In a stirring announcement over the weekend, Dayton Moore admitted (indirectly) that the Powder Blue Room had it right and he should explore trading prospects for starting pitching. While we thank Dayton for his candor, we're still waiting for an official offer to become the new Assistant GM. All kidding aside, this is both good news and yet another possible indication that Dayton's timing will never be enough to get the Royals to the next level. Correct me if I'm wrong, but the Royals no longer have any top prospects that can fetch a #1 starting pitcher? Not to mention, I don't think there is a #1 or even a #2 on the trade market, again correct me if I'm wrong
Right about now is when most Royals fans start to talk about how good the Chiefs are going to be this year and forget all about the Royals (unless your buddy gets free tickets from someone at the office). However, if you're like me and feel that football in August is an abomination and actually wish the lockout would have lasted until after the World Series, then you've got some things on your mind. Namely, with the Tigers series starting today, what would make the difference between what the Royals are now (20+ games under .500) and this series being an important late season battle between the two division leaders? According to my calculations, it's actually not that much.
During the trade deadline I proposed three trades (see Ubaldo Jimenez & Wandy Rodriguez and Carlos Zambrano) which all look (admittedly) to be pretty misguided right now. And maybe they were and will be in the future, but I'm going to put forth a simple proposition which, in conjunction with a reasonable change in fortune, would put the Royals into contention this year for the division title. Here are the what iffs; if during the 2010 trade deadline the Royals had traded for Dan Haren and if Joakim was having a dominant year the Royals would have approximately a 12 win differential giving them a 67-67 record and within shouting distance of Detroit. It wouldn't give them the Phillies record, but all things being equal, I think we'd take it in KC. It is the AL Central after all.
So let's go back in time to last year's trade deadline...Dan Haren was a good pitcher having a bad year (4.6 ERA at time of trade) and Arizona was shedding payroll as fast as possible. The Royals had the best minor league farm system and presumably could have offered the best package to the D'Backs. They didn't (obviously) and the Angels did (obviously). Haren has been one of the best pitchers in the league and the Royals have trotted out one of the league's worst rotation day after day. My calculations assume that Haren would have replaced Sean O'Sullivan and Kyle Davies combined starts this year and made about a 6 win difference (thanks B-Ref WAR). Based on the return Arizona Received the Royals probably could have gotten him for Mike Montgomery plus one or two other prospects.Who knows what it really would have taken from the Royals, but the D'Backs ended up with Joe Saunders and one top 100 prospect. So really any two of the Royals top pitching prospects should have gotten the job done.
The next 6 wins come from Jokiam Soria only blowing one save, this would be a dominant year, but certainly not impossible. Also, according to the numbers (thanks again B-Ref), the Royals have been a bit unlucky this year so Jokiam is really just a scape goat for luck. This again goes to question Dayton's sense of timing since Joakim has gone from big trading chip to borderline closer in just one year. We all hope Joakim bounces back next year, but if he doesn't it will be anther check mark against the ability for Dayton to pull the trigger at the right time. All of that aside, this change isn't earth shattering and can easily be expected to occur next year.
As we all know, the Royals highly touted left handed pitching prospects have all failed across the board this year. If your biggest success is that one actually made it to the majors and has been healthy, then I guess Duffy is a success. However, none have helped the Royals this year and the odds of them helping next year are pure speculation at best. Now what the Royals have are a bunch of "former top prospects" that might not get you the Dan Harens of the trade market. I'm sure the Royals still have a big package which will get you close or put you in contention with other teams, but last year the Royals had the types of prospects to go out and get anyone. This year I'm not sure that's true.
Admittedly, last year was probably not the time for a big move and the Royals have had some bad luck when it comes to starting pitching prospects. But in the end, all of the improvement this year has really come from unexpected seasons by Frenchy, Melky and Gordon. If we can assume that our offense can only improve from this year (Hosmer and Moose, I'm looking at you) then the Royals are still closer than they have been a long time.
If being an MLB GM is also a game of invisible inches then Dayton could make a big move in the offseason and provide the Royals exactly what they need. But I wonder if he has already missed the boat?
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