Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Dayton ruins Royals' rumor season

After so much talk Dayton just couldn't help himself to a "high upside" starter right out of the gates. This just ruined the next few months of speculating about the Royals involvement in hundreds of trade scenarios throughout the offseason. There was so much potential for the Royals to be the darlings of rumor season with their search for an opening day starter and a wealth of prospects to deal. But in the end Dayton executed his patented Dayton Moore Strike Early Trade. I have to say that I'm a big fan of the trade just for record. However, it still doesn't mean I'm not disappointed that I can't talk about what I think the Royals should and shouldn't do for the next few months.

The fact that I wanted to see Lorenzo Cain starting in center field on opening day has now been realized and with the ancillary benefit of getting a good starter, albeit with a huge asterisk mark. Dayton Moore has loved to trade/sign to get the downtrodden player with upside since day one and this is probably his best yet. Moore struck fools gold with Melky and Frenchy last season and turned it into a starting pitcher and a starting right fielder for the next two years. But this latest move -- along with the assumption that they are mostly done for the offseason -- leads me to believe that Dayton is operating under the prospect hoarding, still one-year-away theory and I'm disappointed. When Dayton declared himself ready to trade prospects for a talented pitcher at the outset of the offseaon it triggered an initial flurry of rumors that had me imagining the Royals with a completely new starting rotation and real hope of contention. But after the dust has settled from this trade, it is still the same old Moore waiting for his beloved prospects to single handily lead charge for the AL Central crown. Melky for Sanchez is about the safest bet in trades Dayton could have made.

Moore's strategy is obviously working but the Royals are still fighting battles and not wars. Is having Jonathan Sanchez in the starting rotation along with Lorenzo Cain in CF going to make the Royals a winner? Not very likely. Would having that along with getting great seasons from Moustakas, Perez, Hosmer, Duffy AND Montgomery? Yes, that might be enough. I guess it is the smart play, but I'm still waiting to see if Moore has the ability to take a big risk. Trading Melky for Sanchez has almost no downside, re-signing Bruce Chen won't hurt you, giving Frenchy a two-year extension can't cripple you and waiting on minor league arms doesn't sink you, but it also doesn't provide you with the immediate satisfaction a long-time Royals fan needs.

I hope the waiting game works, but not dangling your top prospects for real solutions at starting pitcher would just be bad business. Cashing in on minor league talent is the best competitive advantage which the Royals currently have and you never know when the expiration date is on that currency. They are still a winning season away from being taken seriously by quality free agents, and the Jonathan Sanchez trade gets them closer to success if and only if every thing else goes well. It was a good trade, but only if you measure success in terms of baby steps. Dayton, one day you'll have to take big-boy steps. Are we there yet???

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