Friday, June 24, 2011

Stealing vs Acquiring

Depending on your view of Frank White the announcer, we believe that it’s highly probable that Frank White the man is a heck of a guy, a swell family man and a decent guy to run into at the neighborhood BBQ. With that being said, Frank White the announcer is as bland and straightforward as an announcer can offer. We can’t recall any instance of offering even a courtesy giggle to any of Frank’s attempted “funnies”. Let’s just say that after three innings of Frank no one has ever said “Gee-Wilikers, that guy would be a hoot to go grab some beers with”.

Regardless, Frank said something the other day during the Diamondbacks game that was a somewhat original insight or one that we have not previously heard 10,000 times at a 10-year old baseball camp. Lefebre and Frank were bantering about Adam Kennedy’s slide step and how for some miraculous reason Chris Getz might not be able to steal second base (as if Chris Getz is the standard for base stealing prowess…it’s a miracle of God he got to first base to start with). The quote was something like this:

“Kennedy is able to maintain his command and keep the ball down while using that slide step. With most guys the arm doesn’t catch up and they leave the ball up when using a slide step. In my day no one knew what a slide step was, nobody used one”.

Frank played when Kauffman Stadium was large enough to fatten 300 head of cattle (if the surface was natural grass, of course). Frank also played when people really stole some bases. This was what the Powder Blue Room refers to as the Cocaine Era of Base Stealing. Just for a minute take a look at some of Vince Coleman’s stolen base numbers.

In 1985-87, Vince Coleman stole 110, 107 and 109 bases, respectively. Coleman was on 1st or 2nd base 210 times in 1985. He successfully stole a base 110 times, or about 53% of the time he was logically eligible to steal. If you count the mere 25 times Coleman was caught stealing, Coleman attempted to steal a base darn near 65% of every time he was logically eligible to do so. Keep in mind this was IN THE MAJOR LEAGUES.

That is an attempt percentage similar to your average 9-year old Little Leauge game, where this is the first year stolen bases are allowed, kid pitchers crying because they don’t know how to pitch from the stretch and the catcher can’t so much see second base much less throw it that far (wasn’t eveyone’s first “steal” sign a touch of the hat followed by a swipe against the chest….hat and belt buckle was of course bunt).

In 1986 it was more of the same. Coleman reached 1st or 2nd base 194 times. He actually stole a base 55% of the time, and tried to steal a base 63% of the time.

Vince Coleman didn’t really “steal” bases as he “acquired” them, sort of like one company “acquires” another company. According to dictionary.com the third definition of “steal” is:

“to take, get or win insidiously, surreptitiously, subtly, or by chance”

Now the Powder Blue Room has no earthly idea what the words insidiously or surreptitiously mean, but we do know there was nothing subtle about Vince Coleman’s desire to steal the next base in front of him. And the percentages show that Mr. Coleman had a successful rate of over 50%. Ask a casino if the player having a 53%-47% advantage is a game of “chance”.

"Stealing" infers some Ocean’s Eleven type scheme where Brad Pitt puts on a dandy suit, eats popcorn shrimp and somehow ends up in your vault. Vince Coleman stealing a base was true marksmanship. When standing on first base mabye Vince simply saw a mound of white stuff 90 feet away and thought he should get the good times a 'rollin (maybe have D. Strawberry and Doc Gooden out to 2nd base for a strategy session).

Of the twenty top single season stolen base totals, six occurred between 1980 and 1987. Eleven of the twenty occurred before 1900. You get the picture. This all leads to the bigger question. Why?

The Powder Blue Room has a theory and it is based on what was expected of a catcher back when. As everyone can recall, before Cal Ripken and later the A-Rod’s of the world, the average shortstop could shop for clothes in the juniors department and not hit his rear end with either hand, so long as he could field the ball.

Unfortunately, this is a theory the Kansas City Royals have adamantly adhered to for their entire existence as a franchise. There was a small change of pace with Angel Berroa for a year, but Angel never saw a pitch he didn’t deem worthy of a hack. By the end Berroa probably would have swung at a wheel pick off play to second base.

Perhaps catchers didn’t always throw 93 mph to second base. Perhaps the result of the 1980’s base stealing necessitated the requirement that catchers possess a cannon of an arm and a nano-second pop time to second. Or at least the arm strength factor did not carry as much weight in a catcher’s evaluation. A good time ago maybe a catcher was only really required to “handle his pitching staff” and block balls and not be a complete embarrassment at the plate. Nowhere in there was it required that you need to throw greyhounds out stealing.

Then teams got around to thinking “geez, if we let every fast dude that gets to first base exploit our catcher (especially with all the large multi-use stadiums back then, homeruns not being as in vogue) then why should anyone bother with a double….tell Johnson down in scouting that from now on catchers have to be able to throw the daylights out of the ball to second or else this is going to get really out of hand”.

Much like the shortstop of a pre 1990’s vintage, the required tools of a catcher might have changed. Now we have to listen to Tim McCarver say “this guy has a cannon behind the plate”. Well, Tim, now they all do. Some have more of a “cannon” of an arm than others, much like some running backs are faster than others. But they all throw aspin tablets to second base and all running backs are fast.

This has to be one of the reasons that Vince Colman could hit a single and stand on first base and have every single breathing soul in the stadium know he was going to try and steal a base, and actually do it. This is not the same bowl of soup as when Jose Canseco was the first to hit 40 home runs and steal 40 bases in a season. Almost any major leaguer can scrounge up 40 trash stolen bases by guessing right and strategically attempting stolen bases in the 7th inning of a blowout, August 23rd, Sunday 1pm, Oakland-Kansas City getaway game in Kauffman Stadium, when it is 400 degrees Kelvin outside, the catcher is nursing last night’s P&L escapade and fielders would rather not run over to second to field the throw.

Mickey Mantle summed it up best when after Canseco accomplished the 40-40 feat he was asked why he was never able to pull it off.  The Mick’s answer:

“Hell if I’d known 40-40 was going to be a big deal I would have done it every year”.

We don’t have any real evidence of the above theory and obviously there are a ton of other reasons for prolific 1980’s base thievery. Perhaps pitchers just came to reason that if fast guys that have a knack for stealing bases really want second base, then bless their souls let them have it. At some point it becomes counterproductive to delay the inevitable.

Or as Frank White said, maybe it took a little while to develop the counter offense technique of a slide step. Baseball people will tell you “you steal a base on the pitcher and blah blah blah”. That’s true when you are trying to “steal” a base, where pitch count, pitch selection and so on matter most. When you are trying to “acquire” a base, and everyone knows it, the catcher’s arm strength really matters. It’s the arm strength that is going to make up the difference in the runners speed and jump during a base “acquisition”. That extra arm strength is going to give you a shot. That little difference is what you need to get Vince Coleman when the pitcher is slide stepping, has thrown over 2,000 times, and the previous four pitch-out attempts went by without cause.

Our guess is that the 1980’s thievery of bases caused the new modern day catcher that can really, really throw to second base. Vince Coleman might have been like a gambler or investor that finds an edge before the crowd catches on. Boy did he ride the wave.

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