He's Gone, our Zach has left the building. I had been praying all along that this wouldn't happen before the season started, but recent events all but killed any prospect of this happening and so the Royals did what they had to do. Without worrying too much about the specific prospects, this is pretty much the best possible outcome for everyone involved. It was finished fast, we didn't have to drag it out for another week and in the end everyone should be happy, perhaps most of all Zach Greinke.
Zach now finds himself on a club that will compete and, in my opinion, could make it to the World Series if no one gets hurt and they all perform at their peak levels and Philly chokes (lots of ifs but they have a pretty solid base). He will be surrounded by players that have won previously and who are professionals; as opposed to the rag-tag group of mutts that he has spent the last few years playing with. Its Milwaukee, he doesn't have to worry about the big stage, pressure or rabid fans AND he gets to swing the bat (I'll start the over under on Greinke HRs next year at 3). The Royals don't have to face him next year - barring the most unlikely world series match-up in history - and as a Royals fan you can still root for Greinke; Toronto, Texas and especially New York would have been tough to stomach. For Zach, it couldn't have turned out better and if you still hold a little bit of love for him as a fan it's a fitting place for him as well.
The Royals got, more or less, what they wanted; a defensive whiz SS and a possible legit starting CF (the "up-the-middle" guys) AND they got rid of Yuniesky, which is no small feat by itself. If Alcides Escobar and Lorenzo Cain can play their as advertised above average defense and resemble something approaching the level of major league hitters, then they will be as valuable as Greinke would have been next year. The pitchers sound good in theory and if one turns out to be who is projected to be, along with the position players, the Royals will probably win long-term in the deal. The players we got in return have a surprising amount of big league experience, I had foreseen the Royals picking-up players that we wouldn't see for a year, but we might actually see three of the four play the whole season at the big-league level, which would be a big surprise and make the deal much more palatable. They're dirt cheap, we save the $27 mil on Greinke's contract and get a bunch of league minimum players, I'm not sure what the savings mean at this point, but in 2011 the Royals could conceivably spend big-time bucks on a worthy free-agent or go the predictable Billy Butler long-term extension route.
The relatively sweet and quick ending to this story should leave Royals fans and Zach Greinke relieved and able to enjoy the Holiday season a bit more. It's sad to see him go, but he's definitely in a better place now, and most likely so are the Royals.
Sunday, December 19, 2010
Wednesday, December 15, 2010
They like me, they really like me
Dayton Moore awoke Tuesday morning to see that his IPhone had 37 missed calls and 14 new voice mails, the Powder Blue Room was able to intercept some of the voice mails and conversations, the following is a text version of what transpired:
Dayton Moore's IPhone Voice Mail #5:
Brain Cashman (BC): Dayton, this is Brian Cahman from the New York Yankees, I'd appreciate it if you'd give me a call at your earliest convenience, this is my unlisted number DO NOT give it out under any circumstances and call me back from a pay phone.
Dayton Moore (DM) returning BC's message: Hi Mr. Cashman, this Dayton Moore, General Manager of the Kansas City Royals returning your phone call.
BC: Dayton, you can call me Brian now, I need your help, you've got to give me Greinke. Are you calling from a secure phone? I'm in Montana in my panic room, 1000 ft underground, no one knows where I'm at. I had to flee after Cliff Lee signed with the Phillies, the Steinbrenners are threatening castration. I think George has returned from the dead to haunt my dreams, I haven't slept for 50 hours, I can't go back without Zach Greinke.
DM: Well Brian, I'm going to tell you what I've told everyone, let me get my calling sheet for GMs who find themselves in these situations; "We are not actively pursuing a trade with insert player X, I mean Zach Greinke, we will certainly entertain all reasonable offers, but..."
BC: Dayton, cut the bullshit, you like prospects, I don't care about them, you want to talk about the achievements of 20 years olds, I have to win the World Series every year! Do you understand that I'm calling from the the New York Yankees, I just gave $50 mil to a senior citizen. We buy players, that's great if you want to develop them for us, we'll just buy them for $100 mil 5 years later. You can have ANYONE in our minor league system, no problem, I just can't go home until I have Zach, please Dayton they're going after my family next.
DM: Uh...We're not actively shopping Zach, if you have an offer please contact me with said offer and we can discuss it.
BC: Are you an f-ing robot, didn't you hear me? You can have anyone, take our top 5, just give me Zack so I can sleep you little Monkey!
DM: Hold on Brian, I've got another phone call coming in...
BC: F$## You, !!!!!!!!!##$$^&&&&&J####kljd....
(DM puts BC on hold to take the incoming call, wondering if this was really Brian Cashman, the same guy who just last week said he was too busy to go grab lunch at the GM meetings, and who previously made him use his secretary for all communication, or was it Theo Epstein and Bill James prank calling him again)
DM: Good afternoon, Dayton Moore Head General Managing person for the Kansas City Royals.
Nolan Ryan (NR): Dayton, good buddy, it's Nolan Ryan, how's things up there in KC, I hear its colder than a well diggers ass up in your neck of the woods.
DM: Who is this really? I'm the General Manager of a Major League Baseball team with the most talented minor league players in the game, I don't have time to joke around.
NR: Dayton, are you bat shit crazy? This is Nolan Ryan, used to pitch a little bit, now I own the Texas Rangers.
DM: REALLY!!?? The Nolan Ryan, I have to say sir I'm a big fan, I believe this is the first time we've actually spoken, how can I help you?
NR: Dayton, look here, you ain't talked to that Yankee bastard Cashman yet, have ya? Never mind, listen you've got that horse of yours that I'm lookin to get over here to our team, what it'll it take to make this happen?
DM: I believe you've been misinformed Mr. Ryan, I'm a baseball General Manager, I don't have any horses.
NR: Dayton, are you high, Zach Greinke, I need him in Texas, now I know you want a bunch of little ponies for that big stud of yours and I think we got just the group of young bucks you need, what do you say you come down to my ranch, we'll go hunting with some former presidents and make this happen.
DM: I'm sorry, but I don't own a gun, maybe we could meet at my office.
NR: What is wrong with you son? Whatever, call my secretary and set it up.
(Dayton hangs up his IPhone, forgetting about Brian Cashman, thinking he is the most popular man in the world, he finally gets to talk with people who have nothing to do with the Braves organization, he is now a real live GM, tears form in his eyes as begins to watch more minor league film of Eric Hosmer and Mike Montgomery)
The time is now Dayton, this is why GMs get paid the big bucks, choose wisely because you will probably never be this popular again. Everyone is waiting on your call as to what to do with Zach Greinke, the ball is in your court now.
Seriously, could this guy have gotten any luckier? This decision might literally make or brake the Royals as a franchise and this is the guy who gets to make the decision, thankfully Greinke's stock might be so high right now that he can't screw this one up, or can he? What do you do if you're Dayton?
Dayton Moore's IPhone Voice Mail #5:
Brain Cashman (BC): Dayton, this is Brian Cahman from the New York Yankees, I'd appreciate it if you'd give me a call at your earliest convenience, this is my unlisted number DO NOT give it out under any circumstances and call me back from a pay phone.
Dayton Moore (DM) returning BC's message: Hi Mr. Cashman, this Dayton Moore, General Manager of the Kansas City Royals returning your phone call.
BC: Dayton, you can call me Brian now, I need your help, you've got to give me Greinke. Are you calling from a secure phone? I'm in Montana in my panic room, 1000 ft underground, no one knows where I'm at. I had to flee after Cliff Lee signed with the Phillies, the Steinbrenners are threatening castration. I think George has returned from the dead to haunt my dreams, I haven't slept for 50 hours, I can't go back without Zach Greinke.
DM: Well Brian, I'm going to tell you what I've told everyone, let me get my calling sheet for GMs who find themselves in these situations; "We are not actively pursuing a trade with insert player X, I mean Zach Greinke, we will certainly entertain all reasonable offers, but..."
BC: Dayton, cut the bullshit, you like prospects, I don't care about them, you want to talk about the achievements of 20 years olds, I have to win the World Series every year! Do you understand that I'm calling from the the New York Yankees, I just gave $50 mil to a senior citizen. We buy players, that's great if you want to develop them for us, we'll just buy them for $100 mil 5 years later. You can have ANYONE in our minor league system, no problem, I just can't go home until I have Zach, please Dayton they're going after my family next.
DM: Uh...We're not actively shopping Zach, if you have an offer please contact me with said offer and we can discuss it.
BC: Are you an f-ing robot, didn't you hear me? You can have anyone, take our top 5, just give me Zack so I can sleep you little Monkey!
DM: Hold on Brian, I've got another phone call coming in...
BC: F$## You, !!!!!!!!!##$$^&&&&&J####kljd....
(DM puts BC on hold to take the incoming call, wondering if this was really Brian Cashman, the same guy who just last week said he was too busy to go grab lunch at the GM meetings, and who previously made him use his secretary for all communication, or was it Theo Epstein and Bill James prank calling him again)
DM: Good afternoon, Dayton Moore Head General Managing person for the Kansas City Royals.
Nolan Ryan (NR): Dayton, good buddy, it's Nolan Ryan, how's things up there in KC, I hear its colder than a well diggers ass up in your neck of the woods.
DM: Who is this really? I'm the General Manager of a Major League Baseball team with the most talented minor league players in the game, I don't have time to joke around.
NR: Dayton, are you bat shit crazy? This is Nolan Ryan, used to pitch a little bit, now I own the Texas Rangers.
DM: REALLY!!?? The Nolan Ryan, I have to say sir I'm a big fan, I believe this is the first time we've actually spoken, how can I help you?
NR: Dayton, look here, you ain't talked to that Yankee bastard Cashman yet, have ya? Never mind, listen you've got that horse of yours that I'm lookin to get over here to our team, what it'll it take to make this happen?
DM: I believe you've been misinformed Mr. Ryan, I'm a baseball General Manager, I don't have any horses.
NR: Dayton, are you high, Zach Greinke, I need him in Texas, now I know you want a bunch of little ponies for that big stud of yours and I think we got just the group of young bucks you need, what do you say you come down to my ranch, we'll go hunting with some former presidents and make this happen.
DM: I'm sorry, but I don't own a gun, maybe we could meet at my office.
NR: What is wrong with you son? Whatever, call my secretary and set it up.
(Dayton hangs up his IPhone, forgetting about Brian Cashman, thinking he is the most popular man in the world, he finally gets to talk with people who have nothing to do with the Braves organization, he is now a real live GM, tears form in his eyes as begins to watch more minor league film of Eric Hosmer and Mike Montgomery)
The time is now Dayton, this is why GMs get paid the big bucks, choose wisely because you will probably never be this popular again. Everyone is waiting on your call as to what to do with Zach Greinke, the ball is in your court now.
Seriously, could this guy have gotten any luckier? This decision might literally make or brake the Royals as a franchise and this is the guy who gets to make the decision, thankfully Greinke's stock might be so high right now that he can't screw this one up, or can he? What do you do if you're Dayton?
Sunday, December 12, 2010
Yes, we are that predictable
The double meaning embedded in the title goes both for the Royals and the Powder Blue Room, yes we're going to talk about the Jeff Francouer and Melky Cabrera signings, because that is just what a reputable Royals blogger does, even if they know full well that the item has already been talked about to death. Only within this micro realm of sports news would the signing of two outfielders for less than the price of Carl Crawford's bonus garner so much attention and scorn. There is no way to spin this in a positive light; we are that pathetic, predictable and hopeless (both the Royals and their followers), but in the long run this signing won't affect anyone. Apparently we've added two more of the worst offensive players to our already inept battling line-up, probably because that is just the best we could do. It hurts to be so helpless.
The problem really isn't the money or the production of these two players, it is just the fact that we are so frickin obvious; not only is there the whole ex-Brave & Dayton Moore combo, but we did the EXACT same thing last year. What happened here is just a classic case of boredom at the GM meetings, when people stopped calling Dayton Moore to ask about Zach Grienke because he was asking for the entire AA starting line-up from the teams' minor league system, he noticed the reminder on his Outlook calendar telling him to call Francouer's agent. His agent probably had this standard one-year $2.5 mil package that he offered every team in need of an outfielder, Dayton simply said "I'll take it!" Then when Melky's agent noticed this he called Dayton and offered Cabrera for the last minute half price blue light special and Dayton couldn't say no. Most likely our beloved owner told Moore that his budget was no more that what he saved on the DeJesus contract and thus Dayton took that to mean that he Had to spend somewhere around $5 mil, basically what Theo Epstein and Brian Cashman had as a travel and food budget to sign free agents. Working with this in mind, Dayton took his Wal-Mart allowance money and weighed his options; old middle relievers, back-up catchers, fourth outfielders, hmmmm??? He took deep personal stock of his previous actions and judged that his relief pitcher and catcher track record of signings hadn't worked out so well, but he felt that with last year's minor success of Scott Posednik (and to a much lesser degree Rick Ankiel) he was on a roll with outfielders and pulled the trigger on these two guys.
Really what options did the guy poor guy have? I wan't to mock him, but he couldn't even have afforded to resign either of the two catchers he let go last year, would you rather see him bring in another Juan Cruz? Should we have opened up the bank and signed, let's say...Juan Uribe for 3 yrs $25 mil, if he would accept the generous offer to come play for our awful team instead of the Dodgers? We're a long way from even being able to consider going crazy and throwing $125 mil at a premier free agent and most mid tier free agents would ask for an extra year or 20% on their contract because we have become about the least attractive place to sign in all of baseball. So I'm not sure what the hell you do with that kind of money in this insane market. We now have complied an outfield consisting of the biggest group of sad-sack losers that you could possibly put together. Melky, Alex and Frenchy have fallen so far from the big time promise they once held that maybe this collective group therapy will just work. Most likely it will not work and if they all play the whole season the Royals will be contending for the worst outfield ever assembled (I know there is someone out there who's got this stat???).
I wish that I could be angry about this, but I'm just not that concerned with who will be roaming the Royals outfield this year because more likely than not, they will not be very good; be it Mitch Maier, Gregor Blanco, Jarrod Dyson, Melky or Frenchy. I just hope that one day we'll be able to do something as crazy as offering 32 year old outfielders with two years of big league experience $127 mil, but for now this is the best we can do. Please don't trade Greinke!!!
The problem really isn't the money or the production of these two players, it is just the fact that we are so frickin obvious; not only is there the whole ex-Brave & Dayton Moore combo, but we did the EXACT same thing last year. What happened here is just a classic case of boredom at the GM meetings, when people stopped calling Dayton Moore to ask about Zach Grienke because he was asking for the entire AA starting line-up from the teams' minor league system, he noticed the reminder on his Outlook calendar telling him to call Francouer's agent. His agent probably had this standard one-year $2.5 mil package that he offered every team in need of an outfielder, Dayton simply said "I'll take it!" Then when Melky's agent noticed this he called Dayton and offered Cabrera for the last minute half price blue light special and Dayton couldn't say no. Most likely our beloved owner told Moore that his budget was no more that what he saved on the DeJesus contract and thus Dayton took that to mean that he Had to spend somewhere around $5 mil, basically what Theo Epstein and Brian Cashman had as a travel and food budget to sign free agents. Working with this in mind, Dayton took his Wal-Mart allowance money and weighed his options; old middle relievers, back-up catchers, fourth outfielders, hmmmm??? He took deep personal stock of his previous actions and judged that his relief pitcher and catcher track record of signings hadn't worked out so well, but he felt that with last year's minor success of Scott Posednik (and to a much lesser degree Rick Ankiel) he was on a roll with outfielders and pulled the trigger on these two guys.
Really what options did the guy poor guy have? I wan't to mock him, but he couldn't even have afforded to resign either of the two catchers he let go last year, would you rather see him bring in another Juan Cruz? Should we have opened up the bank and signed, let's say...Juan Uribe for 3 yrs $25 mil, if he would accept the generous offer to come play for our awful team instead of the Dodgers? We're a long way from even being able to consider going crazy and throwing $125 mil at a premier free agent and most mid tier free agents would ask for an extra year or 20% on their contract because we have become about the least attractive place to sign in all of baseball. So I'm not sure what the hell you do with that kind of money in this insane market. We now have complied an outfield consisting of the biggest group of sad-sack losers that you could possibly put together. Melky, Alex and Frenchy have fallen so far from the big time promise they once held that maybe this collective group therapy will just work. Most likely it will not work and if they all play the whole season the Royals will be contending for the worst outfield ever assembled (I know there is someone out there who's got this stat???).
I wish that I could be angry about this, but I'm just not that concerned with who will be roaming the Royals outfield this year because more likely than not, they will not be very good; be it Mitch Maier, Gregor Blanco, Jarrod Dyson, Melky or Frenchy. I just hope that one day we'll be able to do something as crazy as offering 32 year old outfielders with two years of big league experience $127 mil, but for now this is the best we can do. Please don't trade Greinke!!!
Monday, November 29, 2010
Jeter to the Royals
In a stunning development today, Derek Jeter decided to shun the NY Yankees and sign a team friendly one year contract with the lowly Kansas City Royals. After Jeter felt betrayed by the Yankees piddly offer to only pay him twice the market rate for a player of his caliber, instead of his desired quadruple market rate salary, he decided that he was up for a new challenge and went to a team who he felt was the complete opposite of the NY Yankees. He also agreed to move to second base in favor of the far superior fielding capabilities of the younger and rangier short stop Yuniesky Betancourt, also realizing that he would have to beat out Chris Getz for the second base job in spring training. He agreed to a one-year, six million dollar deal with KC in hopes to reestablish himself as a premier free agent in next years offseason. Given that we know Jeter is always looking for ways to meet new challenges and overcome obstacles, he feels that through his patented leadership qualities he will be able to lead one of the worst teams to the world series in just one year. It came down to a decision between KC and the Pittsburgh Pirates and he felt that it was time to get out of the east coast take advantage of the low cost of living which Kansas City offers. In an exclusive interview with the Powder Blue Room, Derek stated that the new challenges included; wanting to see if he could actually hit 10 home runs in a real baseball stadium, to see how difficult it is to score 100 runs a year without the benefit of a 100 million dollar batting order hitting behind him, and the added difficulty of fielding behind pitchers who will never get any hall of fame votes. He acknowledged that it will be difficult and he'll miss the ease of riding into the playoffs every year on the coattails of the best team money can buy and that many of his opposite field home runs will not even make it to the warning track, but he feels that his prowess alone will make most teams give up at the mere sight of him dawning an opposing team's uniform, no matter whose uniform it is. He admitted that the strategy is similar to the guy who gets dumped by his girlfriend, then dates the next girl who will have him in an effort to make the old girlfriend jealous and thus take him back, ignoring the faults for which the girlfriend previously dumped him. Jeter also admitted plans for reality based TV show to be aired on FOX and titled "Jeter's Winning Ways", which covers his transition and is likened to a show where CEOs for major corporations agree to pick-up trash to see how real people live. The show will reportedly pay him the difference in money he is forfeiting on the free agent market and will keep his face in prime time, given the Royals current once-every-10-year pace for nationally televised games. All in all, DJ feels that he owes something to the game and wants to bring his winning attitude to a group of losers, demonstrating that his true worth cannot be measured in age, slugging percentage, defensive rage or any thing else which can be measured by numbers.
Yes by now you've caught the whiff of sarcasm and get the joke, but just what would this guy be worth to the Royals is the question? Would you even want him if he said okay, okay from you guys I'll do if for 2yrs/$25 mil? In the end we all know that Jeter will sign a contract for the Yankees worth roughly the value of the 2011 payroll for the Royals, but if you were the GM for the Royals and he approached you and said that he was tired of negotiating with the Yankees and he was willing to play for your team, just what would you offer the guy? How many teams out there would, if they could, match the Yankees initial 3yr/$45 mil offer? It would surprise me if there were two. This year I gave thanks for all of the Jeter vs. Yanks management contract talk and just how hilarious it really is.
Yes by now you've caught the whiff of sarcasm and get the joke, but just what would this guy be worth to the Royals is the question? Would you even want him if he said okay, okay from you guys I'll do if for 2yrs/$25 mil? In the end we all know that Jeter will sign a contract for the Yankees worth roughly the value of the 2011 payroll for the Royals, but if you were the GM for the Royals and he approached you and said that he was tired of negotiating with the Yankees and he was willing to play for your team, just what would you offer the guy? How many teams out there would, if they could, match the Yankees initial 3yr/$45 mil offer? It would surprise me if there were two. This year I gave thanks for all of the Jeter vs. Yanks management contract talk and just how hilarious it really is.
Friday, November 12, 2010
Bye Bye Banny and DeJesus
The Royals got things started early in the offseason by making a quick deal and shipping off long time Royal David DeJesus to the A's and cutting ties with another staple over the past few years in Brian Bannister. While the decision to cut Banny didn't come as much of a surprise, it's still sad to see a familiar face go. However, the decision to trade DeJesus came awfully fast and without much rumoring, poof...just like that he was gone. Discussions about the merits of this trade can be found throughout the world wide Royals web, so rather than break down the trade ad nauseam, we'll quickly summarize our thoughts and give our best send off to a couple of players whom we'll be hoping enjoy greener pastures in the future, because their time with the Royals was painful to say the least.
Banny was, at one time, close to being a solid staple in the Royals rotation, but things just came apart in a hurry. Hell as early as this year he threw a shutout and became the first person to beat Stephen Strausburg, but that was a long time ago and right around that time is when he took a nose dive into Royals abyss. So now the futile two-some of Davies/Bannister is broken up and the Royals will go trodding along without Banny because no decent business man could have paid Banny $2 mil and change coming off the season he put up last year. There is about a 50/50 shot he'll get recycled by some pitching desperate NL team and manage to compile a decent year in 2011 and we here at the PBR sincerely hope that happens. Banny, along with many others, personifies the Royals losing years by being another member of the ALL iffs, almosts, coulda-woulda-shouldas TEAM. IF Banny coulda repeated his 2007 season, Mark Teahen coulda continued his 2006 year, John Buck woulda been a teensy bit better, Alex Gordon woulda been the next George Brett and if Angel Berroa coulda been exactly like his 2003 season forever THEN the Royals might not have sucked soo bad over the last several seasons. However, we all know what actually DID happen and we have to wave good bye to another Almost-Was.
As for DDJ, we actually still might get something for his years of above-averageness and that is definitely worth something. David was a Real Major League player on many, many, many teams containing LOTS of decidedly Non-Major League players. We like David, everyone does, but he was about like having a good looking friend-that-is-a-girl that you have hung out with for years now, but you knew deep down that nothing was ever going to come out of this situation; you were going to keep taking her out for moderately expensive dinners and you still would have just been friends. So I guess trading him for Vinny is about like making out with her slightly younger flirty co-worker - its just business - the friendship is obviously over, but at least you got the co-workers phone number. The consequences of not having DDJ on the 2011 squad are far from grave and the plus is that we now have a pitcher named Vinny to go along with Shaun O'Sullivan, the duo who will from now on be dubbed the Mick and the Whop (no offense), and it gives the Royals a proposed 5 man rotation that doesn't involve Bruce Chen (no offense). The real fun/scary/fantasy GM question now is, who's on Right?? David, we'll miss you, but hopefully you'll be in a better place now and be on a team which doesn't lose 90 games.
No need to shed too many tears over this, lets just keep our fingers crossed and hope that the Royals start bidding on Jayson Werth to replace DDJ, that Vinny isn't the next Banny and that Zach Greinke is still a Royal come next year. All in all, its an interesting enough start the Royals offseason limbo.
Banny was, at one time, close to being a solid staple in the Royals rotation, but things just came apart in a hurry. Hell as early as this year he threw a shutout and became the first person to beat Stephen Strausburg, but that was a long time ago and right around that time is when he took a nose dive into Royals abyss. So now the futile two-some of Davies/Bannister is broken up and the Royals will go trodding along without Banny because no decent business man could have paid Banny $2 mil and change coming off the season he put up last year. There is about a 50/50 shot he'll get recycled by some pitching desperate NL team and manage to compile a decent year in 2011 and we here at the PBR sincerely hope that happens. Banny, along with many others, personifies the Royals losing years by being another member of the ALL iffs, almosts, coulda-woulda-shouldas TEAM. IF Banny coulda repeated his 2007 season, Mark Teahen coulda continued his 2006 year, John Buck woulda been a teensy bit better, Alex Gordon woulda been the next George Brett and if Angel Berroa coulda been exactly like his 2003 season forever THEN the Royals might not have sucked soo bad over the last several seasons. However, we all know what actually DID happen and we have to wave good bye to another Almost-Was.
As for DDJ, we actually still might get something for his years of above-averageness and that is definitely worth something. David was a Real Major League player on many, many, many teams containing LOTS of decidedly Non-Major League players. We like David, everyone does, but he was about like having a good looking friend-that-is-a-girl that you have hung out with for years now, but you knew deep down that nothing was ever going to come out of this situation; you were going to keep taking her out for moderately expensive dinners and you still would have just been friends. So I guess trading him for Vinny is about like making out with her slightly younger flirty co-worker - its just business - the friendship is obviously over, but at least you got the co-workers phone number. The consequences of not having DDJ on the 2011 squad are far from grave and the plus is that we now have a pitcher named Vinny to go along with Shaun O'Sullivan, the duo who will from now on be dubbed the Mick and the Whop (no offense), and it gives the Royals a proposed 5 man rotation that doesn't involve Bruce Chen (no offense). The real fun/scary/fantasy GM question now is, who's on Right?? David, we'll miss you, but hopefully you'll be in a better place now and be on a team which doesn't lose 90 games.
No need to shed too many tears over this, lets just keep our fingers crossed and hope that the Royals start bidding on Jayson Werth to replace DDJ, that Vinny isn't the next Banny and that Zach Greinke is still a Royal come next year. All in all, its an interesting enough start the Royals offseason limbo.
Thursday, October 21, 2010
Greinke For Sale
This has been quite a week for Zack Greinke; first he gets name dropped on the Simpsons, now he is officially on the trading block and figures to have his name mentioned in trade rumors from now until the season starts and it's his 27th birthday today (happy b-day). How are we supposed to react to this news; depression, curiosity, excitement, anger, joy, just what exactly could Zack Greinke trade talk bring to a Royals fan? As it turns out, this is actually one of the best examples of baseball trade game theory that you can come up with and the Royals will, presumably, have the opportunity to weigh many offers from other teams in an attempt to make the correct decision on what to do with Zack. Lets try to over analyze this thing to death:
Timing: A big factor in how to play this game is the timing of the decision as to when it is best to pull the trigger. As others have pointed out, the decision to put his name out there now could be that in this year's free agent market there is Cliff Lee and then no one (think Bruce Chen multi-year deal). Also, the fact that Cliff Lee is out there points to just how valuable Zack is, from 2008-2010 they have almost identical values; while Zack hasn't shown the ability to annihilate teams in the postseason like Lee, Lee is the only one to miss significant time due to injury during that time period and Zack is 5 years younger. So essentially you get someone as valuable as Cliff Lee, but you save $120-$150 MILLION and only give-up a few 20-year-old minor league players who may or may not pan out. Also the fact that Greinke is so cheap means that almost everyone except for the Pirates (and whomever isn't on his no-trade clause) will be able to make offers, whereas if you gamble that he will be the same Zack next year and wait to make the deal until next season's trade deadline when some teams have already been eliminated you don't have the same field to choose from. Basically, you can survey the top minor league players in almost every organization in baseball and say you want A,B,C, D and let the games begin. In the Lee sweepstakes it will be 2 or 3 teams bidding against each other for something that they can't help but to overpay for. However, in the Greinke trade talks the respective teams will most likely have similar chances of the payoff working out in their favor; the Royals will have more upside, but but an equally great downside, ie all prospects bust. Meanwhile, the other team will take less risk by getting a valuable proven, young player for two years at a good price, but they may give up a pair of good young players that would have cost nothing and Zack doesn't lead their team to the playoffs over the next two seasons. But this is the dilemma; do you hold on to Zack and hope that he can fill some seats next season and/or be worth the same or more at next year's deadline or do you get max value for him now and hope that the players pan-out. Forgetting about the risk for injury, which is most likely the only thing that would make him worth significantly less next summer, you have to ask how much more is Zack worth now as opposed to during the season? How much will it adversely affect the current team and fans? And, most importantly, can we actually get what he is worth?
Zack's Value: In terms of what the haul should be, this is really a difficult question and extremely difficult to quantify because of what the Royals will presumably be looking for. In all likelihood the Royals will not be looking for another proven star or semi-star player, this would be the only fair way to evaluate the true worth of Greinke; lets just say the Royals could get a proven position player at about half Greinke's value but at 1/3 of the cost and then another cheap 5th starter or a solid prospect, but also the least likely to happen. Going around the league and looking for these types of combinations would be fun and I'm sure you could find one on just about every baseball team (check out this proposal for example). However, I imagine that the Royals are looking to really cash in on big time prospects who are ready to hit the big leagues, but who will also be making the league min for a few years. This is where it gets cloudy when trying to determine what he's really worth: is it two big-time prospects plus three other mid grade prospects, is it one super big-time prospect, a good prospect and two mid-graders, is it two super big-timers and another marginal guy??? This goes back to the first point about timing and judging if he is actually worth that extra prospect now as opposed to next July, which is almost impossible to surmise. You could break down all of the Cliff Lee trades and see what his worth was, but most of the results of those trades are still out to jury, although you could look at what the Rangers gave up this deadline and say that Zack will still be worth a top level prospect even a year and a half from now. When dealing with prospects you will always find yourself in this situation and the goal is really to give yourself a 60/40 advantage, no matter who the prospect is there will still be a great chance for them to fail, so you need to get several in order to cut those chances down, but the more you take the less you will get on the high end. This is Cy young winner, 27-year-old Zack Greinke we are talking about, but then again he is just one man and through the last three seasons of his greatness the Royals have never come close to a .500 season.
If the PBR controlled the Royals: So now its the offseason and we get to play GM, which is after all is why we would waste all of this time over a seemingly unanswerable question (or pointless, depending on your viewpoint). The bottom line is that Zack is too valuable, in terms of prospects, to trade right now. If Zack could bring in two major league ready pitchers right now and another prospect or a couple of proven, cheap, position players then it might be wise to pull the trigger and add quality depth. As it stands the Royals are in a somewhat enviable position of being able to almost completely dismiss the 2011 season as a Spring, Summer and early Fall Training camp, they are stacked with players for next season - not good ones, but ones that deserve a shot at showing how mediocre and below average they are and then you can begin the real youth movement after the all-star game and look forward to the 2012 all-star game at The K. Zack will always be worth top prospects, just how many is not really that important because all of them have, more or less, the same opportunity to fail so you're gambling with the predictability of the success of 20-year-old kids (not an exact science). If you wait until next season you might lose one good one or a couple of decent ones, but if it is prospects you need then you will get them. Plus it gives you the advantage of being able to see what Zack's worth is to the club, maybe things fall in to place and the Royals can make a run at .500 and Zack gets his Cy-young back (which might make him worth more) and the seats fill up at the K and he gets to have a farewell tour as Royal or pledge his allegiance to the club for their forthcoming glory years. Also, lets say that on the off chance the Royals suck again next year and for example DeJesus gets traded and/or Alex Gordon is a total bust, then you can know that what you need is an impact corner outfielder and take the best one in baseball because some other team is desperate to make the playoffs.
Right now it just seems anti-climactic to trade Greinke, unless you want to turn him into a pair of proven players, there doesn't seem to be a real advantage to shipping him off now versus next summer. Getting a haul of prospects now just doesn't feel right, if you are tired of babying Zack and want to move on then take the best two proven major league players available, but don't give us more prospects. Also, from a selfish perspective, we want to seem him pitch in a Royals uniform again. However, this should add some excitement to an offseason that was shaping up to be the most boring in the history of the Royals.
Timing: A big factor in how to play this game is the timing of the decision as to when it is best to pull the trigger. As others have pointed out, the decision to put his name out there now could be that in this year's free agent market there is Cliff Lee and then no one (think Bruce Chen multi-year deal). Also, the fact that Cliff Lee is out there points to just how valuable Zack is, from 2008-2010 they have almost identical values; while Zack hasn't shown the ability to annihilate teams in the postseason like Lee, Lee is the only one to miss significant time due to injury during that time period and Zack is 5 years younger. So essentially you get someone as valuable as Cliff Lee, but you save $120-$150 MILLION and only give-up a few 20-year-old minor league players who may or may not pan out. Also the fact that Greinke is so cheap means that almost everyone except for the Pirates (and whomever isn't on his no-trade clause) will be able to make offers, whereas if you gamble that he will be the same Zack next year and wait to make the deal until next season's trade deadline when some teams have already been eliminated you don't have the same field to choose from. Basically, you can survey the top minor league players in almost every organization in baseball and say you want A,B,C, D and let the games begin. In the Lee sweepstakes it will be 2 or 3 teams bidding against each other for something that they can't help but to overpay for. However, in the Greinke trade talks the respective teams will most likely have similar chances of the payoff working out in their favor; the Royals will have more upside, but but an equally great downside, ie all prospects bust. Meanwhile, the other team will take less risk by getting a valuable proven, young player for two years at a good price, but they may give up a pair of good young players that would have cost nothing and Zack doesn't lead their team to the playoffs over the next two seasons. But this is the dilemma; do you hold on to Zack and hope that he can fill some seats next season and/or be worth the same or more at next year's deadline or do you get max value for him now and hope that the players pan-out. Forgetting about the risk for injury, which is most likely the only thing that would make him worth significantly less next summer, you have to ask how much more is Zack worth now as opposed to during the season? How much will it adversely affect the current team and fans? And, most importantly, can we actually get what he is worth?
Zack's Value: In terms of what the haul should be, this is really a difficult question and extremely difficult to quantify because of what the Royals will presumably be looking for. In all likelihood the Royals will not be looking for another proven star or semi-star player, this would be the only fair way to evaluate the true worth of Greinke; lets just say the Royals could get a proven position player at about half Greinke's value but at 1/3 of the cost and then another cheap 5th starter or a solid prospect, but also the least likely to happen. Going around the league and looking for these types of combinations would be fun and I'm sure you could find one on just about every baseball team (check out this proposal for example). However, I imagine that the Royals are looking to really cash in on big time prospects who are ready to hit the big leagues, but who will also be making the league min for a few years. This is where it gets cloudy when trying to determine what he's really worth: is it two big-time prospects plus three other mid grade prospects, is it one super big-time prospect, a good prospect and two mid-graders, is it two super big-timers and another marginal guy??? This goes back to the first point about timing and judging if he is actually worth that extra prospect now as opposed to next July, which is almost impossible to surmise. You could break down all of the Cliff Lee trades and see what his worth was, but most of the results of those trades are still out to jury, although you could look at what the Rangers gave up this deadline and say that Zack will still be worth a top level prospect even a year and a half from now. When dealing with prospects you will always find yourself in this situation and the goal is really to give yourself a 60/40 advantage, no matter who the prospect is there will still be a great chance for them to fail, so you need to get several in order to cut those chances down, but the more you take the less you will get on the high end. This is Cy young winner, 27-year-old Zack Greinke we are talking about, but then again he is just one man and through the last three seasons of his greatness the Royals have never come close to a .500 season.
If the PBR controlled the Royals: So now its the offseason and we get to play GM, which is after all is why we would waste all of this time over a seemingly unanswerable question (or pointless, depending on your viewpoint). The bottom line is that Zack is too valuable, in terms of prospects, to trade right now. If Zack could bring in two major league ready pitchers right now and another prospect or a couple of proven, cheap, position players then it might be wise to pull the trigger and add quality depth. As it stands the Royals are in a somewhat enviable position of being able to almost completely dismiss the 2011 season as a Spring, Summer and early Fall Training camp, they are stacked with players for next season - not good ones, but ones that deserve a shot at showing how mediocre and below average they are and then you can begin the real youth movement after the all-star game and look forward to the 2012 all-star game at The K. Zack will always be worth top prospects, just how many is not really that important because all of them have, more or less, the same opportunity to fail so you're gambling with the predictability of the success of 20-year-old kids (not an exact science). If you wait until next season you might lose one good one or a couple of decent ones, but if it is prospects you need then you will get them. Plus it gives you the advantage of being able to see what Zack's worth is to the club, maybe things fall in to place and the Royals can make a run at .500 and Zack gets his Cy-young back (which might make him worth more) and the seats fill up at the K and he gets to have a farewell tour as Royal or pledge his allegiance to the club for their forthcoming glory years. Also, lets say that on the off chance the Royals suck again next year and for example DeJesus gets traded and/or Alex Gordon is a total bust, then you can know that what you need is an impact corner outfielder and take the best one in baseball because some other team is desperate to make the playoffs.
Right now it just seems anti-climactic to trade Greinke, unless you want to turn him into a pair of proven players, there doesn't seem to be a real advantage to shipping him off now versus next summer. Getting a haul of prospects now just doesn't feel right, if you are tired of babying Zack and want to move on then take the best two proven major league players available, but don't give us more prospects. Also, from a selfish perspective, we want to seem him pitch in a Royals uniform again. However, this should add some excitement to an offseason that was shaping up to be the most boring in the history of the Royals.
Wednesday, October 6, 2010
25 years and counting
The Royals last and final game of the year might have been as bad of a way to end a season as is humanly possible, but of course that is the way you expect it to go down if you've watched these guys all year. Now it's all over but the shouting...so lets shout:
Top 10 complaints about the 2010 Royals
1. The more things change, the more they stay the same. As I rejoiced at the departure of unwanted veterans from S. Pods to J. Kendall and finally Lil' Wil Bloomquist, I saw a team that I did actually want to win and could root for, but in the end they just didn't have it. We're all hoping that this is the start of new era in KC Royals baseball and now that those past 25 years are out of the way we'll be playing at this time of the year, or at least waiting until this time of the year to talk about the Chiefs and College football.
2. Pitchers with ERAs north of 5.50:
That is A LOT of names, while some pitched more than others, this is just too long of a list with way too many crooked ERAs. It was a very bad year for Royals pitching, with the one exception of Joakim Soria, no one gets a free pass; Zach should have been better and slightly less apathetic about his plight, Hochevar needs to make 30 starts and just the fact that we are talking about needing to resign Bruce Chen is not a good sign. Stability is a fairly good indicator of how your pitching staff is doing and looking back at some of those names you can trace our season's failure through a lineage of failed relievers and spot starters and get a picture of how bad the year was for this group.
3. "The Player Who Wouldn't Go Away: The Jose Guillen Saga" Watching this unfold was like watching your least favorite movie of all time, while someone scratches their nails on a chalk board and at the same time a landscaping crew is running multiple weed eaters and leaf blowers outside the window. You just wanted it to end, Jose is another in a long history of bad free agent signings by the Royals and by him having a decent year and the Royals trying everything in their power to trade him, it was just pathetic and became a serious drag on the season in a season that did not lack for reasons not to be interested.
4. Still no power. Since 2005 the Royals have finished, 14th, 14th, 14th,13th,13th and 12th, respectively, in the AL (out of 14) in home runs hit! Give me all of the Bob Costas monologues about great pitchers duels you want, but as a fan I want to see balls flying over the fence, that is from players wearing our jerseys. Jose Guillen played his last game for the Royals on August 4th and in two full months no one could overtake him as the team's home run leader, it took an unprecedented late season charge by Yuni just to tie him. Blame it on the stadium, the players or whatever just give us a few guys on the team who pitchers have to take seriously at the plate.
5. The 2010-2011 offseason. At least before we could sit around and talk about who we could get in the offseason, who we should trade or wait around to ridicule whatever decision was made by management. However, this year will probably be different and if the Royals do anything bigger than offer a slew of minor league contracts or resign Bruce Chen, it will be deemed exciting. Not that I'm complaining about not signing anymore Jason Kendalls, but there literally might be nothing to discuss as a Royals fan until opening day 2011.
6. Brian Bannister. He has given us some hope, seems like such a nice guy and we wanted him to be a successful Royals player, but his second half train wreck of a year destroyed all of that and as a result he may no longer be a Royal. Should he be a John Buck-like victim of over inflated arbitration salaries, he will almost certainly go on to be a decent pitcher next year for some other team, ie John Buck. It's a shame, but that's life as a Royals fan.
7. Minors not Majors. Sooooo much talk about the minors this year; yeah it's great to have a bunch of young guys who are highly touted prospects, but who wants to talk about 2012? This was one of the best things to come out of the Royals' organization this year, but until they are our Jason Heywards/Buster Poseys it gets really boring talking about a bunch of 20-year-old kids who dominate the minors.
8. Alex Gordon. He's got one year to figure it out, that's it. Sorry Alex, but this is your last chance and you've been given the benefit of the doubt several times now. You've changed positions, uniform numbers, grown a beard, shaved it, tweaked your batting stance 27 times, failed to live up to George Brett expectations and on top of all of that you promised us that you are going to "dominate" next year. Well...good luck; no injuries, no complaints about pressure, NO EXCUSES, you must at least put-up David Dejesus-like numbers (OPS. around .800) next year or it's a bust.
9. Jason Kendall. This only made number 9 on the list because I'm tired of writing his name, but he wins least productive/exciting player of the year hands down. Get well soon!
10. The Rays, the Twins, the Rockies, the Padres AND the Reds, what's next the Pirates? Sitting around feigning interest in this year's postseason is tough because the aforementioned teams were in the playoff race or made the playoffs and it makes you wonder if they can, why can't we? It's one thing to just dismiss the Yanks, Phils or Red Sox as East-Coast cash machines that buy everything in sight to get to the playoffs, but what do you say about the Padres who did everything in their power to get rid of anyone making above minimum wage. I guess it should serve as hope, but my Royals souvenir mug is always half empty.
Here we stand a quarter of century without playoff baseball in KC and seemingly as far away as ever. Will 2011 be the promise year, the year we see underachievers achieve, the hyped rookies surface at the majors and all live up to expectations, a David DeJesus and the Miracles type season? Or will we be looking forward to the most pathetic, inept group of guys ever assembled on a baseball field? Fortunately, we've got a lot of time to think about it.
Top 10 complaints about the 2010 Royals
1. The more things change, the more they stay the same. As I rejoiced at the departure of unwanted veterans from S. Pods to J. Kendall and finally Lil' Wil Bloomquist, I saw a team that I did actually want to win and could root for, but in the end they just didn't have it. We're all hoping that this is the start of new era in KC Royals baseball and now that those past 25 years are out of the way we'll be playing at this time of the year, or at least waiting until this time of the year to talk about the Chiefs and College football.
2. Pitchers with ERAs north of 5.50:
| ERA ▴ | |
|---|---|
| Josh Rupe | 5.59 |
| Gil Meche | 5.69 |
| Jesse Chavez | 5.88 |
| Sean O'Sullivan | 6.11 |
| Bryan Bullington | 6.12 |
| Brian Bannister | 6.34 |
| Brad Thompson | 6.41 |
| Greg Holland | 6.75 |
| Anthony Lerew | 8.54 |
| Victor Marte | 9.76 |
| Roman Colon | 18.00 |
| Luis Mendoza | 22.50 |
3. "The Player Who Wouldn't Go Away: The Jose Guillen Saga" Watching this unfold was like watching your least favorite movie of all time, while someone scratches their nails on a chalk board and at the same time a landscaping crew is running multiple weed eaters and leaf blowers outside the window. You just wanted it to end, Jose is another in a long history of bad free agent signings by the Royals and by him having a decent year and the Royals trying everything in their power to trade him, it was just pathetic and became a serious drag on the season in a season that did not lack for reasons not to be interested.
4. Still no power. Since 2005 the Royals have finished, 14th, 14th, 14th,13th,13th and 12th, respectively, in the AL (out of 14) in home runs hit! Give me all of the Bob Costas monologues about great pitchers duels you want, but as a fan I want to see balls flying over the fence, that is from players wearing our jerseys. Jose Guillen played his last game for the Royals on August 4th and in two full months no one could overtake him as the team's home run leader, it took an unprecedented late season charge by Yuni just to tie him. Blame it on the stadium, the players or whatever just give us a few guys on the team who pitchers have to take seriously at the plate.
5. The 2010-2011 offseason. At least before we could sit around and talk about who we could get in the offseason, who we should trade or wait around to ridicule whatever decision was made by management. However, this year will probably be different and if the Royals do anything bigger than offer a slew of minor league contracts or resign Bruce Chen, it will be deemed exciting. Not that I'm complaining about not signing anymore Jason Kendalls, but there literally might be nothing to discuss as a Royals fan until opening day 2011.
6. Brian Bannister. He has given us some hope, seems like such a nice guy and we wanted him to be a successful Royals player, but his second half train wreck of a year destroyed all of that and as a result he may no longer be a Royal. Should he be a John Buck-like victim of over inflated arbitration salaries, he will almost certainly go on to be a decent pitcher next year for some other team, ie John Buck. It's a shame, but that's life as a Royals fan.
7. Minors not Majors. Sooooo much talk about the minors this year; yeah it's great to have a bunch of young guys who are highly touted prospects, but who wants to talk about 2012? This was one of the best things to come out of the Royals' organization this year, but until they are our Jason Heywards/Buster Poseys it gets really boring talking about a bunch of 20-year-old kids who dominate the minors.
8. Alex Gordon. He's got one year to figure it out, that's it. Sorry Alex, but this is your last chance and you've been given the benefit of the doubt several times now. You've changed positions, uniform numbers, grown a beard, shaved it, tweaked your batting stance 27 times, failed to live up to George Brett expectations and on top of all of that you promised us that you are going to "dominate" next year. Well...good luck; no injuries, no complaints about pressure, NO EXCUSES, you must at least put-up David Dejesus-like numbers (OPS. around .800) next year or it's a bust.
9. Jason Kendall. This only made number 9 on the list because I'm tired of writing his name, but he wins least productive/exciting player of the year hands down. Get well soon!
10. The Rays, the Twins, the Rockies, the Padres AND the Reds, what's next the Pirates? Sitting around feigning interest in this year's postseason is tough because the aforementioned teams were in the playoff race or made the playoffs and it makes you wonder if they can, why can't we? It's one thing to just dismiss the Yanks, Phils or Red Sox as East-Coast cash machines that buy everything in sight to get to the playoffs, but what do you say about the Padres who did everything in their power to get rid of anyone making above minimum wage. I guess it should serve as hope, but my Royals souvenir mug is always half empty.
Here we stand a quarter of century without playoff baseball in KC and seemingly as far away as ever. Will 2011 be the promise year, the year we see underachievers achieve, the hyped rookies surface at the majors and all live up to expectations, a David DeJesus and the Miracles type season? Or will we be looking forward to the most pathetic, inept group of guys ever assembled on a baseball field? Fortunately, we've got a lot of time to think about it.
Saturday, October 2, 2010
PBR's formal apology to Bruce Chen
Dear Mr. Chen,
As the year winds to a close and there is little left to play for on this Royals team, you gave us probably the signature victory of the year. We here at the Powder Blue Room have been skeptical, to say the least, about your presence in the starting rotation from the very beginning and we would just like to say we're sorry. It was never really about YOU, it was more of a product of the disappointment that our team needed to rely on you as one of its best starters, because of the lack of talent, injuries and ineptitude of the other starters, but that is no excuse. I was rooting for you to get that shut out as hard as I've rooted for anything in the 159 games prior to it this year and I highly doubt anything in the next two will surpass it. The PBR had you pegged all wrong and we should have been behind you and not made you into one of the bad guys, because you have most definitely been one of the good guys all along.
Sorry Bruce, you are awesome please accept our apology.
Sincerely,
The Powder Blue Room
As the year winds to a close and there is little left to play for on this Royals team, you gave us probably the signature victory of the year. We here at the Powder Blue Room have been skeptical, to say the least, about your presence in the starting rotation from the very beginning and we would just like to say we're sorry. It was never really about YOU, it was more of a product of the disappointment that our team needed to rely on you as one of its best starters, because of the lack of talent, injuries and ineptitude of the other starters, but that is no excuse. I was rooting for you to get that shut out as hard as I've rooted for anything in the 159 games prior to it this year and I highly doubt anything in the next two will surpass it. The PBR had you pegged all wrong and we should have been behind you and not made you into one of the bad guys, because you have most definitely been one of the good guys all along.
Sorry Bruce, you are awesome please accept our apology.
Sincerely,
The Powder Blue Room
Thursday, September 30, 2010
Close but no cigar
Going for an unprecedented sweep of the Twins last night the Royals came oh so close to getting their first sweep of the Twins in 12 years. The Royals played about 24 innings of some of their best baseball of the year, but starting in that 25th inning they did what they usually do and found a way to lose the game. Hoch got tapped around a bit and might have been hurt by a defensive lapse when Kila tried to make a great double-play instead of taking a sure out at home. Then Delmon Young hit a Home Run that stayed fair by inches, the Royals struck out some more, Jesse Chavez did what he does and gave up a run, then Ned does what managers do and asked the teams hottest hitter to bunt with the winning runs on base in the bottom of the ninth which, of course, led to another strike-out (number 15) and Billy did what he does and grounded into another double play to end the game. Prior to inning number six it looked good and we were on our way to extracting some minor revenge on our arch nemesis at the end of the year. But on the bright side those first 24 innings are why we're still watching this pathetic team on September 30th.
Home Runs Help: The Royals hit six home runs in the series and we can see that the equation is pretty simple; more home runs = more runs. It takes three singles to score a run but only one home run, okay I'll stop restating the obvious, but the big hit is something the Royals have been lacking all year long, we've had the hits (2nd in the AL), just not the big ones (2nd to last in HRs) and folks its the big ones that really add up. Lets get our head out of the 80s and realize that modern baseball requires hitters that can turn the game around with one swing, the Royals need those players. Yuni and the dearly departed Jose Guillen will lead our team with less than 20 a piece and even though you can point to our pitching as the main reason for this year's disaster, we won't contend until we have more than two guys who can hit 20 HRs.
Pitching & Defense, I guess: Seriously, how do the Twins do it? They've lost one of the best closers (Joe Nathan), one of the best offensive players (Morneau), played a lot without their starting SS (JJ Hardy), lost more relievers and yet still, here they are running away with the Central, AGAIN! Through all of this, they still have one of the best pitching staffs and one of the best defenses and by pretty much all statistical measures we have the worst in each of those categories. Well their offense isn't bad either, but is it really that simple?
The curse of the....Is there a goat or Babe Ruth incident that we as Royals fans are not aware of? The Twins have been killing us for a long, long time now, when will it stop, when can we just be two competitive mid-western teams battling for the division and not on completely different ends of the spectrum? Will Obama still be president, will the PBR still be around, will internet still be used? Lets just call it a Curse to be Named Later, do our best rain dances when the end of the year comes and hope this is the last time we reside in the cellar of the AL Central for a long time.
Bring on part II of the Royals end of the year look at teams whom they should aspire to be, as the Rays come to town looking to take the AL East crown away from the Yanks. Hopefully this is also a preview of what the Royals will someday be and should serve as a nice little test to try and close out the year with your head-up (or as high as you can hold it for finishing last in the Central). Good luck to Zach tonight as it would be nice to see him pitch well and forget about his last outing and end a mostly forgettable year.
Home Runs Help: The Royals hit six home runs in the series and we can see that the equation is pretty simple; more home runs = more runs. It takes three singles to score a run but only one home run, okay I'll stop restating the obvious, but the big hit is something the Royals have been lacking all year long, we've had the hits (2nd in the AL), just not the big ones (2nd to last in HRs) and folks its the big ones that really add up. Lets get our head out of the 80s and realize that modern baseball requires hitters that can turn the game around with one swing, the Royals need those players. Yuni and the dearly departed Jose Guillen will lead our team with less than 20 a piece and even though you can point to our pitching as the main reason for this year's disaster, we won't contend until we have more than two guys who can hit 20 HRs.
Pitching & Defense, I guess: Seriously, how do the Twins do it? They've lost one of the best closers (Joe Nathan), one of the best offensive players (Morneau), played a lot without their starting SS (JJ Hardy), lost more relievers and yet still, here they are running away with the Central, AGAIN! Through all of this, they still have one of the best pitching staffs and one of the best defenses and by pretty much all statistical measures we have the worst in each of those categories. Well their offense isn't bad either, but is it really that simple?
The curse of the....Is there a goat or Babe Ruth incident that we as Royals fans are not aware of? The Twins have been killing us for a long, long time now, when will it stop, when can we just be two competitive mid-western teams battling for the division and not on completely different ends of the spectrum? Will Obama still be president, will the PBR still be around, will internet still be used? Lets just call it a Curse to be Named Later, do our best rain dances when the end of the year comes and hope this is the last time we reside in the cellar of the AL Central for a long time.
Bring on part II of the Royals end of the year look at teams whom they should aspire to be, as the Rays come to town looking to take the AL East crown away from the Yanks. Hopefully this is also a preview of what the Royals will someday be and should serve as a nice little test to try and close out the year with your head-up (or as high as you can hold it for finishing last in the Central). Good luck to Zach tonight as it would be nice to see him pitch well and forget about his last outing and end a mostly forgettable year.
Thursday, September 23, 2010
Stretch Run
Things are just as they should be with the Royals battling for last place heading into the final games of the season. The Royals head to Cleveland tonight to start a big four game series to see whose late season call-ups and rookies are better than the other team's, also to avoid the distinction of last place in the American League Central. While this may seem like another in a long string of disappointing years for the Royals and being 4th or 5th in the division is not much to play for, well...that's all we've got. However, this year is one of the few that you can actually say, hey maybe next year, and here's why:
Center Field: Not since the days of Carlos Beltran have the Royals been fairly secure at this position, we have a rookie who has come-up and made a nice first impression (Jarrod Dyson), and a youngish, serviceable guy we got in a trade (Gregor Blanco) and Mr. Steady Eddie (Mitch Maier) who all can do the job. This puts us in the position not to have to trade for a Joey Gathwright or a Coco Crisp, nor to have to sign a Rick Ankiel and that is a big improvement. CF is obviously an important position and being fairly certain that you will have someone who is about average playing out there next year is comforting from a fan's viewpoint (A Royals Fan's viewpoint).
"If we get him back" (offense): Normally this is how an oblivious fan starts out a rant about how their team just came up short because of an injury and that some decent player was really going to make the difference between them and last place. However this year, if you say that about David DeJesus, you might actually have to pause and think if you had Billy Butler, DDJ and Wilson Betimit hitting in a row this would be the best Royals 3-4-5 combo since, I don't know, but if those guys put together full seasons like they have this year, come next year we might be talking about battling for third place!
"If we get him back" (pitching): See above, but this time re: Luke Hochevar. Now maybe he is going to be that pitcher who never can quite go a full season and he hasn't been insanely impressive this year, BUT he actually could be better. A full season from him with standard improvement and voila you have a #3 starter
Brayan Pena: Who knew? We actually had a catcher who was capable of hitting the ball over the fence. How can you not like Pena?
Hope: This year, above all other (recent) years, blind hope is warranted. Okay so Kila and Alex haven't quite carried their AAA number to the bigs, but just look at them, there is a reasonable expectation that at least one of the two could be an above average player next year. While we haven't seen many of them yet, keeping your fingers crossed and hoping for some miracle rookie to come-up next season and actually live-up to wild expectations is not that far-fetched. There are at least enough of them that we have some odds working in our favor as opposed to putting all of our money on one number at the roulette table we can spread it out and spin the wheel a few times.
Returning Players: The more guys you have on your current roster whom you actually want to see back next year and who are having solid years this year is a strong indicator of how well your team is doing. Zach had somewhat of a disappointing year by his unsustainable standards, but I'm looking forward to seeing him back. No Billy Butler may never be Miguel Cabrera, but I think it's safe to say he won't be Bob Hamelin either and that we can expect his solid production to be there again next year. Joakim Soria, we've commented on it here at the PBR as have all of the other Royals' Blogs and even though having a great closer on a losing team isn't helpful, just knowing that your losing team has one of the best at its position is worth something. Wilson probably won't sustain his MVP caliber numbers through an entire season next year but anything resembling what he's done this year would be a welcome sight. Mike Aviles, much like Pena, you just have to like the guy and if nothing else, he is WAY WAY better than Willie Bloomquist. Not to mention, this is his first year back from major surgery. I could probably go on a bit more, but being that the number of players that you want to see back outnumbers the ones who you would prefer didn't play on your team is proof enough that this year's last place finish might not be as bad as some of the previous ones.
As is stand we now hold a narrow 1/2 game lead on the Indians and we all know that fourth place is nothing to shoot for, but looking for signs of a third place team is actually reason enough to watch this year's 4th or 5th place team.
Center Field: Not since the days of Carlos Beltran have the Royals been fairly secure at this position, we have a rookie who has come-up and made a nice first impression (Jarrod Dyson), and a youngish, serviceable guy we got in a trade (Gregor Blanco) and Mr. Steady Eddie (Mitch Maier) who all can do the job. This puts us in the position not to have to trade for a Joey Gathwright or a Coco Crisp, nor to have to sign a Rick Ankiel and that is a big improvement. CF is obviously an important position and being fairly certain that you will have someone who is about average playing out there next year is comforting from a fan's viewpoint (A Royals Fan's viewpoint).
"If we get him back" (offense): Normally this is how an oblivious fan starts out a rant about how their team just came up short because of an injury and that some decent player was really going to make the difference between them and last place. However this year, if you say that about David DeJesus, you might actually have to pause and think if you had Billy Butler, DDJ and Wilson Betimit hitting in a row this would be the best Royals 3-4-5 combo since, I don't know, but if those guys put together full seasons like they have this year, come next year we might be talking about battling for third place!
"If we get him back" (pitching): See above, but this time re: Luke Hochevar. Now maybe he is going to be that pitcher who never can quite go a full season and he hasn't been insanely impressive this year, BUT he actually could be better. A full season from him with standard improvement and voila you have a #3 starter
Brayan Pena: Who knew? We actually had a catcher who was capable of hitting the ball over the fence. How can you not like Pena?
Hope: This year, above all other (recent) years, blind hope is warranted. Okay so Kila and Alex haven't quite carried their AAA number to the bigs, but just look at them, there is a reasonable expectation that at least one of the two could be an above average player next year. While we haven't seen many of them yet, keeping your fingers crossed and hoping for some miracle rookie to come-up next season and actually live-up to wild expectations is not that far-fetched. There are at least enough of them that we have some odds working in our favor as opposed to putting all of our money on one number at the roulette table we can spread it out and spin the wheel a few times.
Returning Players: The more guys you have on your current roster whom you actually want to see back next year and who are having solid years this year is a strong indicator of how well your team is doing. Zach had somewhat of a disappointing year by his unsustainable standards, but I'm looking forward to seeing him back. No Billy Butler may never be Miguel Cabrera, but I think it's safe to say he won't be Bob Hamelin either and that we can expect his solid production to be there again next year. Joakim Soria, we've commented on it here at the PBR as have all of the other Royals' Blogs and even though having a great closer on a losing team isn't helpful, just knowing that your losing team has one of the best at its position is worth something. Wilson probably won't sustain his MVP caliber numbers through an entire season next year but anything resembling what he's done this year would be a welcome sight. Mike Aviles, much like Pena, you just have to like the guy and if nothing else, he is WAY WAY better than Willie Bloomquist. Not to mention, this is his first year back from major surgery. I could probably go on a bit more, but being that the number of players that you want to see back outnumbers the ones who you would prefer didn't play on your team is proof enough that this year's last place finish might not be as bad as some of the previous ones.
As is stand we now hold a narrow 1/2 game lead on the Indians and we all know that fourth place is nothing to shoot for, but looking for signs of a third place team is actually reason enough to watch this year's 4th or 5th place team.
Thursday, September 2, 2010
September is here, the end is near
This is the part of the season we as Royals fans know all too well; it's September we're battling to stay out of last place and there is seemingly nothing left to play for, but they must grind out these last games and try to make the most of it.
What to make of the Kendall injury - we here at the Powder Blue Room admit we may have taken too many cheap shots at Kendall, but maybe, just maybe he shouldn't have played ALL of those games? He led all catchers in games and innings played as well as stolen bases given up, so finally the the 36-year-old's wing just gave out on him - is anyone surprised? Admittedly, we are going to express some guarded enthusiasm about getting to see Pena for the rest of the season, as well as seeing the catcher we got for Pods, but we won't kick a man when he's down. Only for the Royals is it a good thing when your big offseason free agent catcher signing goes down with an injury, however I'm not sure I'm going to have much to complain about for the rest of the year and that is a good thing. It's been a long time since there has been no old man/bad signing to complain about, go Royals.
Willie's Week - Finally, I could actually cheer for Bloomquist and appreciate what he brings to the table. He gets credit for winning two games with late inning heroics in the last week. I felt pretty bad for Lil'Wil when he had to sit by as almost every other aging veteran who wasn't going to be around next year was traded away by the Royals and apparently no one wanted him. Lets face it, seeing him play RF is just a joke, but when he is used to play infield on a get away day to give a starter some rest, this is his role. Also, when he is used as a pinch runner in the bottom of the ninth for a much slower player, this too is where he has some value. In both of those occasions he was the hero and won the games for the Royals, this was a great way to go out, we wish you the best in the future Willie - so long as you don't start one game for the Royals next year.
Welcome Back Mr. Meche - Last night we saw Gil for the first time in a while and he actually looked good for the first time in a LONG time. Who knows how this experiment will go, and who knows who is to blame for ruining his arm, but if this works out and he can be a decent reliever for the whole year next season, then Gil will be remembered fondly as a Royal. Incidentally, this may have the added advantage of preventing the Royals from signing a free agent relief pitcher - between Soria and Meche we'll have $16 mil already.
Alex & Kila - We would still like to see a lot more, I know there have been a few brief flashes of potential and we've got to be a little more patient, but this is your time to shine - NOW. I know it is a lot of pressure but you guys have to give us a good September and carry it into 2011, we need you two to have some hope for a .500 record next year and rid KC of these painful Septembers. This is the PBR on its hands and knees begging.
Digging for reasons to watch the Royals play can be difficult - judging by their attendance lately, maybe impossible - but if you look hard enough they are there and if you've watched this much, why not stick around until the bitter end.
What to make of the Kendall injury - we here at the Powder Blue Room admit we may have taken too many cheap shots at Kendall, but maybe, just maybe he shouldn't have played ALL of those games? He led all catchers in games and innings played as well as stolen bases given up, so finally the the 36-year-old's wing just gave out on him - is anyone surprised? Admittedly, we are going to express some guarded enthusiasm about getting to see Pena for the rest of the season, as well as seeing the catcher we got for Pods, but we won't kick a man when he's down. Only for the Royals is it a good thing when your big offseason free agent catcher signing goes down with an injury, however I'm not sure I'm going to have much to complain about for the rest of the year and that is a good thing. It's been a long time since there has been no old man/bad signing to complain about, go Royals.
Willie's Week - Finally, I could actually cheer for Bloomquist and appreciate what he brings to the table. He gets credit for winning two games with late inning heroics in the last week. I felt pretty bad for Lil'Wil when he had to sit by as almost every other aging veteran who wasn't going to be around next year was traded away by the Royals and apparently no one wanted him. Lets face it, seeing him play RF is just a joke, but when he is used to play infield on a get away day to give a starter some rest, this is his role. Also, when he is used as a pinch runner in the bottom of the ninth for a much slower player, this too is where he has some value. In both of those occasions he was the hero and won the games for the Royals, this was a great way to go out, we wish you the best in the future Willie - so long as you don't start one game for the Royals next year.
Welcome Back Mr. Meche - Last night we saw Gil for the first time in a while and he actually looked good for the first time in a LONG time. Who knows how this experiment will go, and who knows who is to blame for ruining his arm, but if this works out and he can be a decent reliever for the whole year next season, then Gil will be remembered fondly as a Royal. Incidentally, this may have the added advantage of preventing the Royals from signing a free agent relief pitcher - between Soria and Meche we'll have $16 mil already.
Alex & Kila - We would still like to see a lot more, I know there have been a few brief flashes of potential and we've got to be a little more patient, but this is your time to shine - NOW. I know it is a lot of pressure but you guys have to give us a good September and carry it into 2011, we need you two to have some hope for a .500 record next year and rid KC of these painful Septembers. This is the PBR on its hands and knees begging.
Digging for reasons to watch the Royals play can be difficult - judging by their attendance lately, maybe impossible - but if you look hard enough they are there and if you've watched this much, why not stick around until the bitter end.
Friday, August 20, 2010
Starting Rotation Redux
We had the Indians right in our crosshairs and it all fell apart last night. I was really pulling for Kyle, he looked liked he was harnessing some of his abilities and looked really sharp out there - granted it was against the Indians - almost making you think he had a chance to be a decent starter at some point. Not that it was rocket science, but at the beginning of the year we stated that the starting rotation of Greinke, Hochevar, Meche, Davies and Bannister had to be "solid" for the Royals to have any hope at winning this season. Now the PBR's "solid formula" is still in the patent pending stages so I can't reveal all of the details on the calculations but basically we were looking for a very good Greinke, a good Hoch (or any of the other four), two average pitchers out of the remaining three (I was thinking Meche & Banny), leaving room for one slightly below average performance (I was thinking of Davies at the start of the year) = "solid". Obviously this didn't even come close to happening, let's do the math ((Greinke gets a rating of good) + (Meche at beyond horrible) + (Banny at just plain horrible) + (Davies - the only one who lived up to his billing - at slightly below average) + (Hochevar at mostly disappoing)) = Not good, bad, pathetic; it is hard to apply the perfect word to the starting rotation, but I'm going with just-shy-of-God-Awful. The rotation has been "saved" by the bafflingly decent performance of Bruce Chen and the hopefully average performance of Bryan Bullington. We still should give good Catholic boy Sean O'Sullivan a few more opportunities because he's young and some other good team actually deemed him a starter so, he's worth a shot. But, surprisingly, this year's big problem hasn't really been a pathetic offense - based on the numbers, we are almost passable - but rather a starting rotation that just can't get right.
For fun let's do a little late season recalculation and see what we can come up with to go .500 or better in September - assuming the offense stays its average-ish course - with the end of the year rotation. Again we have to first assume that Greinke will be very good and not have any more lapses going forward, second we, again, have to hope that Luke will be good when he comes back, now who does that leave out? Obviously Luke will be given a spot in the rotation when he comes back so who is the odd man out between O'Sullivan, Davies, Bullington and Chen (let's not even discuss Bannister)? Davies has proven over a few years now, that he won't quite be average, or will he? Based on last night and time of service you would have to think that Davies is set, so that leaves Bullington, O'Sullivan and Chen with about two starts to prove they deserve to stay in the rotation. Of course any one of the three could get hurt or shelled and make the decision easy, but barring that, what would make the most sense would be that Chen finally goes back to the pen. However, having bet against Chen all year long, I'm going to use some reverse psychology and bet that he stays in due to Ned's love for "veteran players who do things that don't show-up in the box-score" (yes, I'm taking another shot at Jason Kendall, he is now slugging under .300 and is one of the two or three worst offensive players in the league). So I will assume that O'Sullivan and Bullington are now in a duel for that 5th spot in the rotation and I'm going with Bully based solely on that one start against New York. So, here it is your hopeful PBR equation for the Royals rotation to give them a good September, maybe draw a few extra fans on promotion nights, and give us a slight glimmer of hope for next year:
((Greinke very good) + (Hoch good) + (Davies average) + (Bullington average) + (Chen lucky)) = 15 meaningless September wins!!!!!!
For fun let's do a little late season recalculation and see what we can come up with to go .500 or better in September - assuming the offense stays its average-ish course - with the end of the year rotation. Again we have to first assume that Greinke will be very good and not have any more lapses going forward, second we, again, have to hope that Luke will be good when he comes back, now who does that leave out? Obviously Luke will be given a spot in the rotation when he comes back so who is the odd man out between O'Sullivan, Davies, Bullington and Chen (let's not even discuss Bannister)? Davies has proven over a few years now, that he won't quite be average, or will he? Based on last night and time of service you would have to think that Davies is set, so that leaves Bullington, O'Sullivan and Chen with about two starts to prove they deserve to stay in the rotation. Of course any one of the three could get hurt or shelled and make the decision easy, but barring that, what would make the most sense would be that Chen finally goes back to the pen. However, having bet against Chen all year long, I'm going to use some reverse psychology and bet that he stays in due to Ned's love for "veteran players who do things that don't show-up in the box-score" (yes, I'm taking another shot at Jason Kendall, he is now slugging under .300 and is one of the two or three worst offensive players in the league). So I will assume that O'Sullivan and Bullington are now in a duel for that 5th spot in the rotation and I'm going with Bully based solely on that one start against New York. So, here it is your hopeful PBR equation for the Royals rotation to give them a good September, maybe draw a few extra fans on promotion nights, and give us a slight glimmer of hope for next year:
((Greinke very good) + (Hoch good) + (Davies average) + (Bullington average) + (Chen lucky)) = 15 meaningless September wins!!!!!!
Thursday, August 12, 2010
Face Lift
The early signs were encouraging; a game winning home run from Alex Gordon, Mitch Maier was hot for a bit, but after that Baltimore series at home which provided some hope that things might get better quick we went on a road trip that saw us go 2-7 are we faced with the reality that this might take a little while. Scott Posednik was the nose job, it looked fine but not the schnoz of a young lady it just needed a little work and the early results are good, with added playing time for Alex Gordon and Mitch Maier we have seen enough good signs to be optimistic about what it will look like after the bandages come off. Ankiel and Farnsworth were a big time nip and tuck. Those bags under our eyes and wrinkles on our forehead weren't going anywhere and soon would have been an inoperable detriment, no matter how painful it was they had to go. Jose Guillen was serious liposuction; it was expensive but that extra flab HAD to go if there were any hopes of seeing a big improvement.
The scars are showing - a road trip where they averaged under 2 runs/game, Greinke and Butler's words, Kila's rough start - and there still remains that receding hairline (Jason Kendall) and lost hearing (Willie Bloomquist) but do you really miss those extra pounds and wrinkles? Are these guys the ones who will do it? Probably not, but it just looks better than it did a few weeks ago, I feel like I want this team to do well and win games and I just didn't have that feeling with the likes of Guillen, Farnsworth, Posednik and Ankiel.
The Yanks are coming to town - for the second straight 4-game series vs. NY they miss Greinke - and this should be a good test, we've had the surgery and hopefully the bandages are starting to come off and we can get a better picture of where this organization is going. We've seen that its not going to be an overnight solution, but we need to give it a chance.
Thursday, July 29, 2010
Rough week
7 games, 7 days, 4 vs. the Yankees and 3 vs. the Twins; looking at that schedule you probably wouldn't have expected the Royals to fair very well, but the past seven games have been beyond pathetic. Outscored 69-25, we were outscored by almost 20 more runs than we scored; that is to say that we averaged losing by 6 runs over the course of a week. Our best performance by a starting pitcher was Kyle Davies dominant 5 1/3, 4ER performance against a Yankees line-up that included the murderers row of Thames, Curtis and Pena. It was so bad we released a reliever with an ERA of 9.76 to bring up a reliever who had previously posted an ERA of 12.00 at the big league level. The week started off when our best player, having his best year and potentially a very valuable trading chip slammed into a wall and ended all of that immediately. It got even better when we learned that our $12 million pitcher, who has been obviously hurt for over a year now, finally decided to kick the tough-guy act and go under the knife, severely limiting the possibility of him ever again pitching another meaningful inning as a Royal due to the well documented organizational incompetence. It was a historically bad week and if you watched any of the games you know that it is getting pretty painful to be a Royal right now; The K was filled with more Twins than Royals' fans, the team looks to be way more concerned about post game dinner reservations than the outcome and yet through all of this there is actually a silver lining...
The only organization more pathetic than the Royals is coming to town for a four game series
Read this childishly giddy assessment of how help is on the way
Bravo to Dayton for pulling the trigger on the Callaspo & Pods deals, it doesn't really matter who we got in return because we won't miss a step at the Majors and in the process we got Younger, Cheaper and Potentially-er. However, even more encouraging were the words that came from Moore and Yost following the Posednik trade. Hearing this is the one thing that might actually get me to tune in for the rest of the year:
You are a DAMN GENIUS Ned! Here is also what Dayton said in regards to moving more players before the deadline:
He gets it, cross your fingers, we might be ending the Willie and/or Jose eras in KC. Pretty please with sugar on top! And just to top it off he added this little confirmation that younger players having monster seasons in the minors need to be given a shot:
Now if all of this falls into place and we get a completely new look Royals over the next two months of the season how can you not be at least a little bit excited to tune in or log on and view a ball game. I can live with one Rick Ankiel if that means I get to see Gordon and Maier in the outfield, Kila at DH/1B and a new face or even two in the starting rotation.
The only organization more pathetic than the Royals is coming to town for a four game series
Read this childishly giddy assessment of how help is on the way
Bravo to Dayton for pulling the trigger on the Callaspo & Pods deals, it doesn't really matter who we got in return because we won't miss a step at the Majors and in the process we got Younger, Cheaper and Potentially-er. However, even more encouraging were the words that came from Moore and Yost following the Posednik trade. Hearing this is the one thing that might actually get me to tune in for the rest of the year:
“It allows us to put Alex Gordon in left field and just left him go,” manager Ned Yost said. “It also opens up a spot for Mitch Maier to get more playing time. Both of those things are important.”
You are a DAMN GENIUS Ned! Here is also what Dayton said in regards to moving more players before the deadline:
“Guys in the final year of their contract, we’ll be more aggressive with potentially moving them,” Moore said.
He gets it, cross your fingers, we might be ending the Willie and/or Jose eras in KC. Pretty please with sugar on top! And just to top it off he added this little confirmation that younger players having monster seasons in the minors need to be given a shot:
“It’s important to get Kila on our club and create opportunities,” Moore said. “I’m not saying it going to happen (today), but we expect it to happen very shortly.”
Now if all of this falls into place and we get a completely new look Royals over the next two months of the season how can you not be at least a little bit excited to tune in or log on and view a ball game. I can live with one Rick Ankiel if that means I get to see Gordon and Maier in the outfield, Kila at DH/1B and a new face or even two in the starting rotation.
Monday, July 26, 2010
If Sonny Corleone Ran the Royals
Seeing how the Royals have long since been in the losing rut, sometimes you are forced to do things you are not completely comfortable with. When a person (or organization) is in one of these pinches the answer you might just need to hear is not going to come from where you might suspect. That is when you go ask someone who is crazy enough to give you the answer you really need to hear.
In the Godfather, the Corleone Family is deciding whether or not to jump into the narcotics business and Don Vito is having some moral dilemmas as to whether or not he wants to pull the trigger. Tom Hagen states that if they don’t get in the game, others will and the family will slowly be pushed out.
Don Vito then turns and asks Mr. Sonny Corleone “what he thinks”. This would be like asking Kyle Farnsworth if the US should double up on the surge in Afghanistan and how that might affect future relations with Iran in conjunction with the Chinese currency peg. Sonny Corleone is usually not who you want answering the red phone at 2 am. So while smacking on some macadamia nuts and licking his fingers Sonny replies;
“There’s a lot of money in that white powder, pops”
Well, the Powder Blue Room is going to put on a white muscle undershit, a pair of suspenders, grab a little brandy and “sweat it out a little bit” as Dayton Moore’s Santino Corleone.
And the message is this,
“There’s a lot of money in those closers, Dayton”
Don Dayton needs to move Joquim Soria for whatever he can get for him, now. Dayton needs to get on the phone and make some GM go all Moe Green and make a bad, bad, bad, decision. No closer (save Mariano Rivera) lasts very long, 2-4 years seems to be the going rate, and good closers can be as close to white powder as anything on the baseball market. GM’s pay dearly for something that gets them nothing more than a quick jolt. They are a great quick fix for a team in need. Trade for one on Tuesday and get a save on Wednesday (look fans your GM is such a wheeler dealer). A quick fix you really regret next season.
In fact, Don Dayton knows this powder business pretty well. He unloaded Octavio Dotel on the Braves right before his pitching arm fell off. He basically received nothing more than a long term option on Kyle Davies, but in the crapshoot of baseball, Kyle Davies could have hit paydirt. Octavio Dotel really didn't do anything for the Royals at that point and Don Dayton made one the better pulls during his tenure as head of the Royals Family.
The reality is that very few pitchers are good enough to fool hitters as a closer for over 2-4 years. The trick is to flip the value before everyone else figures this out. The Powder Blue Room would like to go on the record and say that Soria will begin to fade big time by the middle of next year. Bill James figured out long ago what happens when a player or pitcher looses a step (or mph). If you throw 98 mph and loose a couple of miles on the old speedball you can reinvent yourself as some who throws 92 mph, heck even 88 mph. The moral being you still have a major league fastball.
This is similar to an overhyped sophomore college basketball player who has to listen to Dick Vitale tell him “he’s not ready for the NBA” and that “another year of school” would do this and that. But what Dick doesn’t like to admit is that you leave school when the scouts think you are ready. If you stick around long enough you lose all the glory and financial promise that accompanies “potential”. You better get into the league before they realize you aren’t going to get any better.
Soria has some mechanical flaws that we will not Tom Emanski you to death with right now, but they do certainly exist. The right arm of the Mexicutioner is treading on thin ice. But the bottom line is that the Royals need three-run homers, two-out doubles and outfielders that run down balls in the gap way more than they need Saturday afternoon 7-4 trash saves. The Royals “needing” a good closer is like a person on food stamps having a Monet “Waterlillies”. The piece of art is nice, it certainly has value, is dang pretty but doesn’t do you a whole lot of good when you are hungry. The Monet is probably better off on the Sotheby’s trading block and money in your pocket. If and when the Royals are in a position that a Monet (closer) would look good on the wall, they can quickly assume the roll of purchaser of Sonny Corleone’s powder.
Dayton, pops, my man, trust your wartime consigliere, The Powder Blue Room, and move the Mexicutioner. When Team Corleone was discussing what would happen after the shooting and possible death of Don Vito, Tom Hagan said “if we loose the old man, we will slowly loose all our power”.
Well, Kansas City lost their old man (Ewing Kauffman) a while ago. Don Kauffman didn’t need to get into the white powder because he made his own legal kind with Marion Laboratories. The Royals don’t have the Don around anymore and Dan or David Glass, ahem, do not qualify. Dayton, you don’t have much, and Joakim Soria isn’t going to do you anything next year. Just move him for biggest sucker bet you can and hope you’ve got a Micheal Corleone somewhere in the organization to figure it out later.
In the Godfather, the Corleone Family is deciding whether or not to jump into the narcotics business and Don Vito is having some moral dilemmas as to whether or not he wants to pull the trigger. Tom Hagen states that if they don’t get in the game, others will and the family will slowly be pushed out.
Don Vito then turns and asks Mr. Sonny Corleone “what he thinks”. This would be like asking Kyle Farnsworth if the US should double up on the surge in Afghanistan and how that might affect future relations with Iran in conjunction with the Chinese currency peg. Sonny Corleone is usually not who you want answering the red phone at 2 am. So while smacking on some macadamia nuts and licking his fingers Sonny replies;
“There’s a lot of money in that white powder, pops”
Well, the Powder Blue Room is going to put on a white muscle undershit, a pair of suspenders, grab a little brandy and “sweat it out a little bit” as Dayton Moore’s Santino Corleone.
And the message is this,
“There’s a lot of money in those closers, Dayton”
Don Dayton needs to move Joquim Soria for whatever he can get for him, now. Dayton needs to get on the phone and make some GM go all Moe Green and make a bad, bad, bad, decision. No closer (save Mariano Rivera) lasts very long, 2-4 years seems to be the going rate, and good closers can be as close to white powder as anything on the baseball market. GM’s pay dearly for something that gets them nothing more than a quick jolt. They are a great quick fix for a team in need. Trade for one on Tuesday and get a save on Wednesday (look fans your GM is such a wheeler dealer). A quick fix you really regret next season.
In fact, Don Dayton knows this powder business pretty well. He unloaded Octavio Dotel on the Braves right before his pitching arm fell off. He basically received nothing more than a long term option on Kyle Davies, but in the crapshoot of baseball, Kyle Davies could have hit paydirt. Octavio Dotel really didn't do anything for the Royals at that point and Don Dayton made one the better pulls during his tenure as head of the Royals Family.
The reality is that very few pitchers are good enough to fool hitters as a closer for over 2-4 years. The trick is to flip the value before everyone else figures this out. The Powder Blue Room would like to go on the record and say that Soria will begin to fade big time by the middle of next year. Bill James figured out long ago what happens when a player or pitcher looses a step (or mph). If you throw 98 mph and loose a couple of miles on the old speedball you can reinvent yourself as some who throws 92 mph, heck even 88 mph. The moral being you still have a major league fastball.
This is similar to an overhyped sophomore college basketball player who has to listen to Dick Vitale tell him “he’s not ready for the NBA” and that “another year of school” would do this and that. But what Dick doesn’t like to admit is that you leave school when the scouts think you are ready. If you stick around long enough you lose all the glory and financial promise that accompanies “potential”. You better get into the league before they realize you aren’t going to get any better.
Soria has some mechanical flaws that we will not Tom Emanski you to death with right now, but they do certainly exist. The right arm of the Mexicutioner is treading on thin ice. But the bottom line is that the Royals need three-run homers, two-out doubles and outfielders that run down balls in the gap way more than they need Saturday afternoon 7-4 trash saves. The Royals “needing” a good closer is like a person on food stamps having a Monet “Waterlillies”. The piece of art is nice, it certainly has value, is dang pretty but doesn’t do you a whole lot of good when you are hungry. The Monet is probably better off on the Sotheby’s trading block and money in your pocket. If and when the Royals are in a position that a Monet (closer) would look good on the wall, they can quickly assume the roll of purchaser of Sonny Corleone’s powder.
Dayton, pops, my man, trust your wartime consigliere, The Powder Blue Room, and move the Mexicutioner. When Team Corleone was discussing what would happen after the shooting and possible death of Don Vito, Tom Hagan said “if we loose the old man, we will slowly loose all our power”.
Well, Kansas City lost their old man (Ewing Kauffman) a while ago. Don Kauffman didn’t need to get into the white powder because he made his own legal kind with Marion Laboratories. The Royals don’t have the Don around anymore and Dan or David Glass, ahem, do not qualify. Dayton, you don’t have much, and Joakim Soria isn’t going to do you anything next year. Just move him for biggest sucker bet you can and hope you’ve got a Micheal Corleone somewhere in the organization to figure it out later.
Friday, July 23, 2010
Adios Alberto
Normally reading the morning round-up of Royals' news is about as exciting as doing your laundry, however yesterday might be one of the most action filled days that I remember the Royals having in quite some time. First of all we here at the PBR would like to give a send-off to one of our favorites; Mr. Alberto Callaspo we wish you the best out there with the California Los Angeles/Anehiem Angels. Shortly after the Callaspo trade, DeJesus slammed into the CF wall putting him on the DL, effectively killing all trade rumors associated with him and in turn leading to the recall of Alex Gordon. Of course, this was all in addition to the glorious return of slick Rick Ankiel so lets sort it all out...
Alberto's departure: This can be looked at a number of different ways, but I like to stick to the positives. Not that I like seeing him go, but this is what he deserves, he will fit right in out there with the Angels and be able to fill the role that he is most capable of: a solid piece on a good team. The Royals needed or asked him to be something that he just wasn't quite capable of, due to their complete lack of power Al was asked to be one of the main run-producers and this just isn't his role. What the Royals got is pretty much irrelevant; two pitchers who aren't great but might fill a need now or at some point in the future. The best part of all of this is that the "coming of Moustakas" is on track, we are basically being told that by next year he is expected to man the hot corner and in the meantime Wilson Betimet can get some playing time to see if somehow he can fully realize his once-upon-a-time superstar potential. As I see it there is really no down side to any of this; Albert is in a good place where he might just win some games, the Royals are looking ahead and unlike DeJesus it didn't really matter what we got for Callaspo.
DeJesus' injury: As long as he is not really hurt too bad and is able to come back and be the same, this is actually a very good thing. Number one, it finally gets Alex Gordon back to the majors to see if he can carry his minor league powers numbers into the bigs and finally be a part of the team's future. Number two, we were never going to get exactly what we wanted for DeJesus, there were too many other names out there among outfielders who hit for powers so it is just as well that he doesn't get traded and assuming he recovers from the injury he will be nearly as valuable this offseason or at the same time next year if you really want to trade him. Also, picking up his option and keeping hime will prevent Dayton from signing next offseason's Rick Ankiel. Number three, it will focus all of Dayton Moore's GM-ing skills on trading the people who really need to be traded. I'm sure Dayton was having blast actually being on the receiving end of so many phone calls from other GMs asking for DeJesus, but he needs to be calling them back to say "what about this Guillen kid" and "lets talk a Pods AND Bloomy package" long before he needed to be asking other teams for their entire AA team in exchange for DeJesus.
Gordon & Ankiel's Return: While this gives us a really crowded outfield along with Mitch Maier it is nice to see Gordon back. If Rick continues his return the same way he started it last night then he should quickly find himself receiving one of those awkward phone calls letting him know that his services are no longer needed and the overcrowding problem is solved. JASON KENALL WAS INTENTIONALLY WALKED TO GET TO ANKIEL LAST NIGHT. This was not to set up a double play this was CC Sabathia saying I've got a much better chance against Rick than against the man who is slugging .318. By the way Rick proved CC made the correct decision by striking out, one of his three (in 3 ABs) on the night.
I'm excited, I don't really know why, given that two of the most likable and productive Royals are no longer on the team (for now in the case of DDJ). However, at this point in a long losing season any kind of change is good.
Alberto's departure: This can be looked at a number of different ways, but I like to stick to the positives. Not that I like seeing him go, but this is what he deserves, he will fit right in out there with the Angels and be able to fill the role that he is most capable of: a solid piece on a good team. The Royals needed or asked him to be something that he just wasn't quite capable of, due to their complete lack of power Al was asked to be one of the main run-producers and this just isn't his role. What the Royals got is pretty much irrelevant; two pitchers who aren't great but might fill a need now or at some point in the future. The best part of all of this is that the "coming of Moustakas" is on track, we are basically being told that by next year he is expected to man the hot corner and in the meantime Wilson Betimet can get some playing time to see if somehow he can fully realize his once-upon-a-time superstar potential. As I see it there is really no down side to any of this; Albert is in a good place where he might just win some games, the Royals are looking ahead and unlike DeJesus it didn't really matter what we got for Callaspo.
DeJesus' injury: As long as he is not really hurt too bad and is able to come back and be the same, this is actually a very good thing. Number one, it finally gets Alex Gordon back to the majors to see if he can carry his minor league powers numbers into the bigs and finally be a part of the team's future. Number two, we were never going to get exactly what we wanted for DeJesus, there were too many other names out there among outfielders who hit for powers so it is just as well that he doesn't get traded and assuming he recovers from the injury he will be nearly as valuable this offseason or at the same time next year if you really want to trade him. Also, picking up his option and keeping hime will prevent Dayton from signing next offseason's Rick Ankiel. Number three, it will focus all of Dayton Moore's GM-ing skills on trading the people who really need to be traded. I'm sure Dayton was having blast actually being on the receiving end of so many phone calls from other GMs asking for DeJesus, but he needs to be calling them back to say "what about this Guillen kid" and "lets talk a Pods AND Bloomy package" long before he needed to be asking other teams for their entire AA team in exchange for DeJesus.
Gordon & Ankiel's Return: While this gives us a really crowded outfield along with Mitch Maier it is nice to see Gordon back. If Rick continues his return the same way he started it last night then he should quickly find himself receiving one of those awkward phone calls letting him know that his services are no longer needed and the overcrowding problem is solved. JASON KENALL WAS INTENTIONALLY WALKED TO GET TO ANKIEL LAST NIGHT. This was not to set up a double play this was CC Sabathia saying I've got a much better chance against Rick than against the man who is slugging .318. By the way Rick proved CC made the correct decision by striking out, one of his three (in 3 ABs) on the night.
I'm excited, I don't really know why, given that two of the most likable and productive Royals are no longer on the team (for now in the case of DDJ). However, at this point in a long losing season any kind of change is good.
Wednesday, July 7, 2010
I like the enthusiasm Ned
Milwaukee Ned has the boys headed in the right direction and we're now on a 9-3 streak, 8 games out of first and only 8 games under .500. As you can see from the quote above, Ned strongly believes that we are right in the middle of a pennant chase in the AL Central and while my first reaction was to laugh and ridicule this comment, you know what...I have to say that Ned's got the right idea. While the 8-day week Ned mentions would be one helluva week (the Tigers, White Sox and Twins lose every game and we win every game), still anything positive for KC is a good thing.
First, I'll start off by apologizing profusely to Wilson Betemit and Bruce Chen; Wilson is the power bat that we have been looking for and Chen is the missing #2 starter behind a rejuvenated Greinke. I can't explain it but I'll give credit where credit is due and these two have been big contributors to the recent success of the Royals.
Next, now that we're back in the race we can finally stop all of this cooky trade talk and start talking about who we are going to pick-up for the stretch run. Previously the discussions involved our veteran players going to contenders but now we can get down to the business of which of our prospects we use to get us into the playoffs. So much has been made about our improved minor league system and now is the time to capitalize on all the hype: boys and girls there is a new name in the Cliff Lee sweepstakes. Probably any two of our top prospects would fetch us Cliff Lee and KC is hungry for a pennant so lets throw Hosmer and Montgomery at Seattle and see what they have to say. I'll bet we could have this deal done overnight and Lee starting behind Greinke after the All Start break.
Thankfully we have Rick Ankiel coming back soon from the DL, so we have no need to go out and get a big-name slugger. Rick has been resting-up for a couple of months and now that quad/hammy/ankle is surely ready to go. This is, of course, not to mention Betemit who, if only he had enough at bats to qualify would be leading the league in slugging and OPS. These two guys really balance out our line-up and offer the added pop we've needed to go along with our league leading singles attack.
Bullpen? Check. No need to look for help here, we just had to find the right situations for the guys we already had and like that we've got a shut down group of relievers. Good luck finding a stingier group than the feared trio of Farny, Robby and Mexy; 7th, 8th, 9th Game Over Man!
Once we acquire Lee, our staring rotation is going to be dominant. The Yankees are having nightmares right now just thinking about Grienke, Lee and then Chen. Of course I almost forgot that THIS time when Gil and Hochevar return from the DL they will be at the top of their game and then the rest of the AL can just forget about even playing the Royals.
It's a tough leap of faith for a bitter Royals fan, but lets all have two of what Ned is drinking and get behind this bunch. Being a Royals critic is easy and quite frankly we should all be a bit bored of it by now, so lets try our hand and being believers for once. Ned for president!
Sunday, July 4, 2010
Sunday Night Baseball
You might be thinking there is an error on your Royals calender which says that the boys in blue will be playing tonight Sunday, July 4th at 8:15. However, you would be mistaken because for the first time since June 16, 1996 your KC Royals will be taking part in ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball. After a 14 year hiatus we're back showcasing our #2 starter Anthony Lerew and surprisingly in 14 years not much has changed. Basically, the best we can do is point to 2003 as the only thing resembling a successful season during our 14 year ban from ESPN Sunday Night games. Let's take a look back a see who's the 1996 version of today's Royals squad....
The 1996 Jason Kendall: I actually wish we had the 1996 Jason Kendall, it has been so long ago that it was Kendall's rookie year the last time we were on ESPN SNB. The starting catcher in '96 for KC was Mike Macfarlane and he was very un-Kendall like that year with an OPS of .838, 19HRS in 419PA and gunned down 39% of would be base stealers. So the better comparison would be to the '96 back-up Sal Fasano who put up on OPS of .626 which is much closer to Kendall's .640. Yes, Jason you are this year's Sal Fasano, only you catch way more games.
The 1996 Willie Bloomquist: Bip Roberts is a very easy comparison to Willie, no power, a little speed, plays multiple positions, nearing the end of an undistinguished career and probably occupying a roster spot best suited for someone much younger. Willie you are the 2010 Bip Roberts, in 2024 I will probably think about your name in the same way I'm trying to picture Bip on the 1996 team, the image just isn't there.
The 1996 Scott Posednik: Tom Goodwin - SPOT ON. No power, decent average, steals a lot of bases but also gets thrown out way too much and despite the speed can't play CF. But based on that speed they will always have a home.
The 1996 Zach Greinke: Kevin Appier, just a great Royal name and one fans won't forget because he was one of the few bright spots in some pretty pathetic rotations.
The 1996 Bruce Chen: Doug Linton. Who? Yeah, this is probably pretty hard on Bruce Chen and it appears that the PBR might soon have to write a formal apology to Mr. Chen but I hope I forget the name of Bruce Chen just as easily as I have the name Doug Linton, sorry.
Who is this year's Jose Offerman, Michael Tucker, Tim Belcher, Joe Vitiello, Craig Paqette...? If you've got any suggestions pass them on and enjoy Sunday Night Baseball, because it really doesn't come around that often.
The 1996 Jason Kendall: I actually wish we had the 1996 Jason Kendall, it has been so long ago that it was Kendall's rookie year the last time we were on ESPN SNB. The starting catcher in '96 for KC was Mike Macfarlane and he was very un-Kendall like that year with an OPS of .838, 19HRS in 419PA and gunned down 39% of would be base stealers. So the better comparison would be to the '96 back-up Sal Fasano who put up on OPS of .626 which is much closer to Kendall's .640. Yes, Jason you are this year's Sal Fasano, only you catch way more games.
The 1996 Willie Bloomquist: Bip Roberts is a very easy comparison to Willie, no power, a little speed, plays multiple positions, nearing the end of an undistinguished career and probably occupying a roster spot best suited for someone much younger. Willie you are the 2010 Bip Roberts, in 2024 I will probably think about your name in the same way I'm trying to picture Bip on the 1996 team, the image just isn't there.
The 1996 Scott Posednik: Tom Goodwin - SPOT ON. No power, decent average, steals a lot of bases but also gets thrown out way too much and despite the speed can't play CF. But based on that speed they will always have a home.
The 1996 Zach Greinke: Kevin Appier, just a great Royal name and one fans won't forget because he was one of the few bright spots in some pretty pathetic rotations.
The 1996 Bruce Chen: Doug Linton. Who? Yeah, this is probably pretty hard on Bruce Chen and it appears that the PBR might soon have to write a formal apology to Mr. Chen but I hope I forget the name of Bruce Chen just as easily as I have the name Doug Linton, sorry.
Who is this year's Jose Offerman, Michael Tucker, Tim Belcher, Joe Vitiello, Craig Paqette...? If you've got any suggestions pass them on and enjoy Sunday Night Baseball, because it really doesn't come around that often.
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
Don't forget to vote
Don't forget Royals fans, tomorrow, July 1st is the absolute last day to vote for your favorite player to participate in the All Stat game or if you happen to be a computer hacker we could also use your services to get into the MLB database and add about 1,000,000 votes to Billy Butler's total to give him that extra push. Okay, I get it there are a lot of people in New York and Derek Jeter will be the starting shortstop no matter if Yuniesky Betancourt were hitting like Ichiro plus Pujols with a bit of Longoria on top. However, Michael Cuddyer is outpacing David DeJesus, who can't crack the top 15 outfielders' list. Come on KC lets rock the vote and try to remind people that we are not just a middling little mid-western city split into two states who is so insignificant as to be under the giant shadow of MINNESOTA. Here's the PBR's campaign stump for the KC All Stars:
David DeJesus: While he might not even be a Royal by game time, nonetheless he is having an amazing season and is really the leader for the automatic bid the Royals will get. His numbers are there and he is a KC local, so why can't we get him more votes than a previously unheard of rookie from Detroit (Austin Jackson)? The answer to this probably personifies the current state of apathy amongst Royals Fans but, lets spend the one minute it would take to open up a new tab in our preferred internet browsing tool and click yes for David!
Joakim Soria: Possibly the only other Royal who might have a legitimate case for being one of the best at his particular trade. He hasn't been quite as Mexicutioner-esque as in the past but, still he has more saves than Mariano Rivera on a team with 14 less wins. If I see Rivera out there over Joakim I promise that the PBR will expose this New York bias and bring justice to baseball. Maybe a bit dramatic, so instead I'm proposing a cap on players from one team and whatever the number may be the Yankees will most certainly exceed it. Sorry New York but Mark Teixeira shouldn't be anywhere near the top 5 let alone #2, he's hitting .230 for god's sake.
Billy Butler: Unfortunately, Billy went out earlier this year and made some comments to the effect that it was frustrating to play for KC and not getting any All Star votes. Then people were quick to point-out that he is only the fourth best 1B in the central division. My advice to you Billy is that you should work on dropping some more lbs and switch positions to SS, your numbers really would look good there. You play 1B Bill, sorry but doubles just don't grab anyone's attention at that position.
Jason Kendall: You bet your ass if Dayton Moore and Ned Yost had anything to say about it Kendall would be an All Star. You see they aren't guided by silly things like statistics and common sense and are therefore able to see Jason in his true light as the greatest catcher in the game. Sorry, couldn't pass-up the opportunity to take a shot at Kendall - John Buck I LOVE YOU, I apologize for ever having said anything negative about you.
Zach Grienke: Zach might get a sympathy vote, but this year we don't have much of an argument for him. I doubt that there has ever been a 3-8 pitcher to make the All Star team, as a Yankee he might be 10-2 and be a sure thing but as a Royal he's on the outside looking in this year.
Apologies to the rest of the team but as I see the list is that short. Anyone with very little to do right now, please head over to mlb.com and vote for a Royal!
David DeJesus: While he might not even be a Royal by game time, nonetheless he is having an amazing season and is really the leader for the automatic bid the Royals will get. His numbers are there and he is a KC local, so why can't we get him more votes than a previously unheard of rookie from Detroit (Austin Jackson)? The answer to this probably personifies the current state of apathy amongst Royals Fans but, lets spend the one minute it would take to open up a new tab in our preferred internet browsing tool and click yes for David!
Joakim Soria: Possibly the only other Royal who might have a legitimate case for being one of the best at his particular trade. He hasn't been quite as Mexicutioner-esque as in the past but, still he has more saves than Mariano Rivera on a team with 14 less wins. If I see Rivera out there over Joakim I promise that the PBR will expose this New York bias and bring justice to baseball. Maybe a bit dramatic, so instead I'm proposing a cap on players from one team and whatever the number may be the Yankees will most certainly exceed it. Sorry New York but Mark Teixeira shouldn't be anywhere near the top 5 let alone #2, he's hitting .230 for god's sake.
Billy Butler: Unfortunately, Billy went out earlier this year and made some comments to the effect that it was frustrating to play for KC and not getting any All Star votes. Then people were quick to point-out that he is only the fourth best 1B in the central division. My advice to you Billy is that you should work on dropping some more lbs and switch positions to SS, your numbers really would look good there. You play 1B Bill, sorry but doubles just don't grab anyone's attention at that position.
Jason Kendall: You bet your ass if Dayton Moore and Ned Yost had anything to say about it Kendall would be an All Star. You see they aren't guided by silly things like statistics and common sense and are therefore able to see Jason in his true light as the greatest catcher in the game. Sorry, couldn't pass-up the opportunity to take a shot at Kendall - John Buck I LOVE YOU, I apologize for ever having said anything negative about you.
Zach Grienke: Zach might get a sympathy vote, but this year we don't have much of an argument for him. I doubt that there has ever been a 3-8 pitcher to make the All Star team, as a Yankee he might be 10-2 and be a sure thing but as a Royal he's on the outside looking in this year.
Apologies to the rest of the team but as I see the list is that short. Anyone with very little to do right now, please head over to mlb.com and vote for a Royal!
Thursday, June 24, 2010
20/20 Hindsight: Olivo
Before the season began I wrote that Miguel Olivo would probably be the player that I would miss the most on the Royals 2010 team. Well, half way through the season that premonition is truer than anyone could have possibly imagined. Olivo is the best catcher in baseball, including Joe Mauer, hands down no questions asked. It took a bit before he became the everyday catcher for the Rockies as he was signed to be a platoon/back-up guy, but Miguel Olivo's 2010 season has thus far been ridiculous in every possible way.
We all know how the PBR - and basically every other Royals blog - feels about Jason Kendall; he currently doesn't have one single quantifiable statistic which can even be said to be average. Yet he has started nearly every game (I take back the previous comment he leads the league in games started as a catcher) and now hits #2 in our line-up. BA - .256; horrible, SLG% - .304; only three players in the AL have been worse and one is Juan Pierre, OBP - .315; great if your name is Yuniesky Betancourt but for an "on base guy" pretty pathetic, leads the league in both errors and stolen bases against and at best he has been OKAY at blocking pitches (the whole reason he was signed, by comparison J. Buck has 1PB and Kendall has 3PB). You might attribute the errors and stolen bases against to the excess playing time but do you know what Kendall would say to that:
“I don’t buy it. It’s all mental. I don’t get tired, and I don’t think I’ve slept in six years. I haven’t slept since my kids have been born.”
What has Olivo done this season you might ask? The answer is where do you start; first lets go with what the advanced stats gurus over at Fan Graphs have to say: Miguel Olivo's WAR is 2.7 which would put him just a tick above ALBERT PUJOLS' 2.6 WAR. Slash line; .301/.365/.523, CS% - 54% ; leads the league at more than twice Kendall's CS%, has the highest overall fielding in the league (according to Fan Graphs), basically Miguel has done nothing wrong this year at the plate or in the field.
While a standard rebuttal might be that he hasn't played the whole year or that he is now playing at Coors field, there are only two things that jump out at you: BA and OBP. While it wouldn't be a stretch to say the BA is affected by the field on which he plays the OBP is just an anomaly. He is on pace to shatter previous career highs in walks and OBP and this just can't be explained by the field; it is either a change in Miguel or maybe he won't walk the rest of the year and it will even out, who knows. However, the power numbers really aren't out of line with last year, he has always had a good arm and has been an above average defender with the one exception that he has a few too many passed balls. So make what you want of the OBP, give him a little discount for the BA, but the Royals focused on the PB and thought this made him a poor defensive catcher.
The Royals knew or should have known he was a solid catcher and chose to look at one statistic which may not have anything to do with him and let that dictate their misguided desire to sign a new catcher. Not only did the Royals not want him, but they paid him a cool $100K not to come back. Their motto was get rid of the passed balls and BOOM problem solved. What they got back in return was an older catcher who is one of the worst offensive players in the league and one of the worst defensive catchers, but the big benefit is that they get this everyday.
Something which may be purely correlation and not have anything to do with Olivo, but none the less is worth mentioning is the season that Zach Grienke had and the season that Ubaldo Jimenez is currently having. If Ubaldo keeps it up then you can credit Olivo as being the catcher behind two of the most dominant pitching seasons in the last 20-some years. There are a lot of ifs here but Zach is off from last year and maybe it is simply that Miguel knows how to call a game, exactly what we were told was Kendall's strong suit. Olivo obviously doesn't do anything to make theses guys throw harder nor does he make their breaking balls drop harder and we'll have to wait and see how Zach and Ubaldo finish the season, but it it makes you wonder.
All of this is like beating a dead hoarse, maybe more like a stable of dead horses or maybe like beating all of the dead horses from the civil war over and over again. However, the fact remains that currently - of course things can change - Olivo is one of the most valuable PLAYERS in the game. Not only is he just a solid catchers, but the fact that he is a good player, who plays a premium position, makes him on par with some of the best players in baseball (aforementioned Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Joe Mauer, etc.) All of this couldn't be more embarrassing for management and equally frustrating for a fan. As it stands now, we paid $100K to get rid of one of the best players in baseball and $6 mil to get one of the worst.
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
Strasburg Pre-game
What do you do when you're trying to avert a six-game losing streak by beating the greatest pitching prospect in history? Yes, it is a tough task the Royals have in front of them, so here are some things to get us thinking before first pitch:
Runs: Will they get one or two? They might scratch across a third due to that unwritten anti-Mark Prior pitch count clause he has to deal with, that is if the Royals can make him throw enough pitches to get him out by the 7th. I'm going with one run; a single and double combo from Callaspo and Aviles will keep them from being shutout.
First Hit: S Pods will surely squib one through the 6-5 hole and keep his hot streak going.
J Guillen: Will he strike-out once, twice, thrice or get the golden sombrero? I'm going with two, a jam-shot back to the pitcher and a late inning meaningless single with no one on.
J Kendall: Does he have a prayer? We know he has been horrible lately, but he is a veteran who takes pitches and can handle the bat. However, my guess is he keeps up the sinking average and lowest-in-the-league SLG% battle by not getting a single ball out of the infield. I wouldn't be surprised to see a drag bunt, obviously any other manager in baseball would bench Kendall but I'm betting he'll still get the start today despite every logical thread of evidence going against that decision.
Runs: Will they get one or two? They might scratch across a third due to that unwritten anti-Mark Prior pitch count clause he has to deal with, that is if the Royals can make him throw enough pitches to get him out by the 7th. I'm going with one run; a single and double combo from Callaspo and Aviles will keep them from being shutout.
First Hit: S Pods will surely squib one through the 6-5 hole and keep his hot streak going.
J Guillen: Will he strike-out once, twice, thrice or get the golden sombrero? I'm going with two, a jam-shot back to the pitcher and a late inning meaningless single with no one on.
J Kendall: Does he have a prayer? We know he has been horrible lately, but he is a veteran who takes pitches and can handle the bat. However, my guess is he keeps up the sinking average and lowest-in-the-league SLG% battle by not getting a single ball out of the infield. I wouldn't be surprised to see a drag bunt, obviously any other manager in baseball would bench Kendall but I'm betting he'll still get the start today despite every logical thread of evidence going against that decision.
Opposing Pitcher: Hey Banny, you've been really bad lately so today you get to square off against the future best pitcher in baseball, have fun. Poor Brian, our heart goes out to you buddy; best case scenario is you get a no decision, sometimes that's just how the cards fall. You simply couldn't pair two more polar opposites on the mound.
Opposite Day: Having said all of that, this game also has the feeling where there is so much going against the Royals, that they will win and just make us shake our heads. Yuni just might walk multiple times, Kendall goes yard, Butler triples, no one talks about DDJ being traded, Bannister Ks 10 and the Burg walks 5. Basically the Royals have almost no chance of winning this game but, we've all seen those random things happen and given that the Royals attempt to defy logic in every single way it would be fitting if some how they pulled this one out.
Go Royals, sorry to say that the most exiting thing happening for you right now is that the schedule happens to fall such that we get see a particular starting pitcher who might be the greatest thing since...the last greatest starting pitching prospect ever.
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