Let's get to work

The PBR is deciding to bypass a "wrap-up" post picking apart what went wrong and what went right for the Royals this season. I think it's pretty clear: good starting pitching + very good defense + rock star bullpen - substantially under performing offense = 86 wins. The math is pretty simple, the difficult part is how this team can sustain the positive parts of that equation, find some offense and add 5-7 wins to their total come October 2014. This is where the PBR comes in. Now that it is October, the one sustaining element we have left is to solve the world's problems as they relate to the very small world of KC Royals baseball.

Problem #1 - Ervin Santana is leaving the building: The first question Royals fans will be asking this offseason is how do you replace 200+ innings of 3.28 ERA baseball? Dayton Moore's answer early in the offseason seems to either be mid-level reclamation projects or one-last-hurrah veteran types or the ultimate high-upside injury riddled once-dominant starting pitcher. These would be the obvious answers, but we're not looking for obvious answers here at the PBR. These are classic small market team safe moves that sometimes actually work (see Ervin Santana, Scott Feldman, Bartolo Colon) but sometimes don't (see Shaun Marcum, Josh Johnson, Dan Haren). So while these might be tactically sound strategies, the PBR doesn't sit around all winter dreaming about Phil Hughes suiting up in a Royals' uniform. We advocate for more extremist strategies when approaching the market. Thus we recommend that the Royals go big or stay at home. Two years ago the Royals were coming off spending at a near Marlins level payroll, when Yu Darvish received his record posting fee. Now the Rangers have a two-time top ten Cy Young finisher under contract from the ages of 27-30 at a ridiculous 4yrs/$41 mil. That same time period will cost the Dodgers $102 million for the services of going-on 30 Zack Greinke, the Tigers $104 mil for 30-something Justin Verlander, and the Yankees possibly $96 mil for mid-30s CC Sabathia who is coming off a 4.78 ERA. What's the point? The Royals should try to hang with the big boys and shock the world by landing the latest Japanese can't miss import. We all know this will NEVER Happen, the Glass family has done nothing to show us that this is a possibility, but if there were ever a way to send a message this is it. This year alone the Royals can say that they have roughly $18 mil freed up from Bruce Chen and Ervin Santana and next year about the same from James Shields and Luke Hochevar, this isn't quite enough but it's not a bad start. Look we get it, the Royals might not be able to pony up $75 mil now, but they probably could have when Yu Darvish hit the market, and how good would this year look with Yu Darvish AND Wil Myers on the team? If teams actually knew how to just pluck 200 innings and 3.28 ERAs out of thin air and sign them to short term contracts at less than market value, a GMs job would be easy. However, Pitchers are a rare breed of expensive and unstable commodities and the Royals can't use Ervin Santana as a blueprint for future success in the pitching market; pitchers usually don't just shave two runs off of their ERA or suddenly get over past injuries. It happens every year, but if you rely on this strategy you'll never be sustainable, but going bold and looking for a real ace is how the Royals should operate. Thus, the PBR cautions against middling in the middle and either sign Masahiro Tanaka, trade for David Price or simply inform Danny Duffy and Yordano Ventura that it's time to grow up because if the Royals farm system can't produce at least a #2 starter at some point, the problems aren't going to be solved by Phil Hughes. Now lets move on to the real problem...  

Problem #2 - Too much mediocrity: Here it is, you can imagine Dayton Moore thinking to himself that if you look at everything just right you can see how every single player on the Royals gets better on offense. This will lead Mr. Moore to convincing us that he doesn't even have to try to upgrade the offense other than a few minor tweaks. Of course both Billy and Alex will go back to putting up an OPS above .850 and Eric Hosmer is a rising star ready jump Prince Fielder and challenge Chris Davis as the best 1B in the AL. Naturally Alcides Escobar and Mike Moustakas will work so hard in the offseason that they turn into the .290 hitting SS and 30 HR mashing 3B that everyone wants to see. This is coupled with the a priori certainty that the David Lough - Justin Maxwell - Lorenzo Cain - Jarrod Dyson super platoon outfield will both improve offensively and not miss a step on the bases and in the field. And without a doubt Dayton Moore will finally solve his 2B black hole with a shrewd trade or free agent signing that adds three wins from that position alone. And if you even question the idea that Salvy Perez is turning into a Hall of Fame catcher right before our eyes, you'll be whipped with a wet powder blue jerseys for eternity. Combing back to earth, any of these things happening would be great, but everyone repeating the year they had last year is not out of the question. So again we recommend going big. While we may be losing interest in giving Carl Crawford/Jayson Werth contracts to Shin Soo Choo or Jacoby Ellsbury, we here at the PBR advise a Nick Swisher type buy on Curtis Granderson. The reason being is that he might be half the price of the previous two and its not entirely clear his production would be that much less. They also have about equal injury risk with Granderson probably going for a year or two less guaranteed money. He hit 40 HRs TWO YEARS IN A ROW. NO ROYAL HAS EVER DONE THIS IN ONE YEAR!!!!!!!!!! Okay, it was at the NEW Yankee Softball Stadium, but still if you put him in RF for the next four to five years he is a lock to have the best odds at beating the Balboni record in every single year. The Royals need a Jolt Cola/Monster/Red Bull power smoothie on offense, and it's not coming from the gang who came in last in the AL in HRs this season. Yes, Granderson is capable of hitting .230 and striking out 200 times, but he still walks and hits HRs, which are two things the Royals desperately need. He also fits the good guy-winner checklist that Dayton Moore likes and still meshes with the good base running/defense team philosophy. We recently read this in the NY Times or a similar publication:

"By far and away the best 30 HR value on the market", according to PBR Financial Advisers.

I'm not a GM, but I do read MLB Trade Rumors enough to pretend like I have an astute grasp on baseball's financial markets so I can't see Curtis Granderson getting more than a 4yr/$60 mil deal and if Cleveland can give out two of these contracts, there is no way the Royals can claim poverty. Also, getting these types of free agents to sign with us was supposedly one of the ancillary benefits to reaching 86 wins this season in the name of respectability. Finally, Dayton needs to do his best to make fans forget about Wil Myers; that's Rookie of the Year Wil Myers, starting RF for the Rays Wil Myers, officially here to taunt Royals fans Wil Myers.

Problem #3 - Luke Hochevar will cost $5 million: If you're a team that has a shaky bullpen and your top set-up man -- who is also theoretically capable of starting 200 innings -- is locked in for this price then you are absolutely ecstatic. However, this is the Royals and this is Luke Hochevar. A lot of things went right for the Royals last season, but near the top of the list of things least likely to happen was Hochevar's resurrection from leading the league in earned runs allowed one year to sub-2.00 ERA shutdown reliever the next. Also, this is the same Royals bullpen that had to keep Louis Coleman in the minors for half of the season because there just wasn't a spot for his 0.61 ERA. Hoch is just a luxury that is better allocated to other needs, we get how tempting it would be to keep him, but that kind of money can really separate the Royals from pulling the trigger on a free agent bat or getting gun shy at the last minute. We can still hold out hope that Dayton Moore gets blown away by a trade offer and we can finally say good bye to Luke, but after reading some recent comments it's more likely that he is back in the starting rotation than wearing another jersey. If Moore doesn't find a way to turn his bullpen assets into something this offseason it will be  a huge mistake.

Problem #4 - Guthrie's Backload: Guthrie's 2013 season was perfectly acceptable and he was a nice calming presence every 5th day, but it was a lot nicer at $5 mil rather than the $11 mil he'll be paid this season. I guess every team needs a Jeremy Guthrie and I guess with the prices of free agent pitchers you could make a case for him being worth it, but that number seems high to the PBR. This is a very Royalesque allocation of money: Guthrie, Wade Davis and Hochevar will make a combined $21 mil this season (roughly 1/4th of the teams Payroll). Wouldn't you rather have one ace starting pitcher making $20 mil and two rookies making the league min to be a 5th starter and bullpen arm? Sure, if Wade Davis and Guthrie combine for 400 IP at a 4.00 ERA and Hoch repeats last year, they are worth the money. However, there is a distinct possibility of getting a 180 IP at a 4.5 ERA and two bullpen arms that put up 3.5 ERAs, while singing the "we don't have enough money to sign big free agents" tune. Guthrie gave up the most hits in the league last season and combines that with the rare ability to only strike out a batter every other inning, but I'm sure he can continue to survive somehow. The point here is that if you are a good GM, Guthrie is the guy you're supposed to be able to find every year or pull out of AAA, but not the guy who is your second highest paid player (currently).

Problem #5 - The James Shields Catch-22: James Shields was exactly what every Royals fan hoped for, unfortunately Wil Myers is what every Rays fan hoped for. Without Shields the 2014 starting rotation would look very suspect, with Wil Myers the 2014 offense would actually look hopeful. Jake Odorizzi didn't pan out yet, neither did Wade Davis. James Shields is a leader, Wil Myers is young and exciting. The Royals had their best season in 20 years, the Rays were still better. The PBR fully supported the decision to go big last offseason and make the Wil Myers trade, and we still feel that the .290 and 25 HRs Wil Myers now seems likely to provide over the next few years is infinitely more replaceable than Shields' 230 IP and 3.00 ERA. However, if those numbers go in opposite directions this season, it will be less likely that we can still defend the move. The Royals can't afford to simply push on these big trades, it is well within the realm of possibilities that these two are equally valuable this season and the Royals are then left without an ace SP AND without a star RF in 2015. So yes, James Shields being the difference maker in the Royals making the playoffs this season is fairly important. Another year just like this one has to be the worst case scenario; we would still look upon James Shields time in KC fondly as he signs a $100+ million contract somewhere near the Pacific or Atlantic Ocean. By then, 2015 Wil Myers wouldn't really cause us to lose much sleep and a lot of credit for the Royals resurgence would be credited to him. That's a lot of pressure on the Royals, but it's high time we actually expect something good from them.

I think the coast is clear, I just refreshed all 17 internet browsing windows currently open on my computer and Dayton Moore still hasn't made a trade or signed anyone. Hopefully he will be getting his PBR new post alert soon and drop his pursuit of Phil Hughes and start begging the Glass family to sell a few shares of Wal-Mart stock so the Royals can enter into a bidding war with the Yankees and Dodgers for the next Yu Darvish!