from the worst. The one thing that made it so bad was when Ned and Moore refused to see what everyone else did, but recently it was clear that Frenchy had lost his job and this last move helps to prove that they aren't so blind, so there really isn't much to fault them for in this years use of Frenchy. If day one of the post Frenchy era was any indication of what is to come then we're probably going to win the World Series. However, the truth is, all the Royals have to do is replace Frenchy with an average player, he was so bad that ANYTHING was going to be better. Au Revior Frenchy, you made us laugh, cry and yell at the TV more than any Royals player in history, congrats.
Horse #2: Wade Davis-Luke Hochevar comps. It was all going in the right direction, Wade Davis had gone four starts without allowing more than two runs, he had his ERA back under 5.00 and then came Saturdays 1 IP, 5ER masterpiece. Now we have to start asking the questions again. Is he more suited for the bullpen? When will Danny Duffy be ready to replace him? Does Dayton more look like a giant sucker for taking him in the Myers-Shields deal? In my professional scouting opinion, Davis' problem seems to be that he gives up too many hits and walks too many batters, which is to say he isn't a very good pitcher. As good as James Shields has been, if you combine their numbers you have exactly 200 IP with a 4.05 ERA; this is much closer to two more Jeremy Guthries than the dominant Ace and #3 starter we would like to see. The point is, Wade Davis' performance has been bad enough to completely offset the dominance of James Shields, so if he doesn't pick it up soon things will have to change. We all want Davis to be better, but we wanted Jeremey Affelt to be better, we wanted Kyle Davies to be better and we wanted Luke Hochevar to be better, but they weren't and Davis might not be anything more than promise either. The real question is how long the Royals let this be talked about before they act? Hopefully the Tampa Bay Ray in Davis shows itself and he comes around to be a solid starter for the rest of the year, but if not there will be another driver for the Dayton Moore is an Idiot bandwagon.
Horse #3: Giavotella over Gets, Finally! The question as to why Chris Getz got so many opportunities will never be answered. The short answer is that Ned and Dayton always wanted him to be the coaches favorite little Jimmy Hustle player who bunts well, plays great defense, gets on base, runs fast, does the little things, blah blah blah. As much as they wanted this, Getz never became that player no matter how many times Ned hit him leadoff or second. The PBR is one of the Royals Blog league leaders in negative words written about Chris Getz, but the truth is nobody would have ever noticed the immortal Getzie if Hosmer and Moustakas were Trout and Machado. He could have been just the irrelevant 9-hole hitter if the Royals big hitters were actually big hitters, but unfortunately our middle of the order is just middling. Again, Getz was so bad that anything would have been an improvement and hopefully Gio will keep this up just enough so that we never have to see Getz again, but I don´t think we just added vintage Dustin Pedroia to our line-up. Time will tell, but as long as I don´t have to write another word questioning Ned Yost´s decision to bat Getzie second (that will be reserved for Alcides Escobar, soon), I will be happy.
Horse #4: Eric Hosmer is hitting HRs (fingers crossed).
This...
is the only thing that can make us forget about this...
Horse #5: The Royals need to get to .500. This is perhaps the most overused phrase associated with losing teams. Yes, it is historically impossible to make the playoffs when you don´t get to .500, but the dream of chasing .500 means that you are currently a loser. Short of trading for Giancarlo Stanton and Chase Utley, the Royals have pulled out all of the stops to be a winning team this year. With the Detroit Tigers trying their best to prove that the AL Central is the worst division in baseball, the Royals have done nothing to take advantage of this. Just because someone else is losing doesn´t make you a winner, you still have to win games. So hopefully as the Wil Myers vs. David Lough Rookie of the Year debate heats up, so will the Royals. Talking about getting to .500 needs to give way to being over .500 and not having to talk about .500 EVER. It is exactly the mark of mediocrity, if that's what the Royals are shooting for so be it, but right now thye are just reinforcing the fact that they´re not even mediocre. That's the Royals in a nutshell.
Friday, June 21, 2013
The song remains the same
The Royals are a somewhat disappointing 34-36 team. That is the easiest way to look at where they currently stand, what has happened during those 70 games has been something only a Royals fan could have expected. There was the early 17-10 "pitching wins championships" hot start, followed immediately by the 6-22 "fire everyone" spiral into last place, then came the resurrection period that saw the Royals God of Baseball step down from the heavens and lead the team on an 11-4 run in which they briefly reached .500 and regained 2nd place. Now what? So far June has been a very good month and if the Royals are to continue this roller-coaster season in a positive direction these next nine games need to go very well because July's schedule will be a different story. Three games against the suddenly pathetic Chi Sox, two against the suddenly beatable Braves and four more against the should-be-worse Twins. If there were ever a time to firmly establish themselves as no longer a part of the bottom of the division, that time would be now. 6-3 would be nice, but realistically we need to see a nice 7-2 run to finish out June if the Royals are really going to inspire hope for the rest of the season. First, a few questions need to be addressed:
Will Ned ever stop to look at Kelvin Herrera's stats? Yes, Kelvin Herrera and his 100mph fastball should be and have been better than what we've seen this season. But that doesn't change anything, Ned Yost only has eyes for the dominant 8th inning set-up man Kelvin Herrera, not the guy who has a 5.00 ERA, was recently demoted and blows the game every time he takes the mound. This can't continue, one way or another Ned has to give the 8th inning job to anyone else (yes, even Luke Hochevear).
Will Alex Gordon and/or Billy Butler cross the .800 OPS threshold again? These guys are by far our best hitters. Unfortunately, they've been just merely above average this season and if we're going to continually employ some of the worst hitters in baseball in RF, 3B, 2B and SS, we need to get better production out of them to offset the sub .600 OPS crew at other positions. Among other things, I'm pretty sure we're never going to catch Detroit when their third best hitter and 31-year-old SS has 100 points of OPS on our two best hitters.
Will Wil Myers out-hit Mike Moustakas & Jeff Francouer for the rest of June? This is so possible that I don't even want to keep track. The super prospect we traded in the off-season could actually be a better hitter than our veteran leader RF and future superstar 3B combined, right now! Now that these two are firmly planted in a quasi-platoon role, we can only assume that they will have a hard time eclipsing the recently promoted Wil Myers hitting in the middle of the Rays offense.
Will the starting rotation finally realize they're playing for the Royals? Again, our hot streak has been powered entirely by the starting rotation that is trying to wipe away many years of the Royals having the worst rotations in baseball. Every time Ervin Santana goes to the mound I sacrifice a bucket of chicken and hope this isn't the day it all goes south. With Jeremy Guthrie, Wade Davis and Luis Mendoza I've already made a deal with the devil to hand over my first 37 children in order to keep them passing as major league pitchers, we'll see how many more he wants.
Will Chris Getz finally be banished from earth for showing he can't even do the Little Things? Finally, Chris Getz failed at doing the one thing that was keeping him on the team: the sacrifice bunt. Now that this has happened, of course we're finally going to see Moore and Yost face the fact that he can no longer occupy a roster spot. Right? Please guys don't play the "good clubhouse guy" card, he hits .200, doesn't get on base, doesn't play anything more than an average 2nd base, has one HR in his Royals career and NOW he can't even sac bunt. It's over.
Hopefully we'll get some good answers to these questions and the Royals can keep their current fortunes moving in the right direction. If not, I'm bracing for another downward decent where we cozy up next to the Twins and Chi Sox and need a telescope to see the Tigers.
Will Ned ever stop to look at Kelvin Herrera's stats? Yes, Kelvin Herrera and his 100mph fastball should be and have been better than what we've seen this season. But that doesn't change anything, Ned Yost only has eyes for the dominant 8th inning set-up man Kelvin Herrera, not the guy who has a 5.00 ERA, was recently demoted and blows the game every time he takes the mound. This can't continue, one way or another Ned has to give the 8th inning job to anyone else (yes, even Luke Hochevear).
Will Alex Gordon and/or Billy Butler cross the .800 OPS threshold again? These guys are by far our best hitters. Unfortunately, they've been just merely above average this season and if we're going to continually employ some of the worst hitters in baseball in RF, 3B, 2B and SS, we need to get better production out of them to offset the sub .600 OPS crew at other positions. Among other things, I'm pretty sure we're never going to catch Detroit when their third best hitter and 31-year-old SS has 100 points of OPS on our two best hitters.
Will Wil Myers out-hit Mike Moustakas & Jeff Francouer for the rest of June? This is so possible that I don't even want to keep track. The super prospect we traded in the off-season could actually be a better hitter than our veteran leader RF and future superstar 3B combined, right now! Now that these two are firmly planted in a quasi-platoon role, we can only assume that they will have a hard time eclipsing the recently promoted Wil Myers hitting in the middle of the Rays offense.
Will the starting rotation finally realize they're playing for the Royals? Again, our hot streak has been powered entirely by the starting rotation that is trying to wipe away many years of the Royals having the worst rotations in baseball. Every time Ervin Santana goes to the mound I sacrifice a bucket of chicken and hope this isn't the day it all goes south. With Jeremy Guthrie, Wade Davis and Luis Mendoza I've already made a deal with the devil to hand over my first 37 children in order to keep them passing as major league pitchers, we'll see how many more he wants.
Will Chris Getz finally be banished from earth for showing he can't even do the Little Things? Finally, Chris Getz failed at doing the one thing that was keeping him on the team: the sacrifice bunt. Now that this has happened, of course we're finally going to see Moore and Yost face the fact that he can no longer occupy a roster spot. Right? Please guys don't play the "good clubhouse guy" card, he hits .200, doesn't get on base, doesn't play anything more than an average 2nd base, has one HR in his Royals career and NOW he can't even sac bunt. It's over.
Hopefully we'll get some good answers to these questions and the Royals can keep their current fortunes moving in the right direction. If not, I'm bracing for another downward decent where we cozy up next to the Twins and Chi Sox and need a telescope to see the Tigers.
Thursday, May 30, 2013
Market Correction
After first quarter earnings came in the Investment Advisers here at the PBR have taken their time parsing through these balance sheets in order to make sense of what has been an extremely volatile Royals baseball market early in the year. The way too promising start, followed immediately by a correction back to .500 and then free fall all the way down to Dead F-ing last behind the Twins. The market has come full circle and we are yet again left with what we know very well here in the KC Jones Industrial market. As a fan we were hopeful this might be something of a fun year watching the team hang around .500, as market analysts their hot start wasn't enough to get us going all in. Now we have to take a look a the pieces of the puzzle, and decide what needs to go and what needs to stay. This is when the true Royals market analyst wants to move to another trading floor, but unfortunately your friendly PBR investment analysts are still here and today we're talking package deals:
Jeff Francouer-Chris Getz Small Cap Growth Fund: We're going to spend very little time on these two because they are symptoms not the root of the problem. We feel like the PBR investment strategists have wasted entirely too much time trying to explain just how little value there is in these two stocks. We've hated on them so much, that we briefly have looked into buying a few shares based on the belief that no stock could still be listed on the MLB Stock Exchange and under perform to this degree. It turns out the problem is that the managers of the Royals hedge fund ignore all of the evidence which points to the fact that they are the only one's selling their scrappy, gritty, veteran leadering, defense first, BS mutual fund. They are junk bonds, penny stocks, Greek banks, default credit swaps all wrapped up in one offense destroying mutual fund. But they aren't the real problem...
Eric Hosmer-Mike Moustakas Core Value Fund: It's obvious why these two are a package deal. The head of the Royals hedge fund has literally staked his claim to the value lying somewhere deep down in that early rookie season promise and those minor league earnings reports. Unfortunately, they've hit rock bottom. Believers are still selling hard, they bought way too much and are trying to artificially inflate the value of these two stocks in order to recoup massive losses. The problem is that at this point, as a Royals fan, the only thing you can do is not look at the box score every night hoping to see signs of life, you'll inevitably read too much into any random 2-hit night. The only way to make sense of this is to remember way back when the Dow Jones was at 6,000, it's now over 15,000. These things sometimes get worse before they get better, but if you're an impatient earnings hound, we can't blame you for passing on these two. When hedge fund manger Ned Yost was asked to compare the struggles of these two to former players and offer a bit of hope, he brought up the names of Scott Posednik and JJ Hardy (listen here for more) . Not Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun. Unfortunately, in all seriousness, that might be the realistic upside for these two they way they're heading. What should we tell you? Be patient, look at Alex Gordon, they'll come around, don't worry, keep your chin up, this takes time, etc.? The PBR might now be moving from a moderate Hold recommendation to a strong Sell. We've lost patience, they've got so far to go to even be average major league players that we're not sticking around for JJ Hardy upside.
Ervin Santana-James Shields-Wade Davis-Jeremy Guthrie Value Advantage Fund: All in all, not a bad little starting pitcher mutual fund. The fee to buy-in wasn't cheap, but as a group you have to be happy with the earnings they've given you in the first quarter. We've now seen all of them start to shed their early gains, but with no injuries and three out of four with ERAs under 4.00, we'll take it. The PBR was fairly skeptical of the Santana and Guthrie portfolio additions and high on the James Shields stock option, but time will tell on this one. The only problem is that ugly Wade Davis index fund dragging down the earnings on this otherwise solid investment. This stock is a super duper HOLD; these are the Royals and things go sour too quickly to think about putting your retirement fund into these four right arms. At this point, no long time Royals fan would even blink if they were all four on the DL by August.
Bullpen High Yield Bond Fund: this mutual fund is classic Royal's market share. The first guy to be demoted on the entire teamed looked like Aroldis Chapman for the second half of last year and the first few games of this season. Then he basically gave up at least one home run every game since then while manager Ned continued to try to will it into working. Our closer's has surprisingly good number, but the surprising part is how they can be so good when I've seen him blow so many games. Obvioulsy, it has just been a select few very noticable losses, but this chink in his armer doesn´t inspire confidence going forward. The rest have been, somwhat predictable; Hoch has worked well anytime it hasn't been important, Crow has been irrelevant, Collins looks like the best one day and the wort the very next, Chen is Chen and the rest don´t really matter. As a package this is the only mutual fund I am actually buying, but that's because we recommended selling when they peaked in value. Now that they have lost most of their value a stock buy back approach might net you a few dollars at some point. That had so much valut at one point, it seems hard to imagine that they weren't worth something. Would you have missed them if they were part of the James Shields package? Probably not, but I'm also not going to claim I told you so and that we could have traded them for Justin Upton (I have no idea what Holland or Herrera would have gotten you, but Mark Melancon for Jed Lorwie seems like a good comp).
Royals Fund Managers: I've been pretty much hating on Ned Yost since the first time he opened his mouth, and have vacillated heavily on Moore. I would be the 700,000th Royals blogger to suggest that the Yost needs to go, but misery loves company so Ned goes now and Dayton goes at the end of the year if firing him doesn't fix it. They have literally driven the Royals portfolio into the ground.
Jeff Francouer-Chris Getz Small Cap Growth Fund: We're going to spend very little time on these two because they are symptoms not the root of the problem. We feel like the PBR investment strategists have wasted entirely too much time trying to explain just how little value there is in these two stocks. We've hated on them so much, that we briefly have looked into buying a few shares based on the belief that no stock could still be listed on the MLB Stock Exchange and under perform to this degree. It turns out the problem is that the managers of the Royals hedge fund ignore all of the evidence which points to the fact that they are the only one's selling their scrappy, gritty, veteran leadering, defense first, BS mutual fund. They are junk bonds, penny stocks, Greek banks, default credit swaps all wrapped up in one offense destroying mutual fund. But they aren't the real problem...
Eric Hosmer-Mike Moustakas Core Value Fund: It's obvious why these two are a package deal. The head of the Royals hedge fund has literally staked his claim to the value lying somewhere deep down in that early rookie season promise and those minor league earnings reports. Unfortunately, they've hit rock bottom. Believers are still selling hard, they bought way too much and are trying to artificially inflate the value of these two stocks in order to recoup massive losses. The problem is that at this point, as a Royals fan, the only thing you can do is not look at the box score every night hoping to see signs of life, you'll inevitably read too much into any random 2-hit night. The only way to make sense of this is to remember way back when the Dow Jones was at 6,000, it's now over 15,000. These things sometimes get worse before they get better, but if you're an impatient earnings hound, we can't blame you for passing on these two. When hedge fund manger Ned Yost was asked to compare the struggles of these two to former players and offer a bit of hope, he brought up the names of Scott Posednik and JJ Hardy (listen here for more) . Not Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun. Unfortunately, in all seriousness, that might be the realistic upside for these two they way they're heading. What should we tell you? Be patient, look at Alex Gordon, they'll come around, don't worry, keep your chin up, this takes time, etc.? The PBR might now be moving from a moderate Hold recommendation to a strong Sell. We've lost patience, they've got so far to go to even be average major league players that we're not sticking around for JJ Hardy upside.
Ervin Santana-James Shields-Wade Davis-Jeremy Guthrie Value Advantage Fund: All in all, not a bad little starting pitcher mutual fund. The fee to buy-in wasn't cheap, but as a group you have to be happy with the earnings they've given you in the first quarter. We've now seen all of them start to shed their early gains, but with no injuries and three out of four with ERAs under 4.00, we'll take it. The PBR was fairly skeptical of the Santana and Guthrie portfolio additions and high on the James Shields stock option, but time will tell on this one. The only problem is that ugly Wade Davis index fund dragging down the earnings on this otherwise solid investment. This stock is a super duper HOLD; these are the Royals and things go sour too quickly to think about putting your retirement fund into these four right arms. At this point, no long time Royals fan would even blink if they were all four on the DL by August.
Bullpen High Yield Bond Fund: this mutual fund is classic Royal's market share. The first guy to be demoted on the entire teamed looked like Aroldis Chapman for the second half of last year and the first few games of this season. Then he basically gave up at least one home run every game since then while manager Ned continued to try to will it into working. Our closer's has surprisingly good number, but the surprising part is how they can be so good when I've seen him blow so many games. Obvioulsy, it has just been a select few very noticable losses, but this chink in his armer doesn´t inspire confidence going forward. The rest have been, somwhat predictable; Hoch has worked well anytime it hasn't been important, Crow has been irrelevant, Collins looks like the best one day and the wort the very next, Chen is Chen and the rest don´t really matter. As a package this is the only mutual fund I am actually buying, but that's because we recommended selling when they peaked in value. Now that they have lost most of their value a stock buy back approach might net you a few dollars at some point. That had so much valut at one point, it seems hard to imagine that they weren't worth something. Would you have missed them if they were part of the James Shields package? Probably not, but I'm also not going to claim I told you so and that we could have traded them for Justin Upton (I have no idea what Holland or Herrera would have gotten you, but Mark Melancon for Jed Lorwie seems like a good comp).
Royals Fund Managers: I've been pretty much hating on Ned Yost since the first time he opened his mouth, and have vacillated heavily on Moore. I would be the 700,000th Royals blogger to suggest that the Yost needs to go, but misery loves company so Ned goes now and Dayton goes at the end of the year if firing him doesn't fix it. They have literally driven the Royals portfolio into the ground.
Tuesday, May 7, 2013
Yostie´s mouth is back
So far this year the airtight baseball manager logic hadn't yet flowed out of Ned Yost's mouth in any clearly damaging capacity. That was until yesterday. Lets take a quick look at his justification for not leaving James Shields in after pitching eight scoreless innings of two-hit baseball (obviously, I'm not the one who noticed):
“In a one-run game,” Yost said, “(if) you send (the starter out) out, he’s either going to win it or lose it. So you let the closer go out and try to do his job.”
Okay...get ready because we are about to tumble deep down the well of Yostian logical incompatibilities regarding this new gem of a quote. So, first of all, his justification relies on the utterly meaningless win-loss stat, kind of (we´ll come back to this). Further we can only assume that it also relies on that managerial psychology Yost so famously employs to protect his player's psyche. We are then to assume that a starter losing a ball game after pitching eight scoreless innings would be so damaging to his mental state that the repercussions would be nearly fatal. If James Shields had gone out and given up a run or two in the ninth, he might retire from baseball and move to a Tibetan monastery and never speak again. We must stop to point out that apparently this rule is only applicable in a one-run game, given the previous statement, the fact that Jeremy Guthrie was allowed to close out his game a few days ago and this response from James Shields:
"...and I think if we scored another run right there [in the previous inning], he (Ned Yost) was gonna leave me out there."
We're getting pretty deep down the well here, so lets stop and review. In a one run game you don´t leave your starting pitcher in to finish it because starting pitchers can´t handle losing ball games that are so close. This is also James Shields, the guy we gave up our best hitting and best pitching prospect to get two years of potential nine inning complete game shutouts and, yes, WINS!!! However, obviously this is irrelevant when you arrive at the Yostian One Run Lead Axiom of Managerial Bullpen Usage Theory. This is also closely related to the Yostian One Run Lead Existential Dread Theory of Fragile Starting Pitcher Mental Stability. We also need only dig into Ned Yost, Ph.D.'s research a few games back to see how clear this theory is. Four starts prior in Toronto, in the EXACT same situation, Ned Yost let this very James Shields pitch the ninth inning. However, this was when he was already losing the game, so clearly he had already been mentally conditioned to the prospect of losing a close game and therefore Ned's previous two theories are no longer applicable.
Once we have understood this concept, we then must move to the conclusion: none of these rules apply to relievers. Obviously this has to be true or you could only use them in two-run lead situations and therefore only position players would be allowed to pitch with one-run leads in the ninth. Parsing through his quote some more we are to understand that it is the JOB of a closer to pitch with one run leads in the ninth, but this is clearly not the JOB of a starting pitcher. Not Even the Ace of the staff, the Veteran Leader and certainly not the guy who led the league in Complete Games two years ago. No the mental state of a reliever with two years experience and an already erratic year, he is the guy you trust, because that's his JOB.
We're here, at the very bottom. Because we must now conclude that it is only a starter's JOB to win baseball games when the lead is greater than one run in the ninth inning. If a starter pitches a great game and holds the team without scoring over eight innings, but his team happens to only score one run, then and only then is when a starting pitcher loses his job of winning baseball games and it now becomes the job of the closer to SAVE games. It has nothing to do with pitch counts, nothing to do with the quality of a starting pitcher, nothing to do with how he is pitching in the game, no when the game is 1-0, you pull the starting pitcher because...I´m sorry but I can´t go on.
“(if) you send (the starter out) out, he’s either going to win it or lose it." Yes, Ned, this is exactly what happens EVERY TIME a starting pitcher, or a baseball team for that matter, walks out on the field. You either win or lose (presumably Ned was actually trying to do the former) and the best way to win is to LEAVE YOUR BEST PITCHER IN THE GAME!!!!!! Don't make up ridiculous rules that have nothing to do with the actual game situation. This is Ned Yost, this is the stuff that comes out of his mouth constantly and these are the decisions which lead to Royal losses.
Friday, April 12, 2013
Cautious Pessimism
Two and a half games into the season I was just about ready to forgo the PBR's brief brush with a glass half full stance on the season and start in on full ridicule mode. Then, somehow they scratched together a few trash runs, Jeremy Guthrie struck out nine batters and the Royals have gone 6-1 since being on the verge of a sweep at the hands of the White Sox to open the season. However, while it's nice to know that we can sweep a really bad team and kick another team when they're down (or old, in the case of the Phillies), there is still a lot worry about. So until we start taking two of three from the Tigers, Rangers or any team in the AL East, we're going to implement the PBR's new mantra of cautious pessimism and go over a few reason why this won't continue:
Still Not Playing Long Ball: When CoCo Crisp has as many home runs as your entire team nine games into the season, we can cry small sample size fluke all we want, but it still isn't pretty. The main concern would be the double zeros from Hosmer and Moose; we're not going to get too worked up about this yet because at least Hosmer has been hitting relatively well, but that sophomore slump isn't going to be forgotten until a few fly balls reach the seats. As for Moose, despite being happy that he's proven to be a good third baseman defensively, he's currently no more valuable than Alberto Callaspo and is still miles away from being the guy to break Steve Balboni's Hank Aaron-like Royals HR record. They fired Kevin Sitzer, gave his job to two people and Ned Yostie spoketh, but still the team looks to be reliant entirely upon singles and doubles and it's hard to say if that will ever be enough to win.
James Shields (Veteran Leader Extraordinaire): We love the early season hype for the leadership abilities and such, but the fact is that right now he's not an ace (though almost no ace has been an ace so far) and he'll need to have a couple more games like his first outing (when he got beat by an ace) to really get back on track to being the #1 we all waned to see. Not the good, but not great pitcher he was criticized for being at the time of the big trade.
Wade Davis (5th starter Extraordinaire?): Dark Horse, Break out candidate, potential, mystery, or just plain 5th starter? He got hit hard one day and threw a very suspect shutout the next time versus the worst team in baseball. We need to see more to believe he's any better than Jake Odorizzi (or even Bruce Chen), we've got plenty of time, but the dream of a third starter will die quickly if he can't get better soon.
The Schedule: Unfortunately, I think we can safely assume that the Sox, Phillies and Twins are the easiest nine games we'll play for a long time. We've got every one's preseason World Series favorites coming to town this weekend, but the Atlanta-Boston-Detroit road trip after that will be what really sets the tone for early season optimism.
I have this strange feeling that at the exact moment we finally believe in the Royals and they're playing good baseball for a stretch, they'll pull the rug out and collapse in fantastic fashion. So until game 162 is in the books and the Royals have won the division, we're sticking with being cautiously pessimistic.
Friday, February 22, 2013
27 Years and counting...
New Year´s Resolution: Stopping the counting at 27 years
The 2013 Royals are here and while we keep our fingers crossed that instead of the Rays being led to the playoffs by Rookie of the Year Wil Myers, we hope that a 90-win James Shields led Royals team can stop the PBR from writing about about year number 28. However, the real question this year might be if winning the division/wild-card is really a necessity?
One of the main criticisms about the biggest trade in Royals history was that it seriously overestimated the quality of the current roster and instead makes them a possible 80+win team with delusions of grandeur. Unfortunately for the fans of the trade, this logic is pretty sound. Entertaining the idea of winning the division takes some serious leaps of faith; first it has to be an absolute given that James Shields is who we think he is, second at least one of either Santana or Guthrie has to resemble a #2/3 starter. Then there has to be a surprise from the current rotation; be it 180 innings and a 3.8 ERA from Wade Davis, a surprise dominant 80 innings down the stretch from Paulino/Duffy, a miracle from Bruce Chen or a trade for Roy Halladay, something like this is key. Oh and by the way, the bullpen has to be even better than last year, which will be hard to accomplish.
You can see that we're already starting to take on some pretty big 'ifs' to get to 90 wins, but we're not done yet. Assuming that the pitching goes as designed above, the offense needs the ghost who possessed Eric Hosmer's body last year to be exercised and for him to get back on the future-star track. Then Sal Perez, Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas and Alcides Escobar all have to be good, oh yeah AND healthy. Of course all of this also assumes that neither Billy Butler nor Alex Gordon will regress even one half of one percent and that they too will stay healthy. And finally there has to be a competent major league baseball player occupying 2nd base and/or right field this year; we can´t have the worst player in baseball in RF and potentially the worst platoon in baseball of Getz and Miguel Tejada playing 2B.
It's a long list and I submitted it to Sana Clause, but he never got back to me.
New Years Resolution: Reality sinks in
Okay, so now a some time has passed and we didn't get around to buying that gym membership, we just ate take-out for the 3rd night in a row and we're still at the same job. The reality is that all of the above might not happen. So would playing a sold out series at the K against the Detroit Tigers on the first weekend in September be a good year, even if in the end we finish a distant second in the division?
For me the answer is yes. Obviously if Wil Myers does blow-up and becomes the Rookie of the Year while James Shields is on the DL, this might be different. However, I'm willing to accept that an 80+ win season is worth a lot of risks from the fans point of view. The most memorable season for the Royals in the last 20 years was when Lima Time was a Cy Young candidate, Angel Berroa was the ROY and Tony Pena (Sr.) was designing tee-shirt slogans. That was ten years ago. This is the starvation of a Royals fan.
The people who were vehemently against the trade believe that giving up Wil Myers to get to 81-81 is insanity. This may be true, but wasn't waiting around to see if Wil Myers is really the savior also the same insanity that we've been subjected to as Royals fans for the last 20+ years? Convincing us that we are just one superstar prospect away from being good has been the motto of this organization for a while, but now we're getting a new message: the young guys are here, we just need a few proven players and we'll be able to contend. Again, this may also be delusional, but changing the message is exactly what had to be done in my opinion. The way it was done could have disastrous consequences if Wil Myers is awesome, but Wil Myers could also have been awesome on a 75 win team, we've seen it before (Sweeney, Dye, Beltran, Gordon, Butler, etc.).
So let's just assume that this is who we are. Unfortunately it took giving up one of the top five prospects in baseball just to get to be in the middle of the pack. That's how bad it's been for the Royals and I'm okay with what it took to get there, others think it was crazy and that's okay. However, if we accept that this may just be the first step and winning the World Series isn't the true goal of the 2013 Royals then we're able to put a little perspective on the situation. Taking the giant leap to a 90+ win division champ is going to be difficult, but making the first baby steps to becoming a .500 team is perfectly acceptable for me.
This Year's Resolution: Progress is progress
I think that at the end of the season, if we end up with some excitement, hope and a few interesting games in August and maybe into September, most people will be okay with that even if we're 7 games back of the Tigers at 82-80. Was it necessary to give up Wil Myers just for that? We have to agree to accept the fact that we'll never know. However, I'm in the camp of people that think it was necessary to do something fairly drastic for the sake of progress. If the Royals fail this year, it probably won't be because they didn't have Wil Myers. This team is more than qualified to be a .500 team and at least make the Tigers sweat a little. From a fan's perspective this seems worth the risk to me. Nothing is guaranteed, claiming that the Royals gave up on some sort of dynasty team by letting go of Wil Meyers is one kind of insanity, even if believing that James Shields makes this year's team a contender is another form of insanity. However, the worst kind of insanity is doing nothing and telling yourself over and over again that one day it will come.
The 2013 Royals are here and while we keep our fingers crossed that instead of the Rays being led to the playoffs by Rookie of the Year Wil Myers, we hope that a 90-win James Shields led Royals team can stop the PBR from writing about about year number 28. However, the real question this year might be if winning the division/wild-card is really a necessity?
One of the main criticisms about the biggest trade in Royals history was that it seriously overestimated the quality of the current roster and instead makes them a possible 80+win team with delusions of grandeur. Unfortunately for the fans of the trade, this logic is pretty sound. Entertaining the idea of winning the division takes some serious leaps of faith; first it has to be an absolute given that James Shields is who we think he is, second at least one of either Santana or Guthrie has to resemble a #2/3 starter. Then there has to be a surprise from the current rotation; be it 180 innings and a 3.8 ERA from Wade Davis, a surprise dominant 80 innings down the stretch from Paulino/Duffy, a miracle from Bruce Chen or a trade for Roy Halladay, something like this is key. Oh and by the way, the bullpen has to be even better than last year, which will be hard to accomplish.
You can see that we're already starting to take on some pretty big 'ifs' to get to 90 wins, but we're not done yet. Assuming that the pitching goes as designed above, the offense needs the ghost who possessed Eric Hosmer's body last year to be exercised and for him to get back on the future-star track. Then Sal Perez, Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas and Alcides Escobar all have to be good, oh yeah AND healthy. Of course all of this also assumes that neither Billy Butler nor Alex Gordon will regress even one half of one percent and that they too will stay healthy. And finally there has to be a competent major league baseball player occupying 2nd base and/or right field this year; we can´t have the worst player in baseball in RF and potentially the worst platoon in baseball of Getz and Miguel Tejada playing 2B.
It's a long list and I submitted it to Sana Clause, but he never got back to me.
New Years Resolution: Reality sinks in
Okay, so now a some time has passed and we didn't get around to buying that gym membership, we just ate take-out for the 3rd night in a row and we're still at the same job. The reality is that all of the above might not happen. So would playing a sold out series at the K against the Detroit Tigers on the first weekend in September be a good year, even if in the end we finish a distant second in the division?
For me the answer is yes. Obviously if Wil Myers does blow-up and becomes the Rookie of the Year while James Shields is on the DL, this might be different. However, I'm willing to accept that an 80+ win season is worth a lot of risks from the fans point of view. The most memorable season for the Royals in the last 20 years was when Lima Time was a Cy Young candidate, Angel Berroa was the ROY and Tony Pena (Sr.) was designing tee-shirt slogans. That was ten years ago. This is the starvation of a Royals fan.
The people who were vehemently against the trade believe that giving up Wil Myers to get to 81-81 is insanity. This may be true, but wasn't waiting around to see if Wil Myers is really the savior also the same insanity that we've been subjected to as Royals fans for the last 20+ years? Convincing us that we are just one superstar prospect away from being good has been the motto of this organization for a while, but now we're getting a new message: the young guys are here, we just need a few proven players and we'll be able to contend. Again, this may also be delusional, but changing the message is exactly what had to be done in my opinion. The way it was done could have disastrous consequences if Wil Myers is awesome, but Wil Myers could also have been awesome on a 75 win team, we've seen it before (Sweeney, Dye, Beltran, Gordon, Butler, etc.).
So let's just assume that this is who we are. Unfortunately it took giving up one of the top five prospects in baseball just to get to be in the middle of the pack. That's how bad it's been for the Royals and I'm okay with what it took to get there, others think it was crazy and that's okay. However, if we accept that this may just be the first step and winning the World Series isn't the true goal of the 2013 Royals then we're able to put a little perspective on the situation. Taking the giant leap to a 90+ win division champ is going to be difficult, but making the first baby steps to becoming a .500 team is perfectly acceptable for me.
This Year's Resolution: Progress is progress
I think that at the end of the season, if we end up with some excitement, hope and a few interesting games in August and maybe into September, most people will be okay with that even if we're 7 games back of the Tigers at 82-80. Was it necessary to give up Wil Myers just for that? We have to agree to accept the fact that we'll never know. However, I'm in the camp of people that think it was necessary to do something fairly drastic for the sake of progress. If the Royals fail this year, it probably won't be because they didn't have Wil Myers. This team is more than qualified to be a .500 team and at least make the Tigers sweat a little. From a fan's perspective this seems worth the risk to me. Nothing is guaranteed, claiming that the Royals gave up on some sort of dynasty team by letting go of Wil Meyers is one kind of insanity, even if believing that James Shields makes this year's team a contender is another form of insanity. However, the worst kind of insanity is doing nothing and telling yourself over and over again that one day it will come.
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