Monday, August 29, 2011

A Dayton Late and a Dollar Short

In a stirring announcement over the weekend, Dayton Moore admitted (indirectly) that the Powder Blue Room had it right and he should explore trading prospects for starting pitching. While we thank Dayton for his candor, we're still waiting for an official offer to become the new Assistant GM. All kidding aside, this is both good news and yet another possible indication that Dayton's timing will never be enough to get the Royals to the next level. Correct me if I'm wrong, but the Royals no longer have any top prospects that can fetch a #1 starting pitcher? Not to mention, I don't think there is a #1 or even a #2 on the trade market, again correct me if I'm wrong

Right about now is when most Royals fans start to talk about how good the Chiefs are going to be this year and forget all about the Royals (unless your buddy gets free tickets from someone at the office). However, if you're like me and feel that football in August is an abomination and actually wish the lockout would have lasted until after the World Series, then you've got some things on your mind. Namely, with the Tigers series starting today, what would make the difference between what the Royals are now (20+ games under .500) and this series being an important late season battle between the two division leaders? According to my calculations, it's actually not that much.

During the trade deadline I proposed three trades (see Ubaldo Jimenez & Wandy Rodriguez and Carlos Zambrano) which all look (admittedly) to be pretty misguided right now. And maybe they were and will be in the future, but I'm going to put forth a simple proposition which, in conjunction with a reasonable change in fortune, would put the Royals into contention this year for the division title. Here are the what iffs; if during the 2010 trade deadline the Royals had traded for Dan Haren and if Joakim was having a dominant year the Royals would have approximately a 12 win differential giving them a 67-67 record and within shouting distance of Detroit. It wouldn't give them the Phillies record, but all things being equal, I think we'd take it in KC. It is the AL Central after all.

So let's go back in time to last year's trade deadline...Dan Haren was a good pitcher having a bad year (4.6 ERA at time of trade) and Arizona was shedding payroll as fast as possible. The Royals had the best minor league farm system and presumably could have offered the best package to the D'Backs. They didn't (obviously) and the Angels did (obviously). Haren has been one of the best pitchers in the league and the Royals have trotted out one of the league's worst rotation day after day. My calculations assume that Haren would have replaced Sean O'Sullivan and Kyle Davies combined starts this year and made about a 6 win difference (thanks B-Ref WAR). Based on the return Arizona Received the Royals probably could have gotten him for Mike Montgomery plus one or two other prospects.Who knows what it really would have taken from the Royals, but the D'Backs ended up with Joe Saunders and one top 100 prospect. So really any two of the Royals top pitching prospects should have gotten the job done.

The next 6 wins come from Jokiam Soria only blowing one save, this would  be a dominant year, but certainly not impossible. Also, according to the numbers (thanks again B-Ref), the Royals have been a bit unlucky this year so Jokiam is really just a scape goat for luck. This again goes to question Dayton's sense of timing since Joakim has gone from big trading chip to borderline closer in just one year. We all hope Joakim bounces back next year, but if he doesn't it will be anther check mark against the ability for Dayton to pull the trigger at the right time. All of that aside, this change isn't earth shattering and can easily be expected to occur next year.

As we all know, the Royals highly touted left handed pitching prospects have all failed across the board this year. If your biggest success is that one actually made it to the majors and has been healthy, then I guess Duffy is a success. However, none have helped the Royals this year and the odds of them helping next year are pure speculation at best. Now what the Royals have are a bunch of "former top prospects" that might not get you the Dan Harens of the trade market. I'm sure the Royals still have a big package which will get you close or put you in contention with other teams, but last year the Royals had the types of prospects to go out and get anyone. This year I'm not sure that's true.

Admittedly, last year was probably not the time for a big move and the Royals have had some bad luck when it comes to starting pitching prospects. But in the end, all of the improvement this year has really come from unexpected seasons by Frenchy, Melky and Gordon. If we can assume that our offense can only improve from this year (Hosmer and Moose, I'm looking at you) then the Royals are still closer than they have been a long time.

If being an MLB GM is also a game of invisible inches then Dayton could make a big move in the offseason and provide the Royals exactly what they need. But I wonder if he has already missed the boat?

Thursday, August 18, 2011

All Aboard the Dayton Train!

If it wasn't obvious to everyone before, it should be painfully clear now that this is Dayton's team. First it was the full-steam-a head bullpen youth movement. Next, it was white-hot Eric Hosmer over struggling Kila; which has seemed to work out for everyone except Kila. Then it was Moustakas over Betemit; hopefully it works next year but this year it has only helped the Detroit Tigers and made KC even worse. Then it was Getz over Aviles, who was subsequently recalled and then banished for speaking out against the regime. Then Dayton got serious and called-up Giovatella to replace Getz, Kyle Davies (drunkenly) fell from even Dayton's good grace, and now Dayton's prized rookie catcher has taken over the backstop for good (Pena never could get a chance with the Royals).

And if that wasn't clear enough for you, the final piece to his puzzle has been completed with the two year extension given to his love child, Jeff Francouer. For all of the obvious ways we could choose to make fun of this signing, let's first give Dayton his due credit for this and the Melky signing. It worked out, it could have gone differently but somehow both of these guys are having very good years and Dayton looks like a smart guy. On the other hand, I'm not going to sit here call Moore a genius. He signed two guys that no other team wanted because they were cheap and it still may be true that he has a CF in Omaha who's better than both of them. Who knows?

We're now all just along for the ride while Dayton conducts what will be our KC Royals for the near future. The way I see it two things will determine the success of the Dayton Moore led effort to resurrect the fortunes of the Royals...

The Youth

This might be overstating the obvious, but it is the young players who determine determine the fate of the team. Now that they have their spirited leader Frenchy inked for two more years, Dayton has placed his on the field mouth piece to lead for better or worse. In reality, what will be more important is whether Hosmer or Moustakas really become superstars. By superstar I don't mean Gordon/Melky/Frenchy-type bounce back years. I mean Fielder/Braun/Upton/Cabrera/Votto-like dominant years. It's all on Hosmer's shoulders now, but hopefully Moose still has it in him. There still isn't a great hitter on the team, there are several good ones, but finding someone who can really scare opposing pitchers is what gets a team to the next level. Dayton has done his best to sign and pay for young talent and he now has what he's spent the last few years paying for ready to go. We'll know much more at this time next year, but despite all of the small victories and signs of improvement, Hosmer and Moose have made us no better than Tehan and Buck and Duffy and Crow have not improved us from the likes of  Gobble and MacDougal. So there is still a lot of work to do.

Timing

Timing does play a huge factor in youth development, but that's not what I'm referring to here; prospects will bust and get hurt, that's just how it goes. However, Dayton still hasn't shown the ability to have success making a big move, and at some point he's going to have to make trades and signings which make the Royals good in the present tense. Sure Bubba Starling might be awesome in 5 years, but the Royals are 21 games under .500 RIGHT NOW. Is signing Jeff Francouer for two more years going to change that? Did signing Melky this year change it? Don't answer. Has the Greinke trade helped the team? As it stands right now, the Royals got a big upgrade on Yuni's defense and they got one of the best pitchers in baseball. How well did Jason Kendall work out everyone? Dido on Jose Guillen. Yes, we all love the signings of Melky and Paulino, Frenchy and Chen, but there will come a time when that's just not big enough.  

So everyone kick back and watch as Dayton's Reign begins.

Tuesday, August 2, 2011

Obligatory Post Trade Deadline Wrap

Blockbusters up and down and the Royals stuck in the middle holding on to Melky, Frenchy, Francis and Chen. Apparently, the Cleveland Indians listened to the Powder Blue Room, but the Royals barely made  a squeak in the trade market. The Royals essentially dumped two players taking up space on their bench for players who aren't contractually required to take-up space on the bench. So what happened to Dayton and his patented trade deadline specials? I think he got a little too big for his britches. Given that there was absolutely no need to trade anyone for payroll reasons, I think Dayton tried to play hardball and got what he should have expected. Now we have to wait and see if it was a case overvaluing players or rightfully balking at the paltry returns offered for the likes of Melky and Frenchy. The hardest part is that we really don't know, while MLB Trade Rumors does a fantastic job of making us think we know. In the end we have no idea of what, who, when and if any offers came for the Royals' players, still that doesn't stop us from pretending we know more than our GM...

Melky

Dayton's Price:  I want a high upside MLB ready starting pitcher.

The Rest of the League's Response:  Yes Dayton, everyone would love to turn a million dollar gamble and half a season from a slightly above average CF into a starting pitcher, but what you really get is Vin Mazarro or someone who throws 100 MPH, but has more walks than strike-outs pitching down in AA.

The Reality:  Dayton probably played this one well, there was just simply no reason give away Melky for anything less than real talent. He's cheap, under team control and if he continues to play like this will be worth as much during the offseason or at next year's trade deadline. Also, I'm guessing that no one in the league really bought the whole "Melky finally figured it out" storyline and decided the better options of Beltran, Pence, Bourn, Upton, Rasmus et al, were more worth the prospect price tag. It actually was a pretty loaded outfield market and Melky was about 7th best on that list, so let him continue to build value for a future trade or maybe he helps you make a playoff run next year? No harm done having Melky around for a while longer.

Frenchy

Dayton's Price tag:  See Melky Cabrera and double it.

The Rest of the League's Response:  Very funny Dayton, do you realize that I'm going to use him only as a platoon outfielder to hit against soft-tossing lefties. No really Dayton, he's not an everyday player. Dayton everyone in the league passed on him except for you. Are you serious, our #1 pitching prospect for him, this conversation is over.

The Reality: Any other GM in baseball in the Royals situation would have traded Frenchy for a AA lefty bullpen arm, moved Melky to RF and immediately called up Lorenzo Cain. But this is the love affair that is Dayton Moore & Jeff Francouer. I'm willing to admit that he has played pretty well this year, much better than anyone expected, and I love watching him throw people out at the plate, but the thought of negotiating a 2+ year deal with him at the end of the year is just scary. Or even worse, the thought of watching him hit .180 in September while Cain rides the bench or stays in AAA and then execising his mutual option. The only way I like this is if you're a really cunning GM who wants to preserve Cain's value and include him in a big blockbuster deal this offseason for a starting pitcher because you know the Frenchy/Melky combo is more reliable and only costs a few mil. But I don't see that coming from Dayton and Frenchy has created an unnecessary bottleneck and if he continues to play well will simply be too expensive at the end of the year, but if he plays poorly will also be too expensive. I just don't see how the Royals come out on top with this situation.

Jeff Francis

Dayton's Price:  A toolsy 2B in AA plus another bullpen arm.

The Rest of the League's Response:  Again, Dayton we like the signing, we all give you props for getting Francis this offseason on the cheap, but what exactly is your leverage here? If we don't give you our best young infield prospect, you'll keep him and maybe not loose 100 games? Take our 7th best outfield prospect in low A ball and move on with life.

The Reality: There might never have been a real Jeff Francis Market. I'd like to believe that if you can trade Jason Marquis and Doug F-ing Fister for something then Francis is worth a prospect, but other teams also might not have been buying the "Jeff Francis difference maker" storyline. The truth is that the chances of Jeff Francis being more help than your best AAA pitcher are very slim. The problem here is the same as Jeff Francouer; if he pitches well you might win a few more games in September, but he'll cost too much to re-sign and if sucks it up or gets hurt, you could have gotten the same from Mazarro or O'Sullivan and had the prospect and a few 100K to boot. I think what happened is that Francis' last good start came too late, he needed two or three really good starts right before the deadline in order to sucker any team into giving up a prospect, but that didn't happen and there never was much on the table for Francis.

Bruce Chen

Dayton's Price: Same as Francis plus some icing.

The Rest of the League's Response:  Dayton did you see his last start vs. Boston 4 IP, 10 ER, nuff said. Brian Cashman continually forwarded the box score to Dayton via text message until he stopped calling.

The Reality:  Contrary to the Jeff Francis situation, Chen's implosion in Boston came just in time for any potential suitors to see this and pull all offers off the table and move on to the next veteran lefty. His 3.3 ERA looked great and then came the Boston game, after which his 4.3 ERA didn't look so good. You can never be sure, but if I were about to take a prospect gamble on Bruce Chen and then saw that game, I would immediately delete Dayton from my speed dial. Dayton probably didn't adjust his price on Chen post Boston Massacre and surprisingly (only so to Dayton) no teams called on Chen's availability.

The best thing to come from this trade deadline is that Mike Aviles found a good home and no longer has to watch Chris Getz hit four infield/bunt singles per week while he and Mitch play five-card-draw waiting to pinch run for Billy Butler in the 9th. Other than that, nothing happened. It may play out to be a shrewed move when Dayton trades Lorenzo Cain back to Milwaukee for Zack Greinke and Melky and Frenchy get even better next year. But it could also turn out to be a complete waste of time as Frenchy signs with Philly in the offseason for more money, or Melky decides to go back to eating roasted chickens two at a time, Chen and Francis move on and the books are closed on those players. We'll just have to wait and see.