This might be a little late to the party concerning the Alex Gordon extravaganza but sometimes a little reflection is required even after all the reports claiming the new found success in his new home; left field.
A recent Joe Posnanski blog entry further brings up the often repeated draft order surrounding the Alex Gordon pick, back in 2005.
The often reviewed list is as follows:
1) Justin Upton
2) Alex Gordon
3) Jeffery Clement
4) Ryan Zimmerman
5) Ryan Braun
There is the age old debate as to whether drafting college players (especially hitters due to the literal “material” difference in bats between college and the pros) has a disadvantage to drafting high school players. One theory might be:
“while Alex Gordon was busy running around chasing sorority girls at the bar on Wendsday, taking a charter plane to play Texas on Thursday afternoon, having his “tutor” do his homework for him on Friday afternoon and then hitting off of some other college player with a bat made of materials that would make a weapons defense manufacturer jealous…..
"Billy Butler signed at 18 years old and got right to business hitting with the wood against some other professionally paid player and thus by the time he was 22 years old he had been playing baseball for four years in an environment much more resembling the major leagues than the glorified traveling baseball circuit of suburban white guys that is Division I baseball.”
Except here’s the rub, Gordon, Clement, Zimmerman and Braun were all college players too. All four were 4 year guys born between 1983 and 1984. A quick chart:
Name---------MLB Debut-----GP 1st yr in ML--G.P. in 2nd Year
Alex Gordon--------April 2007 ---------151------------------134
Jeffery Clement----Sept 2007-----------9--------------------66
Ryan Zimmerman--Sept 2005----------157------------------162
Ryan Braun--------May 2007----------113-------------------151
Everyone is quick to lament the fact that both Zimmerman and Braun have exploded into downright major league hitters. Zimmerman obviously got there quick buy signing quick and getting in 134 games in the year he was drafted (which is rare, most players spend the summer after they are drafted attending Scott Boris self-help seminars).
Braun spent two years in the producing solid numbers. Clement was by far the least impressive minor league player and could be labeled just as big a bust as Gordon. Take a moment and scan the minor league stats of those three players, Braun, Zimmerman and Clement.
Below are the numbers for Gordon’s only full year in the minors:
Year_L_G_AB_R_H_2B_3B_HR_RBI_SB_BB_SO_BA_OBP_SLG_OPS
2006_AA_130_486_111__158_39__1_29_101_22_72__113__.325_.427__.588__1.016
These are good numbers, certainly on par with deciding that after a little bit of corporate run-a-round, one should be called up to the show and see if they can be replicated.
Here are the first full season in the majors for each respective player.
Braun
Year_G_AB_R_H_2B_3B_HR_RBI_SB_BB_SO_BA_OBP_SLG_OPS
2007__113_451_91_146_26__6__34_97__15__29___112__.324__.370__.634__1.004
Zimmerman
Year_G_AB_R_H_2B_3B_HR_RBI_SB_BB_SO_BA_OBP_SLG_OPS
2006__157_614_84_176_47__3__20__110___11__61__120_.287__.351__.471___.822
Gordon
Year_G_AB_R_H_2B_3B_HR_RBI_SB_BB_SO_BA_OBP_SLG_OPS
2007__151_543_60_134_36__4__15___60___14__41__137__.247__.314__.411__.725
Obviously, Braun and Zimmerman really gave their respective organizations no argument as to what the term “potential” meant. Braun and Zimmerman also spent the next two years playing baseball while Gordon spent them running up co-pays on his health insurance.
But this leads us to a couple of real questions. Is it really just a crap shoot as to who pans out at the major league level? Does a guy who spent four years supposedly learning his craft in college really deserve two or three “introductory” seasons in the show before “their full talent is realized”? Last of all, were there scouts who actually stated on the record why they would have taken Braun or Zimmerman ahead of Gordon and Clement if they were available?
It appears (and I know this is a negligible sample size by scientific standards) that if you draft right and know who you are drafting out of college as far as hitters go, the beauty of it is that you get a player who is almost ready to go. The next question might be “is it worth it to mess around with a 26 year old who still needs polising”?.
This is the Royals’ conundrum as we speak. There have been the rumors that Gordon will not change his swing and the reason for the demotion last year was to send him a message. If this is the case, then the PBR wonders if Mr. Braun and Zimmerman also had this "hole" in thier swing as a college player. Who was the cross-checker that saw Gordon play at Nebraska that didn't realize this "hole". It sounds a lot like the bank executives that "didn't know about the derivatives on their balance sheets". If Alex Gordon has a hole in his swing, its probably been there a while and if Dayton can't see it or Datyon can't hire someone to see it, the Kansas City Royals are in a real pinch.
The Powder Blue Room would like to querry the people in charge as to why they used the second pick in the entire draft on a player who will require a swing revamping before being successful in the show, especially when said player is a 23 year-old college player who should be close to having it all ready to hit the ground running. Had Alex not been to enough baseball camps by 23 years of age to have that swing ironed out?
This is an entirely different situation than having a raw 17 year old Dominican kid or a wild swinging 18 year-old Billy Butler who needs to work out a couple of kinks in the ball-swing.
As stated in an earlier Powder Blue Room article, the Royals appear to be sacrificing a small upgrade defensively at second base in order to show Alex Gordon who is boss. For an organization in need of real major league hitters this excuse is lacking and trust me it is much more difficult to find real major league hitters than it is find players that will do whatever that horrible Trey Hilman quote describes:
Trey Hilman describing why Chris Getz plays baseball:
“It may not be those standout things like a double in the gap or the great diving play every night, but he’s going to turn the double play. He’s going to range up and the middle and, especially, into the 4-3 hole”.
What Trey is describing would be an excellent observation if the Royals organization were really one of those teams that could claim "we are one player away" or "its the little things that count". My friends, the Royals are "many many many things away" and its the big things that count at this point, the big things being developing big league hitters, the kind that are real Major League outs. These are not tinkering kind of things and certainly can't be made up for with a small dose of "ranging up the middle".
And after all this meandering around, here is my final verdict:
The Royals should tell Alex that he is playing third base at the major league level for the rest of the year. You tell Alex that he may use whatever swing he likes, just hit the ball. Inform Alex that he will play every single game regardless if he has a shrapnel wound or if he was out at the P&L district until 3:30 am the night before (throw in George Brett’s cell number for hangover tips on gameday). Tell Alex he has the whole year to do whatever he likes and you will re-evaluate at the end of the year.
Callaspo goes back to second base and tell Trey that when the Royals have a legitimate major league hitting line-up consideration such as “range up the middle and the 4-3 hole” will begin to have some clout in personel decisions.
Chris Getz just has to deal with this situation or have Dayton Moore find someone else in the league to over values “range up the middle and the 4-3 hole” as much as Trey Hillman (good luck).
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